Changes in norovirus incidence in Victoria, Australia, 2022: are we back to normal yet after COVID?

Abstract: There were 108 norovirus-positive outbreaks in 2022, with 45 (41.7%) occurring during the first quarter (Q1), January-March. Aged care facilities accounted for 44.4% of norovirus-positive outbreaks; 43.5% were in childcare settings. Overall, the GII.P31/GII.4 genotype was the most common, involved in 39.4% of outbreaks; however, there were shifts in the most common genotype across the year. In Q1, the GII.P31/GII.4 genotype accounted for 73.3% of typed outbreaks, but by Q3 (July-September) the GII.P7/GII.6 was the most prominent genotype at 45.0%. In Q4 (October-December), the dominant genotype had changed again to GII.P16/GII.4 (52.6%). While the incidence of norovirus outbreaks in 2022 was average regarding overall prevalence and genotype diversity, there are still ongoing effects from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in relation to seasonality, outbreak demographics and specimen referral.

Assessing the quality of emergency department data for injury surveillance in Victoria, Australia: a comparative analysis of two Victorian hospital data sources.

OBJECTIVE: The emergency department (ED) is pivotal in treating serious injuries, making it a valuable source for population-based injury surveillance. In Victoria, information that is relevant to injury surveillance is collected in the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset (VEMD). This study aims to assess the data quality of the VEMD as an injury data source by comparing it with the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset (VAED). DESIGN: A retrospective observational study of administrative healthcare data. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: VEMD and VAED data from July 2014 to June 2019 were compared. Including only hospitals contributing to both datasets, cases that (1) arrived at the ED and (2) were subsequently admitted, were selected. RESULTS: While the overall number of cases was similar, VAED outnumbered VEMD cases (414 630 vs 404 608), suggesting potential under-reporting of injuries in the ED. Age-related differences indicated a relative under-representation of older individuals in the VEMD. Injuries caused by falls or transport, and intentional injuries were relatively under-reported in the VEMD. CONCLUSIONS: Injury cases were more numerous in the VAED than in the VEMD even though the number is expected to be equal based on case selection. Older patients were under-represented in the VEMD; this could partly be attributed to patients being admitted for an injury after they presented to the ED with a non-injury ailment. The patterns of under-representation described in this study should be taken into account in ED-based injury incidence reporting.

Trends in diabetic ketoacidosis in Victoria, Australia 2002-2016.

BACKGROUND: International longitudinal studies have indicated an increasing incidence of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA). We aim to examine the incident trends, demographic differences, length of stay and mortality for DKA in adults with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Victoria, Australia from 2002 to 2016. METHODS: Age and sex adjusted incident trends, length of stay and mortality for DKA was retrospectively obtained using the Victorian Admitted Episode Dataset between 2002 and 2016. Data for adults with T1D and T2D was obtained from the National Diabetes Services Scheme (NDSS). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify changes in linear trends that were described as average annual percentage change (AAPC). RESULTS: There were 23,628 DKA presentations in Victoria between 2002 and 2016. For T1D there was an increase in DKA presentations (AAPC + 6.8%) from 2003 to 2016 and for T2D there was a decline from 2003 to 2011 (APC - 3.5%), increase from 2011 to 2014 (APC + 38.5%), and a decrease from 2014 to 2016 (APC - 20.9%). Length of stay was longer for people with T2D than T1D (P < 0.001) and the mortality rate was 0.51% for the study period. CONCLUSIONS: DKA rates increased for T2D from 2011 to 2014 which correlates with the introduction of sodium glucose-linked transport protein 2 inhibitors. However, the aetiology for the observed increase in T1D from 2002 to 2016 remains unknown.

