Longitudinal changes and variation in human DNA methylation analysed with the Illumina MethylationEPIC BeadChip assay and their implications on forensic age prediction.

DNA methylation, a pivotal epigenetic modification, plays a crucial role in regulating gene expression and is known to undergo dynamic changes with age. The present study investigated epigenome-wide methylation profiles in 64 individuals over two time points, 15 years apart, using the Illumina EPIC850k arrays. A mixed-effects model identified 2821 age-associated differentially methylated CpG positions (aDMPs) with a median rate of change of 0.18% per year, consistent with a 10-15% change during a human lifespan. Significant variation in the baseline DNA methylation levels between individuals of similar ages as well as inconsistent direction of change with time across individuals were observed for all the aDMPs. Twenty-three of the 2821 aDMPs were previously incorporated into forensic age prediction models. These markers displayed larger changes in DNA methylation with age compared to all the aDMPs and less variation among individuals. Nevertheless, the forensic aDMPs also showed inter-individual variations in the direction of DNA methylation changes. Only cg16867657 in ELOVL2 exhibited a uniform direction of the age-related change among the investigated individuals, which supports the current knowledge that CpG sites in ELOVL2 are the best markers for age prediction.

Weight of evidence of Y-STR matches computed with the discrete Laplace method: Impact of adding a suspect's profile to a reference database.

The discrete Laplace method is recommended by multiple parties (including the International Society for Forensic Genetics, ISFG) to estimate the weight of evidence in criminal cases when a suspect's Y-STR profile matches the crime scene Y-STR profile. Unfortunately, modelling the distribution of Y-STR profiles in the population reference database is time-consuming and requires expert knowledge. When the suspect's Y-STR profile is added to the database, as would be the protocol in many cases, the parameters of the discrete Laplace model must be re-estimated. We found that the likelihood ratios with and without adding the suspect's Y-STR profile were almost identical with 1,000 or more Y-STR profiles in the database for Y-STR profiles with 8, 12, and 17 loci. Thus, likelihood ratio calculations can be performed in seconds if an established discrete Laplace model based on at least 1,000 Y-STR profiles is used. A match in a population reference database with 17 Y-STR loci from at least 1,000 male individuals results in a likelihood ratio above 10,000 in approximately 94% of the cases, and above 100,000 in approximately 82% of the cases. We offer free software accessible without restrictions to estimate a discrete Laplace model using a Y-STR reference database and subsequently to calculate likelihood ratios.

Comparison of global DNA methylation analysis by whole genome bisulfite sequencing and the Infinium Mouse Methylation BeadChip using fresh and fresh-frozen mouse epidermis.

Until recently, studying the murine methylome was restricted to sequencing-based methods. In this study we compared the global DNA methylation levels of hairless mouse epidermis using the recently released Infinium Mouse Methylation BeadChip from Illumina and whole genome bisulphite sequencing (WGBS). We also studied the effect of sample storage conditions by using fresh and fresh-frozen epidermis. The DNA methylation levels of 123,851 CpG sites covered by both the BeadChip and WGBS were compared. DNA methylation levels obtained with WGBS and the BeadChip were strongly correlated (Pearson correlation r = 0.984). We applied a threshold of 15 reads for the WGBS methylation analysis. Even at a threshold of 10 reads, we observed no substantial difference in DNA methylation levels compared with that obtained with the BeadChip. The DNA methylation levels from the fresh and the fresh-frozen samples were strongly correlated when analysed with both the BeadChip (r = 0.999) and WGBS (r = 0.994). We conclude that the two methods of analysis generally work equally well for studies of DNA methylation of mouse epidermis and find that fresh and fresh-frozen epidermis can generally be used equally well. The choice of method will depend on the specific study's aims and the available resources in the laboratory.

SNP allele calling of Illumina Infinium Omni5-4 data using the butterfly method.

