The impact of abortion bans on short-term housing needs.

OBJECTIVES: State-level abortion bans in the United States have created a complex legal landscape that forces many prospective patients to travel long distances to access abortion care. The financial strain and logistical difficulties associated with travelling out of state for abortion care may present an insurmountable barrier to some individuals, especially to those with limited resources. Tracking the impact of these abortion bans on travel and housing is crucial for understanding abortion access and economic changes following the Dobbs U.S. Supreme Court decision. STUDY DESIGN: This study used occupancy data from an average of 2,349,635 (standard deviation = 111,578) U.S. Airbnb listings each month from October 1st, 2020, through April 30th, 2023, to measure the impact of abortion bans on travel for abortion care and the resulting economic effects on regional economies. METHODS: The study used a synthetic difference-in-differences design to compare monthly-level occupancy rate data from 1-bedroom entire-place Airbnb rentals within a 30-min driving distance of abortion clinics in states with and without abortion bans. RESULTS: The study found a 1.4 percentage point decrease in occupancy rates of Airbnbs around abortion clinics in states where abortion bans were in effect, demonstrating reductions in Airbnb use in states with bans. In the 6-month period post Dobbs, this decrease translates to 16,548 fewer renters and a $1.87 million loss in revenue for 1-bedroom entire-place Airbnbs within a 30-min catchment area of abortion facilities in states with abortion restrictions. CONCLUSION: This novel use of Airbnb data provides a unique perspective on measuring demand for abortion and healthcare services and demonstrates the value of this data stream as a tool for understanding economic impacts of health policies.

Utilizing general human movement models to predict the spread of emerging infectious diseases in resource poor settings.

Human mobility is an important driver of geographic spread of infectious pathogens. Detailed information about human movements during outbreaks are, however, difficult to obtain and may not be available during future epidemics. The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa between 2014-16 demonstrated how quickly pathogens can spread to large urban centers following one cross-species transmission event. Here we describe a flexible transmission model to test the utility of generalised human movement models in estimating EVD cases and spatial spread over the course of the outbreak. A transmission model that includes a general model of human mobility significantly improves prediction of EVD's incidence compared to models without this component. Human movement plays an important role not only to ignite the epidemic in locations previously disease free, but over the course of the entire epidemic. We also demonstrate important differences between countries in population mixing and the improved prediction attributable to movement metrics. Given their relative rareness, locally derived mobility data are unlikely to exist in advance of future epidemics or pandemics. Our findings show that transmission patterns derived from general human movement models can improve forecasts of spatio-temporal transmission patterns in places where local mobility data is unavailable.

Inferences about spatiotemporal variation in dengue virus transmission are sensitive to assumptions about human mobility: a case study using geolocated tweets from Lahore, Pakistan.

Billions of users of mobile phones, social media platforms, and other technologies generate an increasingly large volume of data that has the potential to be leveraged towards solving public health challenges. These and other big data resources tend to be most successful in epidemiological applications when utilized within an appropriate conceptual framework. Here, we demonstrate the importance of assumptions about host mobility in a framework for dynamic modeling of infectious disease spread among districts within a large urban area. Our analysis focused on spatial and temporal variation in the transmission of dengue virus (DENV) during a series of large seasonal epidemics in Lahore, Pakistan during 2011-2014. Similar to many directly transmitted diseases, DENV transmission occurs primarily where people spend time during daytime hours, given that DENV is transmitted by a day-biting mosquito. We inferred spatiotemporal variation in DENV transmission under five different assumptions about mobility patterns among ten districts of Lahore: no movement among districts, movement following patterns of geo-located tweets, movement proportional to district population size, and movement following the commonly used gravity and radiation models. Overall, we found that inferences about spatiotemporal variation in DENV transmission were highly sensitive to this range of assumptions about intra-urban human mobility patterns, although the three assumptions that allowed for a modest degree of intra-urban mobility all performed similarly in key respects. Differing inferences about transmission patterns based on our analysis are significant from an epidemiological perspective, as they have different implications for where control efforts should be targeted and whether conditions for transmission became more or less favorable over time. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1140/epjds/s13688-018-0144-x) contains supplementary material.

Case characteristics among Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak and non-outbreak cases in Saudi Arabia from 2012 to 2015.

