Morbidity and mortality of emergency surgery in octogenarian patient.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the health outcomes (postoperative morbidity and mortality) and the functional status at discharge of elderly patients older than 80 years who underwent emergency surgery. METHOD: Patients > 80 years of age who underwent emergency surgery during one year at the Marqués de Valdecilla University Hospital, Santander, Spain. Preoperative data (age, sex, type of surgery, comorbidity) and postoperative data (complications) were evaluated, as well as in-hospital mortality, at 30 days and 6 months after surgery. RESULTS: Five-hundred-sixty-eight patients underwent emergency surgery between 2018 and 2019. After the review, 407 patients were included in the study. Average age: 86.9 years. Women 61.7%. Mean hospital stay: 10.4 days. Traumatic interventions 41.3%, vascular surgery 19.7%, general-digestive surgery 25.3%. Medium ASA risk: 2.88. Functional status at discharge: 3.15. Postoperative complications: Clavien-Dindo I 40.8%, II 40.3%, IIIA 3.4%, IIIB 2.5%, IVA 3.9%, IVB 2.0% and V 7.1%. Hospital mortality 7.1%, 30-day mortality 10.3%, mortality at 6 months 24.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Patients > 80 years of age undergoing urgent surgery have high preoperative comorbidity, postoperative complications, and high mortality at 30 days and 6 months after surgery. This mortality is more significant in those ASA IV, nonagenarians and those undergoing high-risk surgery.

OBJETIVO: Evaluar los resultados en salud (morbilidad y mortalidad posoperatorias) y el estado funcional al alta de los pacientes mayores de 80 años sometidos a cirugía de urgencia. MÉTODO: Pacientes de edad > 80 años sometidos a cirugía de urgencia durante 1 año en el Hospital Universitario Marqués de Valdecilla, Santander, España. Se evaluaron datos preoperatorios (edad, sexo, tipo de cirugía, comorbilidad) y posoperatorios (complicaciones), así como mortalidad hospitalaria, a los 30 días y a los 6 meses de la cirugía. RESULTADOS: En 2018-2019 fueron operados de urgencia 568 pacientes, de los cuales 407 fueron incluidos en el estudio. Edad media: 86.9 años. El 61.7% fueron mujeres. Estancia media hospitalaria: 10.4 días. El 41.3% fueron intervenciones traumatológicas, el 19.7% cirugía vascular, el 25.3% cirugía general-digestiva. Riesgo ASA medio: 2.88. Estado funcional al alta: 3.15. Complicaciones posoperatorias: Clavien-Dindo I 40.8%, II 40.3%, IIIA 3.4%, IIIB 2.5%, IVA 3.9%, IVB 2.0% y V 7.1%. Mortalidad: hospitalaria 7.1%, a los 30 días 10.3% y a los 6 meses 24.6%. CONCLUSIONES: Los pacientes > 80 años sometidos a cirugía urgente presentan elevada comorbilidad preoperatoria, complicaciones posoperatorias y elevada mortalidad a 30 días y 6 meses de la cirugía. Esta mortalidad es más significativa en los ASA IV, nonagenarios y sometidos a cirugía de alto riesgo.

Race, Ethnicity, and Pediatric Postsurgical Mortality: Current Trends and Future Projections.

BACKGROUND: No study has contextualized the aggregate human costs attributable to disparities in pediatric postsurgical mortalities in the United States, a critical step needed to convey the scale of racial inequalities to clinicians, policymakers, and the public. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study of 673 677 children from US hospitals undergoing intermediate to high-risk surgery between 2000 and 2019. We estimated the excess deaths that could be avoided if Black and Hispanic children had comparable mortality rates to white children. We estimated the mortality reduction required to eliminate disparities within the next decade. We finally evaluated the impact of policy changes targeting a modest annual 2.5% reduction in disparity-attributable mortality. RESULTS: During 2000 to 2019, risk-adjusted postoperative mortality trended consistently higher for both Black (adjusted RR [aRR]: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.36-1.49) and Hispanic children (aRR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.17-1.27) than for white children. These disparity gaps were driven by higher mortality in Black and Hispanic children receiving surgery in nonteaching hospitals (Black versus white aRR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.38-1.93; Hispanic versus white aRR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.33-1.70). There were 4700 excess deaths among Black children and 5500 among Hispanic children, representing. 10 200 (average: 536 per year) excess deaths among minoritized children. Policy changes achieving an annual 2.5% reduction in postoperative mortality would prevent approximately 1100 deaths among Black children in the next decade. CONCLUSIONS: By exploring the solution, and not just the problem, our study provides a framework to reduce disparities in pediatric postoperative mortality over the next decade.