Carbapenemase-producing enterobacterales colonisation status does not lead to more frequent admissions: a linked patient study.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals in any given region can be considered as part of a network, where facilities are connected to one another - and hospital pathogens potentially spread - through the movement of patients between them. We sought to describe the hospital admission patterns of patients known to be colonised with carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE), and compare them with CPE-negative patient cohorts, matched on comorbidity information. METHODS: We performed a linkage study in Victoria, Australia, including datasets with notifiable diseases (CPE notifications) and hospital admissions (admission dates and diagnostic codes) for the period 2011 to 2020. Where the CPE notification date occurred during a hospital admission for the same patient, we identified this as the 'index admission'. We determined the number of distinct health services each patient was admitted to, and time to first admission to a different health service. We compared CPE-positive patients with four cohorts of CPE-negative patients, sampled based on different matching criteria. RESULTS: Of 528 unique patients who had CPE detected during a hospital admission, 222 (42%) were subsequently admitted to a different health service during the study period. Among these patients, CPE diagnosis tended to occur during admission to a metropolitan public hospital (86%, 190/222), whereas there was a greater number of metropolitan private (23%, 52/222) and rural public (18%, 39/222) hospitals for the subsequent admission. Median time to next admission was 4 days (IQR, 0-75 days). Admission patterns for CPE-positive patients was similar to the cohort of CPE-negative patients matched on index admission, time period, and age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index. CONCLUSIONS: Movement of CPE-positive patients between health services is not a rare event. While the most common movement is from one public metropolitan health service to another, there is also a trend for movement from metropolitan public hospitals into private and rural hospitals. After accounting for clinical comorbidities, CPE colonisation status does not appear to impact on hospital admission frequency or timing. These findings support the potential utility of a centralised notification and outbreak management system for CPE positive patients.

Obesity in women giving birth in Victoria, 2010-2019: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of obesity in pregnant women in Victoria, 2010-2019. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study; analysis of Victorian Perinatal Data Collection data. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Women who gave birth in seventeen Victorian Department of Health areas (eight metropolitan, nine regional), 2010-2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportions of births to women with obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2), by Department of Health area and year. RESULTS: A total of 710 364 births with records that included the mothers' BMI were recorded in Victoria during 2010-2019. The proportion of births to women with obesity rose from 19.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 19.3-19.9%) in 2010 to 21.5% (95% CI, 21.2-21.8%) in 2019; the proportion of births to women with normal weight declined from 49.0% (95% CI, 48.6-49.4%) to 46.8% (95% CI, 46.4-47.1%). In metropolitan areas, the proportion of births to women with obesity rose from 17.7% (95% CI, 17.7-17.8%) to 19.4% (95% CI, 19.3-19.4%); in regional areas, it increased from 25.0% (95% CI, 25.0-25.1%) to 29.1% (95% CI, 29.0-29.2%). The increase in prevalence of obesity was greater among women living in the lowest socio-economic standing (Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage) quintile than for those residing in the quintile of least disadvantage (adjusted rate ratio, 2.16; 95% CI, 2.12-2.20). CONCLUSION: The proportion of births to Victorian women with obesity rose during 2010-2019, particularly in regional areas. Ensuring that regional health services are adequately resourced to meet the needs of the increasing number of women at risk of obesity during pregnancy is vital.

Kawasaki Disease and Respiratory Viruses: Ecological Spatiotemporal Analysis.

Background: Kawasaki disease is an uncommon vasculitis affecting young children. Its etiology is not completely understood, although infections have been frequently postulated as the triggers. Respiratory viruses, specifically, have often been implicated as causative agents for Kawasaki disease presentations. Objective: We aimed to conduct an ecological spatiotemporal analysis to determine whether Kawasaki disease incidence was related to community respiratory virus circulation in a shared region and population, and to describe viral associations before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We obtained independent statewide data sets of hospital admissions of Kawasaki disease and respiratory multiplex polymerase chain reaction tests performed at two large hospital networks in Victoria, Australia, from July 2011 to November 2021. We studied spatiotemporal relationships by negative binomial regression analysis of the monthly incidence of Kawasaki disease and the rate of positive respiratory polymerase chain reaction tests in different regions of Victoria. Peak viral seasons (95th percentile incidence) were compared to median viral circulation (50th percentile incidence) to calculate peak season increased rate ratios. Results: While no seasonal trend in Kawasaki disease incidence was identified throughout the study period, we found a 1.52 (99% CI 1.27-1.82) and a 1.43 (99% CI 1.17-1.73) increased rate ratio of Kawasaki disease presentations in association with human metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus circulation, respectively, before the COVID-19 pandemic. No respiratory viral associations with Kawasaki disease were observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions: Our large ecological analysis demonstrates novel spatiotemporal relationships between human metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus circulation with Kawasaki disease. The disappearance of these associations in the COVID-19 pandemic may reflect the reduced circulation of non-SARS-CoV-2 viruses during this period, supporting the prepandemic associations identified in this study. The roles of human metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus in Kawasaki disease etiology warrant further investigation.