We introduce a within-sample SNP calling method, called the "butterfly method", that improves the quality of SNP calling with the Illumina Infinium Omni5-4 SNP Kit. This was done by improving how no-calls are determined from allele signal intensities. High confidence of SNP allele calling is extremely important in forensic genetics and clinical diagnostics. This paper is accompanied by two open-source R packages, omni54manifest and snpbeadchip that make SNP calling easy by helping with bookkeeping and giving easy access to meta-information about the SNPs typed with the Illumina Infinium Omni5-4 Kit (including chromosome, probe type, and SNP bases). We compared the results from our method with those obtained with the Illumina GenomeStudio software (which does not provide sample and SNP specific genotype probabilities or other quality measures), and with whole-genome sequencing (WGS). Given the signal intensities, the SNP calling quality was optimised using a threshold for the a posteriori probability of a SNP belonging to a SNP cluster. By lowering the a posteriori probability threshold for no-calls, we obtained a higher call rate than GenomeStudio. Using a higher a posteriori probability threshold, we achieved a higher concordance with the WGS data than GenomeStudio. Our method had SNP call and concordance rates with WGS data of approximately 99%.

Reproducibility of the Infinium methylationEPIC BeadChip assay using low DNA amounts.

The Infinium MethylationEPIC BeadChip (EPIC) is a reliable method for measuring the DNA methylation of more than 850,000 CpG positions. In clinical and forensic settings, it is critical to be able to work with low DNA amounts without risking reduced reproducibility. We evaluated the EPIC for a range of DNA amounts using two-fold serial dilutions investigated on two different days. While the ß-value distributions were generally unaffected by decreasing DNA amounts, the median squared Pearson's correlation coefficient (R2) of between-days ß-value comparisons decreased from 0.994 (500 ng DNA) to 0.957 (16 ng DNA). The median standard deviation of the ß-values was 0.005 and up to 0.017 (median of medians: 0.014) for ß-values around 0.6-0.7. With decreasing amounts of DNA from 500 ng to 16 ng, the percentage of probes with standard deviations ≤ 0.1 decreased from 99.9% to 99.4%. This study showed that high reproducibility results are obtained with DNA amounts in the range 125-500 ng DNA, while DNA amounts equal to 63 ng or below gave less reproducible results.

Prediction of Eye Colour in Scandinavians Using the EyeColour 11 (EC11) SNP Set.

Description of a perpetrator's eye colour can be an important investigative lead in a forensic case with no apparent suspects. Herein, we present 11 SNPs (Eye Colour 11-EC11) that are important for eye colour prediction and eye colour prediction models for a two-category reporting system (blue and brown) and a three-category system (blue, intermediate, and brown). The EC11 SNPs were carefully selected from 44 pigmentary variants in seven genes previously found to be associated with eye colours in 757 Europeans (Danes, Swedes, and Italians). Mathematical models using three different reporting systems: a quantitative system (PIE-score), a two-category system (blue and brown), and a three-category system (blue, intermediate, brown) were used to rank the variants. SNPs with a sufficient mean variable importance (above 0.3%) were selected for EC11. Eye colour prediction models using the EC11 SNPs were developed using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) in an independent data set of 523 Norwegian individuals. Performance of the EC11 models for the two- and three-category system was compared with models based on the IrisPlex SNPs and the most important eye colour locus, rs12913832. We also compared model performances with the IrisPlex online tool (IrisPlex Web). The EC11 eye colour prediction models performed slightly better than the IrisPlex and rs12913832 models in all reporting systems and better than the IrisPlex Web in the three-category system. Three important points to consider prior to the implementation of eye colour prediction in a forensic genetic setting are discussed: (1) the reference population, (2) the SNP set, and (3) the reporting strategy.

DNA commission of the International Society of Forensic Genetics (ISFG): Recommendations on the interpretation of Y-STR results in forensic analysis.

Forensic genetic laboratories perform a large amount of STR analyses of the Y chromosome, in particular to analyze the male part of complex DNA mixtures. However, the statistical interpretation of evidence retrieved from Y-STR haplotypes is challenging. Due to the uni-parental inheritance mode, Y-STR loci are connected to each other and thus haplotypes show patterns of relationship on the familial and population level. This precludes the treatment of Y-STR loci as independently inherited variables and the application of the product rule. Instead, the dependency structure of Y-STRs needs to be included in the haplotype frequency estimation process affecting also the current paradigm of a random match probability that is in the autosomal case approximated by the population frequency assuming unrelatedness of sampled individuals. Information on the degree of paternal relatedness in the suspect population as well as on the familial network is however needed to interpret Y-chromosomal results in the best possible way. The previous recommendations of the DNA commission of the ISFG on the use of Y-STRs in forensic analysis published more than a decade ago [1] cover the interpretation issue only marginally. The current recommendations address a number of topics (frequency estimators, databases, metapopulations, LR formulation, triage, rapidly mutating Y-STRs) with relevance for the Y-STR statistics and recommend a decision-based procedure, which takes into account legal requirements as well as availability of population data and statistical methods.

