Stakeholders' perspectives on capturing societal cost savings from a quality improvement initiative: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Besides improving the quality of care, quality improvement initiatives often also intend to produce cost savings. An example is prehabilitation, which can reduce complication rates and the length of stay in the hospital. However, the process from utilization reductions to actual societal cost savings remains uncertain in practice. Our aim was to identify barriers and facilitators throughout this process. We used the implementation of prehabilitation in a Dutch hospital as a test case. METHODS: We held 20 semi-structured interviews between June and November 2023. Eighteen stakeholders were affiliated with the hospital and two with different health insurers. Nine interviews were held face-to-face and 11 via Microsoft Teams. The interviews were recorded and transcribed. The first transcripts were inductively coded by two authors, the subsequent transcripts by one and checked by another. Differences were resolved through discussion. RESULTS: We identified 20 barriers and 23 facilitators across four stages: reducing capacity, reducing departmental expenses, reducing hospital expenses and reducing insurer expenses. All participants expected that the excess capacity will be used for other priorities. This was perceived as highly valuable and as an efficiency gain. Other barriers to capture savings included the fear of losing resilience, flexibility, status and revenue. Misalignment between service contracts among hospitals and insurers can hinder the ability to financially incentivize cost reductions. Additionally, some contract types can hinder the transfer of hospital savings to insurers. Identified facilitators included shared savings agreements, an explicit strategy targeting all stages, and labor shortage, among others. CONCLUSION: This study systematically describes barriers and facilitators that prevent translating quality improvement initiatives into societal cost savings. Stakeholders expect that any saved capacity will be used for other priorities, including providing care due to the increasing demand. Capturing any cash savings does not occur automatically, emphasizing the need for a strategy targeting all stages.

A review of biosimilars in psoriasis: impacts on efficacy, safety, access, and a first-hand look at biosimilar cost savings within the department of veterans affairs.

BACKGROUND: Psoriasis is a chronic immune-mediated systemic disease whose treatment has been revolutionized due to the induction of monoclonal antibody-based biologics. However, access to these drugs has been limited due to their high cost. Biosimilars utilize reverse engineering to create a highly similar product to an originator drug following patent expiration and provide an avenue to reduce costs of biologic treatment. This review seeks to synthesize current knowledge about the development, efficacy, and established benefits of biosimilars, including cost savings and increased access to biologic medicines. RESULTS: In 2023, the Veterans Health Administration (VA) generated a cost avoidance of over 67 million dollars through use of 6 currently adopted biosimilars across all indications. There is an opportunity for further cost avoidance, with the pre-set percent discount of statutory contract prices necessary for the adoption of future biosimilars, including adalimumab and etanercept, set at over 50%. CONCLUSIONS: Biosimilars appear to offer an overall effective, safe, and well-tolerated treatment method for patients with psoriasis and are already providing substantial cost savings within the VA. Additional education is needed to address sources of ambivalence for both patients and providers to assist in further uptake of biosimilars for the treatment of psoriasis.

Assessing cost and cost savings of teleconsultation in long-term care facilities: a time-driven activity-based costing analysis within a value-based healthcare framework.

BACKGROUND: Quebec's healthcare system faces significant challenges due to labour shortage, particularly in long-term care facilities (CHSLDs). The aging population and increasing demand for services compound this issue. Teleconsultation presents a promising solution to mitigate labour shortage, especially in small CHSLDs outside urban centers. This study aims to evaluate the cost and cost savings associated with teleconsultation in CHSLDs, utilizing the Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing (TDABC) model within the framework of Value-Based Healthcare (VBHC). METHODS: This study focuses on CHSLDs with fewer than 50 beds in remote regions of Quebec, where teleconsultation for nighttime nursing care was implemented. Time and cost data were collected from three CHSLDs over varying periods. The TDABC model, aligned with VBHC principles, was applied through five steps, including process mapping, estimating activity times, calculating resource costs, and determining total costs. RESULTS: Teleconsultation increased the cost per minute for nursing care compared to traditional care, attributed to additional tasks during remote consultations and potential technical challenges. However, cost savings were realized due to reduced need for onsite nursing staff during non-eventful nights. Overall, substantial savings were observed over the project duration, aligning with VBHC's focus on delivering high-value healthcare. CONCLUSIONS: This study contributes both theoretically and practically by demonstrating the application of TDABC within the VBHC framework in CHSLDs. The findings support the cost savings from the use of teleconsultation in small CHSLDs. Further research should explore the long-term sustainability and scalability of teleconsultation across different CHSLD sizes and settings within the VBHC context to ensure high-value healthcare delivery.