Prevalence and outcomes of patients with SMuRF-less acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing awareness that patients without standard modifiable risk factors (SMuRFs; diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension and smoking) may represent a unique subset of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We aimed to investigate the prevalence and outcomes of patients with SMuRF-less ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) compared with those with SMuRFs. METHODS: We analysed data from the Melbourne Interventional Group PCI Registry. Patients with coronary artery disease were excluded. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included in-hospital and 30-day events. Long-term mortality was investigated using Cox-proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: From 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2020, 2727/18 988 (14.4%) patients were SMuRF less, with the proportion increasing over time. Mean age was similar for patients with and without SMuRFs (63 years), and fewer females were SMuRF-less (19.8% vs 25.4%, p<0.001). SMuRF-less patients were more likely to present with cardiac arrest (6.6% vs 3.9%, p<0.001) and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (59.1% vs 50.8%, p<0.001) and were more likely to experience postprocedural cardiogenic shock (4.5% vs 3.6%, p=0.019) and arrhythmia (11.2% vs 9.9%, p=0.029). At 30 days, mortality, myocardial infarction, revascularisation and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events did not differ between the groups. During median follow-up of 7 years, SMuRF-less patients had an adjusted 13% decreased rate of mortality (HR 0.87 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.97)). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of SMuRF-less patients increased over time. Presentation was more often a devastating cardiac event compared with those with SMuRFs. No difference in 30-day outcomes was observed and SMuRF-less patients had lower hazard for long-term mortality.

Missed Opportunities: A Retrospective Study of Hepatitis C Testing in Hospital Inpatients.

Increasing testing is key to achieving hepatitis C elimination. This retrospective study aimed to assess the testing cascade of patients at a regional hospital in Victoria, Australia, who inject drugs or are living with hepatitis C, to identify missed opportunities for hepatitis C care. Adult hospital inpatients and emergency department (ED) attendees from 2018 to 2021 with indications for intravenous drug use (IDU) or hepatitis C on their discharge or ED summary were included. Data sources: hospital admissions, pathology, hospital pharmacy, and outpatients. We assessed progression through the testing cascade and performed logistic regression analysis for predictors of hepatitis C care, including testing and treatment. Of 79,923 adults admitted, 1345 (1.7%) had IDU-coded separations and 628 (0.8%) had hepatitis C-coded separations (N = 1892). Hepatitis C virus (HCV) status at the end of the study was unknown for 1569 (82.9%). ED admissions were associated with increased odds of not providing hepatitis C care (odds ratio 3.29, 95% confidence interval 2.42-4.48). More than 2% of inpatients at our hospital have an indication for testing, however, most are not being tested despite their hospital contact. As we work toward HCV elimination in our region, we need to incorporate testing and linkage strategies within hospital departments with a higher prevalence of people at risk of infection.

COVID-19 outbreaks in residential aged care facilities: an agent-based modeling study.

