Mortalidad por COVID-19: desigualdades educativas y contexto socio-espacial en dos provincias de Argentina / Mortality from COVID-19: educational inequalities and socio-spatial context in two provinces of Argentina

Con el objetivo de describir la asociación entre las características sociodemográficas y factores contex-tuales con la mortalidad por COVID-19, durante 2020-2021 en las provincias de Mendoza y San Juan en Argentina se realizó un estudio de tipo ecológico, donde los factores sociodemográficos fueron la edad, el sexo y el nivel educativo y contextuales la pobreza y la urbanización a nivel departamental. Los análisis se estimaron mediante modelos jerárquicos bayesianos binomial negativos.Existieron desigualdades edu-cacionales independientemente del contexto socioeconómico y el nivel de urbanización. La excepción fue el grupo etario de 65 a más años durante 2021 que, independientemente del nivel educativo, mostró un riesgo de muerte por COVID-19 mayor en departamentos con niveles altos de pobreza estructural. En conclusión, la desigualdad educativa es un indicador de desigualdad social que aumenta la vulnera-bilidad para la mortalidad por COVID-19.

Covid-19: análises e representações da pandemia no estado do Rio de Janeiro / Covid-19: analyzes and representations of the pandemic in the state of Rio de Janeiro

Este livro teve o propósito de reunir trabalhos científicos de excelência, de diferentes instituições de nível superior no Estado do Rio de Janeiro (ERJ), cujo o objetivo foi analisar, a partir de representações espaciais, o avanço da COVID-19 em diferentes escalas e regiões no ERJ. Os capítulos aqui apresentados retratam o período inicial da pandemia, ou seja, os primeiros 9 ou 10 meses de 2020, onde ainda não tínhamos vacinas, e o único recurso disponível e eficaz contra a doença era o uso de máscaras e as restrições de mobilidade das pessoas.

Covid-19: análises e representações da pandemia no estado do Rio de Janeiro / Covid-19: analyzes and representations of the pandemic in the state of Rio de Janeiro

Discute os resultados de pesquisa sobre a pandemia em nove distintos recortes espaciais no Estado do Rio de Janeiro buscando representar a diversidades, tais como Baixada Fluminense, Leste Fluminense, Médio Vale do Paraíba e Norte Fluminense, mostrando a mudança de ritmo de casos de contaminação e óbitos incluindo fatores socioeconômicos e geográficos

COVID-19 y adultos mayores: comparación espaciotemporal entre mortalidad y vacunación en la provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina / COVID-19 and older adults: spatiotemporal comparison between mortality and vaccination in the province of Buenos Aires, Argentina

RESUMEN El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar las variaciones espaciotemporales de la mortalidad por COVID-19 en adultos mayores y de la vacunación contra la COVID-19 en esta población. Se utilizaron datos de defunciones por COVID-19 y de personas de 70 a más años inmunizadas con la primera dosis de vacunas contra esta enfermedad, en partidos de la provincia de Buenos Aires, desde el 29 de diciembre del 2020 al 30 de junio de 2021. Se emplearon técnicas de escaneo espaciotemporal para detectar conglomerados. Los partidos del Gran Buenos Aires que tuvieron mayor vacunación con la primera dosis de la vacuna Sputnik V en población de 70 a más años, entre mediados de marzo y principios de abril de 2021, coincidieron mayormente en registrar una disminución de la mortalidad en esta población, entre finales de abril y finales de junio de 2021. Este estudio mostró algunos indicios del impacto positivo de la aplicación de la primera dosis de la vacuna Sputnik V en el Gran Buenos Aires.

ABSTRACT The aim of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of COVID-19 mortality and vaccination against COVID-19 in older adults. We used data from deaths due to COVID-19 and persons aged 70 years and older immunized with the first dose of vaccines against this disease, from districts of the province of Buenos Aires, between December 29, 2020, and June 30, 2021. Spatiotemporal scanning techniques were used to detect clusters. The parties of Greater Buenos Aires that had the highest vaccination rate with the first dose of the Sputnik V vaccine in population aged 70 years and older, between mid-March and early April 2021, also registered a decrease in mortality in this population, between the end of April and the end of June 2021. This study showed some signs of the positive impact associated with the application of the first dose of Sputnik V vaccine in Greater Buenos Aires.

