Какова эффективность программ систематического популяционного скрининга для снижения бремени сердечно- сосудистых заболеваний? Резюме

Сердечно-сосудистые заболевания (ССЗ) по-прежнему являются основной причиной смерти в Европейском регионе ВОЗ. Настоящий обзор программ систематического популяционного скрининга для выявления ССЗ на доклинической стадии и факторов риска ССЗ является вторым изданием доклада, опубликованного в 2021 г. В ходе обзора был проведен новый поиск литературы и более полное исследование конкретных программ скрининга, осуществляемых на уровне отдельных стран. В новый обзор были включены итоговые результаты двух исследований, которые на момент написания предыдущего доклада были на стадии проведения. Также было выявлено 10 новых исследований, но ни одно из них не соответствовало критериям включения в обзор. Результаты обзора указывают на то, что скрининг для выявления факторов риска ССЗ не снижает заболеваемость и смертность от ССЗ и затраты в секторе здравоохранения. Скрининг для выявления ССЗ на доклинической стадии немного снижает смертность и негативные исходы, связанные с аневризмой брюшной аорты, однако эти выводы могли устареть, а снижение может быть связано с уменьшением числа курящих и улучшением лечения. Скрининг на мерцающую аритмию или на сочетание факторов риска и ССЗ на доклинической стадии незначительно влияет на заболеваемость и смертность. Наблюдаются серьезные побочные эффекты, вероятно, связанные с гипердиагностикой и избыточным лечением. Большинство исследований проводилось в западноевропейских странах. Будущие исследования можно было бы направить на изучение возможной пользы от скрининга в странах, где такие исследования еще не проводились. В немногих странах осуществляются национальные программы скрининга для выявления факторов риска ССЗ и ССЗ на доклинической стадии.

Association of waist circumference and BMI with premature death in young and middle-aged population.

Introduction: Premature death is a global health indicator, significantly impacted by obesity, especially in young and middle-aged population. Both body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) assess obesity, with WC specifically indicating central obesity and showing a stronger relationship with mortality. However, despite known associations between BMI and premature death, as well as the well-recognized correlation between WC and adverse health outcomes, the specific relationship between WC and premature death remains unclear. Therefore, focusing on young and middle-aged individuals, this study aimed to reliably estimate independent and combined associations between WC, BMI and premature death, thereby providing causal evidence to support strategies for obesity management. Methods: This study involved 49,217 subjects aged 18-50 years in the United States from 1999 to 2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Independent and combined associations between WC and BMI with premature death across sex and age stratum were examined by Cox regression. Survey weighting and inverse probability weighting (IPW) were further considered to control selection and confounding bias. Robustness assessment has been conducted on both NHANES and China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) data. Results: A linear and positive relationship between WC and all-cause premature death was found in both males and females, with adjusted HRs of 1.019 (95%CI = 1.004-1.034) and 1.065 (95%CI = 1.039-1.091), respectively. Nonlinear relationships were found with respect to BMI and all-cause premature death. For females aged 36-50 with a BMI below 28.6 kg/m2, the risk of premature death decreased as BMI increased, indicated by adjusted HRs of 0.856 (95%CI = 0.790-0.927). Joint analysis showed among people living with obesity, a larger WC increased premature death risk (HR = 1.924, 95%CI = 1.444-2.564). Discussion: WC and BMI exhibited prominent associations with premature death in young and middle-aged population. Maintaining an appropriate WC and BMI bears significant implications for preventing premature death.

A two-stage bayesian model for assessing the geography of racialized economic segregation and premature mortality across US counties.

Racialized economic segregation, a key metric that simultaneously accounts for spatial, social and income polarization in communities, has been linked to adverse health outcomes, including morbidity and mortality. Due to the spatial nature of this metric, the association between health outcomes and racialized economic segregation could also change with space. Most studies assessing the relationship between racialized economic segregation and health outcomes have always treated racialized economic segregation as a fixed effect and ignored the spatial nature of it. This paper proposes a two-stage Bayesian statistical framework that provides a broad, flexible approach to studying the spatially varying association between premature mortality and racialized economic segregation while accounting for neighborhood-level latent health factors across US counties. The two-stage framework reduces the dimensionality of spatially correlated data and highlights the importance of accounting for spatial autocorrelation in racialized economic segregation measures, in health equity focused settings.