Estimation of Y haplotype frequencies with lower order dependencies.

Estimating Y haplotype population frequencies is a demanding task in forensic genetics. Despite the suggestion of various methods, none these have yet reached a level of accuracy and precision that is acceptable to the forensic genetics community. At the basis of this problem is the complex dependency structure between the involved STR loci. Here, we approximate this structure by the use of specific graphical models, namely t-cherry junction trees. We apply trees of order three by which dependencies between three STR loci can be taken into account, thereby extending the Chow-Liu method which is restricted to pairwise dependencies. We show that the t-cherry tree method outperforms the Chow-Liu method as well as the well-established discrete Laplace method in estimation accuracy.

Modelling the dependence structure of Y-STR haplotypes using graphical models.

Many methods have been suggested for evaluating the evidential value of a matching Y-chromosomal DNA profile obtained from a biological stain associated with a crime scene and the Y-chromosomal DNA profile of a suspect. Most of these methods are based on estimating the population frequency of the Y-profile. The common independence assumption between loci for autosomal DNA profiles cannot be used for Y-chromosomal DNA profiles. In this paper we reconsider the problem of population frequency estimation by application of Bayesian networks and the Chow-Liu algorithm to model dependencies between loci. We found that the method based on the Chow-Liu algorithm performs almost as well as the discrete Laplace method. We have also made comparisons to the independence model and we have demonstrated once again that the independence method for Y-profiles cannot be supported.

YfilerⓇ Plus population samples and dilution series: stutters, analytic thresholds, and drop-out probabilities.

The Yfiler Ⓡ Plus Amplification Kit amplifies 27 Y chromosomal small tandem repeat (STR) markers. The kit has five-fluorescent dye chemistry and the improved PCR buffer system of modern STR kits. We validated the kit for accredited investigations of crime scene samples by a thorough study of kit dynamics and performance. We determined dye-dependent analytical thresholds by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and made a customised artefact filter that includes theoretical known artefacts by use of previously analysed population samples. Dilution series of known male DNA and a selection of crime scene samples were analysed with the customised thresholds and artefact filters. The Yfiler Ⓡ Plus Amplification Kit was sensitive giving full profiles down to 70 pg of male DNA. The balances between the fluorescent dyes as well as between loci were very good. The kit was able to produce full Y-STR profiles from crime scene samples containing small amounts of male DNA and large amounts of female DNA (although unspecific reactions were evident for very unbalanced mixtures). A decrease in the drop-out rate was found for both the dilution series and population samples, as well as a small increase in the drop-in rate for population samples, using the customised threshold and artefact filters compared to company-provided thresholds and artefact filters. The additional drop-ins were all of a nature that would be detected by inspection of the results. For the crime scene samples, large amounts of female DNA complicated the analysis by causing drop-ins of characteristic female DNA artefacts. Even though the customised analytical threshold in combination with the custom-made artefact filters gave more alleles, crime scene samples still needed special attention from the forensic geneticist.

Identifying the most likely contributors to a Y-STR mixture using the discrete Laplace method.