Characterization of the virome associated with Haemagogus mosquitoes in Trinidad, West Indies.

Currently, there are increasing concerns about the possibility of a new epidemic due to emerging reports of Mayaro virus (MAYV) fever outbreaks in areas of South and Central America. Haemagogus mosquitoes, the primary sylvan vectors of MAYV are poorly characterized and a better understanding of the mosquito's viral transmission dynamics and interactions with MAYV and other microorganisms would be important in devising effective control strategies. In this study, a metatranscriptomic based approach was utilized to determine the prevalence of RNA viruses in field-caught mosquitoes morphologically identified as Haemagogus janthinomys from twelve (12) forest locations in Trinidad, West Indies. Known insect specific viruses including the Phasi Charoen-like and Humaiata-Tubiacanga virus dominated the virome of the mosquitoes throughout sampling locations while other viruses such as the avian leukosis virus, MAYV and several unclassified viruses had a narrower distribution. Additionally, assembled contigs from the Ecclesville location suggests the presence of a unique uncharacterized picorna-like virus. Mapping of RNA sequencing reads to reference mitochondrial sequences of potential feeding host animals showed hits against avian and rodent sequences, which putatively adds to the growing body of evidence of a potentially wide feeding host-range for the Haemagogus mosquito vector.

The impact of inequalities and health expenditure on mortality due to oral and oropharyngeal cancer in Brazil.

This study aims to assess the magnitude and trend of mortality rates due to oral (OC) and oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) in the 133 Intermediate Geographic Regions (IGR) of Brazil between 1996 and 2018 and to analyze its association with sociodemographic variables and provision of health services. It also aims to compare the trend of mortality from neoplasms that have been reported as associated with HPV (OPC) with the trend of neoplasms that have been reported as not associated with HPV (OC). We obtained mortality data from the Mortality Information System in Brazil and analyzed the trends using the Prais-Winsten method. Then, we assessed the relationship between mortality trends and socioeconomic, health spending, and health services provision variables. The median of the annual percent change of the country's mortality rates was 0.63% for OC and 0.83% for OPC. Trends in mortality in the IGRs correlated significantly with the Human Development Index and government expenditure on ambulatory health care and hospitalizations. Mortality from both types of cancer decreased in those IGR in which the government spent more on health and in the more socioeconomically developed ones. This study found no epidemiological indication that HPV plays the leading etiological factor in OPC in Brazil.

Hepatitis E Virus in People Who Use Crack-Cocaine: A Cross-Sectional Study in a Remote Region of Northern Brazil.

People who use crack-cocaine (PWUCC) have numerous vulnerabilities and pose a challenge to health and social assistance services. The exposure to pathogens and risk situations occur differently according to each individual, region and social group. This study identified the presence, genotypes and factors associated with hepatitis E virus (HEV) exposure among a community-recruited cohort of 437 PWUCC in northern Brazil. Epidemiological information was collected through community-based assessments and interviews. Thereafter, blood and fecal samples were collected and tested for HEV using an immunoenzymatic assay, and the genotype was identified by PCR. Logistic regressions were used to identify the risk factors independently associated with exposure to HEV. In total, 79 (18.1%) PWUCC were exposed to HEV: 73 (16.7%) for IgG and six for IgG + IgM. HEV RNA was detected in six fecal samples and in two blood samples from PWUCC with IgM + IgG. Subtype 3c was identified in all of the samples. The factors associated with exposure to HEV were low monthly income, unstable housing (e.g., homelessness), crack-cocaine use ≥40 months, and the shared use of crack-cocaine equipment. The current study provides unique initial insights into HEV status and risk factors among PWUCC in a remote area in Brazil, with diverse implications for urgently improved diagnosis, prevention, and treatment intervention needs.

An Overview of Equine Influenza in South America.

