ABSTRACT
The objective was to analyze the spatial distribution of pregnancy in children under 14 years and six months by Brazilian region and municipality and sociodemographic and health characteristics of pregnant women and live births. Ecological study analyzing the Live Birth Information System (SINASC) from 2011 to 2021 in three age groups (< 14 years and six months, 15-19 years, and 20 years and above) by demographic and birth variables. We applied the Global and Local Moran. A total of 127,022 live births to girls aged 10-14 years were identified during the period, most of whom were Black, 21.1% in common-law or married relationships, with a lower proportion of seven prenatal care appointments and enrollment in the first trimester, a higher proportion of low birth weight and low Apgar score, residing in the North and Northeast. The mean live birth rate for 10-to-14-year-old girls was significantly autocorrelated with space, especially in municipalities of the Midwest and North. Pregnancy from 10 to 14 years of age reveals several vulnerabilities suffered by these girls due to pregnancy at an early age, which is more common among Black women, with implications for morbimortality for them and their children and the presumed violence in these cases, including denied access to legal abortion.
O objetivo foi analisar a distribuição espacial da gravidez em menores de 14 anos e seis meses segundo regiões e municípios brasileiros e características sociodemográficas e de saúde das parturientes e nascidos vivos. Estudo ecológico, analisando o Sistema de Informação sobre Nascidos Vivos (SINASC), 2011-2021, em três grupos etários (<14 anos e 6 meses, 15-19 e 20 anos e mais), segundo variáveis demográficas e do parto. Foram aplicados os Índices Global e Local de Moran. No período foram 127.022 nascidos vivos de meninas 10-14 anos, na maioria negras, 21,1% em união estável ou casadas, com menor proporção de 7 consultas de pré-natal e captação no primeiro trimestre, maior proporção de baixo peso ao nascer e baixo índice de Apgar, residentes nas regiões Norte e Nordeste. A taxa média de nascidos vivos de 10-14 anos mostrou autocorrelação significativa com o espaço, especialmente em municípios do Centro-Oeste e Norte. A gravidez de 10 a 14 revela uma sequência de vulnerabilidades sofridas por essas meninas, pela gravidez em idade precoce, maior frequência entre negras, com implicações na morbimortalidade para ela e seus filhos; e pela violência presumida nesses casos, incluindo o acesso negado ao aborto legal.
Subject(s)
Live Birth , Prenatal Care , Spatial Analysis , Humans , Brazil , Female , Pregnancy , Adolescent , Child , Young Adult , Prenatal Care/statistics & numerical data , Infant, Low Birth Weight , Pregnancy in Adolescence/statistics & numerical data , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Birth Rate/trends , Age Factors , Apgar Score , Black People/statistics & numerical data , Socioeconomic FactorsABSTRACT
van Raalte et al. (2023) alerted demographers to the potential dangers of calculating cohort measures from the "diagonals" of gridded age-period (AP) data. In the case of cohort fertility, however, a minor change to the estimation procedure can mitigate the trend and cohort size biases that the authors identify. With an appropriate algorithm, researchers can estimate cohort fertility indices from AP data quite well.
Subject(s)
Algorithms , Humans , Cohort Studies , Birth Rate/trends , Age Factors , FemaleSubject(s)
Birth Rate , Humans , Australia , Birth Rate/trends , Female , Forecasting , Pregnancy , FertilityABSTRACT
The total fertility rate is influenced over an extended period of time by shifts in population socioeconomic characteristics and attitudes and values. However, it may be impacted by macroeconomic trends in the short term, although these effects are likely to be minimal when fertility is low. With the objective of forecasting monthly deliveries, this study concentrates on the analysis of registered births in Scotland. Through this approach, we examine the significance of precisely forecasting fertility trends, which can subsequently aid in the anticipation of demand in diverse sectors by allowing policymakers to anticipate changes in population dynamics and customize policies to tackle emerging demographic challenges. Consequently, this has implications for fiscal stability, national economic accounts and the environment. In conducting our analysis, we incorporated non-linear machine learning methods alongside traditional statistical approaches to forecast monthly births in an out-of-sample exercise that occurs one step in advance. The outcomes underscore the efficacy of machine learning in generating precise predictions within this particular domain. In sum, this research will comprehensively demonstrate a cutting-edge model of machine learning that utilizes several attributes to assist in clinical decision-making, predict potential complications during pregnancy and choose the appropriate delivery method, as well as help in medical diagnosis and treatment.