The impact of different imputation methods on estimates and model performance: an example using a risk prediction model for premature mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To compare how different imputation methods affect the estimates and performance of a prediction model for premature mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Sex-specific Weibull accelerated failure time survival models were run on four separate datasets using complete case, mode, single and multiple imputation to impute missing values. Six performance measures were compared to access predictive accuracy (Nagelkerke R2, integrated brier score), discrimination (Harrell's c-index, discrimination slope) and calibration (calibration in the large, calibration slope). RESULTS: The highest proportion of missingness for a single variable was 10.86% for the female model and 8.24% for the male model. Comparing the performance measures for complete case, mode, single and multiple imputation: the Nagelkerke R2 values for the female model was 0.1084, 0.1116, 0.1120 and 0.111-0.1120 with the male model exhibited similar variation of 0.1050, 0.1078, 0.1078 and 0.1078-0.1081. Harrell's c-index also demonstrated small variation with values of 0.8666, 0.8719, 0.8719 and 0.8711-0.8719 for the female model and 0.8549, 0.8548, 0.8550 and 0.8550-0.8553 for the male model. CONCLUSION: In the scenarios examined in this study, mode imputation performed well when using a population health survey compared to single and multiple imputation when predictive performance measures is the main model goal. To generate unbiased hazard ratios, multiple imputation methods were superior. This study shows the need to consider the best imputation approach for a predictive model development given the conditions of missing data and the goals of the analysis.

Sex and Racial Disparities in Proportionate Mortality of Premature Myocardial Infarction in the United States: 1999 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of premature myocardial infarction (PMI) in women (<65 years and men <55 years) is increasing. We investigated proportionate mortality trends in PMI stratified by sex, race, and ethnicity. METHODS AND RESULTS: CDC WONDER (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) was queried to identify PMI deaths within the United States between 1999 and 2020, and trends in proportionate mortality of PMI were calculated using the Joinpoint regression analysis. We identified 3 017 826 acute myocardial infarction deaths, with 373 317 PMI deaths corresponding to proportionate mortality of 12.5% (men 12%, women 14%). On trend analysis, proportionate mortality of PMI increased from 10.5% in 1999 to 13.2% in 2020 (average annual percent change of 1.0 [0.8-1.2, P <0.01]) with a significant increase in women from 10% in 1999 to 17% in 2020 (average annual percent change of 2.4 [1.8-3.0, P <0.01]) and no significant change in men, 11% in 1999 to 10% in 2020 (average annual percent change of -0.2 [-0.7 to 0.3, P=0.4]). There was a significant increase in proportionate mortality in both Black and White populations, with no difference among American Indian/Alaska Native, Asian/Pacific Islander, or Hispanic people. American Indian/Alaska Natives had the highest PMI mortality with no significant change over time. CONCLUSIONS: Over the last 2 decades, there has been a significant increase in the proportionate mortality of PMI in women and the Black population, with persistently high PMI in American Indian/Alaska Natives, despite an overall downtrend in acute myocardial infarction-related mortality. Further research to determine the underlying cause of these differences in PMI mortality is required to improve the outcomes after acute myocardial infarction in these populations.

Lost years, mortality burden: the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on premature death due to road traffic accidents in a northern state in Malaysia.

