Inside ANEMIA of CKD: Projecting the Future Burden of Anemia of Chronic Kidney Disease and Benefits of Proactive Management: A Microsimulation Model of the Chinese Population.

INTRODUCTION: Anemia is a common comorbidity of chronic kidney disease (CKD) that has been associated with increased risk of complications, healthcare expenditure, and reduced quality of life. In China, the treatment of anemia of CKD has been reported to be suboptimal in part because of a lack of awareness of the condition and its management. It is therefore important to raise awareness of the condition by estimating the future health and economic burden of anemia of CKD and also to understand how it may be addressed through proactive policies. This study aims to project the health and economic burden of anemia of CKD, in China, from 2023 to 2027 and to estimate the impact of a hypothetical intervention on related clinical and cost outcomes. METHODS: A virtual Chinese population was simulated using demographic, clinical, and economic statistics within a validated CKD microsimulation model. Each individual was assigned a CKD stage, anemia stage, comorbidity status (type 2 diabetes, hypertension), complication status (stroke, heart failure, and/or myocardial infarction), and a probability of receiving treatments and therapies. Annual direct healthcare costs were assigned and based on these factors. The hypothetical intervention reduced the prevalence of moderate and severe anemia by 5% annually. This hypothetical scenario was chosen to highlight the impact of implementing policies that could reduce anemia of CKD, and is aligned with the Healthy China 2030 policy, which aims to reduce mortality from noncommunicable diseases by 30%. Interventions could consist of early screening and intervention to reduce the escalation of anemia from mild to moderate or severe. Results were compared with a baseline "no change" scenario which reflects current trends. RESULTS: The number of patients with moderate/severe anemia of CKD was projected to increase from 3.0 to 3.2 million patients, with associated costs increasing from ¥22.0 billion (B) to ¥24.4B between 2023 and 2027, respectively. Compared with the no change scenario, the hypothetical intervention reduced the prevalence of moderate and severe anemia of CKD, saving ¥3.9B in healthcare costs in 2027 (¥24.4B vs ¥20.6B, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with trends in CKD burden in China, the prevalence of anemia of CKD is projected to increase, leading to greater related healthcare costs. The introduction of healthcare interventions designed to screen for and treat anemia more effectively could therefore reduce its future burden and related costs.

Anemia, a common issue in chronic kidney disease, can lead to complications and increased healthcare costs. In China, anemia treatment for chronic kidney disease is often suboptimal because of a lack of awareness. This study aimed to estimate the future health and economic impact of anemia in chronic kidney disease in China from 2023 to 2027 and assess the effects of a hypothetical intervention. The research used a computer model to simulate a virtual Chinese population based on demographics, clinical data, and economic statistics. In the "no change" scenario, the prevalence of moderate/severe anemia in chronic kidney disease was projected to increase, with associated healthcare costs rising from ¥22.0B to ¥24.4B. A hypothetical intervention, reducing anemia prevalence by 5% annually, resulted in cost savings, lowering healthcare costs to ¥20.58B in 2027. In conclusion, anemia in chronic kidney disease is expected to increase in China, raising healthcare costs. Implementing interventions, such as early screening and treatment, could significantly reduce future burdens and related costs, emphasizing the need for proactive healthcare policies.

Projecting the economic burden of chronic kidney disease at the patient level (Inside CKD): a microsimulation modelling study.

Background: The growing burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) places substantial financial pressures on patients, healthcare systems, and society. An understanding of the costs attributed to CKD and kidney replacement therapy (KRT) is essential for evidence-based policy making. Inside CKD maps and projects the economic burden of CKD across 31 countries/regions from 2022 to 2027. Methods: A microsimulation model was developed that generated virtual populations using national demographics, relevant literature, and renal registries for the 31 countries/regions included. Patient-level country/region-specific cost data were extracted via a pragmatic local literature review and under advisement from local experts. Direct cost projections were generated for diagnosed CKD (by age, stage 3a-5), KRT (by modality), cardiovascular complications (heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke), and comorbidities (hypertension, type 2 diabetes). Findings: For the 31 countries/regions, Inside CKD projected that annual direct costs (US$) of diagnosed CKD and KRT would increase by 9.3% between 2022 and 2027, from $372.0 billion to $406.7 billion. Annual KRT-associated costs were projected to increase by 10.0% from $169.6 billion to $186.6 billion between 2022 and 2027. By 2027, patients receiving KRT are projected to constitute 5.3% of the diagnosed CKD population but contribute 45.9% of the total costs. Interpretation: The economic burden of CKD is projected to increase from 2022 to 2027. KRT contributes disproportionately to this burden. Earlier diagnosis and proactive management could slow disease progression, potentially alleviating the substantial costs associated with later CKD stages. Data presented here can be used to inform healthcare resource allocation and shape future policy. Funding: AstraZeneca.