Subject(s)
Birth Rate , Forecasting , Machine Learning , Scotland , Humans , Forecasting/methods , Birth Rate/trends , Female , Algorithms , PregnancyABSTRACT
In 2022, there was a decrease in births in the state with 111 fewer resident newborns than in the previous year. This represented a decrease of 1% of its white and 3.5% of its AIBO (American Indian, Black and Other) births. The 2022 birth rate per 1,000 population for the state (12.3) is higher than observed nationally (10.9) but matches its 2020 rate that was an historic low. Approximately 22% of all births in 2022 were AIBO and this percent of the state's entire birth cohort has decreased in the past several years. The American Indian contribution to the AIBO cohort has also decreased as its racial diversity has increased. The percent of births that are low birth weight has consistently been lower in South Dakota than nationally. An increase of 16 infant deaths in 2022 from 2021 and the decreased number of births led to an increase in the infant mortality rate (IMR = deaths in first year of life per 1,000 live births) from 6.3 to 7.8, but this 2022 IMR is not statistically significantly higher than its previous five-year mean. Further, the 2022 increase in the IMR was almost entirely among white infants with the post neonatal mortality rate (PNMR = deaths between 28 and 365 days of life) decreasing between these two years for AIBO infants. Nonetheless, the state's five year mean rates of death (2018-2022) are significantly higher for the AIBO than white infants for the neonatal (0-27 days) and post neonatal periods of the first year of life. Recently, however, the ratio of AIBO to white post neonatal mortality rate (PNMR) has decreased, but increased for the neonatal mortality rate (NMR). Infants in South Dakota are significantly more likely between 2018 and 2022 to die of congenital anomalies, sudden unexpected infant death (SUID), and accidents/homicides than in the United States in 2021. SUID remains the leading cause of post neonatal death and its risk may be decreased when babies are placed to sleep supine and alone in environments that are devoid of soft hazards.
Subject(s)
Birth Rate , Infant Mortality , South Dakota/epidemiology , Humans , Infant Mortality/trends , Infant, Newborn , Infant , Birth Rate/trends , Infant, Low Birth Weight , Indians, North American/statistics & numerical dataABSTRACT
In this article, we reconstruct prospective intergenerational educational mobility and explore fertility's role in this process for women born between 1925 and 1950 in 12 European countries. We do so by combining high-quality retrospective data (Generations and Gender Survey) and low-requirement prospective datasets using an inferential method developed and advanced in prior research. Our analysis shows that the negative educational fertility gradient partly compensates for the inequality in prospective mobility rates between lower and higher educated women and is most pronounced in high-inequality contexts. However, fertility's role is small and declining and thus does not account for much of the differences in mobility rates between countries. We also explore the relative importance of sibship size effects in mediating the effect of fertility gradient, finding it negligible. Finally, we explore the correspondence between prospective and retrospective estimates in the reconstruction of prospective mobility rates and suggest why the former, when available, must be preferred.
Subject(s)
Educational Status , Humans , Female , Europe , Prospective Studies , Adult , Socioeconomic Factors , Birth Rate/trends , Retrospective Studies , Social Mobility/statistics & numerical data , Middle Aged , Intergenerational RelationsABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: The Moon has a noticeable influence on the Earth due to its gravity, the most visible manifestation of which are tides. We aimed to see if the Moon's daily cycle, like the Sun's, affects the prevalence and incidence of childbirth. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we examined all deliveries at the Academic Hospital of Udine between 2001 and 2019. All consecutive singleton pregnancies with spontaneous labor and vaginal delivery were included. RESULTS: During the period, 13,349 singleton pregnancies with spontaneous labor and vaginal delivery were delivered in 6939 days. A significantly higher prevalence of deliveries was found with the Moon above the horizon (50.63% vs. 49.37%, p < 0.05). Moreover, during the day, there was a significantly higher prevalence of deliveries than during nighttime (53.74% vs. 45.79%, p < 0.05). Combining the Moon and Sun altitude, the majority of deliveries were registered when both were above the horizon (27.39% vs. 26.13%, 23.25%, or 23.24%, p < 0.05). These findings were confirmed in multivariate analysis after adjusting for parity, gestational age, or season. We found no correlation between birth and the Moon phase. CONCLUSIONS: Our data support the interaction of the Moon and the Sun in determining the time of birth. More research is needed to understand these phenomena and improve our understanding of labor initiation mechanisms.
