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1.
J Environ Sci (China) ; 147: 359-369, 2025 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39003053

ABSTRACT

Agricultural practices significantly contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, necessitating cleaner production technologies to reduce environmental pressure and achieve sustainable maize production. Plastic film mulching is commonly used in the Loess Plateau region. Incorporating slow-release fertilizers as a replacement for urea within this practice can reduce nitrogen losses and enhance crop productivity. Combining these techniques represents a novel agricultural approach in semi-arid areas. However, the impact of this integration on soil carbon storage (SOCS), carbon footprint (CF), and economic benefits has received limited research attention. Therefore, we conducted an eight-year study (2015-2022) in the semi-arid northwestern region to quantify the effects of four treatments [urea supplied without plastic film mulching (CK-U), slow-release fertilizer supplied without plastic film mulching (CK-S), urea supplied with plastic film mulching (PM-U), and slow-release fertilizer supplied with plastic film mulching (PM-S)] on soil fertility, economic and environmental benefits. The results revealed that nitrogen fertilizer was the primary contributor to total GHG emissions (≥71.97%). Compared to other treatments, PM-S increased average grain yield by 12.01%-37.89%, water use efficiency by 9.19%-23.33%, nitrogen accumulation by 27.07%-66.19%, and net return by 6.21%-29.57%. Furthermore, PM-S decreased CF by 12.87%-44.31% and CF per net return by 14.25%-41.16%. After eight years, PM-S increased SOCS (0-40 cm) by 2.46%, while PM-U decreased it by 7.09%. These findings highlight the positive effects of PM-S on surface soil fertility, economic gains, and environmental benefits in spring maize production on the Loess Plateau, underscoring its potential for widespread adoption and application.


Subject(s)
Agriculture , Carbon Footprint , Fertilizers , Plastics , Zea mays , Zea mays/growth & development , Agriculture/methods , China , Soil/chemistry , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Nitrogen/analysis
2.
Science ; 385(6713): eadn3747, 2024 Sep 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39236181

ABSTRACT

Agriculture's global environmental impacts are widely expected to continue expanding, driven by population and economic growth and dietary changes. This Review highlights climate change as an additional amplifier of agriculture's environmental impacts, by reducing agricultural productivity, reducing the efficacy of agrochemicals, increasing soil erosion, accelerating the growth and expanding the range of crop diseases and pests, and increasing land clearing. We identify multiple pathways through which climate change intensifies agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, creating a potentially powerful climate change-reinforcing feedback loop. The challenges raised by climate change underscore the urgent need to transition to sustainable, climate-resilient agricultural systems. This requires investments that both accelerate adoption of proven solutions that provide multiple benefits, and that discover and scale new beneficial processes and food products.


Subject(s)
Agriculture , Climate Change , Greenhouse Gases , Crops, Agricultural/growth & development , Environment , Agrochemicals , Soil/chemistry
3.
BMJ Open Respir Res ; 11(1)2024 Sep 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39222967

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Both physicians and patients are increasingly aware of the environmental impacts of medication. The shift of treatment paradigm towards MART-treatment (Maintenance and Reliever Therapy) in asthma affects the treatment-related emissions. The carbon footprint of inhaled medication is also tied to the type of the device used. Today the most commonly used propellant-containing pressurised metered-dose inhalers (pMDIs) have a carbon footprint typically 20-40-fold higher than propellant-free dry powder inhalers (DPIs) and soft mist inhalers. METHODS: We analysed the carbon footprint of inhaled medications in Europe using published life cycle analyses of marketed inhalers and comprehensive 2020 European sales data. In addition, we give an estimate on treatment-related emissions of different treatment regimens on Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) step 2. RESULTS: There is potential to reduce the carbon footprint of inhaled medications by 85% if DPIs are preferred over pMDIs. Emissions from pMDIs in the EU were estimated to be 4.0 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MT CO2e) and this could be reduced to 0.6 MT CO2e if DPIs were used instead. In the treatment of moderate asthma with DPI, an as-needed combination of inhaled corticosteroid and long-acting beta-agonist in a single inhaler had a substantially lower annual carbon footprint (0.8 kg CO2e) than the more traditional maintenance therapy with an inhaled corticosteroid alone with as-needed short-acting beta-agonist (2.9 kg CO2e). DISCUSSION: There has been an urgent call for healthcare to reduce its carbon footprint for appropriate patients with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), changing to non-propellant inhalers can reduce the carbon footprint of their treatment by almost 20-fold.