Association of the TyG index with prognosis in surgical intensive care patients: data from the MIMIC-IV.

BACKGROUND: The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, a tool for assessing insulin resistance, is increasingly recognized for its ability to predict cardiovascular and metabolic risks. However, its relationship with trauma and surgical patient prognosis is understudied. This study investigated the correlation between the TyG index and mortality risk in surgical/trauma ICU patients to identify high-risk individuals and improve prognostic strategies. METHODS: This study identified patients requiring trauma/surgical ICU admission from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database, and divided them into tertiles based on the TyG index. The outcomes included 28-day mortality and 180-day mortality for short-term and long-term prognosis. The associations between the TyG index and clinical outcomes in patients were elucidated using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and RCS models. RESULTS: A total of 2103 patients were enrolled. The 28-day mortality and 180-day mortality rates reached 18% and 24%, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that an elevated TyG index was significantly related to 28-day and 180-day mortality after covariates adjusting. An elevated TyG index was significantly associated with 28-day mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.37) and 180-day mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.39). RCS models revealed that a progressively increasing risk of mortality was related to an elevated TyG index. According to our subgroup analysis, an elevated TyG index is associated with increased risk of 28-day and 180-day mortality in critically ill patients younger than 60 years old, as well as those with concomitant stroke or cardiovascular diseases. Additionally, in nondiabetic patients, an elevated TyG index is associated with 180-day mortality. CONCLUSION: An increasing risk of mortality was related to an elevated TyG index. In critically ill patients younger than 60 years old, as well as those with concomitant stroke or cardiovascular diseases, an elevated TyG index is associated with adverse short-term and long-term outcomes. Furthermore, in non-diabetic patients, an elevated TyG index is associated with adverse long-term prognosis.

Perioperative Primary Care Utilization and Postoperative Readmission, Emergency Department Use, and Mortality in Older Surgical Patients.

BACKGROUND: Postdischarge primary care follow-up is associated with lower readmission rates after medical hospitalizations. However, the effect of primary care utilization on readmission has not been studied in surgical patients. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older undergoing major inpatient diagnostic or therapeutic procedures (n = 3,552,906) from 2017 through 2018, examining the association between postdischarge primary care visits within 14 days of discharge (primary exposure), and Annual Wellness Visits in the year prior (secondary exposure), with 30-day unplanned readmission (primary outcome), emergency department visits, and mortality (secondary outcomes). RESULTS: Overall, 9.5% (n = 336,837) had postdischarge visits within 14 days, 2.9% (n = 104,571) had Annual Wellness Visits in the year preceding the procedure, 9.5% (n = 336,401) were readmitted, 9% (n = 319,054) had emergency department visits, and 0.6% (n = 22,103) of the cohort died within 30 days. Our fully adjusted propensity-matched proportional hazards Cox regression analysis showed that postdischarge visits were associated with a 5% lower risk of readmission (hazard ratio [HR], 0.95, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-0.97), 43% higher risk of emergency department use (HR, 1.43, 95% CI, 1.40-1.46) and no difference in mortality risk (HR, 0.98, 95% CI, 0.90-1.06), compared with not having a visit within 14 days of discharge. In a separate set of regression models, Annual Wellness Visits were associated with a 9% lower risk of readmission (HR, 0.91, 95% CI, 0.88-0.95), 45% higher risk of emergency department utilization (HR, 1.45, 95% CI, 1.40-1.49) and an 18% lower mortality risk (HR, 0.82, 95% CI, 0.75-0.89) compared with no Annual Wellness Visit in the year before the procedure. CONCLUSIONS: Both postdischarge visits and the Medicare Annual Wellness Visit appear to be extremely underutilized among the older surgical population. In those patients who do utilize primary care, compared with propensity-matched patients who do not, our study suggests primary care use is associated with modestly lower readmission rates. Prospective studies are needed to determine whether targeted primary care involvement can reduce readmission.