Projected Cost Savings of a Community Health Worker Model for Asthma Home Visits in the Massachusetts Pediatric Medicaid Population.

Introduction: The community health worker-led asthma home visiting model (CHW model) improved asthma outcomes and reduced health care costs among Massachusetts children with asthma. We projected cost savings associated with the expansion of the CHW model among pediatric Massachusetts Medicaid (MassHealth)-eligible patients with uncontrolled asthma (≥2 asthma-related emergency department visits per year). Methods: We estimated 2019 costs associated with asthma-related hospitalizations and emergency department visits for MassHealth pediatric patients with uncontrolled asthma who also had 365 days of Medicaid eligibility in 2019. We based estimated cost savings on previously published results from a study of a comparable patient population. Results: The projected asthma-related cost savings from expansion of the CHW model were $566.58 per patient, or $774,514.86 total, for the 1,367 MassHealth-eligible children with uncontrolled asthma in our analysis. Conclusion: Expansion of the CHW model is an effective way to increase asthma services and reduce Medicaid costs for MassHealth patients, a population made up disproportionately of Black and Hispanic residents with low incomes.

Defects in Value Associated With Hospital-Acquired Conditions: How Improving Quality Could Save U.S. Healthcare $50 Billion.

ABSTRACT: Hospital-acquired conditions in the United States are considered avoidable complications but remain common statistics reflecting on health system performance and are a leading cause of patient fatality. Currently, over 3.7 million patients experience a hospital-acquired condition in the United States each year, which costs the U.S. healthcare delivery system an excess of $48 billion. Evidence-based clinical practice guidelines for common hospital-acquired conditions (e.g., infections, falls, pressure injuries) to reduce risk to the patient. In each of these instances, preventing the outcome with these guidelines costs less than treating the outcome, in addition to keeping the patient safe from harm. By applying the framework of defects in value to hospital-acquired conditions, we estimate that U.S. health systems could avert this $48 billion in spending on treating harmful hospital-acquired conditions; more so, these systems of care could recuperate over $35 billion after investing proportionally in a system that delivers greater quality by preventing hospital-acquired conditions over treating them. Currently, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services only withholds reimbursements for hospital-acquired conditions and penalizes health systems with high rates of these outcomes. However, payers do not offer any reward-based incentives for hospital-acquired condition prevention. A series of policy and health system solutions, including tracking of hospital-acquired condition rates in electronic health records, identifying centers of excellence at reducing rates of harm with the use of clinical practice guidelines, and rewarding them monetarily for reduced rates could create equal-sided risk and opportunity to engage health systems in improved performance.

Estimating the Potential Health Care Cost-Savings from a Flax-Based Treatment for Hypertension.

Hypertension contributes to the increase in health care spending in Canada through two primary mechanisms. First, it directly increases costs, as individuals with hypertension require medical care to manage the condition. Second, it indirectly raises expenses by serving as a risk factor for numerous chronic diseases, leading to increased health care utilization among those affected. Therefore, reducing hypertension prevalence could alleviate its resulting strain on the Canadian health care system. Clinical trials have demonstrated that daily flaxseed consumption effectively lowers both systolic and diastolic blood pressure. This study employs a four-step cost-of-illness analysis to estimate the potential health care cost-savings from a flaxseed-based treatment for hypertension. The analysis begins by assessing the proportion of individuals with hypertension likely to adopt the flaxseed regimen. It then evaluates the impact of flaxseed consumption on systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Next, data from the Canadian Health Measures Survey, Cycles 5 and 6, are used to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the expected reduction in prevalence due to the flaxseed treatment. Finally, the potential reduction in health care spending is calculated. To incorporate uncertainty, partial sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations were utilized, varying the intake success rate and other model parameters, respectively. The most conservative estimate suggests a potential health care cost-savings of CAD 96,284,344 in Canada for the year 2020.

