Strain variation and anomalous climate synergistically influence cholera pandemics.

BACKGROUND: Explanations for the genesis and propagation of cholera pandemics since 1817 have remained elusive. Evolutionary pathogen change is presumed to have been a dominant factor behind the 7th "El Tor" pandemic, but little is known to support this hypothesis for preceding pandemics. The role of anomalous climate in facilitating strain replacements has never been assessed. The question is of relevance to guide the understanding of infectious disease emergence today and in the context of climate change. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigate the roles of climate and putative strain variation for the 6th cholera pandemic (1899-1923) using newly assembled historical records for climate variables and cholera deaths in provinces of former British India. We compare this historical pandemic with the 7th (El Tor) one and with the temporary emergence of the O139 strain in Bangladesh and globally. With statistical methods for nonlinear time series analysis, we examine the regional synchrony of outbreaks and associations of the disease with regional temperature and rainfall, and with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To establish future expectations and evaluate climate anomalies accompanying historical strain replacements, climate projections are generated with multi-model climate simulations for different 50-year periods. The 6th cholera pandemic featured the striking synchronisation of cholera outbreaks over Bengal during the El Niño event of 1904-07, following the invasion of the Bombay Presidency with a delay of a few years. Accompanying anomalous weather conditions are similar to those related to ENSO during strain replacements and pandemic expansions into Africa and South America in the late 20th century. Rainfall anomalies of 1904-05 at the beginning of the large cholera anomaly fall in the 99th percentile of simulated changes for the regional climate. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Evolutionary pathogen change can act synergistically with climatic conditions in the emergence and propagation of cholera strains. Increased climate variability and extremes under global warming provide windows of opportunity for emerging pathogens.

Deforestation-induced runoff changes dominated by forest-climate feedbacks.

Large-scale deforestation alters water availability through its direct effect on runoff generation and indirect effect through forest-climate feedbacks. However, these direct and indirect effects and their spatial variations are difficult to separate and poorly understood. Here, we develop an attribution framework that combines the Budyko theory and deforestation experiments with climate models, showing that widespread runoff reductions caused by the indirect effect of forest-climate feedbacks can largely offset the direct effect of reduced forest cover on runoff increases. The indirect effect dominates the hydrological responses to deforestation over 63% of deforested areas worldwide. This indirect effect arises from deforestation-induced reductions in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, which decrease and increase runoff, respectively, leading to complex patterns of runoff responses. Our findings underscore the importance of forest-climate feedbacks for improved understanding and prediction of climate and hydrological changes caused by deforestation, with profound implications for sustainable management of forests and water resources.

Phylogenetic evidence clarifies the history of the extrusion of Indochina.

The southeastward extrusion of Indochina along the Ailao Shan-Red River shear zone (ARSZ) is one of two of the most prominent consequences of the India-Asia collision. This plate-scale extrusion has greatly changed Southeast Asian topography and drainage patterns and effected regional climate and biotic evolution. However, little is known about how Indochina was extruded toward the southeast over time. Here, we sampled 42 plant and animal clades (together encompassing 1,721 species) that are distributed across the ARSZ and are not expected to disperse across long distances. We first assess the possible role of climate on driving the phylogenetic separations observed across the ARSZ. We then investigate the temporal dynamics of the extrusion of Indochina through a multitaxon analysis. We show that the lineage divergences across the ARSZ were most likely associated with the Indochinese extrusion rather than climatic events. The lineage divergences began at ~53 Ma and increased sharply ~35 Ma, with two peaks at ~19 Ma and ~7 Ma, and one valley at ~13 Ma. Our results suggest a two-phase model for the extrusion of Indochina, and in each phase, the extrusion was subject to periods of acceleration and decrease, in agreement with the changes of the India-Asia convergence rate and angle from the early Eocene to the late Miocene. This study highlights that a multitaxon analysis can illuminate the timing of subtle historical events that may be difficult for geological data to pinpoint and can be used to explore other tectonic events.

Asymmetric effects of hydroclimate extremes on eastern US tree growth: Implications on current demographic shifts and climate variability.

