ABSTRACT
Background: Studies have reported the adverse effects of cold events on influenza. However, the role of critical factors, such as characteristics of cold spells, and regional variations remain unresolved. Objective: We aimed to systematically evaluate the association between cold spells and influenza incidence in mainland China. Methods: This time series analysis used surveillance data of daily influenza from 325 sites in China in the 2014-2019 period. A total of 15 definitions of cold spells were adopted based on combinations of temperature thresholds and days of duration. A distributed lag linear model was used to estimate the short-term effects of cold spells on influenza incidence during the cool seasons (November to March), and we further explored the potential impact of cold spell characteristics (ie, intensity, duration, and timing during the season) on the estimated associations. Meta-regressions were used to evaluate the modification effect of city-level socioeconomic indicators. Results: The overall effect of cold spells on influenza incidence increased with the temperature threshold used to define cold spells, whereas the added effects were generally small and not statistically significant. The relative risk of influenza-associated with cold spells was 3.35 (95% CI 2.89-3.88), and the estimated effects were stronger during the middle period of cool seasons. The health effects of cold spells varied geographically and residents in Jiangnan region were vulnerable groups (relative risk 7.36, 95% CI 5.44-9.95). The overall effects of cold spells were positively correlated with the urban population density, population size, gross domestic product per capita, and urbanization rate, indicating a sterner response to cold spells in metropolises. Conclusions: Cold spells create a substantial health burden on seasonal influenza in China. Findings on regional and socioeconomic differences in the health effects of cold spells on seasonal influenza may be useful in formulating region-specific public health policies to address the hazardous effects of cold spells.
Subject(s)
Cold Temperature , Influenza, Human , Humans , China/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Cold Temperature/adverse effects , Incidence , SeasonsABSTRACT
Background: Precipitation could affect the transmission of diarrheal diseases. The diverse precipitation patterns across different climates might influence the degree of diarrheal risk from precipitation. This study determined the associations between precipitation and diarrheal mortality in tropical, temperate, and arid climate regions. Methods: Daily counts of diarrheal mortality and 28-day cumulative precipitation from 1997 to 2019 were analyzed across 29 locations in eight middle-income countries (Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, India, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, and Thailand). A two-stage approach was employed: the first stage is conditional Poisson regression models for each location, and the second stage is meta-analysis for pooling location-specific coefficients by climate zone. Results: In tropical climates, higher precipitation increases the risk of diarrheal mortality. Under extremely wet conditions (95th percentile of 28-day cumulative precipitation), diarrheal mortality increased by 17.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.4%, 25.7%) compared with minimum-risk precipitation. For temperate and arid climates, diarrheal mortality increases in both dry and wet conditions. In extremely dry conditions (fifth percentile of 28-day cumulative precipitation), diarrheal mortality risk increases by 3.8% (95% CI = 1.2%, 6.5%) for temperate and 5.5% (95% CI = 1.0%, 10.2%) for arid climates. Similarly, under extremely wet conditions, diarrheal mortality risk increases by 2.5% (95% CI = -0.1%, 5.1%) for temperate and 4.1% (95% CI = 1.1%, 7.3%) for arid climates. Conclusions: Associations between precipitation and diarrheal mortality exhibit variations across different climate zones. It is crucial to consider climate-specific variations when generating global projections of future precipitation-related diarrheal mortality.
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BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. METHODS: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. RESULTS: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.