Equine influenza virus (EIV) is one of the most important respiratory pathogens of horses as outbreaks of the disease lead to significant economic losses worldwide. In this review, we summarize the information available on equine influenza (EI) in South America. In the region, the major events of EI occurred almost in the same period in the different countries, and the EIV isolated showed high genetic identity at the hemagglutinin gene level. It is highly likely that the continuous movement of horses, some of them subclinically infected, among South American countries, facilitated the spread of the virus. Although EI vaccination is mandatory for mobile or congregates equine populations in the region, EI outbreaks continuously threaten the equine industry. Vaccine breakdown could be related to the fact that many of the commercial vaccines available in the region contain out-of-date EIV strains, and some of them even lack reliable information about immunogenicity and efficacy. This review highlights the importance of disease surveillance and reinforces the need to harmonize quarantine and biosecurity protocols, and encourage vaccine manufacturer companies to carry out quality control procedures and update the EIV strains in their products.

Geospatial Analysis of COVID-19: A Scoping Review.

The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, China in late December 2019 became the harbinger of the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic, geospatial techniques, such as modeling and mapping, have helped in disease pattern detection. Here we provide a synthesis of the techniques and associated findings in relation to COVID-19 and its geographic, environmental, and socio-demographic characteristics, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) methodology for scoping reviews. We searched PubMed for relevant articles and discussed the results separately for three categories: disease mapping, exposure mapping, and spatial epidemiological modeling. The majority of studies were ecological in nature and primarily carried out in China, Brazil, and the USA. The most common spatial methods used were clustering, hotspot analysis, space-time scan statistic, and regression modeling. Researchers used a wide range of spatial and statistical software to apply spatial analysis for the purpose of disease mapping, exposure mapping, and epidemiological modeling. Factors limiting the use of these spatial techniques were the unavailability and bias of COVID-19 data-along with scarcity of fine-scaled demographic, environmental, and socio-economic data-which restrained most of the researchers from exploring causal relationships of potential influencing factors of COVID-19. Our review identified geospatial analysis in COVID-19 research and highlighted current trends and research gaps. Since most of the studies found centered on Asia and the Americas, there is a need for more comparable spatial studies using geographically fine-scaled data in other areas of the world.

Insecticide resistance and underlying targets-site and metabolic mechanisms in Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus from Lahore, Pakistan.

Insecticide resistant Aedes populations have recently been reported in Pakistan, imposing a threat to their control. We aimed to evaluate the susceptibility of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus populations from Lahore to WHO-recommended insecticides and to investigate metabolic and target-site resistance mechanisms. For this purpose, we first carried out bioassays with the larvicides temephos and pyriproxyfen, and the adulticides malathion, permethrin, deltamethrin, alpha-cypermethrin, and etofenprox. We looked for Knockdown resistance mutations (kdr) by qPCR, High-Resolution Melt (HRM), and sequencing. In order to explore the role of detoxifying enzymes in resistance, we carried out synergist bioassay with both species and then checked the expression of CYP9M6, CYP9J10, CYP9J28, CYP6BB2, CCAe3a, and SAP2 genes in Ae. aegypti. Both species were susceptible to organophosphates and the insect growth regulator, however resistant to all pyrethroids. We are reporting the kdr haplotypes 1520Ile + 1534Cys and T1520 + 1534Cys in high frequencies in Ae. aegypti while Ae. albopictus only exhibited the alteration L882M. PBO increased the sensitivity to permethrin in Ae. aegypti, suggesting the participation of P450 genes in conferring resistance, and indeed, CYP928 was highly expressed. We presume that dengue vectors in Lahore city are resistant to pyrethroids, probably due to multiple mechanisms, such as kdr mutations and P450 overexpression.

"Distribution of paternal lineages in Mestizo populations throughout Mexico: an in silico study based on Y-STR haplotypes".