BACKGROUND: This study addresses the persistent global burden of road traffic fatalities, particularly in middle-income countries like Malaysia, by exploring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Road Traffic Accident (RTA) fatalities in Perak state, Malaysia, with a secondary focus on applying Years of Life Lost (YLL) to understand the implications of these premature deaths. METHODOLOGY: The cross-sectional study retrospectively reviewed certified RTA fatalities from 2018 to 2021, individually counting fatalities in accidents and excluding cases with incomplete death profiles. Data were collected from all Forensic Departments in the government hospitals in Perak. RTA fatalities were confirmed by medical officers/physicians following established procedures during routine procedures. A total of 2517 fatal accident and victim profiles were transcribed into data collection form after reviewing death registration records and post-mortem reports. Inferential analyses were used for comparison between pre- and during COVID-19 pandemic. The standard expected YLL was calculated by comparing the age of death to the external standard life expectancy curve taking into consideration of age and gender in Malaysia. RESULTS: This study included 2207 (87.7%) of the RTA fatalities in Perak State. The analysis revealed a decreasing trend in RTA deaths from 2018 to 2021, with a remarkable Annual Percent Change (APC) of -25.1% in 2020 compared to the pre-pandemic year in 2019 and remained stable with lower APC in 2021. Comparison between pre-pandemic (2018-2019) and pandemic years (2020-2021) revealed a difference in the fatality distribution with a median age rise during the pandemic (37.7 (IQR: 22.96, 58.08) vs. 41.0 (IQR: 25.08, 61.00), p = 0.002). Vehicle profiles remained consistent, yet changes were observed in the involvement of various road users, where more motorcycle riders and pedestrian were killed during pandemic (p = 0.049). During pandemic, there was a decline in vehicle collisions, but slight increase of the non-collision accidents and incidents involving pedestrians/animals (p = 0.015). A shift in accident from noon till midnight were also notable during the pandemic (p = 0.028). YLL revealed differences by age and gender, indicating a higher YLL for females aged 30-34 during the pandemic. CONCLUSION: The decline in RTA fatalities during COVID-19 pandemic underscores the influence of pandemic-induced restrictions and reduced traffic. However, demographic shifts, increased accident severity due to risky behaviors and gender-specific impacts on YLL, stress the necessity for improved safety interventions amidst evolving dynamics.

Geographic sources of ozone air pollution and mortality burden in Europe.

Ground-level ozone (O3) is a harmful air pollutant formed in the atmosphere by the interaction between sunlight and precursor gases. Exposure to current O3 levels in Europe is a major source of premature mortality from air pollution. However, mitigation actions have been mainly designed and implemented at the national and regional scales, lacking a comprehensive assessment of the geographic sources of O3 pollution and its associated health impacts. Here we quantify both national and imported contributions to O3 and their related mortality burden across 813 contiguous regions in 35 European countries, representing about 530 million people. Imported O3 contributed to 88.3% of all O3-attributable deaths (intercountry range 83-100%). The greatest share of imported O3 had its origins outside the study domain (that is, hemispheric sources), which was responsible for 56.7% of total O3-attributable mortality (range 42.5-87.2%). It was concluded that achieving the air-quality guidelines set out by the World Health Organization and avoiding the health impacts of O3 require not only the implementation of national or coordinated pan-European actions but also global strategies.

Premature Death, Suicide, and Nonlethal Intentional Self-Harm After Psychiatric Discharge.