Subject(s)
Cardiovascular Diseases , Temperature , Humans , Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality , Mortality , Respiratory Tract Diseases/mortality , SeasonsABSTRACT
Brazil has experienced unprecedented wildfires recently. We aimed to investigate the association of wildfire-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5) with cause-specific cardiovascular mortality, and to estimate the attributable mortality burden. Exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 was defined as exposure to annual mean wildfire-related PM2.5 concentrations in the 1-year prior to death. The variant difference-in-differences method was employed to explore the wildfire-related PM2.5-cardiovascular mortality association. We found that, in Brazil, compared with the population in the first quartile (Q1: ≤1.82 µg/m3) of wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure, those in the fourth quartile (Q4: 4.22-17.12 µg/m3) of wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure had a 2.2% (RR: 1.022, 95% CI: 1.013-1.032) higher risk for total cardiovascular mortality, 3.1% (RR: 1.031, 95% CI: 1.014-1.048) for ischaemic heart disease mortality, and 2.0% (RR: 1.020, 95% CI: 1.002-1.038) for stroke mortality. From 2010 to 2018, an estimation of 35,847 (95% CI: 22,424-49,177) cardiovascular deaths, representing 17.77 (95% CI: 11.12-24.38) per 100,000 population, were attributable to wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure. Targeted health promotion strategies should be developed for local governments to protect the public from the risk of wildfire-related cardiovascular premature deaths.
Subject(s)
Air Pollutants , Air Pollution , Cardiovascular Diseases , Wildfires , Humans , Brazil/epidemiology , Environmental Exposure/adverse effects , Environmental Exposure/analysis , Particulate Matter/analysis , Cardiovascular Diseases/chemically induced , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Air Pollutants/analysis , Air Pollution/adverse effects , Air Pollution/analysisABSTRACT
Enormous health burden has been associated with air pollution and its effects continue to grow. However, the impact of air pollution on labour productivity at the population level is still unknown. This study assessed the association between premature death due to PM2.5 exposure and the loss of productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs), in Brazil. We applied a novel variant of the difference-in-difference (DID) approach to assess the association. Daily all-cause mortality data in Brazil were collected from 2000-2019. The PALYs lost increased by 5.11% (95% CI: 4.10-6.13%), for every 10 µg/m3 increase in the 2-day moving average of PM2.5. A total of 9,219,995 (95% CI: 7,491,634-10,921,141) PALYs lost and US$ 268.05 (95% CI: 217.82-317.50) billion economic costs were attributed to PM2.5 exposure, corresponding to 7.37% (95% CI: 5.99-8.73%) of the total PALYs lost due to premature death. This study also found that 5,005,306 PALYs could be avoided if the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guideline (AQG) level was met. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that ambient PM2.5 exposure is associated with a considerable labour productivity burden relating to premature death in Brazil, while over half of the burden could be prevented if the WHO AQG was met. The findings highlight the need to reduce ambient PM2.5 levels and provide strong evidence for the development of strategies to mitigate the economic impacts of air pollution.
Subject(s)
Air Pollution , Brazil/epidemiology , Quality-Adjusted Life Years , Particulate MatterABSTRACT
Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.
Subject(s)
Biodiversity , Hot Temperature , Humans , Temperature , Acclimatization , Climate ChangeABSTRACT
Non-optimal temperatures are associated with premature deaths globally. However, the evidence is limited in low- and middle-income countries, and the productivity losses due to non-optimal temperatures have not been quantified. We aimed to estimate the work-related impacts and economic losses attributable to non-optimal temperatures in Brazil. We collected daily mortality data from 510 immediate regions in Brazil during 2000 and 2019. A two-stage time-series analysis was applied to evaluate the association between non-optimum temperatures and the Productivity-Adjusted Life-Years (PALYs) lost. The temperature-PALYs association was fitted for each location in the first stage and then we applied meta-analyses to obtain the national estimations. The attributable fraction (AF) of PALY lost due to ambient temperatures and the corresponding economic costs were calculated for different subgroups of the working-age population. A total of 3,629,661 of PALYs lost were attributed to non-optimal temperatures during 2000-2019 in Brazil, corresponding to 2.90 % (95 % CI: 1.82 %, 3.95 %) of the total PALYs lost. Non-optimal temperatures have led to US$104.86 billion (95 % CI: 65.95, 142.70) of economic costs related to PALYs lost and the economic burden was more substantial in males and the population aged 15-44 years. Higher risks of extreme cold temperatures were observed in the South region in Brazil while extreme hot temperatures were observed in the Central West and Northeast regions. In conclusion, non-optimal temperatures are associated with considerable labour losses as well as economic costs in Brazil. Tailored policies and adaptation strategies should be proposed to mitigate the impacts of non-optimal temperatures on the labour supply in a changing climate.