Mortality and cardiac arrest rates of emergency surgery in developed and developing countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The magnitude of the risk of death and cardiac arrest associated with emergency surgery and anesthesia is not well understood. Our aim was to assess whether the risk of perioperative and anesthesia-related death and cardiac arrest has decreased over the years, and whether the rates of decrease are consistent between developed and developing countries. METHODS: A systematic review was performed using electronic databases to identify studies in which patients underwent emergency surgery with rates of perioperative mortality, 30-day postoperative mortality, or perioperative cardiac arrest. Meta-regression and proportional meta-analysis with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were performed to evaluate global data on the above three indicators over time and according to country Human Development Index (HDI), and to compare these results according to country HDI status (low vs. high HDI) and time period (pre-2000s vs. post-2000s). RESULTS: 35 studies met the inclusion criteria, representing more than 3.09 million anesthetic administrations to patients undergoing anesthesia for emergency surgery. Meta-regression showed a significant association between the risk of perioperative mortality and time (slope: -0.0421, 95%CI: from - 0.0685 to -0.0157; P = 0.0018). Perioperative mortality decreased over time from 227 per 10,000 (95% CI 134-380) before the 2000s to 46 (16-132) in the 2000-2020 s (p < 0-0001), but not with increasing HDI. 30-day postoperative mortality did not change significantly (346 [95% CI: 303-395] before the 2000s to 292 [95% CI: 201-423] in the 2000s-2020 period, P = 0.36) and did not decrease with increasing HDI status. Perioperative cardiac arrest rates decreased over time, from 113 per 10,000 (95% CI: 31-409) before the 2000s to 31 (14-70) in the 2000-2020 s, and also with increasing HDI (68 [95% CI: 29-160] in the low-HDI group to 21 [95% CI: 6-76] in the high-HDI group, P = 0.012). CONCLUSIONS: Despite increasing baseline patient risk, perioperative mortality has decreased significantly over the past decades, but 30-day postoperative mortality has not. A global priority should be to increase long-term survival in both developed and developing countries and to reduce overall perioperative cardiac arrest through evidence-based best practice in developing countries.

Development and validation of the Ex-Care BR model: a multicentre initiative for identifying Brazilian surgical patients at risk of 30-day in-hospital mortality.

BACKGROUND: Surgical risk stratification is crucial for enhancing perioperative assistance and allocating resources efficiently. However, existing models may not capture the complexity of surgical care in Brazil. Using data from various healthcare settings nationwide, we developed a new risk model for 30-day in-hospital mortality (the Ex-Care BR model). METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 10 hospitals from different geographic regions in Brazil. Data were analysed using multilevel logistic regression models. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), Brier score, and calibration plots. Derivation and validation cohorts were randomly assigned. RESULTS: A total of 107,372 patients were included, and 30-day in-hospital mortality was 2.1% (n=2261). The final risk model comprised four predictors related to the patient and surgery (age, ASA physical status classification, surgical urgency, and surgical size), and the random effect related to hospitals. The model showed excellent discrimination (AUROC=0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-0.94), calibration, and overall performance (Brier score=0.017) in the derivation cohort (n=75,094). Similar results were observed in the validation cohort (n=32,278) (AUROC=0.93, 95% CI, 0.92-0.93). CONCLUSIONS: The Ex-Care BR is the first model to consider regional and organisational peculiarities of the Brazilian surgical scene, in addition to patient and surgical factors. It is particularly useful for identifying high-risk surgical patients in situations demanding efficient allocation of limited resources. However, a thorough exploration of mortality variations among hospitals is essential for a comprehensive understanding of risk. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT05796024.

Does delayed operation increase morbidity and mortality? An analysis of emergency general surgery procedures.