Potential US Health Care Savings Based on Clinician Views of Feasible Site-of-Care Shifts.

Importance: Shifting care to alternative sites when clinically appropriate may be associated with reduced US health care spending, improved access, and, in some cases, improved care outcomes. Objective: To fill 2 main gaps in the current literature on site-of-care shifts: (1) understanding the clinician perspective on appropriateness of alternative care sites, given the central role they play in referrals and patient trust and (2) considering all potential sites where care could shift and calculating net savings potential. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this survey study, physicians (MDs and DOs), nurse practitioners, physician assistants, nurse anesthetists, radiology and imaging technicians, and psychologists were surveyed from September 17 to November 22, 2021, about potential shifts of care from the hospital setting to alternative sites. Participants were selected by the survey firm Intellisurvey to provide broad representation across all specialties of interest. A minimum of 34 clinicians responded to each question. Data were analyzed from April 2022 through October 2023. Exposure: More than 5000 individual diagnostic and procedural codes were reviewed and sorted into 312 distinct care activities by an expert panel of physicians. Survey respondents were then provided with the 2019 claims-based distribution across sites of care for each care activity and were asked, "based on your clinical judgment, what portion of [care activity] could safely occur in each of the following sites of care, without compromising clinical outcomes?" Main Outcomes and Measures: Based on clinician-reported distributions, the total potential shift of volume from hospital-based settings to alternative sites and the associated net savings were estimated. Results: Survey respondents included 1069 practicing clinicians (386 female [36.1%]; mean [SD] years since residency of physicians, 21.0 [9.7] years; mean [SD] age of nonphysicians, 45.3 [9.4] years) across specialties, all of whom practiced more than 20 clinical hours per week. There were 794 physicians (74.3%), and the remaining 275 respondents were midlevel professionals, such as physician assistants. Among 312 care activities surveyed, respondents indicated that 10.3 percentage points (95% CI, 10.0-10.5 percentage points) of commercial and 10.9 percentage points (95% CI, 10.7-11.1 percentage points) of Medicare volume currently taking place in hospital-based settings could shift to alternative sites with today's technology without compromising clinical outcomes. Across the entire US health care system, these shifts could be associated with a reduction in overall health care consumption spending ($3 562 339 000 000 000) by approximately $113.8 billion ($113 767 446 087 174 [3.2%]) to $147.7 billion ($147 661 672 284 263 [4.1%]) annually. Conclusions and relevance: In this study, a substantial net savings opportunity was estimated. However, realizing this potential will require ongoing alignment among organizations, clinicians, and policymakers to overcome barriers to these shifts.

A palliative care approach for adult non-cancer patients with life-limiting illnesses is cost-saving or cost-neutral: a systematic review of RCTs.

BACKGROUND: Patients living with life-limiting illnesses other than cancer constitute the majority of patients in need of palliative care globally, yet most previous systematic reviews of the cost impact of palliative care have not exclusively focused on this population. Reviews that tangentially looked at non-cancer patients found inconclusive evidence. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for treatment efficacy, while total health care costs offer a comprehensive measure of resource use. In the sole review of RCTs for non-cancer patients, palliative care reduced hospitalisations and emergency department visits but its effect on total health care costs was not assessed. The aim of this study is to review RCTs to determine the difference in costs between a palliative care approach and usual care in adult non-cancer patients with a life-limiting illness. METHODS: A systematic review using a narrative synthesis approach. The protocol was registered with PROSPERO prospectively (no. CRD42020191082). Eight databases were searched: Medline, CINAHL, EconLit, EMBASE, TRIP database, NHS Evidence, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science from inception to January 2023. Inclusion criteria were: English or German; randomised controlled trials (RCTs); adult non-cancer patients (> 18 years); palliative care provision; a comparator group of standard or usual care. Quality of studies was assessed using Drummond's checklist for assessing economic evaluations. RESULTS: Seven RCTs were included and examined the following diseases: neurological (3), heart failure (2), AIDS (1) and mixed (1). The majority (6/7) were home-based interventions. All studies were either cost-saving (3/7) or cost-neutral (4/7); and four had improved outcomes for patients or carers and three no change in outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In a non-cancer population, this is the first systematic review of RCTs that has demonstrated a palliative care approach is cost-saving or at least cost-neutral. Cost savings are achieved without worsening outcomes for patients and carers. These findings lend support to calls to increase palliative care provision globally.