Subject(s)
Asthma , Carbon Footprint , Dry Powder Inhalers , Greenhouse Gases , Metered Dose Inhalers , Humans , Asthma/drug therapy , Administration, Inhalation , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Europe , Anti-Asthmatic Agents/administration & dosage
4.
Environ Monit Assess ; 196(10): 882, 2024 Sep 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39223393

ABSTRACT

The study characterized the temporal and spatial variability in greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes (CO2, CH4, and N2O) between December 2020 and November 2021 and their regulating drivers in the subtropical wetland of the Indian Himalayan foothill. Five distinct habitats (M1-sloppy surface at swamp forest, M2-plain surface at swamp forest, M3-swamp surface with small grasses, M4-marshy land with dense macrophytes, and M5-marshy land with sparse macrophytes) were studied. We conducted in situ measurements of GHG fluxes, microclimate (AT, ST, and SMC(v/v)), and soil properties (pH, EC, N, P, K, and SOC) in triplicates in all the habitat types. Across the habitats, CO2, CH4, and N2O fluxes ranged from 125 to 536 mg m-2 h-1, 0.32 to 28.4 mg m-2 h-1, and 0.16 to 3.14 mg m-2 h-1, respectively. The habitats (M3 and M5) exhibited higher GHG fluxes than the others. The CH4 flux followed the summer > autumn > spring > winter hierarchy. However, CO2 and N2O fluxes followed the summer > spring > autumn > winter. CO2 fluxes were primarily governed by ST and SOC. However, CH4 and N2O fluxes were mainly regulated by ST and SMC(v/v) across the habitats. In the case of N2O fluxes, soil P and EC also played a crucial role across the habitats. AT was a universal driver controlling all GHG fluxes across the habitats. The results emphasize that long-term GHG flux monitoring in sub-tropical Himalayan Wetlands has become imperative to accurately predict the near-future GHG fluxes and their changing nature with the ongoing climate change.


Subject(s)
Air Pollutants , Carbon Dioxide , Environmental Monitoring , Greenhouse Gases , Methane , Wetlands , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Methane/analysis , India , Air Pollutants/analysis , Carbon Dioxide/analysis , Nitrous Oxide/analysis , Ecosystem , Soil/chemistry
5.
Waste Manag ; 189: 290-299, 2024 Dec 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39222552

ABSTRACT

This study proposes a comprehensive evaluation method based on a two-stage model to assess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reductions in high-food-waste-content (HFWC) municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills. The proposed method considers typical processes such as fugitive landfill gas (LFG), LFG collection, flaring, power generation, and leachate treatment. A case study of an HFWC MSW landfill in eastern China is considered to illustrate the evaluation. The findings revealed that the GHG emissions equivalent of the case landfill amounted to 21.23 million tons from 2007 to 2022, averaging 1.03 tons CO2-eq per ton of MSW. There was a potential underestimation of LFG generation at the landfill site during the initial stages, which led to delayed LFG collection and substantial fugitive LFG emissions. Additionally, the time distribution of GHG emissions from HFWC MSW was significantly different from that of low-food-waste-content (LFWC) MSW landfills, with peak emissions occurring much earlier. Owing to the rapid degradation characteristics of HFWC MSW, the cumulative LFG production of the landfill by 2022 (2 years after the final cover) was projected to reach 77 % of the total LFG potential. In contrast, it would take until 2030 for LFWC MSW landfills to reach this level. Furthermore, various scenarios were analyzed, in which if the rapid LFG generation characteristics of HFWC MSW are known in advance, and relevant facilities are constructed ahead of time, the collection efficiency can be improved from 31 % to over 78 %, resulting in less GHG emissions.


Subject(s)
Greenhouse Gases , Refuse Disposal , Solid Waste , Waste Disposal Facilities , China , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Refuse Disposal/methods , Solid Waste/analysis , Air Pollutants/analysis , Environmental Monitoring/methods , Food
6.
Waste Manag ; 189: 314-324, 2024 Dec 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39226845

ABSTRACT

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with waste transfer and transport, incorporating derived leachate treatment-a factor often overlooked in existing research. Employing an integration model of life cycle assessment and a vehicle routing problem (VRP) methods, we evaluated the GHG reduction potential of waste transfer and transport system. Two Chinese counties with different topographies and demographics were selected, yielding 80 scenarios that factored in waste source separation as well as vehicle capacity, energy sources, and routes. The functional unit (FU) is transferring and transporting 1 tonne waste and treating derived leachate. The GHG emissions varied from 12 to 39 kg CO2 equivalent per FU. Waste source separation emerged as the most impactful mitigation strategy, not only for the studied system but for an integrated waste management system. Followings are the use of larger capacity vehicles and electrification of the vehicles. These insights are instrumental for policymakers and stakeholders in optimizing waste management systems to reduce GHG emissions.