OBJECTIVES: As of 1 November 2015, the Saudi Ministry of Health had reported 1273 cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS); among these cases, which included 9 outbreaks at several hospitals, 717 (56%) patients recovered, 14 (1%) remain hospitalised and 543 (43%) died. This study aimed to determine the epidemiological, demographic and clinical characteristics that distinguished cases of MERS contracted during outbreaks from those contracted sporadically (ie, non-outbreak) between 2012 and 2015 in Saudi Arabia. DESIGN: Data from the Saudi Ministry of Health of confirmed outbreak and non-outbreak cases of MERS coronavirus (CoV) infections from September 2012 through October 2015 were abstracted and analysed. Univariate and descriptive statistical analyses were conducted, and the time between disease onset and confirmation, onset and notification and onset and death were examined. RESULTS: A total of 1250 patients (aged 0-109 years; mean, 50.825 years) were reported infected with MERS-CoV. Approximately two-thirds of all MERS cases were diagnosed in men for outbreak and non-outbreak cases. Healthcare workers comprised 22% of all MERS cases for outbreak and non-outbreak cases. Nosocomial infections comprised one-third of all Saudi MERS cases; however, nosocomial infections occurred more frequently in outbreak than non-outbreak cases (p<0.001). Patients contracting MERS during an outbreak were significantly more likely to die of MERS (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: To date, nosocomial infections have fuelled MERS outbreaks. Given that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a worldwide religious travel destination, localised outbreaks may have massive global implications and effective outbreak preventive measures are needed.

Cloud-based Electronic Health Records for Real-time, Region-specific Influenza Surveillance.

Accurate real-time monitoring systems of influenza outbreaks help public health officials make informed decisions that may help save lives. We show that information extracted from cloud-based electronic health records databases, in combination with machine learning techniques and historical epidemiological information, have the potential to accurately and reliably provide near real-time regional estimates of flu outbreaks in the United States.

Global distribution and environmental suitability for chikungunya virus, 1952 to 2015.

Chikungunya fever is an acute febrile illness caused by the chikungunya virus (CHIKV), which is transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes. Although chikungunya fever is rarely fatal, patients can experience debilitating symptoms that last from months to years. Here we comprehensively assess the global distribution of chikungunya and produce high-resolution maps, using an established modelling framework that combines a comprehensive occurrence database with bespoke environmental correlates, including up-to-date Aedes distribution maps. This enables estimation of the current total population-at-risk of CHIKV transmission and identification of areas where the virus may spread to in the future. We identified 94 countries with good evidence for current CHIKV presence and a set of countries in the New and Old World with potential for future CHIKV establishment, demonstrated by high environmental suitability for transmission and in some cases previous sporadic reports. Aedes aegypti presence was identified as one of the major contributing factors to CHIKV transmission but significant geographical heterogeneity exists. We estimated 1.3 billion people are living in areas at-risk of CHIKV transmission. These maps provide a baseline for identifying areas where prevention and control efforts should be prioritised and can be used to guide estimation of the global burden of CHIKV.

New digital technologies for the surveillance of infectious diseases at mass gathering events.

Outbreaks of infectious diseases at mass gatherings can strain the health system of the host region and pose a threat to local and global health. In addition to strengthening existing surveillance systems, most host nations also use novel technologies to assess disease risk and augment traditional surveillance approaches. We review novel approaches to disease surveillance using the Internet, mobile phone applications, and wireless sensor networks. These novel approaches to disease surveillance can result in prompt detection.

One Health in social networks and social media.

In the rapidly evolving world of social media, social networks, mobile applications and citizen science, online communities can develop organically and separately from larger or more established organisations. The One Health online community is experiencing expansion from both the bottom up and the top down. In this paper, the authors review social media's strengths and weaknesses, earlier work examining Internet resources for One Health, the current state of One Health in social media (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube) and online social networking sites (e.g. LinkedIn and ResearchGate), as well as social media in One Health-related citizen science projects. While One Health has a fairly strong presence on websites, its social media presence is more limited and has an uneven geographic distribution. In work following the Stone Mountain Meeting,the One Health Global Network Task Force Report recommended the creation of an online community of practice. Professional social networks as well as the strategic use of social media should be employed in this effort. Finally, One Health-related research projects using volunteers (citizen science) often use social media to enhance their recruitment. Including these researchers in a community of practitioners would take full advantage of their existing social media presence. In conclusion, the interactive nature of social media, combined with increasing global Internet access, provides the One Health community with opportunities to meaningfully expand their community and promote their message.

An overview of internet biosurveillance.

Internet biosurveillance utilizes unstructured data from diverse web-based sources to provide early warning and situational awareness of public health threats. The scope of source coverage ranges from local media in the vernacular to international media in widely read languages. Internet biosurveillance is a timely modality that is available to government and public health officials, healthcare workers, and the public and private sector, serving as a real-time complementary approach to traditional indicator-based public health disease surveillance methods. Internet biosurveillance also supports the broader activity of epidemic intelligence. This overview covers the current state of the field of Internet biosurveillance, and provides a perspective on the future of the field.

Increased influenza-related healthcare utilization by residents of an urban aboriginal community.