Introduction: A disproportionate number of COVID-19 deaths occur in Residential Aged Care Facilities (RACFs), where better evidence is needed to target COVID-19 interventions to prevent mortality. This study used an agent-based model to assess the role of community prevalence, vaccination strategies, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 outcomes in RACFs in Victoria, Australia. Methods: The model simulated outbreaks in RACFs over time, and was calibrated to distributions for outbreak size, outbreak duration, and case fatality rate in Victorian RACFs over 2022. The number of incursions to RACFs per day were estimated to fit total deaths and diagnoses over time and community prevalence.Total infections, diagnoses, and deaths in RACFs were estimated over July 2023-June 2024 under scenarios of different: community epidemic wave assumptions (magnitude and frequency); RACF vaccination strategies (6-monthly, 12-monthly, no further vaccines); additional non-pharmaceutical interventions (10, 25, 50% efficacy); and reduction in incursions (30% or 60%). Results: Total RACF outcomes were proportional to cumulative community infections and incursion rates, suggesting potential for strategic visitation/staff policies or community-based interventions to reduce deaths. Recency of vaccination when epidemic waves occurred was critical; compared with 6-monthly boosters, 12-monthly boosters had approximately 1.2 times more deaths and no further boosters had approximately 1.6 times more deaths over July 2023-June 2024. Additional NPIs, even with only 10-25% efficacy, could lead to a 13-31% reduction in deaths in RACFs. Conclusion: Future community epidemic wave patterns are unknown but will be major drivers of outcomes in RACFs. Maintaining high coverage of recent vaccination, minimizing incursions, and increasing NPIs can have a major impact on cumulative infections and deaths.

Secular trends in gabapentinoid dispensing by compensated workers with low back pain: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The increase in gabapentinoid prescribing is paralleling the increase in serious harms. To describe the low back pain workers compensation population whose management included a gabapentinoid between 2010 and 2017, and determine secular trends in, and factors associated with gabapentinoid use. METHODS: We analysed claim-level and service-level data from the Victorian workers' compensation programme between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2017 for workers with an accepted claim for a low back pain injury and who had programme-funded gabapentinoid dispensing. Secular trends were calculated as a proportion of gabapentinoid dispensings per year. Poisson, negative binomial and Cox hazards models were used to examine changes over time in incidence and time to first dispensing. RESULTS: Of the 17 689 low back pain claimants, one in seven (14.7%) were dispensed at least one gabapentinoid during the first 2 years (n=2608). The proportion of workers who were dispensed a gabapentinoid significantly increased over time (7.9% in 2010 to 18.7% in 2017), despite a reduction in the number of claimants dispensed pain-related medicines. Gabapentinoid dispensing was significantly associated with an opioid analgesic or anti-depressant dispensing claim, but not claimant-level characteristics. The time to first gabapentinoid dispensing significantly decreased over time from 311.9 days (SD 200.7) in 2010 to 148.2 days (SD 183.1) in 2017. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of claimants dispensed a gabapentinoid more than doubled in the period 2010-2017; and the time to first dispensing halved during this period.

Staphylococcal carriage among captive dingoes (Canis dingo) in Victoria, Australia.

The evolutionary lineage and taxonomy of the Australian dingo is controversial, however recent genomic and gut metagenomic research has suggested that dingoes are evolutionarily distinct from modern dogs. Staphylococcus species are known commensal organisms of dogs and other mammals. In this study we took the opportunity to determine the carriage rate and antimicrobial resistance profiles of Staphylococcus species from 15 captive Australian dingoes. S. pseudintermedius was the only coagulase-positive species recovered, isolated from 6/15 (40%) and 9/13 (69%) of the animals during the 2020 (winter) and 2021 (summer) sampling times, respectively. Twenty-three coagulase-negative isolates were characterised, with S. equorum being the most frequently (20/23, 87%) recovered species. Two isolates of S. equorum had their genomes sequenced to learn more about this species. Antimicrobial resistance amongst both coagulase-positive and -negative isolates was low; with resistance to only 3 of 12 antimicrobials observed: penicillin, erythromycin, and trimethoprim. We have shown that the Australian dingo is a host organism for S. pseudintermedius much like it is in dogs, however the carriage rate was lower than has previously been reported from dogs in Australia.

Patterns of intimate partner violence exposure across the first 10 years of life and children's emotional-behavioural outcomes at 10 years.