Subject(s)
Efficiency , Mortality, Premature , Male , Humans , Temperature , Quality-Adjusted Life Years , Brazil/epidemiologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND AIM: The associations between COVID-19 transmission and meteorological factors are scientifically debated. Several studies have been conducted worldwide, with inconsistent findings. However, often these studies had methodological issues, e.g., did not exclude important confounding factors, or had limited geographic or temporal resolution. Our aim was to quantify associations between temporal variations in COVID-19 incidence and meteorological variables globally. METHODS: We analysed data from 455 cities across 20 countries from 3 February to 31 October 2020. We used a time-series analysis that assumes a quasi-Poisson distribution of the cases and incorporates distributed lag non-linear modelling for the exposure associations at the city-level while considering effects of autocorrelation, long-term trends, and day of the week. The confounding by governmental measures was accounted for by incorporating the Oxford Governmental Stringency Index. The effects of daily mean air temperature, relative and absolute humidity, and UV radiation were estimated by applying a meta-regression of local estimates with multi-level random effects for location, country, and climatic zone. RESULTS: We found that air temperature and absolute humidity influenced the spread of COVID-19 over a lag period of 15 days. Pooling the estimates globally showed that overall low temperatures (7.5 °C compared to 17.0 °C) and low absolute humidity (6.0 g/m3 compared to 11.0 g/m3) were associated with higher COVID-19 incidence (RR temp =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.08; 1.64 and RR AH =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.12; 1.57). RH revealed no significant trend and for UV some evidence of a positive association was found. These results were robust to sensitivity analysis. However, the study results also emphasise the heterogeneity of these associations in different countries. CONCLUSION: Globally, our results suggest that comparatively low temperatures and low absolute humidity were associated with increased risks of COVID-19 incidence. However, this study underlines regional heterogeneity of weather-related effects on COVID-19 transmission.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , Temperature , Humidity , Cities/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , Incidence , Ultraviolet Rays , China/epidemiologyABSTRACT
Background: Climate change is increasing the risks of injuries, diseases, and deaths globally. However, the association between ambient temperature and renal diseases has not been fully characterized. This study aimed to quantify the risk and attributable burden for hospitalizations of renal diseases related to ambient temperature. Methods: Daily hospital admission data from 1816 cities in Brazil were collected during 2000 and 2015. A time-stratified case-crossover design was applied to evaluate the association between temperature and renal diseases. Relative risks (RRs), attributable fractions (AFs), and their confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to estimate the associations and attributable burden. Findings: A total of 2,726,886 hospitalizations for renal diseases were recorded during the study period. For every 1°C increase in daily mean temperature, the estimated risk of hospitalization for renal diseases over lag 0-7 days increased by 0·9% (RR = 1·009, 95% CI: 1·008-1·010) at the national level. The associations between temperature and renal diseases were largest at lag 0 days but remained for lag 1-2 days. The risk was more prominent in females, children aged 0-4 years, and the elderly ≥ 80 years. 7·4% (95% CI: 5·2-9·6%) of hospitalizations for renal diseases could be attributable to the increase of temperature, equating to 202,093 (95% CI: 141,554-260,594) cases. Interpretation: This nationwide study provides robust evidence that more policies should be developed to prevent heat-related hospitalizations and mitigate climate change. Funding: China Scholarship Council, and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
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BACKGROUND: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. METHODS: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators. RESULTS: The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD. CONCLUSIONS: The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: In the context of climate change and deforestation, Brazil is facing more frequent and unprecedented wildfires. Wildfire-related PM2·5 is associated with multiple adverse health outcomes; however, the magnitude of these associations in the Brazilian context is unclear. We aimed to estimate the association between daily exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and cause-specific hospital admission and attributable health burden in the Brazilian population using a nationwide dataset from 2000 to 2015. METHODS: In this nationwide time-series analysis, data for daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory hospital admissions were collected through the Brazilian Unified Health System from 1814 municipalities in Brazil between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2015. