Local and regional-scale effects of hedgerows on grassland- and forest-associated bird populations within agroecosystems.

Linear woody features (LWFs), like hedgerows along field edges, provide wildlife habitat and support biodiversity in agroecosystems. Assessments of LWFs usually focus on community-level indices, such as species richness. However, effective conservation actions need to balance the contrasting habitat preferences of different wildlife species, necessitating a focus on population-level effects in working landscapes. We assessed associations between LWFs and abundance for 45 bird species within an intensive agroecosystem in eastern Ontario, Canada. We used distance- and removal-sampling methods across 4 years (2016-2019) to estimate local bird abundance in habitats representing a range of LWF densities. We also predicted abundance across a subset of the study region with and without LWFs to understand their contribution to regional population density. Associations between local bird abundance and LWFs were variable among species, but overall community effects were clearly positive, particularly for forest and shrubland species. At the site level, 20/45 species (44%) had higher densities associated with greater LWF presence on average, compared to 5/45 (11%) with negative associations. At the regional scale, LWFs had predicted benefits on total abundance for 31 species (69%), contributing to an estimated 20% increase on average. Positive effects were most pronounced in areas with greater agricultural land use (primarily field crops), suggesting LWFs may provide crucial habitat in heavily modified landscapes but have little to no additional benefit for the avian community in areas with greater existing heterogeneity and habitat retention. Species that responded negatively tended to be at risk with strong habitat preferences for intact forests or large, open grasslands and, thus, greater sensitivity to potential edge effects. With rapidly declining songbird populations and a global need for food security, conservation strategies that amplify biodiversity and enhance agricultural productivity through ecosystem services such as pest control, pollination, and water regulation are vital. We demonstrate the benefits of habitat heterogeneity in agroecosystems on songbird densities and highlight the need to integrate local and landscape-level assessments in conservation planning. An effective, balanced strategy includes concentrating LWFs in areas of extensive arable crops, with habitat retention patches where possible, while maintaining heterogeneity through mixtures of natural habitats and pastoral farming in less intensive regions.

Les caractéristiques d'emboisement linéaires (CEL), tels que les haies en bordure de champs, fournissent un habitat à la faune et à la flore et favorisent la biodiversité dans les agroécosystèmes. Les évaluations des caractéristiques d'emboisement linéaires se concentrent généralement sur des indices au niveau de la communauté, tels que la richesse des espèces. Cependant, pour être efficaces, les actions de conservation doivent équilibrer les préférences variables des différentes espèces sauvages en matière d'habitat, ce qui nécessite de se concentrer sur les effets au niveau de la population dans les paysages exploités. Nous avons évalué les associations entre les CEL et l'abondance de 45 espèces d'oiseaux dans un agroécosystème intensif de l'est de l'Ontario, au Canada. Nous avons utilisé des méthodes d'échantillonnage par distance et par enlèvement sur quatre ans (2016­2019) pour estimer l'abondance locale des oiseaux dans des habitats représentant une gamme de densités de CEL. Nous avons également prédit l'abondance dans un sous­ensemble de la région étudiée avec et sans CEL pour comprendre leur contribution à la densité de la population régionale. Les associations entre l'abondance des oiseaux locaux et les CEL étaient variables d'une espèce à l'autre, mais les effets globaux sur les communautés étaient clairement positifs, en particulier pour les espèces des forêts et des zones arbustives. Au niveau du site, 20/45 espèces (44%) avaient des densités plus élevées associées à une plus grande présence de CEL en moyenne, contre 5/45 (11%) avec des associations négatives. À l'échelle régionale, les CEL ont eu des effets bénéfiques sur l'abondance totale de 31 espèces (69%), contribuant à une augmentation estimée à 20% en moyenne. Les effets positifs étaient plus prononcés dans les zones où l'utilisation des terres agricoles était plus importante (principalement les grandes cultures), ce qui suggère que les CEL peuvent fournir un habitat crucial dans les paysages fortement modifiés, mais qu'elles ont peu ou pas d'avantages supplémentaires pour la communauté aviaire dans les zones où l'hétérogénéité existante et la conservation de l'habitat sont plus importantes. Les espèces qui ont répondu négativement avaient tendance à être en danger, avec de fortes préférences d'habitat pour les forêts intactes ou les grandes prairies ouvertes, et donc une plus grande sensibilité aux effets de lisière potentiels. Avec le déclin rapide des populations d'oiseaux chanteurs et le besoin mondial de sécurité alimentaire, les stratégies de conservation qui amplifient la biodiversité et améliorent la productivité agricole grâce aux services écosystémiques tels que la lutte contre les ravageurs, la pollinisation et la régulation de l'eau sont vitales. Nous démontrons les avantages de l'hétérogénéité de l'habitat dans les agroécosystèmes sur les densités de passereaux et soulignons la nécessité d'intégrer les évaluations locales et au niveau du paysage dans la planification de la conservation. Une stratégie efficace et équilibrée consiste à concentrer les CEL dans les zones de cultures arables extensives, avec des parcelles de conservation de l'habitat là où c'est possible, tout en maintenant l'hétérogénéité grâce à des mélanges d'habitats naturels et à l'agriculture pastorale dans les régions moins intensives.