Projected Health and Economic Burden of Comorbid Gout and Chronic Kidney Disease in a Virtual US Population: A Microsimulation Study.

INTRODUCTION: Gout, a common comorbidity of chronic kidney disease (CKD), is associated with high morbidity and healthcare utilization. However, a large proportion of gout remains undermanaged or untreated which may lead to worse patient outcomes and greater healthcare costs. This study estimates the present and future health and economic burden of controlled and uncontrolled gout in a virtual United States (US) CKD population. METHODS: A validated microsimulation model was used to project the burden of gout in patients with CKD in the USA through 2035. Databases were utilized to build a virtual CKD population of "individuals" with controlled or uncontrolled gout. Modelling assumptions were made on the basis of the literature, which was sparse in some cases. Health and economic outcomes with the current care (baseline) scenario were evaluated, along with potential benefits of urate-lowering intervention scenarios. RESULTS: The prevalence of comorbid gout and CKD in the USA was projected to increase by 29%, from 7.9 million in 2023 to 9.6 million in 2035 in the baseline scenario. Gout flares, tophi, and comorbidity development were also projected to increase markedly through 2035, with the economic burden of gout in the CKD population subsequently increasing from $38.9 billion in 2023 to $47.3 billion in 2035. An increased use of oral urate-lowering therapies in undermanaged patients, and pegloticase use in patients refractory to oral urate-lowering therapies were also project to result in 744,000 and 353,000 fewer uncontrolled gout cases, respectively, by 2035. Marked reductions in complications and costs ensued. CONCLUSIONS: This study projected a substantial increase in comorbid gout and CKD. However, improved use of urate-lowering interventions could mitigate this growth and reduce the health and economic burdens of gout.

Preventing liver disease with policy measures to tackle alcohol consumption and obesity: The HEPAHEALTH II study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic liver disease (CLD) causes 1.8% of all deaths in Europe, many of them from liver cancer. We estimated the impact of several policy interventions in France, the Netherlands, and Romania. METHODS: We used a validated microsimulation model to assess seven different policy scenarios in 2022-2030: a minimum unit price (MUP) of alcohol of €0.70 or €1, a volumetric alcohol tax, a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, food marketing restrictions, plus two different combinations of these policies compared against current policies (the 'inaction' scenario). RESULTS: All policies reduced the burden of CLD and liver cancer. The largest impact was observed for a MUP of €1, which by 2030 would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 7.1% to 7.3% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania compared with inaction. For liver cancer, the corresponding reductions in cumulative incidence were between 4.8% to 5.8%. Implementing a package containing a MUP of €0.70, a volumetric alcohol tax, and an SSB tax would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 4.29% to 4.71% and of liver cancer by between 3.47% to 3.95% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The total predicted reduction in healthcare costs by 2030 was greatest with the €1 MUP scenario, with a reduction for liver cancer costs of €8.18M and €612.49M in the Netherlands and France, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Policy measures tackling primary risk factors for CLD and liver cancer, such as the implementation of a MUP of €1 and/or a MUP of €0.70 plus SSB tax could markedly reduce the number of Europeans with CLD or liver cancer. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Policymakers must be aware that alcohol and obesity are the two leading risk factors for chronic liver disease and liver cancer in Europe and both are expected to increase in the future if no policy interventions are made. This study assessed the potential of different public health policy measures to mitigate the impact of alcohol consumption and obesity on the general population in three European countries: France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The findings support introducing a €1 minimum unit price for alcohol to reduce the burden of chronic liver disease. In addition, the study shows the importance of targeting multiple drivers of alcohol consumption and obesogenic products simultaneously via a harmonized fiscal policy framework, to complement efforts being made within health systems. These findings should encourage policymakers to introduce such policy measures across Europe to reduce the burden of liver disease. The modeling methods used in this study can assist in structuring similar modeling in other regions to expand on this study's findings.