Importance: There is a need for representative research on serious adverse outcomes following discharge from psychiatric hospitalization. Objective: To compare rates of premature death, suicide, and nonlethal intentional self-harm after psychiatric discharge with rates in the general population and investigate associations of these outcomes with relevant variables associated with the index psychiatric hospitalization. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study included all residents from Catalonia, Spain (7.6 million population), who had psychiatric hospitalizations between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2018, and were older than 10 years at the index (first) hospitalization. Follow-up was until December 31, 2019. Statistical analysis was performed from December 1, 2022, through April 11, 2024. Exposures: Socioeconomic status, psychiatric diagnoses, duration of index hospitalization, and number of previous psychiatric hospitalizations. Main Outcomes and Measures: Postdischarge premature death (ie, all-cause death before age 70 years) and suicide (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision [ICD-10] code range X60-X84), identified using mortality data, and postdischarge nonlethal intentional self-harm, identified using electronic health record and self-harm case register data. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) compared rates of premature death and suicide between the cohort and the general population. Fully adjusted, multivariable, cause-specific Cox proportional hazards regression models for the 3 outcomes were fitted. Results: A total of 49 108 patients discharged from psychiatric hospitalization were included (25 833 males [52.6%]; mean [SD] age at discharge, 44.2 [18.2] years). During follow-up, 2260 patients (4.6%) died prematurely, 437 (0.9%) died by suicide, and 4752 (9.7%) had an episode of nonlethal intentional self-harm. The overall SMR for premature death was 7.5 (95% CI, 7.2-7.9). For suicide, SMR was 32.9 (95% CI, 29.9-36.0) overall and was especially high among females (47.6 [95% CI, 40.2-54.9]). In fully adjusted sex-stratified hazard models, postdischarge premature death was associated with cognitive disorders (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.89 [95% CI, 2.24-3.74] for females; 2.59 [95% CI, 2.17-3.08] for males) and alcohol-related disorders (AHR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.18-1.70] for females; 1.22 [95% CI, 1.09-1.37] for males). Postdischarge suicide was associated with postdischarge intentional self-harm (AHR, 2.83 [95% CI, 1.97-4.05] for females; 3.29 [95% CI, 2.47-4.40] for males), with depressive disorders (AHR, 2.13 [95% CI, 1.52-2.97]) and adjustment disorders (AHR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.32-2.83]) among males, and with bipolar disorder among females (AHR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.21-3.09]). Postdischarge intentional self-harm was associated with index admissions for intentional self-harm (AHR, 1.95 [95% CI, 1.73-2.21] for females; 2.62 [95% CI, 2.20-3.13] for males) as well as for adjustment disorders (AHR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.33-1.65] for females; 1.99 [95% CI, 1.74-2.27] for males), anxiety disorders (AHR, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.10-1.39] for females; 1.36 [95% CI, 1.18-1.58] for males), depressive disorders (AHR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.40-1.69] for females; 1.80 [95% CI, 1.58-2.04] for males), and personality disorders (AHR, 1.59 [95% CI, 1.46-1.73] for females; 1.43 [95% CI, 1.28-1.60] for males). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of patients discharged from psychiatric hospitalization, risk for premature death and suicide was significantly higher compared with the general population, suggesting individuals discharged from psychiatric inpatient care are a vulnerable population for premature death and suicidal behavior.

Gender differences in the association between adverse childhood experiences and premature mortality: A prospective population study.

BACKGROUND: Birth cohort studies have shown that adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with all-cause mortality. The effect of ACEs on premature mortality among working-age people is less clear and may differ between the genders. OBJECTIVE: In this prospective population study, we investigated the association of ACEs with all-cause mortality in a working-age population. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: In a representative Finnish population study, Health 2000, individuals aged 30 to 64 years were interviewed in 2000, and their deaths were registered until 2020. At baseline, the participants (n = 4981, 2624 females) completed a questionnaire that included 11 questions on ACEs and questions on tobacco smoking, alcohol abuse, self-reported health and sufficiency of income. All-cause mortality was analysed by Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Of the ACEs, financial difficulties, parental unemployment and individual's own chronic illness were associated with mortality. High number (4+) of ACEs was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in females (HR 2.11, p < 0.001), not in males. Poor health behaviour, self-reported health and low income were the major predictors of mortality in both genders. When the effects of these factors were controlled, childhood family conflicts associated with mortality in both genders. CONCLUSIONS: Among working-age people, females seem to be sensitive to the effects of numerous adverse childhood experiences, exhibiting higher premature all-cause mortality. Of the individual ACEs, family conflicts may increase risk of premature mortality in both genders. The effect of ACEs on premature mortality may partly be mediated via poor adult health behaviour and low socioeconomic status. WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN: In birth cohort studies, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have been associated with all-cause mortality. In working-age people, the association of ACEs with premature mortality is less clear and may differ between the genders. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: In working-age people, high number of ACEs associate with all-cause premature mortality in females, not in males. The effect of ACEs on premature mortality may partly be mediated via poor adult health behaviour, self-reported health and low socioeconomic status.