An efficient method of evaluating multiple concurrent management actions on invasive populations.

Evaluating the efficacy of management actions to control invasive species is crucial for maintaining funding and to provide feedback for the continual improvement of management efforts. However, it is often difficult to assess the efficacy of control methods due to limited resources for monitoring. Managers may view effort on monitoring as effort taken away from performing management actions. We developed a method to estimate invasive species abundance, evaluate management effectiveness, and evaluate population growth over time from a combination of removal activities (e.g., trapping, ground shooting) using only data collected during removal efforts (method of removal, date, location, number of animals removed, and effort). This dynamic approach allows for abundance estimation at discrete time points and the estimation of population growth between removal periods. To test this approach, we simulated over 1 million conditions, including varying the length of the study, the size of the area examined, the number of removal events, the capture rates, and the area impacted by removal efforts. Our estimates were unbiased (within 10% of truth) 81% of the time and were correlated with truth 91% of the time. This method performs well overall and, in particular, at monitoring trends in abundances over time. We applied this method to removal data from Mingo National Wildlife Refuge in Missouri from December 2015 to September 2019, where the management objective is elimination. Populations of feral swine on Mingo NWR have fluctuated over time but showed marked declines in the last 3-6 months of the time series corresponding to increased removal pressure. Our approach allows for the estimation of population growth across time (from both births and immigration) and therefore, provides a target removal rate (above that of the population growth) to ensure the population will decline. In Mingo NWR, the target monthly removal rate is 18% to cause a population decline. Our method provides advancement over traditional removal modeling approaches because it can be applied to evaluate management programs that use a broad range of removal techniques concurrently and whose management effort and spatial coverage vary across time.

Anthropogenic litter along a coastal-wetland gradient: Reed-bed vegetation in the backdunes may act as a sink for expanded polystyrene.

We investigated the accumulation of litter along a transition gradient from the dunal beaches (B), to the backdunes (BD), to the channels of a coastal wetland (W), considering both the total litter and a sub-category represented by expanded polystyrene (EPS). Using a removal sampling technique carried out in spring (April and May), we hypothesized that: (i) the total accumulation of litter decreases progressively from the dunes to the backdunes to wet environments while (ii) the lighter polystyrene concentrates in the BD-W fringe where the Phragmites australis reedbeds can have a sink role for this polymer. The total litter density showed a significant decrease along the gradient B-BD-W in both months, with an evident collapse between BD and W. Analogously, EPS showed a significant difference in density along the B-BD-W gradient in both months, although with a different pattern: a maximum in the BD and a significant collapse between BD and W. The presence of backdune hygrophilous vegetation (Phragmites australis' reedbeds) may act as a sink trapping all types of litter in both cases (total litter and EPS). The different accumulation pattern between total litter and the EPS is due to the lower specific weight of the latter polymer: while the generic litter tends to decrease quantitatively moving away from the sea, the lighter EPS is removed by the winds and pushed towards the land, beyond the dune, where it is trapped by the vegetation, thus showing a peak in density in the backdunes. No significant differences were observed between the litter density in the two months (before and after the removal) either considering the total litter and only EPS. This may suggest a continuous supply of litter from the sea, highlighting how clean-ups actions should be carried out with a higher frequency rather than monthly. This may be even more valid in the period of greater frequency of intense weather-marine events (autumn-winter) when a greater quantity of litter is deposited. These are the first data for the Mediterranean regarding a specific role of wetland hygrophilous vegetation as a sink for anthropogenic litter, mainly expanded polystyrene.

Trends in bird abundance differ among protected forests but not bird guilds.

