Hydro-meteorological droughts across the Baltic Region: The role of the accumulation periods.

Based on the physical and geographical conditions, the Baltic Region is categorised as a humid climate zone. This means that, there is usually more precipitation than evaporation throughout the year, suggesting that droughts should not occur frequently in this region. Despite the humid climate in the region, the study focused on assessing the spatio-temporal patterns of droughts. The drought events were analysed across the Baltic Region, including Sweden, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. This analysis included two drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), for different accumulation periods. Daily data series of precipitation and river discharge were used. The spatial and temporal analyses of selected drought indices were carried out for the Baltic Region. In addition, the decadal distribution of drought classes was analysed to disclose the temporal changes and spatial extent of drought patterns. The Pearson correlation between SPI and SDI was applied to investigate the relationship between meteorological and hydrological droughts. The analysis showed that stations with more short-duration SPI or SDI cases had fewer long-duration cases and vice versa. The number of SDI cases (SDI ≤ -1) increased in the Western Baltic States and some WGSs in Sweden and Finland from 1991 to 2020 compared to 1961-1990. The SPI showed no such tendencies except in Central Estonia and Southern Finland. The 6-month accumulation period played a crucial role in both the meteorological and hydrological drought analyses, as it revealed prolonged and widespread drought events. Furthermore, the 9- and 12-month accumulation periods showed similar trends in terms of drought duration and spatial extent. The highest number of correlation links between different months was found between SPI12-SDI9 and SPI12-SDI12. The results obtained have deepened our understanding of drought patterns and their potential impacts in the Baltic Region.

Impacts of low-head hydropower plants on cyprinid-dominated fish assemblages in Lithuanian rivers.

The meso-scale habitat simulation model MesoHABSIM was applied in three Lithuanian lowland rivers to study the effect of low-head hydropower plants (HPPs) on the fish habitats. Stream flow time series on a daily scale for the period 1970-2015 were used to describe flow regime downstream of HPPs for periods before and after their installation. Conditional habitat suitability criteria were developed for 4 species of cyprinid fish, schneider (Alburnoides bipunctatus), dace (Leuciscus leuciscus), roach (Rutilus rutilus) and vimba (Vimba vimba) to simulate their available habitat at different water discharges. Modelling results showed that HPPs have a significant impact on habitat availability in the low flow period in dry years below HPPs due to insufficient released flow. The environmental flow, as prescribed by the Lithuanian national law, is estimated between 80 and 95% exceedance probability of the mean minimum discharge of 30 days. This flow leads to a significant reduction in frequency and duration of available suitable habitats for vimba and schneider during low flow period. The roach habitat is the least affected. The results of habitat modelling are in line with the actual data on the occurrence and relative abundance of considered fish species in the studied river stretches. A general comparison of the relative abundance of modelled fish species in 42 natural river stretches and 20 stretches below the HPPs also showed that the relative abundance of roach is significantly higher, and that of schneider is significantly lower in river sections below the HPPs than the abundance in natural river sections. All results indicate that the current environmental flow does not secure survival of certain fish species. The applicability of the average low flow release during summer could be a plausible alternative to the current environmental flow in order to maintain ecosystem health and services.