BACKGROUND: Early operation is assumed to improve outcomes after emergency general surgery (EGS) procedures; however, few data exist to inform this opinion. We aimed to (1) characterize time-to-operation patterns among EGS procedures and (2) test the association between timing and patient outcomes. We hypothesize that patients receiving later operations are at greater risk for mortality and morbidity. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data for adults aged 18 to 89 years who underwent nonelective intra-abdominal operations (appendectomy, cholecystectomy, small bowel resection, lysis of adhesions, and colectomy) from 2015 to 2020. The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative mortality. Secondary outcomes were serious morbidity and all morbidity. Admission-to-operation timing was calculated and classified as early (≤48 hours) or late (>48 hours). A multivariable logistic regression model adjusted risk estimates for age, comorbidities, frailty (Modified Frailty Index, 5-item score), and other confounders. RESULTS: Of 269,959 patients (mean age, 47.0 years; 48.0% male, 61.6% White), 88.7% underwent early operation, ranging from 70.36% (lysis of adhesions) to 98.67% (appendectomy). Unadjusted 30-day mortality was higher for late versus early operation (6.73% vs. 1.96%; p < 0.0001). After risk adjustment, late operation significantly increased risk for 30-day mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.545; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.451-1.644), serious morbidity (OR, 1.464; 95% CI, 1.416-1.514), and all morbidity (OR, 1.468; 95% CI, 1.417-1.520). This mortality risk persisted for all EGS procedures; risk of serious and any morbidity persisted for all procedures except cholecystectomy. CONCLUSION: Late operation significantly increased risk for 30-day mortality, serious morbidity, and all morbidity across a variety of EGS procedures. We believe that these findings will inform decisions regarding timing of EGS operations and allocation of surgical resources. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic/Care Management; Level III.

Impact of peri-operative frailty and operative stress on post-discharge mortality, readmission and days at home in Medicare beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Understanding how patients' frailty and the physiological stress of surgical procedures affect postoperative outcomes may inform risk stratification of older patients undergoing surgery. The objective of the study was to examine the association of peri-operative frailty with mortality, 30-day readmission and days at home after non-cardiac surgical procedures of different physiological stress. METHODS: This retrospective study used Medicare claims data from a 7.125% random sample of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries from 2015 to 2019 who were aged ≥ 65 years and underwent non-cardiac surgical procedure listed in the Operative Stress Score categories. The exposure of the study was claims-based frailty index (robust, < 0.15; pre-frail, 0.15 to < 0.25; mildly frail, 0.25 to < 0.35; and moderate-to-severely frail, ≥ 0.35) with Operative Stress Score categories being 1, very low stress to 5, very high stress. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 30 days and 365 days after the surgical procedure. RESULTS: In total, 1,019,938 patients (mean (SD) age of 76.1 (7.3) years; 52.3% female; 16.8% frail) were included. The cumulative incidence of mortality generally increased with Operative Stress Score category, ranging from 5.0% (Operative Stress Score 2) to 24.9% (Operative Stress Score 4) at 365 days. Within each category, increasing frailty was associated with mortality at 30 days (hazard ratio comparing moderate-to-severe frailty vs. robust ranged from 1.59-3.91) and at 365 days (hazard ratio 1.30-4.04). The variation in postoperative outcomes by patients' frailty level was much greater than the variation by the operative stress category. CONCLUSIONS: These results emphasise routine frailty screening before major and minor non-cardiac procedures and the need for greater clinician awareness of postoperative outcomes beyond 30 days in shared decision-making with older adults with frailty.

Mortality following noncardiac surgery assessed by the Saint Louis University Score (SLUScore) for hypotension: a retrospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Saint Louis University Score (SLUScore) was developed to quantify intraoperative blood pressure trajectories and their associated risk for adverse outcomes. This study examines the prevalence and severity of intraoperative hypotension described by the SLUScore and its relationship with 30-day mortality in surgical subtypes. METHODS: This retrospective analysis of perioperative data included surgical cases performed between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2020. The SLUScore is calculated from cumulative time-periods for which the mean arterial pressure is below a range of hypotensive thresholds. After calculating the SLUScore for each surgical procedure, we quantified the prevalence and severity of intraoperative hypotension for each surgical procedure and the association between intraoperative hypotension and 30-day mortality. We used binary logistic regression to quantify the potential contribution of intraoperative hypotension to mortality. RESULTS: We analysed 490 982 cases (57.7% female; mean age 57 yr); 33.2% of cases had a SLUScore>0, a median SLUScore of 13 (inter-quartile range [IQR] 7-21), with 1.19% average mortality. The SLUScore was associated with mortality in 12/14 surgical groups. The increases in the odds ratio for death within 30 days of surgery per SLUScore increment were: all surgery types 3.5% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 3.2-3.9); abdominal/transplant surgery 6% (95% CI 1.5-10.7); thoracic surgery1.5% (95% CI 1-3.3); vascular surgery 3.01% (95% CI 1.9-4.05); spine/neurosurgery 1.1% (95% CI 0.1-2.1); orthopaedic surgery 1.4% (95% CI 0.7-2.2); gynaecological surgery 6.3% (95% CI 2.5-10.1); genitourinary surgery 4.84% (95% CI 3.5-6.15); gastrointestinal surgery 5.2% (95% CI 3.9-6.4); gastroendoscopy 5.5% (95% CI 4.4-6.7); general surgery 6.3% (95% CI 5.5-7.1); ear, nose, and throat surgery 1.6% (95% CI 0-3.27); and cardiac electrophysiology (including pacemaker procedures) 6.6% (95% CI 1.1-12.4). CONCLUSIONS: The SLUScore was independently, but variably, associated with 30-day mortality after noncardiac surgery.