Forests around the world are experiencing changes due to climate variability and human land use. How these changes interact and influence the vulnerability of forests are not well understood. In the eastern United States, well-documented anthropogenic disturbances and land-use decisions, such as logging and fire suppression, have influenced forest species assemblages, leading to a demographic shift from forests dominated by xeric species to those dominated by mesic species. Contemporarily, the climate has changed and is expected to continue to warm and produce higher evaporative demand, imposing stronger drought stress on forest communities. Here, we use an extensive network of tree-ring records from common hardwood species across ~100 sites and ~1300 trees in the eastern United States to examine the magnitude of growth response to both wet and dry climate extremes. We find that growth reductions during drought exceed the positive growth response to pluvials. Mesic species such as Liriodendron tulipifera and Acer saccharum, which are becoming more dominant, are more sensitive to drought than more xeric species, such as oaks (Quercus) and hickory (Carya), especially at moderate and extreme drought intensities. Although more extreme droughts produce a larger annual growth reduction, mild droughts resulted in the largest cumulative growth decreases due to their higher frequency. When using global climate model projections, all scenarios show drought frequency increasing substantially (3-9 times more likely) by 2100. Thus, the ongoing demographic shift toward more mesic species in the eastern United States combined with drier conditions results in larger drought-induced growth declines, suggesting that drought will have an even larger impact on aboveground carbon uptake in the future in the eastern United States.

Spatiotemporal patterns and association with climate for malaria elimination in Lao PDR: a hierarchical modelling analysis with two-step Bayesian model selection.

BACKGROUND: The government of Lao PDR has increased efforts to control malaria transmission in order to reach its national elimination goal by 2030. Weather can influence malaria transmission dynamics and should be considered when assessing the impact of elimination interventions but this relationship has not been well characterized in Lao PDR. This study examined the space-time association between climate variables and Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence from 2010 to 2022. METHODS: Spatiotemporal Bayesian modelling was used to investigate the monthly relationship, and model selection criteria were used to evaluate the performance of the models and weather variable specifications. As the malaria control and elimination situation was spatially and temporally dynamic during the study period, the association was examined annually at the provincial level. RESULTS: Malaria incidence decreased from 2010 to 2022 and was concentrated in the southern regions for both P. falciparum and P. vivax. Rainfall and maximum humidity were identified as most strongly associated with malaria during the study period. Rainfall was associated with P. falciparum incidence in the north and central regions during 2010-2011, and with P. vivax incidence in the north and central regions during 2012-2015. Maximum humidity was persistently associated with P. falciparum and P. vivax incidence in the south. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria remains prevalent in Lao PDR, particularly in the south, and the relationship with weather varies between regions but was strongest for rainfall and maximum humidity for both species. During peak periods with suitable weather conditions, vector control activities and raising public health awareness on the proper usage of intervention measures, such as indoor residual spraying and personal protection, should be prioritized.

Repetition increases belief in climate-skeptical claims, even for climate science endorsers.

Does repeated exposure to climate-skeptic claims influence their acceptance as true, even among climate science endorsers? Research with general knowledge claims shows that repeated exposure to a claim increases its perceived truth when it is encountered again. However, motivated cognition research suggests that people primarily endorse what they already believe. Across two experiments, climate science endorsers were more likely to believe claims that were consistent with their prior beliefs, but repeated exposure increased perceptions of truth for climate-science and climate-skeptic claims to a similar extent. Even counter-attitudinal claims benefit from previous exposure, highlighting the insidious effect of repetition.

Medicalizing Topography: The French Army and Mediterranean Climates, 1760-1860.

This article details how the French army employed medical topography as a tool of military occupation throughout the Mediterranean world from the mid-eighteenth to mid-nineteenth century. It departs from other works by focusing exclusively on medical topography's military applications. Medical topographies charted the connections between health and the environment by observing a location's features, such as soil, air, and water quality, as well as elevation, prevailing winds, common local diseases, sources of potential contagion, and the cleanliness of urban environments. Because a medical-topographic study took time to write and implement, its findings provided little utility during active conflict. Only after the fighting ceased during a campaign could the army make use of a medical topography's findings by taking measures such as draining swamps, relocating hospitals in unhealthy environments, and issuing climate-appropriate gear.

Cet article examine la façon dont l'armée française utilisait la topographie médicale en tant qu'outil d'occupation militaire pendant les dix-huitième et dix-neuvième siècles dans le monde Méditerranéen. Il se détache des autres travaux en se concentrant exclusivement sur les applications militaires de l'étude. Les études topographiques-médicales analysaient des liens entre l'environnement et la santé. Ces études permettaient l'observation minutieuse et l'enregistrement des caractéristiques d'un lieu, comme par exemple : son élévation, les vents dominants, la qualité de terre, d'eaux, et d'air, la propreté des centres urbaines, et des maladies locales ainsi que leurs origines. Parce que ces études exigeaient du temps d'écrire et d'implémenter, elles n'ont pas eu une grande utilité pratique pendant une campagne. Cependant, après la cessation des hostilités, l'armée a mis en pratique les résultats de ces études. Elle a vidé des marais, déménagé des hôpitaux malsains, et distribué du matériel adapté à l'environnement.