The impact of capping health system cost savings on the projected cost-effectiveness of etranacogene dezaparvovec compared with factor IX prophylaxis for the treatment of hemophilia B.

This viewpoint discusses cost-effectiveness estimates for EtranaDez, a gene therapy for hemophilia B, using the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review's (ICER) framework for single and short-term therapies (SSTs). EtranaDez offers long-term benefits from a single administration, in contrast to the high costs and frequent dosing required by current factor IX prophylaxis. However, the projected gains in health from EtranaDez are small relative to the cost implications of the therapy, and consequently, how the cost offsets associated with EtranaDez are counted has a substantial impact on assessing its cost-effectiveness. Strategies for assessing cost offsets used in the ICER SST framework include a 50/50 cost-sharing model between the health care system and the manufacturer and a cap of $150,000 annually on health care cost offsets. Results from the standard full cost-offset analysis as reported by ICER depicted EtranaDez as a dominant therapy with substantial cost savings compared with factor IX prophylaxis. However, while considering the ICER SST framework, particularly the $150,000 annual cap scenario, the cost-effectiveness was significantly reduced. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio varied notably between these scenarios, challenging the conventional perception of value of gene therapy in health care. These cost-sharing scenarios highlight the potential of the ICER SST framework to help curtail inefficient health care spending. In cases in which the cost of existing treatment is exceedingly high, the application of such frameworks would improve efficiency in resource allocation, fostering a balance between incentives for innovation and economic sustainability in managed care systems.

Stakeholder perspectives on the sustainability of the United States biosimilars market.

Biologic therapies play a critical role in modern medical practice but also present challenges for payers, patients, and other stakeholders because of their high cost. Biosimilars can mitigate the cost pressures of reference biologic therapy because they are typically priced at least 25% lower, providing a means to administer cutting-edge biologic therapy while also managing cost of care. In fact, the US health care system has saved an estimated $23.6 billion from use of biosimilars. However, the market is still in a nascent phase of development, and early cost-saving successes are not guaranteed to persist unless sustainable market conditions are established. To better understand the perspectives of stakeholders about opportunities and threats to the sustainability of the US biosimilar market, a multistakeholder roundtable discussion was convened in December of 2023 and included health care payers, providers, self-insured employers, a manufacturer, and a biosimilar research and advocacy organization. The objective of this commentary, authored by the roundtable participants, is to posit specific opportunities and threats that stakeholders should consider to better facilitate sustainable biosimilar market conditions in the United States. We highlight key points, including (1) biosimilar price volatility with large quarter-on-quarter declines for most products; (2) perverse economic incentives that encourage providers to use more expensive reference products because reimbursement dynamics make them more profitable; (3) complex rebate structures that create barriers to biosimilar access; and (4) ongoing changes to the legal and regulatory environment, including evidence requirements to gain "interchangeable" status. We conclude with an overview of potential policy solutions to address the sustainability opportunities and threats. The authors welcome the opportunity to advance this dialogue toward action and encourage additional stakeholders to join the effort. We are optimistic that, through informed decision-making and compromise, we can collectively achieve a robust and sustainable US biosimilars market that appropriately benefits all stakeholders.

The Effect Of Next Generation Accountable Care Organizations On Medicare Expenditures.

The Next Generation Accountable Care Organization (NGACO) model (active during 2016-21) tested the effects of high financial risk, payment mechanisms, and flexible care delivery on health care spending and value for fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries. We used quasi-experimental methods to examine the model's effects on Medicare Parts A and B spending. Sixty-two ACOs with more than 4.2 million beneficiaries and more than 91,000 practitioners participated in the model. The model was associated with a $270 per beneficiary per year, or approximately $1.7 billion, decline in Medicare spending. After shared savings payments to ACOs were included, the model increased net Medicare spending by $56 per beneficiary per year, or $96.7 million. Annual declines in spending for the model grew over time, reflecting exit by poorer-performing NGACOs, improvement among the remaining NGACOs, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Larger declines in spending occurred among physician practice ACOs and ACOs that elected population-based payments and risk caps greater than 5 percent.

Cost avoidance of pharmacist-led deprescribing using STOPPFrail for older adults in nursing homes.