Most studies describing high rates of acute respiratory illness in aboriginals have focused on rural or remote communities. Hypothesized causes include socioeconomic deprivation, limited access to healthcare, and a high prevalence of chronic disease. To assess influenza rates in an aboriginal community while accounting for healthcare access, deprivation and chronic disease prevalence, we compared rates of influenza-related outpatient and emergency-department visits in an urban Mohawk reserve (Kahnawá:ke) to rates in neighbouring regions with comparable living conditions and then restricted the analysis to a sub-population with a low chronic disease prevalence, i.e. those aged <20 years. Using medical billing claims from 1996 to 2006 we estimated age-sex standardized rate ratios. The rate in Kahnawá:ke was 58% greater than neighbouring regions and 98% greater in the analysis of those aged <20 years. Despite relatively favourable socioeconomic conditions and healthcare access, rates of influenza-related visits in Kahnawá:ke were elevated, particularly in the younger age groups.

Event-based biosurveillance of respiratory disease in Mexico, 2007-2009: connection to the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic?

The emergence of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus in North America and its subsequent global spread highlights the public health need for early warning of infectious disease outbreaks. Event-based biosurveillance, based on local- and regional-level Internet media reports, is one approach to early warning as well as to situational awareness. This study analyses media reports in Mexico collected by the Argus biosurveillance system between 1 October 2007 and 31 May 2009. Results from Mexico are compared with the United States and Canadian media reports obtained from the HealthMap system. A significant increase in reporting frequency of respiratory disease in Mexico during the 2008-9 influenza season relative to that of 2007-8 was observed (p<0.0001). The timing of events, based on media reports, suggests that respiratory disease was prevalent in parts of Mexico, and was reported as unusual, much earlier than the microbiological identification of the pandemic virus. Such observations suggest that abnormal respiratory disease frequency and severity was occurring in Mexico throughout the winter of 2008-2009, though its connection to the emergence of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus remains unclear.

An assessment of global Internet-based HIV/AIDS media coverage: implications for United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS' Global Media HIV/AIDS initiative.

No studies to date have assessed the quantity of HIV/AIDS-related media on the Internet. We assessed the quantity of language-specific HIV/AIDS Internet-based news coverage, and the correlation between country-specific HIV/AIDS news coverage and HIV/AIDS prevalence. Internet-based HIV/AIDS news articles were queried from Google News Archives for 168 countries, for the year 2007, in the nine most commonly spoken languages worldwide. English, French and Spanish sources had the greatest number of HIV/AIDS-related articles, representing 134,000 (0.70%), 11,200 (0.65%) and 24,300 (0.49%) of all news articles, respectively. A strong association between country-specific HIV/AIDS news coverage and HIV/AIDS prevalence was found, Spearman's rank correlation: 0.6 (P < 0.001). Among countries with elevated HIV/AIDS prevalence (> or =10%), the volume of HIV/AIDS-specific media was highest in Swaziland (15.9%) and Malawi (13.2%), and lowest in South Africa (4.8%) and Namibia (4.9%). Increased media attention should be placed on countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence and limited HIV/AIDS-specific news coverage.

Influenza A (H1N1) reports

It's a map which presents epidemiological data about the influenza A (H1N1) influenza based on reports from the CDC, the WHO and the HealthMap database. It can be shown by categories (ruled out, suspected, confirmed, cases and death) and by countries.

Effect of environmental factors on the spatio-temporal patterns of influenza spread.

Although spatio-temporal patterns of influenza spread often suggest that environmental factors play a role, their effect on the geographical variation in the timing of annual epidemics has not been assessed. We examined the effect of solar radiation, dew point, temperature and geographical position on the city-specific timing of epidemics in the USA. Using paediatric in-patient data from hospitals in 35 cities for each influenza season in the study period 2000-2005, we determined 'epidemic timing' by identifying the week of peak influenza activity. For each city we calculated averages of daily climate measurements for 1 October to 31 December. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to assess the strength of association between each variable and epidemic timing. Of the climate variables only solar radiation was significantly related to epidemic timing (95% CI -0.027 to -0.0032). Future studies may elucidate biological mechanisms intrinsically linked to solar radiation that contribute to epidemic timing in temperate regions.

Age-related trends in the timeliness and prediction of medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths due to pneumonia and influenza, British Columbia, Canada, 1998-2004.