BACKGROUND: Childhood exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) is associated with emotional-behavioural problems. However, little is known about children's emotional-behavioural outcomes following exposure to different long-term patterns of IPV. OBJECTIVE: The current study aimed to investigate the emotional-behavioural functioning of children at 10 years of age following exposure to different patterns of IPV across the first 10 years of life. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Data for this study was drawn from the Mothers' and Young People's Study- a longitudinal study of 1507 first time mothers and their first born child. METHODS: Women were recruited during pregnancy from six public hospitals in Victoria, Australia. Data was collected during pregnancy, and at one, four and ten years postpartum. Four patterns of IPV exposure were previously identified: (a) minimal IPV exposure; (b) early IPV; (c) Increasing IPV; and (d) persistent IPV. Logistic regression was used to assess associations between IPV exposure and emotional-behavioural outcomes. RESULTS: Exposure to early, increasing, or persistent IPV was associated with increased odds of experiencing emotional-behavioural difficulties (OR 2.15-2.97). Children exposed to a persistent pattern of IPV experienced over 6 times the odds of conduct problems (OR = 6.15 CI = 2.3-16.44). CONCLUSIONS: Children exposed to early, increasing, or persistent IPV experienced increased odds of emotional-behavioural problems at age 10, regardless of the duration or type of violence they were exposed to. However, children exposed to persistent IPV across childhood appeared to experience the highest odds of emotional-behavioural difficulties.

Prevalence, risk factors, and outcomes of secondary infections among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 or post-COVID-19 conditions in Victoria, 2020-2023.

OBJECTIVES: Estimates of secondary infections are variedly reported, with few studies done in Australia. We investigated the occurrence and impact of secondary infections complicating COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 admissions in Victoria, Australia, 2020-2023. METHODS: We used linked population-wide data sets and specific International Classification of Disease, 10th Revision codes to identify and estimate the occurrence of secondary infections. Using hospital/intensive care unit length of stay in negative binomial regression and mortality, we examined the impact of secondary infections. RESULTS: Secondary infections were identified in 6.9% (13,467 of 194,660) of COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 admissions: 6.0% (11,651 of 194,660) bacterial, 0.9% (1691 of 194,660) viral, and 0.2% (385 of 194,660) fungal. Prevalence was highest during the pre-Delta (10.4%) and Omicron-BA2 (8.1%) periods. Sepsis and pneumonia were the most reported syndromes; the occurrence of sepsis declined gradually over time. The odds of secondary infections were higher among the ≥70-year-olds (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.43-4.14, vs 20-29-year-olds), individuals with chronic conditions (aOR 3.15, 95% CI 2.88-3.45, vs those without), the unvaccinated (aOR 1.59, 95% CI 1.45-1.75), and the lowest socioeconomic group (aOR 1.12, 95% CI 1.05-1.19). Patients with secondary infections had 2.43 times longer hospital length of stay and 9.60 times longer intensive care unit length of stay than those without secondary infections. The mortality risk was 2.17 times higher in those with secondary infections. CONCLUSIONS: Secondary infections occurred in 69 per 1000 COVID-19-associated hospital admissions in Victoria, mostly in high-risk groups, and were associated with severe outcomes.