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the 3D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 2·0° latitude by 2·5° longitude resolution. A time-series analysis was fitted using quasi-Poisson regression to quantify municipality-specific effect estimates, which were then pooled at the regional and national levels using random-effects meta-analyses. Analyses were stratified by sex and ten age groups. The attributable fraction and attributable cases of hospital admissions due to wildfire-related PM2·5 were also calculated. FINDINGS: At the national level, a 10 µg/m3 increase in wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with a 1·65% (95% CI 1·51-1·80) increase in all-cause hospital admissions, a 5·09% (4·73-5·44) increase in respiratory hospital admissions, and a 1·10% (0·78-1·42) increase in cardiovascular hospital admissions, over 0-1 days after the exposure. The effect estimates for all-cause hospital admission did not vary by sex, but were particularly high in children aged 4 years or younger (4·88% [95% CI 4·47-5·28]), children aged 5-9 years (2·33% [1·77-2·90]), and people aged 80 years and older (3·70% [3·20-4·20]) compared with other age groups. We estimated that 0·53% (95% CI 0·48-0·58) of all-cause hospital admissions were attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5, corresponding to 35 cases (95% CI 32-38) per 100â000 residents annually. The attributable rate was greatest for municipalities in the north, south, and central-west regions, and lowest in the northeast region. Results were consistent for all-cause and respiratory diseases across regions, but remained inconsistent for cardiovascular diseases. INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risks of all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular hospital admissions, particularly among children (0-9 years) and older people (≥80 years). Greater attention should be paid to reducing exposure to wildfire smoke, particularly for the most susceptible populations. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
Subject(s)
Wildfires , Aged , Australia , Brazil/epidemiology , Child , Hospitals , Humans , Particulate Matter/analysisABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Both cold and hot temperature have been associated with the onset of asthma, but it remains largely unknown about the risk of asthma hospitalisation associated with short-term temperature fluctuation or temperature variability (TV). OBJECTIVE: To explore the association between short-term exposure to TV and asthma hospitalisation in Brazil. METHODS: Data for asthma hospitalisation and weather conditions were collected from 1816 Brazilian cities between 2000 and 2015. TV was calculated as the SD of all daily minimum and maximum temperatures within 0-7 days prior to current day. A time-stratified case-crossover design was performed to quantify the association between TV and hospitalisation for asthma. RESULTS: A total of 2 818 911 hospitalisations for asthma were identified during the study period. Each 1°C increase in 0-7 days' TV exposure was related to a 1.0% (95% CI 0.7% to 1.4%) increase in asthma hospitalisations. The elderly were more vulnerable to TV than other age groups, while region and season appeared to significantly modify the associations. There were 159 305 (95% CI 55 293 to 2 58 054) hospitalisations, US$48.41 million (95% CI US$16.92 to US$78.30 million) inpatient costs at 2015 price and 450.44 thousand inpatient days (95% CI 156.08 to 729.91 thousand days) associated with TV during the study period. The fraction of asthma hospitalisations attributable to TV increased from 5.32% in 2000 to 5.88% in 2015. CONCLUSION: TV was significantly associated with asthma hospitalisation and the corresponding substantial health costs in Brazil. Our findings suggest that preventive measures of asthma should take TV into account.
Subject(s)
Asthma , Environmental Exposure , Aged , Asthma/epidemiology , Brazil/epidemiology , Cross-Over Studies , Environmental Exposure/analysis , Hospitalization , Humans , Seasons , TemperatureABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the short term associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide, using a uniform analytical protocol. DESIGN: Two stage, time series approach, with overdispersed generalised linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. SETTING: 398 cities in 22 low to high income countries/regions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily deaths from total (62.8 million), cardiovascular (19.7 million), and respiratory (5.5 million) causes between 1973 and 2018. RESULTS: On average, a 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration on lag 1 day (previous day) was associated with 0.46% (95% confidence interval 0.36% to 0.57%), 0.37% (0.22% to 0.51%), and 0.47% (0.21% to 0.72%) increases in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. These associations remained robust after adjusting for co-pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 µm or ≤2.5 µm (PM10 and PM2.5, respectively), ozone, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide). The pooled concentration-response curves for all three causes were almost linear without discernible thresholds. The proportion of deaths attributable to NO2 concentration above the counterfactual zero level was 1.23% (95% confidence interval 0.96% to 1.51%) across the 398 cities. CONCLUSIONS: This multilocation study provides key evidence on the independent and linear associations between short term exposure to NO2 and increased risk of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting that health benefits would be achieved by tightening the guidelines and regulatory limits of NO2.