Subject(s)
Birth Rate , Moon , Humans , Female , Retrospective Studies , Pregnancy , Adult , Birth Rate/trends , Sunlight , Delivery, Obstetric/statistics & numerical data , Delivery, Obstetric/methods , ParturitionABSTRACT
The assessment of the development of fertility and abortion rates over the last three decades shows that Czechia has reached the top position in Europe with a total fertility rate of 1.83 children per woman in 2021. The postponement of fertility to women's older age, which was behind the sharp drop in fertility to 1.1, has been gradually slowed down and halted between 2015 and 2021. In recent years, there has been an increase in fertility rates for women aged 30 and older as well as a balanced increase for women under 30. In the European context Czechia has maintained its position as a country with lower rates of reproductive ageing. The favourable demographic position of Czechia among European countries is also illustrated by the relatively low level of the abortion rate. The postponement of female fertility to older ages has not been accompanied by an increase in the abortion rate among young women, but on the contrary a decline in fertility has been accompanied by a decline in the abortion rate. Given the year-on-year increase in total fertility (from 1.71 in 2020 to 1.83 in 2021), the initial effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility can be assessed positively. However, the subsequent decline to 1.62 in 2022 is already the result of a combination of adverse effects stemming from the consequences of antipandemic measures and worsening economic conditions, to which new security risks associated with the war in Ukraine have subsequently been added. This has created the conditions for a further postponement of fertility until women are older.
Subject(s)
Abortion, Induced , Birth Rate , Humans , Female , Abortion, Induced/statistics & numerical data , Abortion, Induced/trends , Czech Republic/epidemiology , Birth Rate/trends , Pregnancy , Adult , Fertility , COVID-19/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Young Adult , AdolescentABSTRACT
Population aging is an important and increasingly relevant area of study for demographers. A growing body of research seeks to determine how long-term changes in births, mortality, and migration-the three drivers of any demographic process-have shaped the present aging situation. Using variable-r decomposition and cohort data, this research note presents a formula for the change in the old-age dependency ratio to determine the extent to which relative changes in births, as well as in mortality and migration rates, contribute to aging. This perspective provides a careful and in-depth picture of aging and contributes to the debate concerning whether changes in births or mortality have had the strongest effect on population aging. When applied to Australia, the United States, and several European populations, the decomposition of the old-age dependency ratio shows that aging occurred in all populations and that changes in both births and mortality contributed to this aging. Analysis of these populations demonstrates that although they differed regarding which of these factors contributed more, changes in births prevailed as the more significant factor. In nearly all populations, migration decreased the rate of population aging.
Subject(s)
Aging , Mortality , Population Dynamics , Humans , Population Dynamics/statistics & numerical data , Mortality/trends , Aged , United States , Australia , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Birth Rate/trends , Europe/epidemiology , Male , Middle AgedABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To provide a comprehensive picture of trends in parents' age and total fertility rate in selected most populous high-income countries from Europe and North America. STUDY DESIGN: Data were retrieved from official statistics published by the United Nations, the World Bank, the European Union (EU), and by national health statistics offices. RESULTS: Mean maternal age at birth showed increasing trends in all considered countries; in 2020, the highest mean age was observed in Italy (32.2) and Spain (32.3), and the lowest one in the USA (28.8). Mean maternal age at first birth also showed upward trends. In the 1990s, mean age at first birth ranged from 25.5 to 26.9 years, except for the USA where it was below 25 years. The countries with the highest average maternal age at first birth were Italy and Spain, reaching 31 years over the most recent years. Data on mean paternal age at birth were scant. In Germany (2019) it was 34.6 and in the USA (2014) 27.9 years. In Italy, mean paternal age increased from 34.2 in 2000 to 35.5 in 2018, in the UK from 30.7 in 1990 to 33.4 in 2017, and in Canada, a decrease was observed from 29.1 in 2006 to 28.3 in 2011. Finally, Sweden and the USA had the highest fertility rates, around two children in some years, while Italy and Spain had the lowest ones, with less than 1.5 children over the whole period. CONCLUSIONS: Monitoring of trends in reproductive factors is crucial to gain insight into society from a cultural and sociological point of view and to analyze the impact of these changes on reproductive health and related conditions.