Spatiotemporal change characteristics of NDVI and response to climate factors in the Jixi Wetland, Eastern China.

Exploring the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of vegetation in the confluent area of water systems in western Jinan and its response mechanism to climatic factors is of great significance for the scientific evaluation of the benefits of the water system connectivity project and eco-environmental protection and can provide a reference for ecotourism development in the Jixi wetland park. Based on the Landsat series of images and meteorological data, this study used ENVI to interpret the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of the confluent area from 2010 to 2021, and the spatiotemporal change characteristics and trends of NDVI were quantitatively analyzed. The response of the growing-season NDVI (GSN) to climate factors and its time-lag effect were explored. The results showed that the overall change in the interannual NDVI in the confluent area from 2010 to 2021 was stable. The GSN in the confluent area was significantly positively correlated with precipitation, average temperature, and relative humidity in 37.64%, 25.52%, and 20.87% of the area respectively, and significantly negatively correlated with sunshine hours in 15.32% of the area. There was a time-lag effect on the response of the GSN to climate factors; the response to precipitation and sunshine hours lagged by 1 month, and the response to average temperature and relative humidity was longer.

Correlations between local geoclimatic variables and hatchling body size in the sea turtles Caretta caretta and Chelonia mydas.

It has been widely demonstrated that air and sand temperatures influence the anatomy of sea turtle hatchlings. We examined the impact of precipitation during the nesting season on the hatchling body size of loggerhead and green turtles from 37 beaches worldwide. Longitudinal data collected between 2012 and 2018 from Florida (US) and from a sample on Bõa Vista Island (Cabo Verde) carried out in 2019 showed that loggerhead body size at hatching was negatively correlated with precipitation, while precipitation was not correlated with hatchling body size in green turtles. A meta-analysis revealed that precipitation is positively correlated with hatchling mass in loggerhead turtles, while it is positively correlated with straight carapace length and width in green turtle hatchlings. The strongest influence of precipitation was found in the middle of the incubation period of loggerhead turtles in Cabo Verde, and we posit that this is due to an increase in the uptake of water for embryonic growth. These findings highlight the great importance of understanding the correlated effects of regional environmental variables, such as precipitation, on the development of sea turtle hatchlings and will have an impact on the evaluation of ongoing conservation and climate change discussions.

Chemotaxonomic variation of volatile components in Zanthoxylum Bungeanum peel and effects of climate on volatile components.

BACKGROUND: Zanthoxylum bungeanum Maxim. is widely distributed across China, and the aroma of its peel is primarily determined by its volatile components. In this study, we analyzed the characteristics of volatile components in Z. bungeanum peels from different regions and investigated their correlation with climatic factors. RESULTS: The results identified 126 compounds in Z. bungeanum, with 27 compounds exhibiting distinct odor characteristics. Linalool was the most abundant, with an average relative content of 21.664%. The volatile oil of Z. bungeanum predominantly features spicy, floral, citrus, and mint aromas. The classification results indicated a significant difference in elevation at the ZB10 collection points in Shaanxi Province compared to other groups. Temperature, average annual precipitation, and wind speed were crucial factors influencing the accumulation of volatile components. CONCLUSIONS: This study is beneficial for enhancing the quality of Z. bungeanum, expanding the understanding of how climatic factors influence the accumulation of volatile substances, and promoting agricultural practices in regions with similar climatic conditions.

Unmasking seasonal cycles in a high-input dairy herd in a hot environment: How climate shapes dynamics of milk yield, reproduction, and productive status.