Health and Wellbeing of Regional and Rural Australian Healthcare Workers during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Baseline Cross-Sectional Findings from the Loddon Mallee Healthcare Worker COVID-19 Study-A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus 19 (COVID-19) has created complex pressures and challenges for healthcare systems worldwide; however, little is known about the impacts COVID-19 has had on regional/rural healthcare workers. The Loddon Mallee Healthcare Worker COVID-19 Study (LMHCWCS) cohort was established to explore and describe the immediate and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on regional and rural healthcare workers. METHODS: Eligible healthcare workers employed within 23 different healthcare organisations located in the Loddon Mallee region of Victoria, Australia, were included. In this cohort study, a total of 1313 participants were recruited from November 2020-May 2021. Symptoms of depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress, and burnout were measured using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), Generalised Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7), Impact of Events Scale-6 (IES-6), and Copenhagen Burnout Inventory (CBI), respectively. Resilience and optimism were measured using the Brief Resilience Scale and Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), respectively. Subjective fear of COVID-19 was measured using the Fear of COVID-19 Scale. RESULTS: These cross-sectional baseline findings demonstrate that regional/rural healthcare workers were experiencing moderate/severe depressive symptoms (n = 211, 16.1%), moderate to severe anxiety symptoms (n = 193, 14.7%), and high personal or patient/client burnout with median total scores of 46.4 (IQR = 28.6) and 25.0 (IQR = 29.2), respectively. There was a moderate degree of COVID-19-related fear. However, most participants demonstrated a normal/high degree of resilience (n = 854, 65.0%). Based on self-reporting, 15.4% had a BMI from 18.5 to 24.9 kgm2 and 37.0% have a BMI of 25 kgm2 or over. Overall, 7.3% of participants reported they were current smokers and 20.6% reported alcohol consumption that is considered moderate/high-risk drinking. Only 21.2% of the sample reported consuming four or more serves of vegetables daily and 37.8% reported consuming two or more serves of fruit daily. There were 48.0% the sample who reported having poor sleep quality measured using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI). CONCLUSION: Regional/rural healthcare workers in Victoria, Australia, were experiencing a moderate to high degree of psychological distress during the early stages of the pandemic. However, most participants demonstrated a normal/high degree of resilience. Findings will be used to inform policy options to support healthcare workers in responding to future pandemics.

Understanding Risk Factors for Oropharyngeal Gonorrhea Among Sex Workers Attending Sexual Health Clinics in 2 Australian Cities: Mixed Methods Study.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors for oropharyngeal gonorrhea have not been examined in sex workers despite the increasing prevalence of gonorrhea infection. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to determine the risk factors for oropharyngeal gonorrhea in female and gender-diverse sex workers (including cisgender and transgender women, nonbinary and gender fluid sex workers, and those with a different identity) and examine kissing, oral sex, and mouthwash practices with clients. METHODS: This mixed methods case-control study was conducted from 2018 to 2020 at 2 sexual health clinics in Melbourne, Victoria, and Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. We recruited 83 sex workers diagnosed with oropharyngeal gonorrhea (cases) and 581 sex workers without (controls). Semistructured interviews with 19 sex workers from Melbourne were conducted. RESULTS: In the case-control study, the median age of 664 sex workers was 30 (IQR 25-36) years. Almost 30% of sex workers (192/664, 28.9%) reported performing condomless fellatio on clients. Performing condomless fellatio with clients was the only behavior associated with oropharyngeal gonorrhea (adjusted odds ratio 3.6, 95% CI 1.7-7.6; P=.001). Most participants (521/664, 78.5%) used mouthwash frequently. In the qualitative study, almost all sex workers reported kissing clients due to demand and generally reported following clients' lead with regard to kissing style and duration. However, they used condoms for fellatio because they considered it a risky practice for contracting sexually transmitted infections, unlike cunnilingus without a dental dam. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that condomless fellatio is a risk factor for oropharyngeal gonorrhea among sex workers despite most sex workers using condoms with their clients for fellatio. Novel interventions, particularly targeting the oropharynx, will be required for oropharyngeal gonorrhea prevention.

Impact of an Automated Population-Level Cirrhosis Screening Program Using Common Pathology Tests on Rates of Cirrhosis Diagnosis and Linkage to Specialist Care (CAPRISE): Protocol for a Pilot Prospective Single-Arm Intervention Study.