Improved monitoring and associated inferential tools to efficiently identify declining bird populations, particularly of rare or sparsely distributed species, is key to informed conservation and management across large spatiotemporal regions. We assess abundance trends for 106 bird species in a network of eight forested national parks located within the northeast United States from 2006 to 2019 using a novel hierarchical model. We develop a multispecies, multiregion, removal-sampling model that shares information across species and parks to enable inference on rare species and sparsely sampled parks and to evaluate the effects of local forest structure. Trends in bird abundance over time varied widely across parks, but species showed similar trends within parks. Three parks (Acadia National Park and Marsh-Billings-Rockefeller and Morristown National Historical Parks [NHP]) decreased in bird abundance across all species, while three parks (Saratoga NHP and Roosevelt-Vanderbilt and Weir-Farm National Historic Sites) increased in abundance. Bird abundance peaked at medium levels of basal area and high levels of percent forest and forest regeneration, with percent forest having the largest effect. Variation in these effects across parks could be a result of differences in forest structural stage and diversity. By sharing information across both communities and parks, our novel hierarchical model enables uncertainty-quantified estimates of abundance across multiple geographical (i.e., network, park) and taxonomic (i.e., community, guild, species) levels over a large spatiotemporal region. We found large variation in abundance trends across parks but not across bird guilds, suggesting that local forest condition might have a broad and consistent effect on the entire bird community within a given park. Research should target the three parks with overall decreasing trends in bird abundance to further identify what specific factors are driving observed declines across the bird community. Understanding how bird communities respond to local forest structure and other stressors (e.g., pest outbreaks, climate change) is crucial for informed and lasting management.

Multinomial N-mixture models for removal sampling.

Multinomial N -mixture models are commonly used to fit data from a removal sampling protocol. If the mixing distribution is negative binomial, the distribution of the counts does not appear to have been identified, and practitioners approximate the requisite likelihood by placing an upper bound on the embedded infinite sum. In this paper, the distribution which underpins the multinomial N -mixture model with a negative binomial mixing distribution is shown to belong to the broad class of multivariate negative binomial distributions. Specifically, the likelihood can be expressed in closed form as the product of conditional and marginal likelihoods and the information matrix shown to be block diagonal. As a consequence, the nature of the maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown parameters and their attendant standard errors can be examined and tests of the hypothesis of the Poisson against the negative binomial mixing distribution formulated. In addition, appropriate multinomial N -mixture models for data sets which include zero site totals can also be constructed. Two illustrative examples are provided.

Hierarchical multi-population viability analysis.

Population viability analysis (PVA) uses concepts from theoretical ecology to provide a powerful tool for quantitative estimates of population dynamics and extinction risks. However, conventional statistical PVA requires long-term data from every population of interest, whereas many species of concern exist in multiple isolated populations that are only monitored occasionally. We present a hierarchical multi-population viability analysis model that increases inference power from sparse data by sharing information among populations to assess extinction risks while accounting for incomplete detection and sampling biases with explicit observation and sampling sub-models. We present a case study in which we customized this model for historical population monitoring data (1985-2015) from federally threatened Lahontan cutthroat trout populations in the Great Basin, USA. Data were counts of fish captured during backpack electrofishing surveys from locations associated with 155 isolated populations. Some surveys (25%) included multi-pass removal sampling, which provided valuable information about capture efficiency. GIS and remote sensing were used to estimate August stream temperatures, peak flows, and riparian vegetation condition in each population each year. Field data were used to derive an annual index of nonnative trout densities. Results indicated that population growth rates were higher in colder streams and that nonnative trout reduced carrying capacities of native trout. Extinction risks increased with more environmental stochasticity and were also related to population extent, water temperatures, and nonnative densities. We developed a graphical user interface to interact with the fitted model results and to simulate future habitat scenarios and management actions to assess their influence on extinction risks in each population. Hierarchical multi-population viability analysis bridges the gap between site-level field observations and population-level processes, making effective use of existing datasets to support management decisions with robust estimates of population dynamics, extinction risks, and uncertainties.

Fishing lines and fish hooks as neglected marine litter: first data on chemical composition, densities, and biological entrapment from a Mediterranean beach.

We reported first data on the densities and chemical composition of fishing lines and fish hooks deposited on a Mediterranean beach. On a sampling area of 1.5 ha, we removed a total of 185,028 cm of fishing lines (density 12.34 cm/m2) and 33 hooks (density 22 units/ha). Totally, 637.62 g (42.5 mg/m2) of fishing lines were collected. We sampled 120 items entangled belongings to 7 animal taxa (density 6.49 items/100 m of fishing lines). We also observed a not quantifiable number of egagropiles (Posidonia oceanica spheroids), Rhodophyceae (Halymenia sp.) and segments of reeds of Phragmites communis, trapped in the fishing lines. Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy was used in order to identify the chemical composition of the fishing lines: 92% was made of nylon while 8.0% was determined as fluorocarbon based polymers (polyvinylidene fluoride). Because of their subtlety and reduced size, sandy beach cleaning operations should include at least two consecutive removal samplings: indeed, a part of this litter (12.14%) is not removed in the first sampling. The unexpected high density of fishing lines suggests specific management actions aimed to periodically remove this neglected anthropogenic litter.