This study aimed to predict the annual herd milk yield, lactation, and reproductive cycle stages in a high-input dairy herd in a zone with prolonged thermal stress. Also, the impact of climatic conditions on milk yield and productive and reproductive status was assessed. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used in data fitting to predict future monthly herd milk yield and reproductive status using data from 2014 to 2020. Based on the annual total milk output, the highest predicted percentage of milk yield based on the yearly milk production was in February (9.1%; 95% CI = 8.3-9.9) and the lowest in August (6.9%; 95% CI = 6.0-7.9). The predicted highest percentage of pregnant cows for 2021 was in May (61.8; 95% CI = 53.0-70.5) and the lowest for November (33.2%; 95% CI = 19.9-46.5). The monthly percentage of dry cows in this study showed a steady trend across years; the predicted highest percentage was in September (20.1%; CI = 16.4-23.7) and the lowest in March (7.5%; 4.0-11.0). The predicted days in milk (DIM) were lower in September (158; CI = 103-213) and highest in May (220; 95% CI = 181-259). Percentage of calvings was seasonal, with the predicted maximum percentage of calvings occurring in September (10.3%; CI = 8.0-12.5) and the minimum in April (3.2%; CI = 1.0-5.5). The highest predicted culling rate for the year ensuing the present data occurred in November (4.3%; 95% CI = 3.2-5.4) and the lowest in April (2.5%; 95% CI = 1.4-3.5). It was concluded that meteorological factors strongly influenced rhythms of monthly milk yield and reproductive status. Also, ARIMA models robustly estimated and forecasted productive and reproductive events in a dairy herd in a hot environment.

Future projection of droughts in Morocco and potential impact on agriculture.

The present study evaluates the future drought hazard in Morocco using a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach. First, the artificial neural network-based MME is constructed using the General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Climate Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) which are most successful in representing the historical temperature and precipitation values. Next, the future changes in the precipitation, Potential EvapoTranspiration (PET) calculated using temperatures data, aridity index, and drought indices calculated via the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values were projected for the historical period 1980-2014, near future 2025-2050, mid future 2051-2075, and far future 2076-2100. The obtained results indicate that there will be a decrease in values of the precipitation and an increase in values of the PET, leading to an increase in aridity risk for Morocco. The future projections using the SPEI results show that the average index values will mostly be in the drought zone, indicating that the drought severity will increase. The spatial analysis of SPEI values in different regions of Morocco demonstrates that the northern part of the country has relatively more drought occurrences, and drought severity tends to increase with each passing period. The study also reveals that drought severity will significantly increase after 2050 in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario. The research concludes that the increase in drought severity will significantly impact Morocco's water resources, agriculture and food security among others.

Latitudinal gradients in the phylogenetic assembly of angiosperms in Asia during the Holocene.

Spatio-temporal assessment of phylogenetic diversity gradients during the Holocene (past 12,000 years) provides an opportunity for a deeper understanding of the dynamics of species co-occurrence patterns under environmental fluctuations. Using two robust metrics of phylogenetic dispersion (PD) and 99 fossil pollen sequences containing 6557 samples/assemblages, we analyse spatio-temporal variation in PD of angiosperms and its relationship with Holocene climate in central Asia. Overall, PD throughout the Holocene decreases linearly with increasing latitude, except for a rise in mean nearest taxon distance from ca. 25 to 35° N. This indicates that phylogenetically divergent taxa decrease progressively with increasing latitude, leaving more phylogenetically closely related taxa in the assemblages, thereby increasing phylogenetic relatedness among the co-occurring taxa. The latitudinal gradient of PD has not been consistent during the Holocene, and this temporal variation is concordant with the Holocene climate dynamics. In general, profound temporal changes in the latitudinal PD toward higher latitudes implies that the major environmental changes during the Holocene have driven considerable spatio-temporal changes in the phylogenetic assembly of high-latitude angiosperm assemblages. Our results suggest that environmental filtering and the tendency of taxa and lineages to retain ancestral ecological features and geographic distributions (phylogenetic niche conservatism) are the main mechanisms underlying the phylogenetic assembly of angiosperms along the climate-latitudinal gradient. Ongoing environmental changes may pose future profound phylogenetic changes in high-latitude plant assemblages, which are adapted to harsh environmental conditions, and therefore are phylogenetically less dispersed (more conservative or clustered).

Temporal variation characteristics in the association between climate and vegetation in Northwest China.

Northwest China has undergone notable alterations in climate and vegetation growth in recent decades. Nevertheless, uncertainties persist concerning the response of different vegetation types to climate change and the underlying mechanisms. This study utilized the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and three sets of meteorological data to investigate the interannual variations in the association between vegetation and climate (specifically precipitation and temperature) from 1982 to 2015. Several conclusions were drawn. (1) RNDVI-GP (relationship between Growing Season NDVI and precipitation) decreased significantly across all vegetation, while RNDVI-GT (relationship between Growing Season NDVI and temperature) showed an insignificant increase. (2) Trends of RNDVI-GP and RNDVI-GT exhibited great variations across various types of vegetation, with forests displaying notable downward trends in both indices. The grassland exhibited a declining trend in RNDVI-GP but an insignificant increase in RNDVI-GT, while no significant temporal changes in RNDVI-GP or RNDVI-GT were observed in the barren land. (3) The fluctuations in RNDVI-GP and RNDVI-GT closely aligned with variations in drought conditions. Specifically, in regions characterized by VPD (vapor pressure deficit) trends less than 0.02 hpa/yr, which are predominantly grasslands, a rise in SWV (soil water volume) tended to cause a reduction in RNDVI-GP but an increase in RNDVI-GT. However, a more negative trend in SWV was associated with a more negative trend in both RNDVI-GP and RNDVI-GT when the VPD trend exceeded 0.02 hPa/yr, primarily in forests. Our results underscore the variability in the relationship between climate change and vegetation across different vegetation types, as well as the role of drought in modulating these associations.