Self-Administration of Aspirin After Chest Pain for the Prevention of Premature Cardiovascular Mortality in the United States: A Population-Based Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Aspirin, an effective, low-cost pharmaceutical, can significantly reduce mortality if used promptly after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). However, many AMI survivors do not receive aspirin within a few hours of symptom onset. Our aim was to quantify the mortality benefit of self-administering aspirin at chest pain onset, considering the increased risk of bleeding and costs associated with widespread use. METHODS AND RESULTS: We developed a population simulation model to determine the impact of self-administering 325 mg aspirin within 4 hours of severe chest pain onset. We created a synthetic cohort of adults ≥ 40 years old experiencing severe chest pain using 2019 US population estimates, AMI incidence, and sensitivity/specificity of chest pain for AMI. The number of annual deaths delayed was estimated using evidence from a large, randomized trial. We also estimated the years of life saved (YOLS), costs, and cost per YOLS. Initiating aspirin within 4 hours of severe chest pain onset delayed 13 016 (95% CI, 11 643-14 574) deaths annually, after accounting for deaths due to bleeding (963; 926-1003). This translated to an estimated 166 309 YOLS (149391-185 505) at the cost of $643 235 (633 944-653 010) per year, leading to a cost-effectiveness ratio of $3.70 (3.32-4.12) per YOLS. CONCLUSIONS: For <$4 per YOLS, self-administration of aspirin within 4 hours of severe chest pain onset has the potential to save 13 000 lives per year in the US population. Benefits of reducing deaths post-AMI outweighed the risk of bleeding deaths from aspirin 10 times over.

Research on the spatial and temporal patterns of ozone concentration and population health effects in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration from 2017 to 2020.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and near-surface ozone (O3) are the main atmospheric pollutants in China. Long-term exposure to high ozone concentrations adversely affects human health. It is of great significance to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism and health effects of ozone pollution. Based on the ozone data of 91 monitoring stations in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration from 2017 to 2020, the research used Kriging method and spatial autocorrelation analysis to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of ozone concentration. Additionally, the study assessed the health effects of ozone on the population using the population exposure risk model and exposure-response relationship model. The results indicated that: (1) The number of premature deaths caused by ozone pollution in the warm season were 37,053 at 95% confidence interval (95% CI: 28,190-45,930) in 2017, 37,685 (95% CI: 28,669-46,713) in 2018, and 37,655 (95% CI: 28,647-46,676) in 2019. (2) The ozone concentration of the Central Plains urban agglomeration showed a decreasing trend throughout the year and during the warm season from 2017 to 2020, there are two peaks monthly, one is June, and the other is September. (3) In the warm season, the high-risk areas of population exposure to ozone in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration were mainly concentrated in urban areas. In general, the population exposure risk of the south is lower than that of the north. The number of premature deaths attributed to ozone concentration during the warm season has decreased, but some southern cities such as Xinyang and Zhumadian have also seen an increase in premature deaths. China has achieved significant results in air pollution control, but in areas with high ozone concentrations and high population density, the health burden caused by air pollution remains heavy, and stricter air pollution control policies need to be implemented.

Premature mortality for patients after completely resected early adenocarcinoma of the esophagus or stomach.

OBJECTIVE: To establish the life expectancy burden of esophago-gastric cancer by analyzing years of life lost (YLL) for a Western patient population after treatment of early esophageal (EAC) or early gastric (GAC) adenocarcinoma. BACKGROUND: For patients with early EAC or GAC, the short-term prognosis after surgical resection is very good. Little data is available regarding long-term prognosis when compared to the general population. METHODS: Two hundred and fourteen patients with pT1 EAC (n = 112) or GAC (n = 102) were included in the study. Patients with EAC underwent transthoracic en-bloc esophagectomy; those with GAC had total or subtotal gastrectomy with D2-lymphadenectomy. Surviving patients had a median follow-up of approximately 14 years. YLL was calculated using average life expectancy data from Germany. RESULTS: Patients with EAC were younger (median age 61 years) than those with GAC (66 years) (p = 0.031). The male:female ratio was 10:1 for EAC and 3:2 for GAC (p < 0.001). Multivariate survival analysis showed the age of the patients ≥60 years and the existence of lymph node metastasis was associated with poor prognosis. The median YLL for all patients who died over follow-up was 8.0 years. For patients under 60 years, it was approximately 20 years, and for older patients, approximately 5 years (p < 0.001) without difference in tumor stage between these age cohorts. YLL did not differ for GAC vs. EAC. CONCLUSION: After surgical resection, the prognostic burden as measured by YLL is relevant for all patients with early esophageal and gastric adenocarcinomas and especially for younger patients. Reasons for YLL need further studies.

Gender disparities in lost productivity resulting from non-communicable diseases in Mexico, 2005-2021.