Addition of High-Sensitivity Troponin to Perioperative Risk Assessment Improves the Predictive Ability of Death in Non-Cardiac Surgery Patients. / Adição da Troponina Ultrassensível à Avaliação de Risco Perioperatório Melhora a Capacidade Preditiva de Morte em Pacientes Submetidos à Cirurgia Não Cardíaca.

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification is an important step in perioperative evaluation. However, the main risk scores do not incorporate biomarkers in their set of variables. OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the incremental power of troponin to the usual risk stratification. METHODS: A total of 2,230 patients admitted to the intensive care unit after non-cardiac surgery were classified according to three types of risk: cardiovascular risk (CVR), Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI); and inherent risk of surgery (IRS). The main outcome was all-cause mortality. Cox regression was used as well as c-statistics before and after addition of high-sensitivity troponin (at least one measurement up to three days after surgery). Finally, net reclassification index and integrated discrimination improvement were used to assess the incremental power of troponin for risk stratification. Significance level was set at 0.05. RESULTS: Mean age of patients was 63.8 years and 55.6% were women. The prevalence of myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery (MINS) was 9.4%. High CVR-patients had a higher occurrence of MINS (40.1 x 24.8%, p<0.001), as well as high IRS-patients (21.3 x 13.9%, p=0.004) and those with a RCRI≥3 (3.0 x 0.7%, p=0.009). Patients without MINS, regardless of the assessed risk, had similar mortality rate. The addition of troponin to the risk assessment improved the predictive ability of death at 30 days and at 1 year in all risk assessments. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of MINS is higher in the high-risk population. However, its prevalence in lower-risk population is not negligible and causes a higher risk of death. The addition of high-sensitivity troponin increased the predictive ability of risk assessment in all groups.

FUNDAMENTO: A estratificação ode risco é uma importante etapa na avaliação perioperatória. No entanto, os principais escores de risco não incorporam biomarcadores em seus conjuntos de variáveis. OBJETIVO: Avaliar o poder incremental da troponina à estratificação de risco tradicional. MÉTODOS: Um total de 2230 pacientes admitidos na unidade de terapia intensiva após cirurgia não cardíaca foram classificados de acordo com três tipos de risco: Risco Cardiovascular (RCV), Índice de Risco Cardíaco Revisado (IRCR), e Risco Inerente da Cirurgia (RIC). O principal desfecho foi mortalidade por todas as causas. A regressão de Cox foi usada, assim como a estatística C antes e após a adição de troponina ultrassensível (pelo menos uma medida até três dias após a cirurgia). Finalmente, o índice de reclassificação líquida e a melhoria de discriminação integrada foram usadas para avaliar o poder incremental da troponina para a estratificação de risco. O nível de significância usado foi de 0,05. RESULTADOS: A idade média dos pacientes foi 63,8 anos e 55,6% eram do sexo feminino. A prevalência de lesão miocárdica após cirurgia não cardíaca (MINS) foi 9,4%. Pacientes com um RCV elevado apresentaram uma maior ocorrência de MINS (40,1% x 24,8%, p<0,001), bem como pacientes com alto RIC (21,3 x 13,9%, p=0,004) e aqueles com IRCR≥3 (3,0 x 0,7%, p=0,009). Pacientes sem MINS, independentemente do risco avaliado, apresentaram taxa de mortalidade similar. A adição de troponina à avaliação de risco melhorou a capacidade preditiva de mortalidade em 30 dias e de mortalidade em um ano em todas as avaliações de risco. CONCLUSÃO: A prevalência de MINS é mais alta na população de alto risco. No entanto, sua prevalência na população de risco mais baixo não é desprezível e causa um maior risco de morte. A adição da troponina ultrassensível melhorou a capacidade preditiva da avaliação de risco em todos os grupos.