Subject(s)
Greenhouse Gases , Waste Management , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Waste Management/methods , China , Refuse Disposal/methods , Transportation , Models, Theoretical , Air Pollutants/analysis , Carbon Dioxide/analysis
7.
An Acad Bras Cienc ; 96(suppl 1): e20240345, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39258703

ABSTRACT

The agricultural sector is one of the most polluting economic activities, contributing significantly to greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions. Brazil is one of the largest agricultural producers worldwide and plays a major role in reducing the environmental impact of this sector. Here, we aimed to determine the impact of the agricultural sector, with special attention to production, prices, and trade openness, on the short- and long-term GHGs emissions of Brazilian agriculture. Employing data from 1974 to 2019, we tested the cointegration of variables and compared the determinants of GHG emissions using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methods. Our results show a long-term equilibrium trend for Brazilian agricultural GHGs emissions, a result that correlates with emerging environmental compliance, and society demands the adoption of sustainable technologies, processes, and policies. In the short run, both cattle herds and Agricultural Added Value to GDP per capita showed an expected positive and significant contribution to GHGs emissions, while agricultural crop area demonstrated an inverse relationship. The trade openness index confirmed that foreign trade plays an important role in reducing GHGs emissions. The price index is not significant in our models. Both the private and public sectors have important roles in sustainable agriculture, especially in increasing system efficiency through the adoption of management and technologies that reduce GHG emissions levels.


Subject(s)
Agriculture , Greenhouse Gases , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Brazil , Environmental Monitoring/methods
8.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(9): e17462, 2024 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39234688

ABSTRACT

Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) with atmospheric concentrations that have nearly tripled since pre-industrial times. Wetlands account for a large share of global CH4 emissions, yet the magnitude and factors controlling CH4 fluxes in tidal wetlands remain uncertain. We synthesized CH4 flux data from 100 chamber and 9 eddy covariance (EC) sites across tidal marshes in the conterminous United States to assess controlling factors and improve predictions of CH4 emissions. This effort included creating an open-source database of chamber-based GHG fluxes (https://doi.org/10.25573/serc.14227085). Annual fluxes across chamber and EC sites averaged 26 ± 53 g CH4 m-2 year-1, with a median of 3.9 g CH4 m-2 year-1, and only 25% of sites exceeding 18 g CH4 m-2 year-1. The highest fluxes were observed at fresh-oligohaline sites with daily maximum temperature normals (MATmax) above 25.6°C. These were followed by frequently inundated low and mid-fresh-oligohaline marshes with MATmax ≤25.6°C, and mesohaline sites with MATmax >19°C. Quantile regressions of paired chamber CH4 flux and porewater biogeochemistry revealed that the 90th percentile of fluxes fell below 5 ± 3 nmol m-2 s-1 at sulfate concentrations >4.7 ± 0.6 mM, porewater salinity >21 ± 2 psu, or surface water salinity >15 ± 3 psu. Across sites, salinity was the dominant predictor of annual CH4 fluxes, while within sites, temperature, gross primary productivity (GPP), and tidal height controlled variability at diel and seasonal scales. At the diel scale, GPP preceded temperature in importance for predicting CH4 flux changes, while the opposite was observed at the seasonal scale. Water levels influenced the timing and pathway of diel CH4 fluxes, with pulsed releases of stored CH4 at low to rising tide. This study provides data and methods to improve tidal marsh CH4 emission estimates, support blue carbon assessments, and refine national and global GHG inventories.