The influenza immunization program in North America has been primarily designed to provide direct benefit to vaccinated individuals at highest risk of serious influenza outcomes. Some evidence suggests that immunization of certain age groups may also extend indirect protective benefit to vulnerable populations. Our goal was to identify age groups associated earliest with seasonal influenza activity and who may have the greatest indirect impact at the population level. We examined age-based associations between influenza medical visits and population-wide hospitalization/mortality due to pneumonia & influenza (P&I) using administrative datasets in British Columbia, Canada. A peak week was identified for each age group based on the highest rates observed in a given week for that study year. Mean rates at the peak week were averaged over the study years per age group. Timeliness (T) was defined as the mean difference in days between the first peak in influenza medical visits and population-wide P&I hospitalizations/deaths. Poisson regression was applied to calculate prediction (Pr) as the average proportion of deviance in P&I explained by influenza medical visits. T and Pr were derived by age group, and the product (T x Pr) was used as a summary measure to rank potential indirect effects of influenza by age group. Young children (0-23 months) and the elderly (> or = 65 years) had the highest peak rates of P&I hospitalization. Children < 6m and the elderly had the highest peak rates of P&I mortality. We found no significant differences by age for influenza medical visits in predicting population-wide P&I hospitalizations or deaths. School-aged children (5-19 years) showed the best relative combination of T x Pr, followed by preschool-aged children (2-4 years). We conclude that the very young and old suffer the greatest morbidity due to P&I, and an indirect role for school-aged children in anticipating the risk to others warrants further evaluation.

Efficacy of influenza vaccination in HIV-positive patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: International treatment guidelines recommend that HIV-positive patients be vaccinated for influenza annually. Evidence supporting this recommendation is limited. We assessed the efficacy of influenza vaccines in preventing influenza in HIV-positive patients through a systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: We searched 10 electronic databases independently, in duplicate (from inception to June 2007). We extracted data on study design, population characteristics and outcomes related to influenza symptoms and antibody titres. We pooled data using a random effects model and conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate heterogeneity. RESULTS: We included four studies. Three studies were evaluable for meta-analysis and yielded a pooled relative risk reduction (RRR) of 66% [95% confidence interval (CI) 36-82%; I(2)=73%]. One case-control study yielded an odds ratio of 1.98 (95% CI 0.75-5.20). When we assessed heterogeneity according to study design, we found that the study of the highest quality, a randomized clinical trial (RCT), yielded the most conservative estimate (RRR 41%; 95% CI 2-64%). INTERPRETATION: Evidence supporting influenza vaccination of HIV-positive individuals is limited, poorly quantified and characterized by substantial methodological shortcomings. A reasonable estimate of influenza vaccination effectiveness in HIV-positive patients cannot be derived from these data. There is an urgent need for randomized trials to guide policy and clinical practice.

HealthMap: the development of automated real-time internet surveillance for epidemic intelligence.

With the recent entry into force of the new International Health Regulations (IHR 2005), there is still significant concern as to whether broad compliance will be feasible given the challenges associated with reporting mechanisms and multilateral coordination.

Spatiotemporal patterns of host-seeking Ixodes scapularis nymphs (Acari: Ixodidae) in the United States.

The risk of Lyme disease for humans in the eastern United States is dependent on the density of host-seeking Ixodes scapularis Say nymphal stage ticks infected with Borrelia burgdorferi. Although many local and regional studies have estimated Lyme disease risk using these parameters, this is the first large-scale study using a standardized methodology. Density of host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs was measured by drag sampling of closed canopy deciduous forest habitats in 95 locations spaced among 2 degrees quadrants covering the entire United States east of the 100th meridian. Sampling was done in five standardized transects at each site and repeated three to six times during the summer of 2004. The total number of adults and nymphs of the seven tick species collected was 17,972, with 1,405 nymphal I. scapularis collected in 31 of the 95 sites. Peak global spatial autocorrelation values were found at the smallest lag distance (300 km) and decreased significantly after 1,000 km. Local auto-correlation statistics identified two significant high-density clusters around endemic areas in the northeast and upper Midwest and a low-density cluster in sites south of the 39th parallel, where only 21 nymphs were collected. Peak nymphal host-seeking density occurred earlier in the southern than in the most northern sites. Spatiotemporal density patterns will be combined with Borrelia prevalence data as part of a 4-yr survey to generate a nationwide spatial risk model for I. scapularis-borne Borrelia, which will improve targeting of disease prevention efforts.

The potential of virulent Wolbachia to modulate disease transmission by insects.

A virulent strain of Wolbachia has recently been identified in Drosophila that drastically reduces adult lifespan. It has been proposed that this phenotype might be introduced into insect disease vector populations to reduce pathogen transmission. Here we model the requirements for spread of such an agent and the associated reduction in disease transmission. First, a simulation of mosquito population age structure was used to describe the age distribution of mosquitoes transmitting dengue virus. Second, given varying levels of cytoplasmic incompatibility and fecundity effect, the maximum possible longevity reduction that would allow Wolbachia to invade was obtained. Finally, the two models were combined to estimate the reduction in disease transmission according to different introduction frequencies. With strong CI and limited effect of fecundity, an introduction of Wolbachia with an initial frequency of 0.4 could result in a 60-80% reduction of transmitting mosquitoes. Greater reductions are possible at higher initial release rates.