Increasing perioperative age and comorbidity: a 16-year cohort study at two University hospital sites in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Increasing life expectancy affects all aspects of healthcare. During surgery, elderly patients are prone to complications and have a higher risk of death. The authors aimed to investigate if adult patients undergoing surgery at a large Swedish university hospital were getting older and sicker over time and if this potential shift in age and illness severity was associated with higher patient mortality rates. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a 16-year cohort study on all surgical procedures performed in adult patients 2006-2021 at two sites of Karolinska University Hospital. Study data was obtained from the surgical system, electronic medical records, and cause-of-death register. Information on age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, date, type, acuity and duration of surgery was collected. ICD codes were used to calculate the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). Short-term, medium-term and long-term mortality rates were assessed. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate changes over time. RESULTS: There were 622 814 surgical procedures 2006-2021. Age, ASA classification, and CCI increased over time ( P <0.0001). The proportions of age older than or equal to 60 years increased from 41.8 to 52.8% and of ASA class greater than or equal to 3 from 22.5 to 47.6%. Comparing 2018-2021 with 2006-2009, odds ratios (95% CIs) of 30-day, 90-day and 365-day mortality, adjusted for age, sex, non-elective surgery and ASA classification, decreased significantly to 0.75 (0.71-0.79), 0.72 (0.69-0.76), and 0.76 (0.74-0.79), respectively. CONCLUSION: Although the surgical population got older and sicker during the 16-year study period, short-term, medium-term and long-term mortality rates decreased significantly. These demographic shifts must be taken into account when planning for future healthcare needs to preserve patient safety.

Prognostic accuracy of emergency surgery score: a systematic review.

PURPOSE: This systematic review aimed to summarize the literature regarding the prognostic accuracy of the emergency surgery score (ESS). METHOD: PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus were comprehensively searched by May 30, 2023. Two independent researchers performed the initial screening by reviewing the titles and abstracts of the non-duplicate records and selecting the full text of articles meeting our inclusion criteria. Finally, original studies that reported the prognostic accuracy of ESS in any emergency surgeries were included. Data from the included studies were extracted into a checklist designed based on the PRISMA guidelines. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to compare the prognostic accuracy of ESS in different settings. RESULTS: Twenty-six studies met the inclusion criteria. ESS performed excellently in 30-day post-op mortality (AUC 0.84-0.89) and incidence of cardiac arrest (AUC 0.86-0.88) in emergency general surgeries. The AUC of ESS in overall 30-day morbidities varied from 0.72 to 0.82 in five cohort studies. In predicting the need for ICU admission, the study with the largest sample size reported the best sensitivity of ESS at 80% and the specificity at 85%. Moreover, an outstanding accuracy was observed for the prediction of 30-day sepsis/septic shock in emergency general surgeries (AUC 0.75-0.92). CONCLUSION: Despite the acceptable prognostic accuracy of ESS in 30-day mortality, morbidities, and in-hospital ICU admission in different emergency surgeries, the high number of required variables and the high probability of missing data highlight the need for modifications to this scoring system.

Variation in Hospital Performance for General Surgery in Younger and Older Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare hospital surgical performance in older and younger patients. BACKGROUND: In-hospital mortality after surgical procedures varies widely among hospitals. Prior studies suggest that failure-to-rescue rates drive this variation for older adults, but the generalizability of these findings to younger patients remains unknown. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥18 years undergoing one of 10 common and complex general surgery operations in 16 states using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Projects State Inpatient Databases (2016-2018). Patients were split into 2 populations: patients with Medicare ≥65 (older adult) and non-Medicare <65 (younger adult). Hospitals were sorted into quintiles using risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality rates for each age population. Correlations between hospitals in each mortality quintile across age populations were calculated. Complication and failure-to-rescue rates were compared across the highest and lowest mortality quintiles in each age population. RESULTS: We identified 579,582 patients treated in 732 hospitals. The mortality rate was 3.6% among older adults and 0.7% among younger adults. Among older adults, high- relative to low-mortality hospitals had similar complication rates (32.0% vs 29.8%; P = 0.059) and significantly higher failure-to-rescue rates (16.0% vs 4.0%; P < 0.001). Among younger adults, high-relative to low-mortality hospitals had higher complications (15.4% vs 12.1%; P < 0.001) and failure-to-rescue rates (8.3% vs 0.7%; P < 0.001). The correlation between observed-to-expected mortality ratios in each age group was 0.385 ( P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: High surgical mortality rates in younger patients may be driven by both complication and failure-to-rescue rates. There is little overlap between low-mortality hospitals in the older and younger adult populations. Future work must delve into the root causes of this age-based difference in hospital-level surgical outcomes.