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) cause long-term impacts on health and can substantially affect people's ability to work. Little is known about how such impacts vary by gender, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where productivity losses may affect economic development. This study assessed the long-term productivity loss caused by major NCDs among adult women and men (20-76 years) in Mexico because of premature death and hospitalisations, between 2005 and 2021. Methods: We conducted an economic valuation based on the Human Capital Approach. We obtained population-based data from the National Employment Survey from 2005 to 2021 to estimate the expected productivity according to age and gender using a two-part model. We utilised expected productivity based on wage rates to calculate the productivity loss, employing Mexican official mortality registries and hospital discharge microdata for the same period. To assess the variability in our estimations, we performed sensitivity analyses under two different scenarios. Results: Premature mortality by cancers, diabetes, chronic cardiovascular diseases (CVD), chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) caused a productivity loss of 102.6 billion international US dollars (Intl. USD) from 2.8 million premature deaths. Seventy-three percent of this productivity loss was observed among men. Cancers caused 38.3% of the productivity loss (mainly among women), diabetes 38.1, CVD 15.1, CRD 3.2, and CKD 5.3%. Regarding hospitalisations, the estimated productivity loss was 729.7 million Intl. USD from 54.2 million days of hospitalisation. Men faced 65.4 and women 34.6% of these costs. Cancers caused 41.3% of the productivity loss mainly by women, followed by diabetes (22.1%), CKD (20.4%), CVD (13.6%) and CRD (2.6%). Conclusions: Major NCDs impose substantial costs from lost productivity in Mexico and these tend to be higher amongst men, while for some diseases the economic burden is higher for women. This should be considered to inform policymakers to design effective gender-sensitive health and social protection interventions to tackle the burden of NCDs.

Association between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter and its chemical constituents and premature death in individuals living with HIV/AIDS.

Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with an increased total mortality. However, the association of PM2.5 with mortality in people living with human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS, PLWHA) and the relationship between its constituents and adverse outcomes remain unknown. In this cohort study, 28,140 PLWHA were recruited from the HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System of the Hubei Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in China between 2001 and 2020. The annual PM2.5 chemical composition data, including sulfate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), ammonium (NH4+), black carbon (BC), and organic matter (OM), was extracted from the Tracking Air Pollution (TAP) dataset in China. A Cox proportional hazard model with time-varying exposure and time-to-event quantile-based generalized (g) computation was used to assess the associations between PM2.5 chemical constituents, and mortality in PLWHA. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard model estimated an excess hazard ratio (eHR) of 0.32% [95% confidence interval (CI): (0.01%, 0.64%)] for AIDS-related death (ARD), associated with 1 µg/m3 rise in PM2.5 exposure. An increase of 1 µg/m3 in NH4+ was associated with 5.13% [95% CI: (2.89%, 7.43%)] and 2.97% [95% CI: (1.52%, 4.44%)] increase in the risk of ARD and all-cause deaths (ACD), respectively. When estimated using survival-based quantile g-computation, the eHR for ARD with a joint change in a decile increase in all five components was 6.10% [95% CI: 3.77%, 8.48%)]. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 chemical composition, particularly NH4+ increased the risk of death in PLWHA. This study provides epidemiological evidence that SO42- and NH4+ increased the risk of ARD and that NH4+ increased the risk of ACD in PLWHA. Multi-constituent analyses further suggested that NH4+ may be a key component in increasing the risk of premature death in patients with HIV/AIDS. Individuals aged ≥65 with HIV/AIDS are more vulnerable to SO42-, and consequent ACD.

Tendencias en la mortalidad por accidentes de tránsito en motocicleta en Colombia, 2008-2021 / Trends in motorcycle road deaths in Colombia, 2008-2021 / Tendências de mortalidade por acidentes de motocicleta na Colômbia, 2008–2021