BACKGROUND: The Screening Tool of Older Persons Prescriptions in Frail adults with limited life expectancy (STOPPFrail) criteria aim to reduce inappropriate/unnecessary medications in frail older adults, which should minimise adverse drug events and additional healthcare expenditure. Little is known about the economic outcomes of applying these criteria as an intervention. AIM: To evaluate cost avoidance of pharmacist-led application of STOPPFrail to frail older nursing home residents with limited life expectancy. METHOD: Pharmacist-identified STOPPFrail-defined potentially inappropriate medications that were deprescribed by patients' general practitioners were assigned a rating by a multidisciplinary panel, i.e. the probability of an adverse drug event occurring if the medication was not deprescribed. The intervention's net cost benefit and cost-benefit ratio were then determined by factoring in adverse drug event cost avoidance (calculated from probability of adverse drug event ratings), direct cost savings (deprescribed medication costs/reimbursement fees), and healthcare professionals' salaries. RESULTS: Of the 176 potentially inappropriate medications deprescribed across 69 patients, 65 (36.9%) were rated as having a medium or high probability of an adverse drug event occurring if not deprescribed. With €27,162 for direct cost savings, €61,336 for adverse drug event cost avoidance, and €2,589 for healthcare professionals' salary costs, there was a net cost benefit of €85,909 overall. The cost-benefit ratio was 33.2 and remained positive in all scenarios in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Pharmacist-led application of STOPPFrail to frail older nursing home residents is associated with significant cost avoidance. Wider implementation of pharmacist interventions in frail older nursing home residents should be considered to reduce potentially inappropriate medications and patient harm, alongside substantial cost savings for healthcare systems.

Comparing Costs and Healthcare Resource Utilization (HCRU) Using LAMA versus LABA/ICS at Treatment Initiation for COPD: Findings from CITRUS (Comparing the Incidence of Tiotropium and ICS/LABA in Real-World Use in South Korea) Study.

Background: COPD causes substantial economic burden on healthcare. Alternative treatment strategies for COPD can be associated with different costs dependent upon their relative safety and effectiveness. We compared costs and healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) associated with LAMA or LABA/ICS initiation. Methods: Using the Korean National Health Insurance Service database, we enrolled COPD patients initiating treatment with LAMA or LABA/ICS between January 2005 and April 2015. Propensity score matched individuals were compared on all-cause and COPD-related medical costs and HCRU over a three-year follow-up period. Results: A total of 2444 patients were enrolled in each treatment group. LAMA group was associated with significantly lower costs than LABA/ICS group, both in all-cause (403.08 vs 474.50 USD per patient per month [PPPM], cost ratio 1.18, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.10-1.26, p<0.0001) and COPD-related (216.37 vs 267.32 USD PPPM, cost ratio 1.24, 95% CI=1.13-1.35, p<0.0001) medical costs. All-cause HCRU was not significantly different between groups, while COPD-related HRCU was higher in LAMA group (0.66 vs 0.60 medical visits PPPM, p<0.0001). Conclusion: COPD patients initiating treatment with LAMA were associated with lower all-cause and COPD-related medical costs than those starting with LABA/ICS despite the similar all-cause HCRU and higher COPD-related HCRU. Initiation with LAMA is a cost-efficient option for the treatment of COPD.

Improved Patient Engagement and Cost Savings Through a Novel Medication Review Process.

Pharmacist-led interventions are pivotal in identifying and resolving potential adverse drug events (pADEs) while enhancing blood pressure control and medication adherence through educational and counseling interventions. This practice brief outlines the outcomes of the Blue Bag Initiative (BBI), which enhanced pharmacist-led comprehensive medication reviews (CMRs) across community pharmacies in Virginia under Center for Disease Control Cooperative Agreement NU58DP006535. BBI yielded a rate of 131.6 pADEs identified per 100 participants and demonstrated cost savings of 1 to 3 million dollars for the health care system. This report underscores the significance of a standardized, pharmacist-led CMR as integral to interdisciplinary team-based care models within physician practices, facilitating medication therapy management implementation. Enhanced CMR can improve cardiovascular health outcomes while reducing health care expenditures by augmenting patient engagement and medication adherence. This study thus highlights the efficacy and potential of pharmacist-led interventions in increasing access to and optimizing patient care.