BACKGROUND: People with compensated cirrhosis receive the greatest benefit from risk factor modification and prevention programs to reduce liver decompensation and improve early liver cancer detection. Blood-based liver fibrosis algorithms such as the Aspartate Transaminase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) and Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index are calculated using routinely ordered blood tests and are effective screening tests to exclude cirrhosis in people with chronic liver disease, triaging the need for further investigations to confirm cirrhosis and linkage to specialist care. OBJECTIVE: This pilot study aims to evaluate the impact of a population screening program for liver cirrhosis (CAPRISE [Cirrhosis Automated APRI and FIB-4 Screening Evaluation]), which uses automated APRI and FIB-4 calculation and reporting on routinely ordered blood tests, on monthly rates of referral for transient elastography, cirrhosis diagnosis, and linkage to specialist care. METHODS: We have partnered with a large pathology service in Victoria, Australia, to pilot a population-level liver cirrhosis screening package, which comprises (1) automated calculation and reporting of APRI and FIB-4 on routinely ordered blood tests; (2) provision of brief information about liver cirrhosis; and (3) a web link for transient elastography referral. APRI and FIB-4 will be prospectively calculated on all community-ordered pathology results in adults attending a single pathology service. This single-center, prospective, single-arm, pre-post study will compare the monthly rates of transient elastography (FibroScan) referral, liver cirrhosis diagnosis, and the proportion linked to specialist care in the 6 months after intervention to the 6 months prior to the intervention. RESULTS: As of January 2024, in the preintervention phase of this study, a total of 120,972 tests were performed by the laboratory. Of these tests, 78,947 (65.3%) tests were excluded, with the remaining 42,025 (34.7%) tests on 37,872 individuals meeting inclusion criteria with APRI and FIB-4 being able to be calculated. Of these 42,025 tests, 1.3% (n=531) had elevated APRI>1 occurring in 446 individuals, and 2.3% (n=985) had elevated FIB-4>2.67 occurring in 816 individuals. Linking these data with FibroScan referral and appointment attendance is ongoing and will continue during the intervention phase, which is expected to commence on February 1, 2024. CONCLUSIONS: We will determine the feasibility and effectiveness of automated APRI and FIB-4 reporting on the monthly rate of transient elastography referrals, liver cirrhosis diagnosis, and linkage to specialist care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12623000295640; https://tinyurl.com/58dv9ypp. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/56607.

Serosurvey for Japanese encephalitis virus antibodies following an outbreak in an immunologically naïve population, Victoria, 2022: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the distribution and prevalence of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) antibody (as evidence of past infection) in northern Victoria following the 2022 Japanese encephalitis outbreak, seeking to identify groups of people at particular risk of infection; to investigate the distribution and prevalence of antibodies to two related flaviviruses, Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) and West Nile virus Kunjin subtype (KUNV). STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional serosurvey (part of a national JEV serosurveillance program). SETTING: Three northern Victorian local public health units (Ovens Murray, Goulburn Valley, Loddon Mallee), 8 August - 1 December 2022. PARTICIPANTS: People opportunistically recruited at pathology collection centres and by targeted recruitment through community outreach and advertisements. People vaccinated against or who had been diagnosed with Japanese encephalitis were ineligible for participation, as were those born in countries where JEV is endemic. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Seroprevalence of JEV IgG antibody, overall and by selected factors of interest (occupations, water body exposure, recreational activities and locations, exposure to animals, protective measures). RESULTS: 813 participants were recruited (median age, 59 years [interquartile range, 42-69 years]; 496 female [61%]); 27 were JEV IgG-seropositive (3.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2-4.8%) (median age, 73 years [interquartile range, 63-78 years]; 13 female [48%]); none were IgM-seropositive. JEV IgG-seropositive participants were identified at all recruitment locations, including those without identified cases of Japanese encephalitis. The only risk factors associated with JEV IgG-seropositivity were age (per year: prevalence odds ratio [POR], 1.07; 95% CI, 1.03-1.10) and exposure to feral pigs (POR, 21; 95% CI, 1.7-190). The seroprevalence of antibody to MVEV was 3.0% (95% CI, 1.9-4.5%; 23 of 760 participants), and of KUNV antibody 3.3% (95% CI, 2.1-4.8%; 25 of 761). CONCLUSIONS: People living in northern Victoria are vulnerable to future JEV infection, but few risk factors are consistently associated with infection. Additional prevention strategies, including expanding vaccine eligibility, may be required to protect people in this region from Japanese encephalitis.