Broad-scale seasonal climate tracking is a consequence, not a driver, of avian migratory connectivity.

Tracking climatic conditions throughout the year is often assumed to be an adaptive behaviour underlying seasonal migration patterns in animal populations. We investigate this hypothesis using genetic markers data to map migratory connectivity for 27 genetically distinct bird populations from 7 species. We found that the variation in seasonal climate tracking across our suite of populations at a continental scale is more likely a consequence, rather than a direct driver, of migratory connectivity, which is primarily shaped by energy efficiency-i.e., optimizing the balance between accessing available resources and movement costs. However, our results also suggest that regional-scale seasonal precipitation tracking affects population migration destinations, thus revealing a potential scale dependency of ecological processes driving migration. Our results have implications for the conservation of these migratory species under climate change, as populations tracking climate seasonally are potentially at higher risk if they adapt to a narrow range of climatic conditions.

Modelling bluetongue and African horse sickness vector (Culicoides spp.) distribution in the Western Cape in South Africa using random forest machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Culicoides biting midges exhibit a global spatial distribution and are the main vectors of several viruses of veterinary importance, including bluetongue (BT) and African horse sickness (AHS). Many environmental and anthropological factors contribute to their ability to live in a variety of habitats, which have the potential to change over the years as the climate changes. Therefore, as new habitats emerge, the risk for new introductions of these diseases of interest to occur increases. The aim of this study was to model distributions for two primary vectors for BT and AHS (Culicoides imicola and Culicoides bolitinos) using random forest (RF) machine learning and explore the relative importance of environmental and anthropological factors in a region of South Africa with frequent AHS and BT outbreaks. METHODS: Culicoides capture data were collected between 1996 and 2022 across 171 different capture locations in the Western Cape. Predictor variables included climate-related variables (temperature, precipitation, humidity), environment-related variables (normalised difference vegetation index-NDVI, soil moisture) and farm-related variables (livestock densities). Random forest (RF) models were developed to explore the spatial distributions of C. imicola, C. bolitinos and a merged species map, where both competent vectors were combined. The maps were then compared to interpolation maps using the same capture data as well as historical locations of BT and AHS outbreaks. RESULTS: Overall, the RF models performed well with 75.02%, 61.6% and 74.01% variance explained for C. imicola, C. bolitinos and merged species models respectively. Cattle density was the most important predictor for C. imicola and water vapour pressure the most important for C. bolitinos. Compared to interpolation maps, the RF models had higher predictive power throughout most of the year when species were modelled individually; however, when merged, the interpolation maps performed better in all seasons except winter. Finally, midge densities did not show any conclusive correlation with BT or AHS outbreaks. CONCLUSION: This study yielded novel insight into the spatial abundance and drivers of abundance of competent vectors of BT and AHS. It also provided valuable data to inform mathematical models exploring disease outbreaks so that Culicoides-transmitted diseases in South Africa can be further analysed.

Human response to the Younger Dryas along the southern North Sea basin, Northwest Europe.

Currently in NW Europe little is known about the human response to the extensive cold reversal at the end of the Pleistocene, the Younger Dryas (ca. 12,850 till ca. 11,650 cal BP), mainly due to the poor chronological resolution of the archaeological sites belonging to the Ahrensburgian Culture. Here we present a series of 33 radiocarbon dates performed on the seminal cave site of Remouchamps, situated in the Belgian Meuse basin. Combined with a revision of the available radiocarbon evidence along the southern North Sea basin (Belgium, southern Netherlands, western Germany), it is suggested that the first half of the Younger Dryas, characterized as extremely cold and wet, faced a significant population reduction. Repopulation started around the middle of the Younger Dryas, from ca. 12,200 cal BP onward, probably in response to a slight climatic improvement leading to somewhat warmer summers. This might be considered a prelude to the subsequent population boost of the Early Holocene (Mesolithic).