Subject(s)
Greenhouse Gases , Methane , Wetlands , Methane/analysis , Methane/metabolism , United States , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Temperature , Environmental Monitoring , Seasons
9.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(8): e17470, 2024 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39149882

ABSTRACT

Micro/nanoplastic (MNP) pollution in soil ecosystems has become a growing environmental concern globally. However, the comprehensive impacts of MNPs on soil health have not yet been explored. We conducted a hierarchical meta-analysis of over 5000 observations from 228 articles to assess the broad impacts of MNPs on soil health parameters (represented by 20 indicators relevant to crop growth, animal health, greenhouse gas emissions, microbial diversity, and pollutant transfer) and whether the impacts depended on MNP properties. We found that MNP exposure significantly inhibited crop biomass and germination, and reduced earthworm growth and survival rate. Under MNP exposure, the emissions of soil greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O, and CH4) were significantly increased. MNP exposure caused a decrease in soil bacteria diversity. Importantly, the magnitude of impact of the soil-based parameters was dependent on MNP dose and size; however, there is no significant difference in MNP type (biodegradable and conventional MNPs). Moreover, MNPs significantly reduced As uptake by plants, but promoted plant Cd accumulation. Using an analytical hierarchy process, we quantified the negative impacts of MNP exposure on soil health as a mean value of -10.2% (-17.5% to -2.57%). Overall, this analysis provides new insights for assessing potential risks of MNP pollution to soil ecosystem functions.


Subject(s)
Oligochaeta , Soil Microbiology , Soil Pollutants , Soil , Soil Pollutants/analysis , Soil Pollutants/toxicity , Soil Pollutants/adverse effects , Animals , Soil/chemistry , Microplastics/analysis , Microplastics/toxicity , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Nanoparticles/analysis , Crops, Agricultural/growth & development
10.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 17973, 2024 08 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39095518

ABSTRACT

Inhalational anaesthetic agents are routinely used in veterinary anaesthesia practices, yet their consumption contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impact. We conducted a 55-day observational study at a veterinary teaching hospital in Switzerland, monitoring isoflurane and sevoflurane consumption across small, equine and farm animal clinics and analysed the resulting environmental impact. Results revealed that in total, 9.36 L of isoflurane and 1.27 L of sevoflurane were used to anaesthetise 409 animals across 1,489 h. Consumption rates varied among species, with small and farm animals ranging between 8.7 and 13 mL/h, while equine anaesthesia exhibited a higher rate, 41.2 mL/h. Corresponding to 7.36 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in total environmental emissions or between 2.4 and 31.3 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent per hour. Comparison to human anaesthesia settings showed comparable consumption rates to small animals, suggesting shared environmental implications, albeit on a smaller scale. This research highlights the importance of continued evaluation of veterinary anaesthesia practices to balance patient safety with environmental stewardship; potential mitigation strategies are explored and discussed.


Subject(s)
Anesthetics, Inhalation , Hospitals, Animal , Hospitals, Teaching , Animals , Anesthetics, Inhalation/administration & dosage , Horses , Switzerland , Isoflurane/administration & dosage , Humans , Sevoflurane/administration & dosage , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Anesthesia, Inhalation/veterinary
11.
World J Microbiol Biotechnol ; 40(10): 300, 2024 Aug 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39134917

ABSTRACT

Livestock production significantly contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions particularly methane (CH4) emissions thereby influencing climate change. To address this issue further, it is crucial to establish strategies that simultaneously increase ruminant productivity while minimizing GHG emissions, particularly from cattle, sheep, and goats. Recent advancements have revealed the potential for modulating the rumen microbial ecosystem through genetic selection to reduce methane (CH4) production, and by microbial genome editing including CRISPR/Cas9, TALENs (Transcription Activator-Like Effector Nucleases), ZFNs (Zinc Finger Nucleases), RNA interference (RNAi), Pime editing, Base editing and double-stranded break-free (DSB-free). These technologies enable precise genetic modifications, offering opportunities to enhance traits that reduce environmental impact and optimize metabolic pathways. Additionally, various nutrition-related measures have shown promise in mitigating methane emissions to varying extents. This review aims to present a future-oriented viewpoint on reducing methane emissions from ruminants by leveraging CRISPR/Cas9 technology to engineer the microbial consortia within the rumen. The ultimate objective is to develop sustainable livestock production methods that effectively decrease methane emissions, while maintaining animal health and productivity.