Subject(s)
Birth Rate , Developed Countries , Maternal Age , Paternal Age , Humans , Birth Rate/trends , Europe/epidemiology , North America/epidemiology , Female , Adult , Male , Developed Countries/statistics & numerical data , Young AdultABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: Aim: To predict trends in fertility, neonatal and perinatal mortality, and stillbirth rates to ascertain future perinatal care requirements during the post-war reconstruction in Ukraine. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and Methods: The study uses the data from the Centre for Medical Statistics of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, covering the years 2012 to 2022. The data analysis was by a univariate linear regression model. The quality of these models was evaluated using the coefficient of determination, R2. RESULTS: Results: In 2022, the birth rate in Ukraine had declined to 2.5 times lower than that of 2011. The period was characterized by a notable increase in the incidence of premature births and in neonates with birth weights under 1000 grams and between 1000 to 2499 grams. While the neonatal mortality rate decreased by 3.7 times, there remains a statistically significant (p<0.05) increase in the mortality rates of premature infants and neonates weighing less than 1000 grams. The stillbirth rate in Ukraine remains constant; however, it exceeds that of the European Union. Predictions indicate a rise in antenatal mortality and a reduction in both intranatal and perinatal mortality. As of 2022, the perinatal mortality rate in Ukraine made up 7.72 per 1000 live births, which is significantly higher than the rate in the European Union. CONCLUSION: Conclusions: The optimization of the network of healthcare facilities and resources should be prioritized, in response to the reliable decline in the birth rate. This necessitates improvements in the medical care for premature and low birth weight infants, and efforts for preventing stillbirths.
Subject(s)
Infant Mortality , Perinatal Care , Perinatal Mortality , Stillbirth , Humans , Ukraine/epidemiology , Infant, Newborn , Stillbirth/epidemiology , Female , Perinatal Mortality/trends , Infant Mortality/trends , Perinatal Care/statistics & numerical data , Pregnancy , Infant , Fertility , Birth Rate/trends , Premature Birth/epidemiologyABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Despite the advancement in sexual and reproductive healthcare services and several public health measures aimed at controlling fertility rates, countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) still experience higher adolescent fertility rates than other low-and middle-income countries. This study examined the disparities in adolescent fertility in 39 countries in SSA, focusing on socioeconomic and residence-based dimensions. METHODS: This study involved a secondary analysis of data obtained from 39 recent Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in SSA. The measures of difference (D), ratio (R), population attributable fraction (PAF), and population attributable risk (PAR) were estimated using the Health Equity Assessment Tool (HEAT) software version 3.1 developed by the World Health Organization. The measures: D, R, PAF, and PAR were used to examine the inequalities in adolescent fertility across the socioeconomic and residence-based dimensions. RESULTS: Out of the 39 countries included in the study, Guinea (D=27.70), Niger (D=27.50), Nigeria (D=23.90), and Côte d'Ivoire (D=23.60) exhibited the most significant residence-based inequalities in the rate of adolescent fertility, with the higher rate observed among adolescents in rural areas. Rwanda was the sole country that showed a slight inclination towards rural inequality in terms of the rate of adolescent fertility, with a value of D = -0.80. The burden of adolescent fertility was disproportionately higher among young women with low economic status across all the countries, exacerbating wealth-based inequities. The countries with the largest absolute discrepancies were Nigeria (D=44.70), Madagascar (D=41.10), Guinea (D=41.00), and Cameroon (D=40.20). We found significant disparities in educational attainment contributing to unequal inequalities in adolescent fertility, particularly among young women who lack access to formal education. Countries such as Madagascar (D=59.50), Chad (D=55.30), Cameroon (D=54.60), and Zimbabwe (D=50.30) had the most significant absolute disparities. CONCLUSION: This study revealed that young women residing in rural areas, those in households with low economic status and those with limited educational opportunities experience a disproportionately high burden of adolescent fertility across the 39 countries in SSA. The current findings offer valuable information to governmental entities at all levels regarding the need to ensure the provision of equitable, accessible, and dependable sexual and reproductive health services to the populace, particularly for young women. Therefore, the various stakeholders need to enhance the effectiveness of health policies and legislation pertaining to adolescent women living in rural areas, those from economically disadvantaged households, and those with limited or no access to formal education. Such interventions could potentially reduce adolescent fertility rates and mitigate the adverse maternal and child outcomes associated with high adolescent fertility in SSA.