Production, reproduction, and some adaptation characteristics of Romanov sheep raised under humid temperate climate.

This study aimed to determine the fertility and growth traits, viability, and body measurements of the Romanov sheep under breeder conditions in the humid region of Turkey. The animal material of the research consisted of sheep imported from Ukraine in 2019. In the study, there are two farms with 31 and 44 ewes in the first year and three farms with 45, 34, and 32 ewes in the second year. The reproductive performances of 186 sheep and lambs in three different farms were examined, and nine rams, one ram per 20 sheep, were used for mating. Two-year (2020 and 2021) data on the reproductive performance of pure Romanov ewes, survivability in ewes and lambs, and development characteristics in lambs were used in the present study. The conceived rate (88.17%), fecundity at birth (1.42) and at weaning (1.29), litter size at birth (1.76) and weaning (1.56), single (50.98%), twin (41.83%), and triplet birth rate (6.54%), and abortion rate (6.71%) were determined for 2 years average. Birth and weaning weights of lambs were affected by sex and birth type (p < 0.01). The Romanov sheep and their lambs did not satisfy the breeder regarding reproductive performance and lamb development.

Spatial mapping of dengue fever prevalence and its association with geo-climatic factors in Lahore, Pakistan.

A vector-borne disease of concern for global public health, dengue fever has been spreading its endemicity and several cases in recent years, particularly in Lahore Pakistan. Dengue transmission is influenced by geo-climatic conditions. This study aimed to map the spatial prevalence of dengue fever in Lahore and its association with geo-climatic factors during the epidemic of the year 2021. In this study, geo-climatic factors that could potentially encourage the growth of the virus are chosen for this study, and their temporal and spatial changeability relate to dengue cases. The objective of this study is to use meteorological, satellite data and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to map dengue outbreaks and identify the risk-prone areas by relating geo-climatic factors with dengue outbreaks. The dengue patients and their locations data were collected from the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) Lahore. This study uses Google Earth and Landsat-8 OLI/TIRs images to extract geo-climatic and land use parameters. The dot density maps technique was used to represent the spatiotemporal distribution of dengue cases. The hotspot analysis was applied to show the hotspots of dengue cases in district Lahore at the Union Council (UC) level. The Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI), built-up area, population density, precipitation, and Land Surface Temperature (LST) are the factors employed. In this study, correlation was performed to test the significance between precipitation and the prevalence of dengue fever in Lahore. The results show that the incidence and prevalence of dengue fever month-wise at the UC level in Lahore. The distribution pattern of dengue outbreaks in the Lahore area and its demographic factors were found to be associated. It concludes that the increase in the spread of dengue fever is associated with the monsoon rains. The prevalence of dengue is associated with water bodies and high land surface temperature, but it does not represent any significant relation with vegetation cover and land use in Lahore during the year 2021. The study pinpointed the locations that are most susceptible and require care to prevent such outbreaks in the future.

Climatic variations and Fasciola: a review of impacts across the parasite life cycle.

Fasciolosis, caused by the liver fluke Fasciola spp., is a significant parasitic disease of livestock and humans worldwide. Fasciola transmission and life cycle are highly dependent on climatic conditions, especially temperature and humidity. This dependency has gained significance in the context of ongoing climate change. This literature review examined evidence on the effects of temperature variability on the developmental stages of Fasciola spp. and the snail intermediate hosts. We reviewed free larval stages of Fasciola spp. development, as well as snail intermediate hosts, while investigating the climate-related factors influencing each stage. We found that Fasciola spp. egg hatching and development were inhibited below 10 °C and optimal between 20 and 30 °C, miracidia hatching time decreased with higher temperatures and cercarial shedding by snail hosts accelerated around 27 °C. Further, metacercarial viability declined at higher temperatures but was prolonged by higher humidity. Snail intermediate host growth rates peaked at 25 °C, and their susceptibility to Fasciola infection depends on temperature, underscoring its importance in transmission dynamics. Overall, the Fasciola life cycle and snail host development exhibit stage-specific temperature thresholds, indicating a complex relationship between temperature fluctuations and parasite transmission potential. This research highlights the key role of temperature and humidity on Fasciola spp. and snail development, shedding light on the potential consequences of climate change on their survival, development, and disease transmission. Data limitations, primarily from the scarcity of high-resolution climate-related experiments, should drive future research to enhance predictive models and deepen our understanding of the impact of climate change on this parasitic disease.