A cautionary note on Bayesian estimation of population size by removal sampling with diffuse priors.

We consider the problem of estimating a population size by removal sampling when the sampling rate is unknown. Bayesian methods are now widespread and allow to include prior knowledge in the analysis. However, we show that Bayes estimates based on default improper priors lead to improper posteriors or infinite estimates. Similarly, weakly informative priors give unstable estimators that are sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters. By examining the likelihood, we show that population size estimates can be stabilized by penalizing small values of the sampling rate or large value of the population size. Based on theoretical results and simulation studies, we propose some recommendations on the choice of the prior. Then, we applied our results to real datasets.

Inferring invasive species abundance using removal data from management actions.

Evaluation of the progress of management programs for invasive species is crucial for demonstrating impacts to stakeholders and strategic planning of resource allocation. Estimates of abundance before and after management activities can serve as a useful metric of population management programs. However, many methods of estimating population size are too labor intensive and costly to implement, posing restrictive levels of burden on operational programs. Removal models are a reliable method for estimating abundance before and after management using data from the removal activities exclusively, thus requiring no work in addition to management. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate abundance from removal data accounting for varying levels of effort, and used simulations to assess the conditions under which reliable population estimates are obtained. We applied this model to estimate site-specific abundance of an invasive species, feral swine (Sus scrofa), using removal data from aerial gunning in 59 site/time-frame combinations (480-19,600 acres) throughout Oklahoma and Texas, USA. Simulations showed that abundance estimates were generally accurate when effective removal rates (removal rate accounting for total effort) were above 0.40. However, when abundances were small (<50) the effective removal rate needed to accurately estimates abundances was considerably higher (0.70). Based on our post-validation method, 78% of our site/time frame estimates were accurate. To use this modeling framework it is important to have multiple removals (more than three) within a time frame during which demographic changes are minimized (i.e., a closed population; ≤3 months for feral swine). Our results show that the probability of accurately estimating abundance from this model improves with increased sampling effort (8+ flight hours across the 3-month window is best) and increased removal rate. Based on the inverse relationship between inaccurate abundances and inaccurate removal rates, we suggest auxiliary information that could be collected and included in the model as covariates (e.g., habitat effects, differences between pilots) to improve accuracy of removal rates and hence abundance estimates.

Calibrating abundance indices with population size estimators of red back salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) in a New England forest.

Herpetologists and conservation biologists frequently use convenient and cost-effective, but less accurate, abundance indices (e.g., number of individuals collected under artificial cover boards or during natural objects surveys) in lieu of more accurate, but costly and destructive, population size estimators to detect and monitor size, state, and trends of amphibian populations. Although there are advantages and disadvantages to each approach, reliable use of abundance indices requires that they be calibrated with accurate population estimators. Such calibrations, however, are rare. The red back salamander, Plethodon cinereus, is an ecologically useful indicator species of forest dynamics, and accurate calibration of indices of salamander abundance could increase the reliability of abundance indices used in monitoring programs. We calibrated abundance indices derived from surveys of P. cinereus under artificial cover boards or natural objects with a more accurate estimator of their population size in a New England forest. Average densities/m(2) and capture probabilities of P. cinereus under natural objects or cover boards in independent, replicate sites at the Harvard Forest (Petersham, Massachusetts, USA) were similar in stands dominated by Tsuga canadensis (eastern hemlock) and deciduous hardwood species (predominantly Quercus rubra [red oak] and Acer rubrum [red maple]). The abundance index based on salamanders surveyed under natural objects was significantly associated with density estimates of P. cinereus derived from depletion (removal) surveys, but underestimated true density by 50%. In contrast, the abundance index based on cover-board surveys overestimated true density by a factor of 8 and the association between the cover-board index and the density estimates was not statistically significant. We conclude that when calibrated and used appropriately, some abundance indices may provide cost-effective and reliable measures of P. cinereus abundance that could be used in conservation assessments and long-term monitoring at Harvard Forest and other northeastern USA forests.