Adolescent fertility is a major health problem for many developing countries, especially those in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Although several sexual and reproductive health initiatives have been introduced in these countries, the number of births among adolescents continues to be high. The present study looked at the socioeconomic and geographical differences in adolescent fertility across 39 countries in SSA using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys embedded into the World Health Organization's Health Equity Assessment Toolkit (WHO HEAT) software. The study found that in countries like Guinea, Niger, Nigeria, and Côte d'Ivoire, the rates of adolescent fertility varied a lot, with higher rates in rural areas. Generally, poorer young women were more likely to have babies, which made the gap between the rich and the poor even wider. Nigeria, Madagascar, Guinea, and Cameroon had the biggest differences. Education also played a role. In countries like Madagascar, Chad, Cameroon, and Zimbabwe, young women who did not go to school (had no education) were more likely to have children as teenagers. The study showed that in all 39 countries, young women living in rural areas, those who were poorer and those who did not go to school (had no education) faced a bigger problem with adolescent fertility. The study suggests that if people who make health policies pay more attention to teenage girls in the rural areas, those who are poor and do not have much education, they could make a significant difference in reducing adolescent fertility.
Subject(s)
Birth Rate , Pregnancy in Adolescence , Socioeconomic Factors , Humans , Adolescent , Female , Birth Rate/trends , Pregnancy in Adolescence/statistics & numerical data , Male , Young Adult , Pregnancy , Africa South of the Sahara , Rural Population/statistics & numerical data , FertilityABSTRACT
A population's current growth rate is determined jointly by changes in fertility, mortality, and migration. This overall growth rate is also the average of age-specific growth rates, which can be decomposed into the result of historical changes in fertility, mortality, and migration. However, doing so requires more than 100 years of historical data, meaning that such analyses are possible only in a select few populations. In this research note, we propose an adapted version of the variable-r model to measure contributions to the population growth rate for countries with shorter demographic series. In addition, we extend this model to explore the contribution of subnational changes to the national population growth rate. Our results demonstrate that the age-specific growth rates obtained from short historical series, say 25 years, closely match those of the longer series. These abbreviated age-specific growth rates closely resemble the growth rate at birth of their respective cohorts, which is the major determinant of population growth, except at older ages where mortality becomes the main explanatory element. Exploring subnational populations, we find considerable heterogeneity in the age profile of the components of growth and find that the most populous regions tend to have an outsized impact on national-level growth.
Subject(s)
Population Growth , Humans , Population Dynamics , Mortality/trends , Female , Male , Adult , Birth Rate/trends , Middle Aged , Age Factors , Aged , Young Adult , Adolescent , InfantABSTRACT
Fertility rates among individuals in their 20s have fallen sharply across Europe over the past 50 years. The implications of delayed first births for fertility levels in modern family regimes remain little understood. Using microsimulation models of childbearing and partnership for the 1970-1979 birth cohorts in Italy, Great Britain, Sweden, and Norway, we implement fictive scenarios that reduce the risk of having a first child before age 30 and examine fertility recovery mechanisms for aggregate fertility indicators (the proportion of women with at least one, two, three, or four children; cohort completed fertility rate). Exposure to a first birth increases systematically in the ages following the simulated reduction in first-birth risks, leading to a structural recovery in childbearing that varies across countries according to their fertility and partnership regimes. Full recovery requires an increase in late first-birth risks, with greater increases in countries where late family formation is uncommon and average family sizes are larger: in scenarios where early fertility declines substantially (a linear decline from 50% at age 15 to 0% at age 30), first-birth risks above age 30 would have to increase by 54% in Great Britain, 40% in Norway and Sweden, and 20% in Italy to keep completed fertility constant.