In some crime cases, the male part of the DNA in a stain can only be analysed using Y chromosomal markers, e.g. Y-STRs. This may be the case in e.g. rape cases, where the male components can only be detected as Y-STR profiles, because the fraction of male DNA is much smaller than that of female DNA, which can mask the male results when autosomal STRs are investigated. Sometimes, mixtures of Y-STRs are observed, e.g. in rape cases with multiple offenders. In such cases, Y-STR mixture analysis is required, e.g. by mixture deconvolution, to deduce the most likely DNA profiles from the contributors. We demonstrate how the discrete Laplace method can be used to separate a two person Y-STR mixture, where the Y-STR profiles of the true contributors are not present in the reference dataset, which is often the case for Y-STR profiles in real case work. We also briefly discuss how to calculate the weight of the evidence using the likelihood ratio principle when a suspect's Y-STR profile fits into a two person mixture. We used three datasets with between 7 and 21 Y-STR loci: Denmark (n=181), Somalia (n=201) and Germany (n=3443). The Danish dataset with 21 loci was truncated to 15 and 10 loci to examine the effect of the number of loci. For each of these datasets, an out of sample simulation study was performed: A total of 550 mixtures were composed by randomly sampling two haplotypes, h1 and h2, from the dataset. We then used the discrete Laplace method on the remaining data (excluding h1 and h2) to rank the contributor pairs by the product of the contributors' estimated haplotype frequencies. Successful separation of mixtures (defined by the observation that the true contributor pair was among the 10 most likely contributor pairs) was found in 42-52% of the cases for 21 loci, 69-75% for 15 loci and 92-99% for 10 loci or less depending on the dataset and how the discrete Laplace model was chosen. Y-STR mixtures with many loci are difficult to separate, but even haplotypes with 21 Y-STR loci can be separated.

Cluster analysis of European Y-chromosomal STR haplotypes using the discrete Laplace method.

The European Y-chromosomal short tandem repeat (STR) haplotype distribution has previously been analysed in various ways. Here, we introduce a new way of analysing population substructure using a new method based on clustering within the discrete Laplace exponential family that models the probability distribution of the Y-STR haplotypes. Creating a consistent statistical model of the haplotypes enables us to perform a wide range of analyses. Previously, haplotype frequency estimation using the discrete Laplace method has been validated. In this paper we investigate how the discrete Laplace method can be used for cluster analysis to further validate the discrete Laplace method. A very important practical fact is that the calculations can be performed on a normal computer. We identified two sub-clusters of the Eastern and Western European Y-STR haplotypes similar to results of previous studies. We also compared pairwise distances (between geographically separated samples) with those obtained using the AMOVA method and found good agreement. Further analyses that are impossible with AMOVA were made using the discrete Laplace method: analysis of the homogeneity in two different ways and calculating marginal STR distributions. We found that the Y-STR haplotypes from e.g. Finland were relatively homogeneous as opposed to the relatively heterogeneous Y-STR haplotypes from e.g. Lublin, Eastern Poland and Berlin, Germany. We demonstrated that the observed distributions of alleles at each locus were similar to the expected ones. We also compared pairwise distances between geographically separated samples from Africa with those obtained using the AMOVA method and found good agreement.

Mechanical axis of the lower extremity determined by a new digital photographic method.

Assessment of the mechanical axis is routine during the examination of patients with lower extremity pain. Long-leg radiographic examination is the gold standard for exact measurement, but it is associated with a significant radiation dose. An alternative method to examine the mechanical axis has been warranted. This article validates a newly developed computerized photograph method to calculate the mechanical axis using a digital photograph. The location of the center of the femoral head was calculated using ink marks on both superior iliac spines. Twenty-five patients (10 women and 15 men) had both legs examined using the photographic method and long-leg radiography examination. The digital photograph method was found to be highly reliable. The interobserver absolute mean difference was 0.99°±0.85°, and the intraobserver absolute mean difference (day-to-day variation) was 1.04°±0.81°. The mechanical axis determined by the 2 methods was highly correlated (R=0.943). The long-leg radiography method was within an average of ±1.88° of the photographic method, with a 95% probability. The photographic method appears to be an effective alternative to conventional long-leg radiography. The photographic method seems convenient in the routine examination of patients with leg pain and children with suspected axial deformity and for follow-up after treatment for malalignment. Calculation coefficients for children and a possible racial difference remain to be studied.

The discrete Laplace exponential family and estimation of Y-STR haplotype frequencies.

Estimating haplotype frequencies is important in e.g. forensic genetics, where the frequencies are needed to calculate the likelihood ratio for the evidential weight of a DNA profile found at a crime scene. Estimation is naturally based on a population model, motivating the investigation of the Fisher-Wright model of evolution for haploid lineage DNA markers. An exponential family (a class of probability distributions that is well understood in probability theory such that inference is easily made by using existing software) called the 'discrete Laplace distribution' is described. We illustrate how well the discrete Laplace distribution approximates a more complicated distribution that arises by investigating the well-known population genetic Fisher-Wright model of evolution by a single-step mutation process. It was shown how the discrete Laplace distribution can be used to estimate haplotype frequencies for haploid lineage DNA markers (such as Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats), which in turn can be used to assess the evidential weight of a DNA profile found at a crime scene. This was done by making inference in a mixture of multivariate, marginally independent, discrete Laplace distributions using the EM algorithm to estimate the probabilities of membership of a set of unobserved subpopulations. The discrete Laplace distribution can be used to estimate haplotype frequencies with lower prediction error than other existing estimators. Furthermore, the calculations could be performed on a normal computer. This method was implemented in the freely available open source software R that is supported on Linux, MacOS and MS Windows.