Racial Disparities in Pediatric Mortality Following Transfusion Within 72 Hours of Operation.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative bleeding and transfusion are correlated with mortality risk. Furthermore, postoperative bleeding may often initiate the cascade of complications that leads to death. Given that minority children have increased risk of surgical complications, this study aimed to investigate the association of race with pediatric surgical mortality following postoperative transfusion. METHODS: We used the NSQIP-P PUF to assemble a retrospective cohort of children <18 who underwent inpatient surgery during 2012-2021. We included White, Black, Hispanic, and 'Other' children who received a transfusion within 72 h of surgery. The primary outcome was defined as all-cause mortality within 30 days following the primary surgical procedure. Using logistic regression models, we estimated the risk-adjusted odds ratio (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of mortality, comparing each racial/ethnic cohort to White children. RESULTS: A total of 466,230 children <18 years of age underwent inpatient surgical procedures from 2012 to 2021. Of these, 46,200 required transfusion and were included in our analysis. The majority of patients were non-Hispanic White (64.6%, n = 29,850), while 18.9% (n = 8752) were non-Hispanic Black, 11.7% (n = 5387) were Hispanic, and 4.8% (n = 2211) were 'Other' race. The overall rate of mortality following transfusion was 2.5%. White children had the lowest incidence of mortality (2.0%), compared to children of 'Other' race (2.5%), Hispanic children (3.1%), and Black children (3.6%). After adjusting for sex, age, comorbidities, case status, preoperative transfusion within 48 h, and year of operation, we found that Black children experienced 1.24 times the odds of mortality following a postoperative transfusion compared to a White child (aOR: 1.24; 95%CI, 1.03-1.51; P = 0.025). Hispanic children were also significantly more likely to die following a postoperative transfusion than White children (aOR: 1.19; 95%CI, 1.02-1.39; P = 0.027). CONCLUSION: We found that minority children who required a postoperative transfusion had a higher odds of death than White children. Future studies should explore adverse events following postoperative transfusion and the differences in their management by race that may contribute to the higher mortality rate for minority children. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER AND REGISTRY: Not applicable.

Racial Disparities in General Surgery Outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: While disparities in Black and Hispanic and Latino patients undergoing general surgeries are well described, most analyses leave out Asian, American Indian or Alaskan Native (AIAN), and native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander patients. This study identified general surgery outcomes for each racial group in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. METHODS: National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was queried to identify all procedures conducted by a general surgeon from 2017 to 2020 (n = 2,664,197). Multivariable regression models were used to investigate the impact of race and ethnicity on 30-day mortality, readmission, reoperation, major and minor medical complications, and non-home discharge destinations. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. RESULTS: Compared to non-Hispanic White patients, Black patients had higher odds of readmission and reoperation, and Hispanic and Latino patients had higher odds of major and minor complications. AIAN patients had higher odds of mortality (AOR: 1.003 (1.002-1.005), P < 0.001), major complication (AOR: 1.013 (1.006-1.020), P < 0.001), reoperation (AOR: 1.009, (1.005-1.013), P < 0.001), and non-home discharge destination (AOR: 1.006 (1.001-1.012), P = 0.025), while native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander patients had lower odds of readmission (AOR: 0.991 (0.983-0.999), P = 0.035) and non-home discharge destination (AOR: 0.983 (0.975-0.990), P < 0.001) compared to non-Hispanic White patients. Asian patients had lower odds of each adverse outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Black, Hispanic and Latino, and AIAN patients are at higher odds for poor postoperative results than non-Hispanic White patients. AIANs had some of the highest odds of mortality, major complications, reoperation, and non-home discharge. Social health determinants and policy adjustments must be targeted to ensure optimal operative results for all patients.