Subject(s)
Birth Rate , Humans , Female , Adult , Birth Rate/trends , Europe/epidemiology , Family Characteristics , Young Adult , Adolescent , Age Factors , Maternal Age , Pregnancy , FertilityABSTRACT
The European Marriage Pattern (EMP), in place in NW Europe for perhaps 500 years, substantially limited fertility. But how could such limitation persist when some individuals who deviated from the EMP norm had more children? If their children inherited their deviant behaviors, their descendants would quickly become the majority of later generations. This puzzle has two possible solutions. The first is that all those that deviated actually had lower net fertility over multiple generations. We show, however, no fertility penalty to future generations from higher initial fertility. Instead the EMP survived because even though the EMP persisted at the social level, children did not inherit their parents' individual fertility choices. In the paper we show evidence consistent with lateral, as opposed to vertical, transmission of EMP fertility behaviors.
Subject(s)
Marriage , Humans , Marriage/history , England , History, 17th Century , Quebec , History, 19th Century , History, 18th Century , Fertility , Female , Male , Birth Rate/trends , Socioeconomic Factors , Family CharacteristicsABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of demographic shifts, changes in contemporaneous clinical practices, and technologic innovation on assisted reproductive technology (ART) success rates by conducting an analysis of cumulative live-birth rates across different time periods, age groups, and infertility diagnoses. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of autologous linked cycles comparing cumulative live-birth rates over successive cycles from patients undergoing their first retrieval between 2014 and 2019 in the SART CORS (Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System) database. All cycles reported for these individuals up to 2020 were included for analysis. We compared cumulative live-birth rates stratified by age and infertility cause with published data from the 2004-2009 SART CORS database. RESULTS: From 2014 to 2019, 447,042 patients underwent their first autologous index retrieval, resulting in 1,007,374 cycles and 252,215 live births over the period of 2014 to 2020. In contrast, between 2004 and 2008, 246,740 patients underwent 471,208 cycles, resulting in 140,859 births by 2009. Noteworthy shifts in demographics were observed, with an increase in people of color seeking reproductive technology (57.9% vs 51.7%, P <.001). There was also an increase in patients with diminished ovarian reserve and ovulatory disorders and a decrease in endometriosis, tubal, and male factor infertility ( P <.001). Previously associated with decreased odds of live birth, frozen embryo transfer and preimplantation genetic testing showed increased odds in 2014-2020. Preimplantation genetic testing rose from 3.4% to 36.0% and was associated with a lower cumulative live-birth rate for those younger than age 35 years ( P <.001) but a higher cumulative live-birth rate for those aged 35 years or older ( P <.001). Comparing 2014-2020 with 2004-2009 shows that the overall cumulative live-birth rate improved for patients aged 35 years or older and for all infertility diagnoses except ovulatory disorders ( P <.001). CONCLUSION: This analysis provides insights into the changing landscape of ART treatments in the United States over the past two decades. The observed shifts in demographics, clinical practices, and technology highlight the dynamic nature of an evolving field of reproductive medicine. These findings may offer insight for clinicians to consider in counseling patients and to inform future research endeavors in the field of ART.