How Could Different Obesity Scenarios Alter the Burden of Type 2 Diabetes and Liver Disease in Saudi Arabia?

INTRODUCTION: Obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and liver disease, and obesity-attributable liver disease is a common indication for liver transplant. Obesity prevalence in Saudi Arabia (SA) has increased in recent decades. SA has committed to the WHO "halt obesity" target to shift prevalence to 2010 levels by 2025. We estimated the future benefits of reducing obesity in SA on incidence and costs of T2DM and liver disease under two policy scenarios: (1) SA meets the "halt obesity" target; (2) population body mass index (BMI) is reduced by 1% annually from 2020 to 2040. METHODS: We developed a dynamic microsimulation of working-age people (20-59 years) in SA between 2010 and 2040. Model inputs included population demographic, disease and healthcare cost data, and relative risks of diseases associated with obesity. In our two policy scenarios, we manipulated population BMI and compared predicted disease incidence and associated healthcare costs to a baseline "no change" scenario. RESULTS: Adults <35 years are expected to meet the "halt obesity" target, but those ≥35 years are not. Obesity is set to decline for females, but to increase amongst males 35-59 years. If SA's working-age population achieved either scenario, >1.15 million combined cases of T2DM, liver disease, and liver cancer could be avoided by 2040. Healthcare cost savings for the "halt obesity" and 1% reduction scenarios are 46.7 and 32.8 billion USD, respectively. CONCLUSION: SA's younger working-age population is set to meet the "halt obesity" target, but those aged 35-59 are off track. Even a modest annual 1% BMI reduction could result in substantial future health and economic benefits. Our findings strongly support universal initiatives to reduce population-level obesity, with targeted initiatives for working-age people ≥35 years of age.

Global Economic Burden Associated with Chronic Kidney Disease: A Pragmatic Review of Medical Costs for the Inside CKD Research Programme.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressive disease of growing prevalence, posing serious concerns for global public health. While the economic burden of CKD is substantial, data on the cost of CKD is limited, despite growing pressures on healthcare systems. In this review, we summarise the available evidence in 31 countries and regions and compile a library of costing methodology and estimates of CKD management and disease-associated complications across 31 countries/regions within the Inside CKD programme. METHODS: We collected country/region-specific CKD costs via a pragmatic rapid literature review of local literature and engagement with local experts. We extracted cost data and definitions from identified sources for CKD stages G3a-5, kidney failure with replacement therapy by modality, covering haemodialysis, peritoneal dialysis, and kidney transplants, and disease-associated complications in local currency, converted to United States dollars (USD) and inflated to 2022. RESULTS: Annual direct costs associated with CKD management rose by an average factor of 4 in each country/region upon progression from stage G3a to G5. Mean annual costs per patient increased considerably more from early stages versus dialysis (stage G3a, mean: $3060 versus haemodialysis, mean: $57,334; peritoneal dialysis, mean: $49,490); with estimates for annual costs of transplant also substantially higher (incident: $75,326; subsequent: $16,672). The mean annual per patient costs of complications were $18,294 for myocardial infarction, $8463 for heart failure, $10,168 for stroke and $5975 for acute kidney injury. Costing definitions varied widely in granularity and/or definition across all countries/regions. CONCLUSION: Globally, CKD carries a significant economic burden, which increases substantially with increasing disease severity. We identified significant gaps in published costs and inconsistent costing definitions. Cost-effective interventions that target primary prevention and disease progression are essential to reduce CKD burden. Our results can be used to guide cost collection and facilitate better comparisons across countries/regions to inform healthcare policy.

The COVID-19 hangover: why we need to take harm caused by alcohol seriously as an indirect effect of the pandemic.

In the UK, harm caused by alcohol has worsened since 2020. A recent report from the Institute of Alcohol Studies projecting future rates of major alcohol-related diseases highlights what this means for health and healthcare. The authors argue that this additional burden is not inevitable if effective policies are introduced.