The Mexican-Mestizo population arose following European contact with the Americas due to the admixture of principally Spaniards, Native Americans, and Africans around 500 years ago. Because the paternal lineage distribution of the Mexican population has been poorly investigated, this study inferred the haplogroups of ten populations based on 1859 haplotypes (Y-STR data) using two haplogroup predictor programs. In the Mexican population sample, we found predominantly European ancestry (50.1%), followed by Native American (32.5%), Eurasian (13.4%), African (2.1%), East African-South Eurasian (1.3%), and Asian (0.6%) ancestries. In general, our results support a contrary north-to-south gradient throughout the Mexican territory of European and Native-American ancestries, respectively. Moreover, the presence of West-European R1b and Sub-Saharan African E1b1a haplogroups agrees with historical and genetic data of gene flow during the European conquest. This study represents the effort to analyze these paternal lineages on a large scale by taking advantage of Y-STR haplotype data to determine the distribution and ancestry proportions in this country.

[Case fatality rate of COVID-19: absence of epidemiological pattern]. / Letalidad de la COVID-19: ausencia de patrón epidemiológico.

Objective: Analyze a set of indicators to understand the variability of the evolution and impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in a set of selected countries. Method: Ecological study of a group of countries with more than 200 reported cases. Demographic variables, health expenditure variables, and variables about characteristics of health services were included as explanatory variables. and incidence, mortality and fatality rates have been analyzed as response variables. In addition, a relative fatality index has been created. Data are from international organizations. Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to estimate the magnitude of the associations. Results: Number of tests and of medical professionals are associated with a higher incidence rate. Mortality and case fatality rate are not associated with demographic, health expenditure, or health services variables. Conclusion: Differences suggest a general underestimation of the magnitude of the epidemic. Improvement of case identification and effectiveness of epidemiological surveillance systems is necessary.

Geospatial panorama of long-term care facilities in Brazil: a portrait of territorial inequalities / Panorama geoespacial das Instituições de Longa Permanência para Idosos no Brasil: um retrato das desigualdades territoriais

OBJECTIVES: To map the number and geospatial distribution of Brazilian long-term care facilities (LTCFs) for older adults. Additionally, we sought to highlight the relationship between these findings and the number of older people in the country's 27 Federation Units, demonstrating the growth of these facilities in the last decade. METHODS: This is a descriptive observational study, using secondary data, which was performed in 3 stages: 1) searching and consolidating national and subnational data from different sources and mapping LTCFs; 2) preparing a geospatial map using Brazilian postal codes; and 3) triangulating the number of facilities and of older people in each state and all 5 Brazilian regions. RESULTS: We found 7029 LTCFs in the country, mostly in the Southeast and South regions: São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul had the highest numbers of facilities while states in the North region represented only 1.12% of Brazilian LTCFs. Geospatial mapping highlighted that 64% of the 5 570 Brazilian municipalities did not have any LTCFs for older adults. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a large difference between Brazilian regions regarding the provision of long-term care.

OBJETIVOS: Mapeamento do número e distribuição geoespacial das Instituições de Longa Permanência para idosos (ILPI) brasileiras. Além disso, procuramos destacar a relação entre estes resultados e o número de pessoas idosas nas 27 unidades de da federação, exibindo o crescimento dessas instalações na última década. METODOLOGIA: Estudo observacional descritivo, a partir de dados secundários, realizado em 3 etapas: 1) pesquisa e consolidação de dados nacionais e subnacionais de diferentes fontes e mapeamento de ILPI; 2) elaboração de mapa geoespacial utilizando o código de endereço postal do Brasil, e 3) triangulação do número de instituições com dados sobre o número dos idosos em cada estado e nas cinco regiões brasileiras. RESULTADOS: Encontramos 7.029 ILPI no país, principalmente nas regiões Sudeste e Sul: São Paulo, Minas Gerais e Rio Grande do Sul tiveram o maior número de instalações, enquanto os estados da região Norte representavam apenas 1,12% das ILPI brasileiras. O mapeamento geoespacial destacou que 64% dos 5 570 municípios brasileiros não possuem ILPI para os idosos. CONCLUSÕES: Observamos uma grande diferença no Brasil em relação à prestação de cuidados de longa duração.

Evaluation of Two Real-Time, TaqMan Reverse Transcription-PCR Assays for Detection of Rabies Virus in Circulating Variants from Argentina: Influence of Sequence Variation.