Estimating Y-STR allelic drop-out rates and adjusting for interlocus balances.

Y chromosome short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) are valuable genetic markers in certain areas of forensic case-work. However, when the Y-STR DNA profile is weak, the observed Y-STR profile may not be complete--i.e. locus drop-out may have occurred. Another explanation could be that the stain DNA did not have a Y-STR allele that was detectable with the method used (the allele is a 'null allele'). If the Y-STR profile of a stain is strong, one would be reluctant to consider drop-out as a reasonable explanation of lack of a Y-STR allele and would maybe consider 'null allele' as an explanation. On the other hand, if the signal strengths are weak, one would most likely accept drop-out as a possible explanation. We created a logistic regression model to estimate the probability of allele drop-out with the Life Technologies/Applied Biosystems AmpFlSTR(®) Yfiler(®) kit such that the trade-off between drop-outs and null alleles could be quantified using a statistical model. The model to estimate the probability of drop-out uses information about locus imbalances, signal strength, the number of PCR cycles, and the fragment size of Yfiler. We made two temporarily separated experiments and found no evidence of temporal variation in the probability of drop-out. Using our model, we found that for 30 PCR cycles with a 150 bp allele, the probability of drop-out was 1:5000 corresponding to the average estimate of the probability of Y-STR null alleles at a signal strength of 1249 RFU. This means that the probability of a null allele is higher than that of an allele drop-out at e.g. 4000 RFU and the probability of drop-out is higher than that of a null allele at e.g. 75 RFU.

Estimating trace-suspect match probabilities for singleton Y-STR haplotypes using coalescent theory.

Estimation of match probabilities for singleton haplotypes of lineage markers, i.e. for haplotypes observed only once in a reference database augmented by a suspect profile, is an important problem in forensic genetics. We compared the performance of four estimators of singleton match probabilities for Y-STRs, namely the count estimate, both with and without Brenner's so-called 'kappa correction', the surveying estimate, and a previously proposed, but rarely used, coalescent-based approach implemented in the BATWING software. Extensive simulation with BATWING of the underlying population history, haplotype evolution and subsequent database sampling revealed that the coalescent-based approach is characterized by lower bias and lower mean squared error than the uncorrected count estimator and the surveying estimator. Moreover, in contrast to the two count estimators, both the surveying and the coalescent-based approach exhibited a good correlation between the estimated and true match probabilities. However, although its overall performance is thus better than that of any other recognized method, the coalescent-based estimator is still computation-intense on the verge of general impracticability. Its application in forensic practice therefore will have to be limited to small reference databases, or to isolated cases of particular interest, until more powerful algorithms for coalescent simulation have become available.

Y-STR Frequency Surveying Method: A critical reappraisal.

Reasonable formalized methods to estimate the frequencies of DNA profiles generated from lineage markers have been proposed in the past years and were discussed in the forensic community. Recently, collections of population data on the frequencies of variations in Y chromosomal STR profiles have reached a new quality with the establishment of the comprehensive neatly quality-controlled reference database YHRD. Grounded on such unrivalled empirical material from hundreds of populations studies the core assumption of the Haplotype Frequency Surveying Method originally described 10 years ago can be tested and improved. Here we provide new approaches to calculate the parameters used in the frequency surveying method: a maximum likelihood estimation of the regression parameters (r(1), r(2), s(1) and s(2)) and a revised Frequency Surveying framework with variable binning and a database preprocessing to take the population sub-structure into account. We found good estimates for 11 metapopulations using both approaches and demonstrate that the statistical basis of the method is well supported and independent of the population under study. The results of the estimation process are reliable and robust if the underlying datasets are large and representative and show small average and pairwise genetic distances.