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Identificar las tendencias de mortalidad por accidentes de tránsito en motocicleta en Colombia entre los años 2008 y 2021. Métodos. Se realizó un estudio observacional y descriptivo de tendencias de la mortalidad por accidentes de tránsito en motocicleta a partir de los registros oficiales de defunciones entre 2008 y 2021. Se efectuó un análisis de regresión Jointpoint Poisson para detectar los puntos de inflexión en las tasas de mortalidad espe- cíficas por edad, sexo y área de residencia. Resultados. Se identificaron 28 200 muertes por accidentes de tránsito en motocicleta en todo el período; fallecieron 24 271 hombres y 3 929 mujeres. El 74,1% de las defunciones ocurrió en el área urbana y el 25,9% en el área rural. En esta área se observó una tendencia creciente en la mortalidad en adultos jóvenes de ambos sexos a lo largo de todo el período. Lo mismo ocurrió en hombres de más de 65 años. En el área urbana, se identificó una tendencia al aumento de la mortalidad en las edades entre 45 a 64 años para ambos sexos durante todo el período. Solo se detectó un punto de inflexión en el año 2015, que mostró una disminución en la tendencia, en mujeres adolescentes. Conclusión. La tendencia en la mortalidad por accidentes de tránsito en motocicleta en Colombia se mantuvo en aumento durante todo el período (2008-2021) tanto en áreas rurales para adultos jóvenes como en áreas urbanas para personas de mediana edad.

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. To identify trends in motorcycle road deaths in Colombia between 2008 and 2021. Methods. An observational and descriptive study of trends in motorcycle road deaths was conducted using official death records from 2008 to 2021. Jointpoint Poisson regression analysis was performed to detect inflection points in mortality rates specific to age, sex, and area of residence. Results. A total of 28 200 motorcycle road deaths were identified during the period; 24 271 men and 3 929 women died. Of the deaths, 74.1% occurred in urban areas and 25.9% in rural areas. In rural areas, there was an increasing trend in fatalities in young adults of both sexes during the period. The same occurred in men over 65 years of age. In urban areas, there was an upward trend in fatalities in the age group from 45-64 for both sexes during the period. Only one inflection point was detected, in 2015, showing a downward trend in adolescent females. Conclusion. The trend in motorcycle road deaths in Colombia continued to rise during the 2008-2021 period, both in rural areas for young adults and in urban areas for middle-aged adults.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Identificar tendências de mortalidade por acidentes de motocicleta na Colômbia entre 2008 e 2021. Métodos. Realizou-se um estudo observacional e descritivo das tendências de mortalidade por acidentes de motocicleta com base em registros oficiais de óbitos entre 2008 e 2021. Conduziu-se uma análise baseada na regressão de Poisson (Joinpoint) para detectar pontos de inflexão em taxas de mortalidade específicas por idade, sexo e área de residência. Resultados. Foram identificadas 28 200 mortes por acidentes de motocicleta durante todo o período, corres- pondendo a 24 271 homens e 3 929 mulheres. As mortes ocorreram tanto na área urbana (74,1%) quanto rural (25,9%). Na área rural, observou-se uma tendência crescente na mortalidade de adultos jovens de ambos os sexos ao longo de todo o período. O mesmo ocorreu em relação a homens com mais de 65 anos. Na área urbana, identificou-se uma tendência de aumento da mortalidade na faixa etária de 45 a 64 anos, em ambos os sexos, durante todo o período. Apenas um ponto de inflexão foi detectado em 2015, mostrando uma redução na tendência em adolescentes do sexo feminino. Conclusão. A tendência de mortalidade por acidentes de motocicleta na Colômbia continuou a aumentar durante todo o período (2008 a 2021), tanto na área rural, para jovens adultos, quanto na área urbana, para pessoas de meia-idade.

Disparities in Mortality by Sexual Orientation in a Large, Prospective Cohort of Female Nurses.