Association of Preoperative Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio with Postoperative Acute Kidney Injury and Mortality Following Major Noncardiac Surgeries.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a major complication that occurs following an operation. Therefore, there is an increasing need to discover new predictors of AKI. We hypothesized that the preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was associated with postoperative AKI and in-hospital mortality following noncardiac surgery. METHODS: This is a retrospective observational study of patients who underwent noncardiac surgery at Sichuan University West China Hospital from 2018 to 2020. Multivariable logistic regression was performed as the major analytic method. In addition, sensitivity and subgroup analyses were performed to validate the results. RESULTS: A total of 44,065 patients were included in this study. The prevalence of postoperative AKI was 5.62%, and the in-hospital mortality was 1.58%. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that NLR ≥ 5 was independently associated with the development of postoperative AKI (OR 1.42, 1.24-1.73; P < 0.001) and in-hospital mortality (OR 2.03, 1.63-2.52; P < 0.001). Similar results were achieved when propensity-score matching was performed for patients with NLR ≥ 5 and < 5 on the baseline. In stratified analysis, the associations remained persistent in most subgroups. For the sensitivity analysis, we took NLR as a continuous variable and demonstrated the potential linear relationship between NLR and postoperative AKI and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that preoperative NLR is associated with the prevalence of postoperative AKI and in-hospital mortality that occur after major noncardiac surgery. These findings suggest that NLR has the potential to be a significant correlation biomarker associated with perioperative risk assessment of patients undergoing noncardiac surgeries.

Riesgo quirúrgico tras resección pulmonar anatómica en cirugía torácica. Modelo predictivo a partir de una base de datos nacional multicéntrica / Surgical Risk Following Anatomic Lung Resection in Thoracic Surgery: A Prediction Model Derived from a Spanish Multicenter Database

Introducción: El objetivo es obtener un modelo predictor de riesgo quirúrgico en pacientes sometidos a resecciones pulmonares anatómicas a partir del registro del Grupo Español de Cirugía Torácica Videoasistida. Métodos: Se recogen datos de 3.533 pacientes sometidos a resección pulmonar anatómica por cualquier diagnóstico entre el 20 de diciembre de 2016 y el 20 de marzo de 2018.Definimos una variable resultado combinada: mortalidad o complicación Clavien Dindo IV a 90 días tras intervención quirúrgica. Se realizó análisis univariable y multivariable por regresión logística. La validación interna del modelo se llevó a cabo por técnicas de remuestreo. Resultados: La incidencia de la variable resultado fue del 4,29% (IC 95%: 3,6-4,9). Las variables que permanecen en el modelo logístico final fueron: edad, sexo, resección pulmonar oncológica previa, disnea (mMRC), neumonectomía derecha y DLCOppo. Los parámetros de rendimiento del modelo, ajustados por remuestreo, fueron: C-statistic 0,712 (IC 95%: 0,648-0,750), Brier score 0,042 y Booststrap shrinkage 0,854. Conclusiones: El modelo predictivo de riesgo obtenido a partir de la base de datos Grupo Español de Cirugía Torácica Videoasistida es un modelo sencillo, válido y fiable, y constituye una herramienta muy útil a la hora de establecer el riesgo de un paciente que se va a someter a una resección pulmonar anatómica. (AU)

Introduction: The aim of this study was to develop a surgical risk prediction model in patients undergoing anatomic lung resections from the registry of the Spanish Video-Assisted Thoracic Surgery Group (GEVATS). Methods: Data were collected from 3,533 patients undergoing anatomic lung resection for any diagnosis between December 20, 2016 and March 20, 2018.We defined a combined outcome variable: death or Clavien Dindo grade IV complication at 90 day.s after surgery. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed by logistic regression. Internal validation of the model was performed using resampling techniques. Results: The incidence of the outcome variable was 4.29% (95% CI 3.6-4.9). The variables remaining in the final logistic model were: age, sex, previous lung cancer resection, dyspnea (mMRC), right pneumonectomy, and ppo DLCO. The performance parameters of the model adjusted by resampling were: C-statistic 0.712 (95% CI 0.648-0.750), Brier score 0.042 and bootstrap shrinkage 0.854. Conclusions: The risk prediction model obtained from the GEVATS database is a simple, valid, and reliable model that is a useful tool for establishing the risk of a patient undergoing anatomic lung resection. (AU)