Subject(s)
CRISPR-Cas Systems , Gene Editing , Greenhouse Gases , Livestock , Methane , Rumen , Methane/metabolism , Animals , Rumen/microbiology , Rumen/metabolism , Gene Editing/methods , Greenhouse Gases/metabolism , Cattle , Goats , Microbial Consortia , Sheep , Bacteria/metabolism , Bacteria/genetics , Bacteria/classification , Gastrointestinal Microbiome , Ruminants/microbiology
12.
J Environ Manage ; 367: 121955, 2024 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39096728

ABSTRACT

This study aims to address a critical gap in the literature by examining the incorporation of uncertainty in measuring carbon emissions using the greenhouse gas (GHG) Protocol methodology across all three scopes. By comprehensively considering the various dimensions of CO2 emissions within the context of organizational activities, our research contributes significantly to the existing body of knowledge. We address challenges such as data quality issues and a high prevalence of missing values by using information entropy, techniques for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), and an artificial neural network (ANN) to analyze the contextual variables. Our findings, derived from the data sample of 56 companies across 18 sectors and 13 Brazilian states between 2017 and 2019, reveal that Scope 3 emissions exhibit the highest levels of information entropy. Additionally, we highlight the pivotal role of public policies in enhancing the availability of GHG emissions data, which, in turn, positively impacts policy-making practices. By demonstrating the potential for a virtuous cycle between improved information availability and enhanced policy outcomes, our research underscores the importance of addressing uncertainty in carbon emissions measurement for advancing effective climate change mitigation strategies.


Subject(s)
Climate Change , Greenhouse Gases , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Brazil , Entropy , Environmental Monitoring/methods , Uncertainty , Carbon Dioxide/analysis
13.
Lancet Planet Health ; 8(8): e545-e553, 2024 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39122323

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Plant-based diets (PBDs) and planetary-health diets (PHDs) are recommended for their potential health and environmental benefits, but population-based evidence in diverse cultures is scarce. METHODS: We included 9364 adults aged 45 years and older (52·3% female, 47·7% male) from the open cohort of the China Health and Nutrition Survey. Dietary intake was assessed using 3-day 24 h dietary recalls combined with weighing methods from 1997 to 2011, and mortality was documented from 1997 to 2015. We calculated the overall PBD index (PDI), healthful PBD index (hPDI), and unhealthful PBD index (uPDI; ranges 18-90), and the PHD score (range 0-140). We also estimated the related greenhouse gas emissions, land appropriation, and total water footprint and examined their associations with mortality. FINDINGS: PBD indices were inversely related to greenhouse gas emissions, land appropriation, and total water footprint, whereas higher PHD score was related to higher environmental burdens (p<0·0001). During follow-up (mean 9·2 years), 792 (8·5%) death cases were documented. PDI (HR 1·08 [95% CI 0·88-1·32]) and hPDI (0·98 [0·80-1·21]) were not significantly associated with mortality, whereas higher uPDI was related to a higher mortality risk (1·55 [1·26-1·91]). In contrast, higher PHD score was associated with lower mortality risk (0·79 [0·63-0·99]). INTERPRETATION: The PBDs showed environmental benefits, but are not necessarily associated with lower mortality risk. The PHD, developed mainly in western populations, was related to lower mortality risk but higher environmental burdens in the Chinese population. FUNDING: Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Zhejiang University Global Partnership Fund, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.


Subject(s)
Mortality , Humans , China/epidemiology , Male , Female , Middle Aged , Aged , Prospective Studies , Diet, Vegetarian , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Greenhouse Gases/adverse effects , Diet, Healthy/statistics & numerical data
14.
Lancet Planet Health ; 8(8): e603-e609, 2024 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39122328

ABSTRACT

Metrics for health-care sustainability are crucial for tracking progress and understanding the advantages of different operations or systems as the health-care sector addresses the climate crisis and other environmental challenges. Measurement of the key metrics of absolute energy use and greenhouse gas emissions now has substantial momentum, but our overall measurement framework generally has serious deficiencies. Because existing metrics are often borrowed from other sectors, many are unconnected to the specifics of health-care provision or existing health system performance indicators, the potential negative effects of health care on public health are largely absent, a consistent and standardised set of health-care sustainability measurement concepts does not yet exist, and current dynamics in health systems such as privatisation are largely ignored. The next generation of health-care sustainability metrics must address these deficiencies by expanding the scope of observation and the entry points for interventions. Specifically, metrics should be standardised, reliable, meaningful, integrated with data management systems, fair, and aligned with the core mission of health care. Incentives with the potential to contradict sustainability goals must be addressed in future planning and implementation if the next generation of metrics is to be effective and incentivise positive systemic change.