Importance: Extensive evidence documents health disparities for lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) women, including worse physical, mental, and behavioral health than heterosexual women. These factors have been linked to premature mortality, yet few studies have investigated premature mortality disparities among LGB women and whether they differ by lesbian or bisexual identity. Objective: To examine differences in mortality by sexual orientation. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study examined differences in time to mortality across sexual orientation, adjusting for birth cohort. Participants were female nurses born between 1945 and 1964, initially recruited in the US in 1989 for the Nurses' Health Study II, and followed up through April 2022. Exposures: Sexual orientation (lesbian, bisexual, or heterosexual) assessed in 1995. Main Outcome and Measure: Time to all-cause mortality from assessment of exposure analyzed using accelerated failure time models. Results: Among 116 149 eligible participants, 90 833 (78%) had valid sexual orientation data. Of these 90 833 participants, 89 821 (98.9%) identified as heterosexual, 694 (0.8%) identified as lesbian, and 318 (0.4%) identified as bisexual. Of the 4227 deaths reported, the majority were among heterosexual participants (n = 4146; cumulative mortality of 4.6%), followed by lesbian participants (n = 49; cumulative mortality of 7.0%) and bisexual participants (n = 32; cumulative mortality of 10.1%). Compared with heterosexual participants, LGB participants had earlier mortality (adjusted acceleration factor, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.64-0.84]). These differences were greatest among bisexual participants (adjusted acceleration factor, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.51-0.78]) followed by lesbian participants (adjusted acceleration factor, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.68-0.95]). Conclusions and Relevance: In an otherwise largely homogeneous sample of female nurses, participants identifying as lesbian or bisexual had markedly earlier mortality during the study period compared with heterosexual women. These differences in mortality timing highlight the urgency of addressing modifiable risks and upstream social forces that propagate and perpetuate disparities.

The association between disability and all-cause mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: There are 1·3 billion people with disabilities globally. On average, they have poorer health than their non-disabled peers, but the extent of increased risk of premature mortality is unknown. We aimed to systematically review the association between disability and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Global Health, PsycINFO, and EMBASE from Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 14, 2022. Longitudinal epidemiological studies in any language with a comparator group that measured the association between disability and all-cause mortality in people of any age were eligible for inclusion. Two reviewers independently assessed study eligibility, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. We used a random-effects meta-analysis to calculate the pooled hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality by disability status. We then conducted meta-analyses separately for different impairment and age groups. FINDINGS: We identified 6146 unique articles, of which 70 studies (81 cohorts) were included in the systematic review, from 22 countries. There was variability in the methods used to assess and report disability and mortality. The meta-analysis included 54 studies, representing 62 cohorts (comprising 270 571 people with disabilities). Pooled HRs for all-cause mortality were 2·02 (95% CI 1·77-2·30) for people with disabilities versus those without disabilities, with high heterogeneity between studies (τ2=0·23, I2=98%). This association varied by impairment type: from 1·36 (1·17-1·57) for visual impairment to 3·95 (1·60-9·74) for multiple impairments. The association was highest for children younger than 18 years (4·46, [3·01-6·59]) and lower in people aged 15-49 years (2·45 [1·21-4·97]) and people older than 60 years (1·97 [1·65-2·36]). INTERPRETATION: People with disabilities had a two-fold higher mortality rate than people without disabilities in LMICs. Interventions are needed to improve the health of people with disabilities and reduce their higher mortality rate. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research; and UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

Association of gestational diabetes with long-term risk of premature mortality, and cardiovascular outcomes and risk factors: A retrospective cohort analysis in the UK Biobank.

AIM: To investigate the association of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) with premature mortality and cardiovascular (CVD) outcomes and risk factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Parous women recruited to the UK Biobank cohort during 2006-2010 were followed up from their first delivery until 31 October 2021. The data were linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality registries. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models investigated associations of GDM with all-cause mortality, CVD, diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemia. RESULTS: The maximum total analysis time at risk and under observation was 9 694 090 person-years. Among 220 726 women, 1225 self-reported or had a recorded diagnosis of GDM. After adjusting for confounders and behavioural factors, GDM was associated with increased risk for premature mortality [hazard ratio (HR): 1.44, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12-1.86], particularly CVD-related death (HR: 2.38, 95% CI: 1.63-3.48), as well as incident total CVD (HR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.30-1.74), non-fatal CVD (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.20-1.65), diabetes (HR: 14.37, 95% CI: 13.51-15.27), hypertension (HR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.38-1.60), and dyslipidaemia (HR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.22-1.39). The total CVD risk was greater in women with GDM who did not later develop diabetes than in those with GDM and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Women with GDM are at increased risk of premature death and have increased CV risk, emphasizing the importance of interventions to prevent GDM. If GDM develops, the diagnosis represents an opportunity for future surveillance and intervention to reduce CVD risk factors, prevent CVD and improve long-term health.