Subject(s)
Live Birth , Reproductive Techniques, Assisted , Humans , Female , Adult , Retrospective Studies , Reproductive Techniques, Assisted/statistics & numerical data , Reproductive Techniques, Assisted/trends , United States/epidemiology , Pregnancy , Live Birth/epidemiology , Infertility/therapy , Infertility/epidemiology , Male , Birth Rate/trendsABSTRACT
Geographic disparities in teen birth rates in the U.S. persist, despite overall reductions over the last two decades. Research suggests these disparities might be driven by spatial variations in social determinants of health (SDOH). An alternative view is that "place" or "geographical context" affects teen birth rates so that they would remain uneven across the U.S. even if all SDOH were constant. We use multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to quantify the relative effects of geographical context, independent of SDOH, on county-level teen birth rates across the U.S. Findings indicate that even if all counties had identical compositions with respect to SDOH, strong geographic disparities in teen birth rates would still persist. Additionally, local parameter estimates show the relationships between several components of SDOH and teen birth rates vary over space in both direction and magnitude, confirming that global regression techniques commonly employed to examine these relationships likely obscure meaningful contextual differences in these relationships. Findings from this analysis suggest that reducing geographic disparities in teen birth rates will require not only ameliorating differences in SDOH across counties but also combating community norms that contribute to high rates of teen birth, particularly in the southern U.S. Further, the results suggest that if geographical context is not incorporated into models of SDOH, the effects of such determinants may be interpreted incorrectly.
Subject(s)
Birth Rate , Pregnancy in Adolescence , Social Determinants of Health , Humans , Adolescent , Pregnancy in Adolescence/statistics & numerical data , Female , United States , Pregnancy , Birth Rate/trends , Health Status Disparities , Geography , Socioeconomic Factors , Spatial RegressionABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: This study addresses the importance of identifying key characteristics influencing demographic indicators for urban populations, emphasizing the need to consider regional climatic features and ecological factors. The research utilized data from ten main regional cities across the Republic of Kazakhstan. METHODS: This study involved a retrospective analysis based on secondary data from official sources spanning 2012-2020. We employed correlation analysis and multidimensional regression models. RESULTS: Noteworthy predictors for crude birth rate included the influence of effective temperature (ß = 0.842, p < 0.0001), marriage rate (ß = 0.780, p < 0.0001), Gini coefficient (ß = -27.342, p = 0.020) and divorce rate (ß = -2.060, p < 0.0001), with overall strong model performance (R2 = 0.940). The degree of atmospheric pollution (ß = -0.949, p = 0.044), effective temperature (ß = -0.294, p < 0.0001) and Gini coefficient (ß = 19.923, p = 0.015) were the predictors for crude mortality rate, with a high model fit (R2 = 0.796). CONCLUSIONS: The study unveils significant relationships between demographic indicators (crude birth rate, mortality rate) and variables like effective temperature, marriage rate, divorce rate, Gini coefficient, physician density and others. This analysis of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors influencing demographic indicators may help in promoting specific measures to address public health issues in Kazakhstan.
Subject(s)
Socioeconomic Factors , Urban Population , Kazakhstan , Humans , Retrospective Studies , Urban Population/statistics & numerical data , Climate , Birth Rate/trends , Population DynamicsABSTRACT
PURPOSE: To assess whether the large declines in adolescent childbearing among Hispanic adolescents over the period 2000-2019 have been driven by co-occurring changes in the composition of the Hispanic population and, if so, whether they have done so differentially by Hispanic subgroup. METHODS: We use birth counts from the United States vital statistics system and population denominators from the United States decennial census long form 5-percent Public Use Microdata and the American Community Survey to conduct a decomposition analysis apportioning observed declines in Hispanic adolescent childbearing to: (1) compositional shifts in nativity, age, and region-of-origin and (2) subgroup changes in childbearing rates. RESULTS: The Hispanic adolescent fertility rate fell by over 71% from 2000 to 2019, with Mexican-Origin, United States-born, and younger adolescents exhibiting the steepest declines (79%, 70%, and 80% declines, respectively). Results from the decomposition analysis show that almost 90% of the decline is due to within-group rate change, with some variability by subgroup and by decade. Only 10% of the decline was due to compositional changes, with shifts in nativity driving much of the effect. DISCUSSION: Declines in Hispanic adolescent childbearing over the last decades have occurred in spite of substantial shifts in the composition of the Hispanic population, not because of them. These findings set the stage for a more detailed examination of the drivers of change in sexual activity, contraceptive use, and abortion, all of which are proximate determinants of adolescent pregnancy and childbearing. Additionally, a focus on more distal factors is needed, including the role that changing political, societal, and economic conditions in the United States have for early fertility patterns.