Subject(s)
Delivery of Health Care , Humans , Climate Change , Greenhouse Gases
15.
Environ Geochem Health ; 46(10): 406, 2024 Aug 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39212763

ABSTRACT

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and disturbances caused by human activity. To better understand the interactions between soil nitrogen and sulfur cycles and human activities on the plateau, the distribution characteristics of soil nitrogen and sulfur density and their influencing factors for three soil layers in Machin County at depths of 0-20 cm, 0-100 cm, and 0-180 cm are discussed in this paper. The results indicated that at depths of 0-180 cm, soil nitrogen density in Machin County varied between 1.36 and 16.85 kg/m2, while sulfur density ranged from 0.37 to 4.61 kg/m2. The effects of three factors-geological background, land use status, and soil type-on soil nitrogen and sulfur density were all highly significant (p < 0.01). Specifically, natural factors such as soil type and geological background, along with anthropogenic factors including land use practices and grazing intensity, were identified as decisive in causing spatial variations in soil nitrogen and sulfur density. Machin County on the Tibetan Plateau exhibits natural nitrogen and sulfur sinks; However, it is crucial to monitor the emissions of N2O and SO2 into the atmosphere from areas with high external nitrogen and sulfur inputs and low fertility retention capacities, such as bare land. On this basis, changes in the spatial and temporal scales of the nitrogen and sulfur cycles in soils and their source-sink relationships remain the focus of future research.


Subject(s)
Greenhouse Gases , Nitrogen , Soil , Sulfur , Soil/chemistry , Nitrogen/analysis , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Sulfur/analysis , Tibet , Environmental Monitoring , Climate Change
16.
PLoS One ; 19(8): e0309164, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39213425

ABSTRACT

Predicting future climate requires the integration of knowledge and expertise from a wide range of disciplines. Predictions must account for climate-change mitigation policies which may depend on climate predictions. This interdependency, or "circularity", means that climate predictions must be conditioned on emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Long-range forecasts also suffer from information asymmetry because users cannot use track records to judge the skill of providers. The problems of aggregation, circularity, and information asymmetry can be addressed using prediction markets with joint-outcome spaces, allowing simultaneous forecasts of GHG concentrations and temperature. The viability of prediction markets with highly granular, joint-outcome spaces was tested with markets for monthly UK rainfall and temperature. The experiments demonstrate these markets can aggregate the judgments of experts with relevant expertise, and suggest similarly structured markets, with longer horizons, could provide a mechanism to produce credible forecasts of climate-related risks for policy making, planning, and risk disclosure.


Subject(s)
Climate Change , Forecasting , Forecasting/methods , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Humans , Temperature , United Kingdom
17.
Environ Sci Technol ; 58(35): 15522-15538, 2024 Sep 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39171721

ABSTRACT

Although Africa contributes less than 5% to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, its role in global climate action is pivotal. To date, 53 African countries have submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and four have committed to a net-zero target. However, many of Africa's NDCs are vaguely expressed and without specific focus on explicit sectoral decarbonization targets. Furthermore, Africa's huge land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential remains unclear in the context of enabling net-zero (NZ) emissions within the continent. This study achieves two objectives: Under a NZ GHG emission trajectory in Africa, we uncover the implications of a targeted zero-emission electricity sector by 2030, on the energy landscape and other sustainability factors. This study also features the role of land-based biological removal methods─bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation/reforestation (A/R)─in net zero actualization in Africa. Our results reveal a unified but disparate actualisation of the mid-century net zero emission goal across the continent, as all regions except North Africa achieve carbon neutrality. The industrial sector faces significant difficulties in transitioning and contributes substantially to positive emissions on the continent, with its share of total residual emissions reaching 49-64% by 2050. This difficulty persists even with targeted sectoral decarbonization of the electricity sector, although it is significantly reduced by the availability of BECCS as a CDR option. Under the zero-emission electricity pathway, emissions in buildings and transport sectors are reduced due to rapid electrification. A trade-off emerges in the net zero pathway concerning land allocation for negative emissions versus other land use activities. A key result shows that achieving a net zero target in Africa leads to a cumulative loss of $102 billion in fossil fuel infrastructure within the electricity sector by mid-century, which doubles when the zero-emission electricity goal is achieved.