In rabies diagnosis, it is essential to count on a rapid test to give a quick response. The combined sensitivity and robustness of the TaqMan RT-PCR assays (qRT-PCR) have made these methods a valuable alternative for rabies virus (RABV) detection. We conducted a study to compare the applicability of two widely used qRT-PCR assays targeting the nucleoprotein gene (LysGT1 assay) and leader sequences (LN34 qRT-PCR assay) of RABV genomes, in all variants circulating in Argentina. A total of 44 samples obtained from bats, dogs, cattle, and horses, that were previously tested for rabies by FAT and conventional RT-PCR, were used in the study. All variants were successfully detected by the pan-lyssavirus LN34 qRT-PCR assay. The LysGT1 assay failed to detect three bat-related variants. We further sequenced the region targeted by LysGT1 and demonstrated that the presence of three or more mismatches with respect to the primers and probe sequences precludes viral detection. We conclude that the LysGT1 assay is prone to yield variant-dependent false-negative test results, and in consequence, the LN34 assay would ensure more effective detection of RABV in Argentina.

Benchmarking of public health surveillance of COVID-19 in Colombia: First semester / [Evaluación comparativa de la vigilancia en salud pública de COVID-19 en Colombia: primer semestre].

Introduction: Public health surveillance together with good sanitary decisions is essential for the proper management of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Objective: To compare the performance of Colombian departments based on the quality of the data and to build the national ranking. Materials and methods: We analyzed the accumulated cases published between March 6 and September 1, 2020, by the Instituto Nacional de Salud. To achieve comparability, the analyses considered the day the first case was diagnosed as the first analysis date for each department. The fulfillment of Benford's law was assessed with p-values in the log-likelihood ratio or chi-square tests. The analysis was completed with the lethality observed in each department and then the performance ranking was established. Results: Bogotá and Valle del Cauca had optimal public health surveillance performance all along. The data suggest that Antioquia, Nariño, and Tolima had good containment and adequate public health surveillance after the economic opening beginning on June 1, 2020. Conclusion: We obtained the ranking of the departments regarding the quality of public health surveillance data. The best five departments can be case studies to identify the elements associated with good performance.

Introducción. La vigilancia en salud pública y las decisiones sanitarias recomendadas son fundamentales para el manejo adecuado de la pandemia de SARS-CoV-2. Objetivo. Hacer una evaluación comparativa del desempeño de los departamentos colombianos de este atributo del sistema de vigilancia con base en la calidad de los datos y construir la clasificación nacional según el desempeño. Materiales y métodos. Se analizaron los casos acumulados publicados por el Instituto Nacional de Salud entre el 6 de marzo y el 1° de septiembre de 2020. Para la comparación, los análisis consideraron el día en que se diagnosticó el primer caso como la primera fecha de análisis de cada departamento. El cumplimiento de la ley de Benford se evaluó con los valores de p en las pruebas de razón del logaritmo de la verosimilitud o ji al cuadrado. Se completó el análisis del atributo de calidad del dato con la letalidad observada en cada departamento, y se estableció la clasificación según el desempeño. Resultados. La ciudad de Bogotá y el departamento del Valle del Cauca tuvieron un desempeño óptimo en la vigilancia en salud pública durante todo el periodo observado. Los datos sugieren que los departamentos de Antioquia, Nariño y Tolima tuvieron una buena contención y una adecuada vigilancia en salud pública después de la apertura económica iniciada el 1° de junio de 2020. Conclusión. Se obtuvo una clasificación de los departamentos y de Bogotá según la calidad de los datos de vigilancia en salud pública. Los mejores cinco entes territoriales pueden ser casos de estudio para determinar los elementos asociados con el buen desempeño.