A danish healthcare-focused economic evaluation of first-line cryoballoon ablation versus antiarrhythmic drug therapy for the treatment of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.

INTRODUCTION: Three randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated that first-line cryoballoon pulmonary vein isolation decreases atrial tachycardia in patients with symptomatic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) compared with antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs). The aim of this study was to develop a cost-effectiveness model (CEM) for first-line cryoablation compared with first-line AADs for the treatment of PAF. The model used a Danish healthcare perspective. METHODS: Individual patient-level data from the Cryo-FIRST, STOP AF and EARLY-AF RCTs were used to parameterise the CEM. The model structure consisted of a hybrid decision tree (one-year time horizon) and a Markov model (40-year time horizon, with a three-month cycle length). Health-related quality of life was expressed in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Costs and benefits were discounted at 3% per year. Model outcomes were produced using probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: First-line cryoablation is dominant, meaning it results in lower costs (-€2,663) and more QALYs (0.18) when compared to first-line AADs. First-line cryoablation also has a 99.96% probability of being cost-effective, at a cost-effectiveness threshold of €23,200 per QALY gained. Regardless of initial treatment, patients were expected to receive ∼ 1.2 ablation procedures over a lifetime horizon. CONCLUSION: First-line cryoablation is both more effective and less costly (i.e. dominant), when compared with AADs for patients with symptomatic PAF in a Danish healthcare system.

Estimated reduction in obesity prevalence and costs of a 20% and 30% ad valorem excise tax to sugar-sweetened beverages in Brazil: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with obesity, metabolic diseases, and incremental healthcare costs. Given their health consequences, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended that countries implement taxes on SSB. Over the last 10 years, obesity prevalence has almost doubled in Brazil, yet, in 2016, the Brazilian government cut the existing federal SSB taxes to their current 4%. Since 2022, a bill to impose a 20% tax on SSB has been under discussion in the Brazilian Senate. To simulate the potential impact of increasing taxes on SSB in Brazil, we aimed to estimate the price-elasticity of SSB and the potential impact of a new 20% or 30% excise SSB tax on consumption, obesity prevalence, and cost savings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using household purchases data from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey (POF) from 2017/2018, we estimated constant elasticity regressions. We used a log-log specification by income level for all beverage categories: (1) sugar-sweetened beverages; (2) alcoholic beverages; (3) unsweetened beverages; and (4) low-calorie or artificially sweetened beverages. We estimated the adult nationwide baseline intake for each beverage category using 24-h dietary recall data collected in 2017/2018. Taking group one as the taxed beverages, we applied the price and cross-price elasticities to the baseline intake data, we obtained changes in caloric intake. The caloric reduction was introduced into an individual dynamic model to estimate changes in weight and obesity prevalence. No benefits on cost savings were modeled during the first 3 years of intervention to account for the time lag in obesity cases to reduce costs. We multiplied the reduction in obesity cases during 7 years by the obesity costs per capita to predict the costs savings attributable to the sweetened beverage tax. SSB price elasticities were higher among the lowest tertile of income (-1.24) than in the highest income tertile (-1.13), and cross-price elasticities suggest SSB were weakly substituted by milk, water, and 100% fruit juices. We estimated a caloric change of -17.3 kcal/day/person under a 20% excise tax and -25.9 kcal/day/person under a 30% tax. Ten years after implementation, a 20% tax is expected to reduce obesity prevalence by 6.7%; 9.1% for a 30% tax. These reductions translate into a -2.8 million and -3.8 million obesity cases for a 20% and 30% tax, respectively, and a reduction of $US 13.3 billion and $US 17.9 billion in obesity costs over 10 years for a 20% and 30% tax, respectively. Study limitations include using a quantile distribution method to adjust self-reported baseline weight and height, which could be insufficient to correct for reporting bias; also, weight, height, and physical activity were assumed to be steady over time. CONCLUSIONS: Adding a 20% to 30% excise tax on top of Brazil's current federal tax could help to reduce the consumption of ultra-processed beverages, empty calories, and body weight while avoiding large health-related costs. Given the recent cuts to SSB taxes in Brazil, a program to revise and implement excise taxes could prove beneficial for the Brazilian population.