Subject(s)
Electricity , Greenhouse Gases , Africa , Carbon Dioxide , Greenhouse Effect
18.
Environ Sci Technol ; 58(35): 15359-15370, 2024 Sep 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39172505

ABSTRACT

This study explores the potential of synergistically reducing direct (refrigerant) and indirect (electricity) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the global room air conditioning (RAC) sector, based on 80% of global RAC manufactured in China. Three scenarios are evaluated: Business-as-usual (BAU) based on maintaining refrigerant and energy efficiency levels from 2021 China RAC sales shares, Kigali Amendment compliant with 10% energy efficiency improvement by 2025 (KAE), and accelerated refrigerant transition and energy efficiency improvement (ATE). Each scenario considers the costs of refrigerant and efficiency measures for export market groups based on Kigali Amendment classifications. BAU predicts around 1 Gt CO2-eq average annual global RAC emissions (2022-2060). Cumulative emission reductions in China's RAC manufacturing under KAE and ATE are 12.2 and 17.2 Gt CO2-eq A5II and A5I (except China), presenting cost-effective abatement measures, with average costs of -$51.4 and -$68.8/t CO2-eq in KAE and ATE. Cumulative average abatement costs are around $18 and $4/t CO2-eq globally. KAE and ATE scenarios would avoid surface temperature rises of 0.023 (±0.002) °C and 0.027 (±0.003) °C, respectively, versus BAU. Collaboration between China and importing countries is urged to enhance energy efficiency in RACs traded, ensuring sustainable mitigation aligned with the Kigali Amendment.


Subject(s)
Greenhouse Gases , China , Air Conditioning , Air Pollutants
19.
PLoS One ; 19(8): e0307774, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39093909

ABSTRACT

Raising attentions have focused on how to alleviate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from orchard system while simultaneously increase fruit production. Microalgae-based biofertilizer represents a promising resource for improving soil fertility and higher productivity. However, the effects of microalgae application more especially live microalgae on GHG emissions are understudied. In this study, fruit yield and quality, GHG emissions, as well as soil organic carbon and nitrogen fractions were examined in a hawthorn orchard, under the effects of live microalgae-based biofertilizer applied at three doses and two modes. Compared with conventional fertilization, microalgae improved hawthorn yield by 15.7%-29.6% with a maximal increment at medium dose by root application, and significantly increased soluble and reducing sugars contents at high dose. While microalgae did not increase GHG emissions except for nitrous oxide at high dose by root application, instead it significantly increased methane uptake by 1.5-2.3 times in root application. In addition, microalgae showed an increasing trend in soil organic carbon content, and significantly increased the contents of soil dissolved organic carbon and microbial biomass carbon, as well as soil ammonium nitrogen and dissolved organic nitrogen at medium dose with root application. Overall, the results indicated that the live microalgae could be used as a green biofertilizer for improving fruit yield without increasing GHG emissions intensity and the comprehensive greenhouse effect, in particular at medium dose with root application. We presume that if lowering chemical fertilizer rates, application of the live microalgae-based biofertilizer may help to reduce nitrous oxide emissions without compromising fruit yield and quality.


Subject(s)
Crataegus , Fertilizers , Fruit , Greenhouse Gases , Microalgae , Nitrogen , Soil , Fertilizers/analysis , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Fruit/growth & development , Fruit/metabolism , Microalgae/growth & development , Microalgae/metabolism , Soil/chemistry , Nitrogen/analysis , Nitrogen/metabolism , Crataegus/growth & development , Carbon/analysis , Carbon/metabolism , Biomass , Methane/analysis , Methane/metabolism , Nitrous Oxide/analysis , Nitrous Oxide/metabolism
20.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(34): e2317725121, 2024 Aug 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39133857

ABSTRACT

Using global data for around 180 countries and territories and 170 food/feed types primarily derived from FAOSTAT, we have systematically analyzed the changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity (GHGi) (kg CO2eq per kg protein production) over the past six decades. We found that, with large spatial heterogeneity, emission intensity decreased by nearly two-thirds from 1961 to 2019, predominantly in the earlier years due to agronomic improvement in productivity. However, in the most recent decade, emission intensity has become stagnant, and in a few countries even showed an increase, due to the rapid increase in livestock production and land use changes. The trade of final produced protein between countries has potentially reduced the global GHGi, especially for countries that are net importers with high GHGi, such as many in Africa and South Asia. Overall, a continuous decline of emission intensity in the future relies on countries with higher emission intensity to increase agricultural productivity and minimize land use changes. Countries with lower emission intensity should reduce livestock production and increase the free trade of agricultural products and improve the trade optimality.


Subject(s)
Agriculture , Greenhouse Gases , Agriculture/methods , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Carbon/metabolism , Livestock , Animals , Crops, Agricultural
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