Zika Virus Disease and Pregnancy Outcomes in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: In 2015 and 2016, Colombia had a widespread outbreak of Zika virus. Data from two national population-based surveillance systems for symptomatic Zika virus disease (ZVD) and birth defects provided complementary information on the effect of the Zika virus outbreak on pregnancies and infant outcomes. METHODS: We collected national surveillance data regarding cases of pregnant women with ZVD that were reported during the period from June 2015 through July 2016. The presence of Zika virus RNA was identified in a subgroup of these women on real-time reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. Brain or eye defects in infants and fetuses and other adverse pregnancy outcomes were identified among the women who had laboratory-confirmed ZVD and for whom data were available regarding pregnancy outcomes. We compared the nationwide prevalence of brain and eye defects during the outbreak with the prevalence both before and after the outbreak period. RESULTS: Of 18,117 pregnant women with ZVD, the presence of Zika virus was confirmed in 5926 (33%) on rRT-PCR. Of the 5673 pregnancies with laboratory-confirmed ZVD for which outcomes had been reported, 93 infants or fetuses (2%) had brain or eye defects. The incidence of brain or eye defects was higher among pregnancies in which the mother had an onset of ZVD symptoms in the first trimester than in those with an onset during the second or third trimester (3% vs. 1%). A total of 172 of 5673 pregnancies (3%) resulted in pregnancy loss; after the exclusion of pregnancies affected by birth defects, 409 of 5426 (8%) resulted in preterm birth and 333 of 5426 (6%) in low birth weight. The prevalence of brain or eye defects during the outbreak was 13 per 10,000 live births, as compared with a prevalence of 8 per 10,000 live births before the outbreak and 11 per 10,000 live births after the outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: In pregnant women with laboratory-confirmed ZVD, brain or eye defects in infants or fetuses were more common during the Zika virus outbreak than during the periods immediately before and after the outbreak. The frequency of such defects was increased among women with a symptom onset early in pregnancy. (Funded by the Colombian Instituto Nacional de Salud and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).

Zika epidemic and microcephaly in Brazil: Challenges for access to health care and promotion in three epidemic areas.

Since 2015 Brazil has experienced the social repercussions of the Zika virus epidemic, thus raising a debate about: difficulties of diagnosis; healthcare access for children with Zika Congenital Syndrome (ZCS); the search for benefits by affected families; social and gender inequalities; and a discussion on reproductive rights, among others. The objective of this article is to analyse access to specialized health services for the care of children born with ZCS in three North-eastern states of Brazil. This is an exploratory cross-sectional study which analyses recorded cases of microcephaly at the municipal level between 2015 and 2017. Most of the cases of ZCS were concentrated on the Northeast coast. Rio Grande do Norte and Paraiba had the highest incidence of microcephaly in the study period. The states of Bahia, Paraiba and Rio Grande do Norte were selected for their high incidence of microcephaly due to the Zika Virus. Socio-territorial vulnerability was stratified using access to microcephaly diagnosis and treatment indicators. The specialized care network was mapped according to State Health Secretaries Protocols. A threshold radius of 100 km was stablished as the maximum distance from municipalities centroids to specialised health care for children with microcephaly. Prenatal coverage was satisfactory in most of the study area, although availability of ultrasound equipment was uneven within states and health regions. Western Bahia had the lowest coverage of ultrasound equipment and lacked health rehabilitation services. ZCS's specialized health services were spread out over large areas, some of which were outside the affected patients' home municipalities, so displacements were expensive and very time consuming, representing an extra burden for the affected families. This study is the first to address accessibility of children with microcephaly to specialised health care services and points to the urgent need to expand coverage of these services in Brazil, especially in the northeastern states, which are most affected by the epidemic.

DISPERSION OF A NEW CORONAVIRUS SARS-COV-2 BY AIRLINES IN 2020: TEMPORAL ESTIMATES OF THE OUTBREAK IN MEXICO.

BACKGROUND: On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Regardless of this measure, the new infection has spread to several countries around the world. OBJECTIVE: We developed a method to study the dissemination of this infection by airline routes and provide estimations of the time of arrival of the outbreak to different cities. METHODS: Using the Kermack and McKendrick model complemented with diffusion on a graph composed of nodes and edges, we made an analysis of COVID-19 dispersion to other cities by air travel. RESULTS: The estimation was accurate in that it was possible to predict in the middle of February 2020 the arrival of the first outbreak in Mexico, which eventually occurred between March 20 and 30. This estimation was robust with respect to small changes in epidemiological parameters at the other nodes. CONCLUSIONS: The estimation of the time of arrival of the outbreak from its epicenter, allows for a time period to implement and strengthen preventive measures aimed at the general population as well as to strengthen hospital infrastructure and training of human resources. In the present study, this estimation was accurate, as observed from the real data of the beginning of the outbreak in Mexico City up to April 6, 2020.

Prevalence of congenital malformations and deformities of the osteomuscular system in live newborns in Mexico, 2008-2017.

BACKGROUND: From 2009 to 2010 in Mexico. CMDOMS prevalence was 27.4/10,000 births. The first places were congenital deformation of the feet with a prevalence of 8.0 and congenital deformation of the hip with 6.7/10,000 births. OBJECTIVE: To estimate for Mexico the national prevalence of CMDOMS in live births, by state and municipality, as well as to analyze spatial distribution by these same territorial delimitations. METHOD: A database of 20,175,422 newborns (NB) alive from 2008 to 2017 was integrated. Percentages and prevalence were calculated at the national level, federal entities and municipalities, with confidence intervals at 95%. Maps were made and prevalence was stratified. RESULTS: The congenital malformation prevalence rate was 77.8/10,000 NB. CMDOMS were in first place with 40.8% and a prevalence of 31.8/10,000 NB. Prevalence by federal entity presented a range of 8.0-75.8/10,000 NB, were stratified by states and municipalities for presentation on maps. CONCLUSION: In Mexico for the years 2008-2017 an increase in CMDOMS prevalence was observed globally and in particular of some specific causes.

ANTECEDENTES: En México, de 2009 a 2010, la prevalencia de las malformaciones y deformidades congénitas del sistema osteomuscular (MDCSOM) fue de 27.4 por 10,000 nacimientos. Los primeros lugares los ocuparon la deformación congénita de los pies, con una prevalencia de 8.0, y la deformación congénita de la cadera, con 6.7 por 10,000 nacimientos. OBJETIVO: Estimar para México la prevalencia nacional de MDCSOM en nacidos vivos (NV), por entidad federativa y municipio, y analizar su distribución espacial por esas mismas delimitaciones territoriales. MÉTODO: Se integró una base de datos de 20,175,422 NV en 2008-2017. Se calcularon porcentajes y prevalencias por ámbito nacional, entidades federativas y municipios, con intervalos de confianza al 95%. Se elaboraron mapas y se estratificaron las prevalencias. RESULTADOS: La tasa de prevalencia de malformaciones congénitas fue de 77.8 por 10,000 NV. Se ubicaron en el primer lugar las MDCSOM, con un 40.8% y una prevalencia de 31.8 por 10,000 NV. Las prevalencias por entidad federativa presentaron un rango de 8.0 a 75.8 por 10,000 NV; se estratificaron por estados y municipios para su presentación en mapas. CONCLUSIÓN: En México, para los años 2008-2017, se observa un incremento en las prevalencias de las MDCSOM en forma global y en particular por algunas causas específicas.

Dispersion of a new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 by airlines in 2020: temporal estimates of the outbreak in Mexico

ABSTRACT Background: On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Regardless of this measure, the new infection has spread to several countries around the world. Objective: We developed a method to study the dissemination of this infection by airline routes and provide estimations of the time of arrival of the outbreak to different cities. Methods: Using the Kermack and McKendrick model complemented with diffusion on a graph composed of nodes and edges, we made an analysis of COVID-19 dispersion to other cities by air travel. Results: The estimation was accurate in that it was possible to predict in the middle of February 2020 the arrival of the first outbreak in Mexico, which eventually occurred between March 20 and 30. This estimation was robust with respect to small changes in epidemiological parameters at the other nodes. Conclusions: The estimation of the time of arrival of the outbreak from its epicenter, allows for a time period to implement and strengthen preventive measures aimed at the general population as well as to strengthen hospital infrastructure and training of human resources. In the present study, this estimation was accurate, as observed from the real data of the beginning of the outbreak in Mexico City up to April 6, 2020.