Subject(s)
Air Pollutants/toxicity , Air Pollution/adverse effects , Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality , Global Health/statistics & numerical data , Nitrogen Dioxide/toxicity , Respiratory Tract Diseases/mortality , Urban Health/statistics & numerical data , Cardiovascular Diseases/chemically induced , Cities , Developed Countries/statistics & numerical data , Developing Countries/statistics & numerical data , Environmental Exposure/adverse effects , Humans , Linear Models , Respiratory Tract Diseases/chemically inducedABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Heat exposure has been related to increased morbidity and mortality for several health outcomes. There is little evidence whether this is also true for COPD. This study quantified the relationship between ambient heat and hospitalisation for COPD in the Brazilian population. METHODS: Data on hospitalisations for COPD and weather conditions were collected from 1642 cities during the 2000-2015 hot seasons. A time-stratified, case-crossover design was used for city-specific analyses, which were then pooled at the regional and national levels using random-effect meta-analyses. Stratified analyses were performed by sex, age group and early/late hot season. Annual change in the association was examined using a random-effect meta-regression model. RESULTS: The OR of hospitalisation was 1.05 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.06) for every 5â increase in daily mean temperature at the national level, with the effect estimate stronger in the late hot season compared with the early hot season. The effect was similar in women and in men but was greatest for those aged ≥75 years. The association was stronger in the central west and southeast regions and minimal in the northeast. Assuming a causal relationship, 7.2% of admissions were attributable to heat exposure. There was no significant temporal decline in the impact of ambient heat over the 16-year study period. CONCLUSION: In Brazil, exposure to ambient heat was positively associated with hospitalisation for COPD, particularly during the late hot season. These data add to the growing evidence base implicating global warming as being an important contributor to the future healthcare burden.
Subject(s)
Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Hot Temperature/adverse effects , Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/complications , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Brazil , Child , Child, Preschool , Cities/statistics & numerical data , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Middle Aged , Young AdultABSTRACT
An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100â¯ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16⯰C/100â¯ppm) and Finland (1.14⯰C/100â¯ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62⯰C/100â¯ppm) and Argentina (0.63⯰C/100â¯ppm). In addition, for each 1⯰C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
Subject(s)
Global Health , Global Warming , Forecasting , Humans , Mortality/trends , TemperatureABSTRACT
Although diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key index of climate change, few studies have reported the health burden of DTR and its temporal changes at a multi-country scale. Therefore, we assessed the attributable risk fraction of DTR on mortality and its temporal variations in a multi-country data set. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 308 cities in 10 countries from 1972 to 2013. The temporal change in DTR-related mortality was estimated for each city with a time-varying distributed lag model. Estimates for each city were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. The results showed that the attributable fraction of total mortality to DTR was 2.5% (95% eCI: 2.3-2.7%) over the entire study period. In all countries, the attributable fraction increased from 2.4% (2.1-2.7%) to 2.7% (2.4-2.9%) between the first and last study years. This study found that DTR has significantly contributed to mortality in all the countries studied, and this attributable fraction has significantly increased over time in the USA, the UK, Spain, and South Korea. Therefore, because the health burden of DTR is not likely to reduce in the near future, countermeasures are needed to alleviate its impact on human health.
Subject(s)
Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality , Climate Change , Temperature , Cities , Global Health , Humans , Mortality/trends , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally. METHODS: We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ≥2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave-mortality relation over lags of 0-10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition. RESULTS: Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave-mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026.
Subject(s)
Extreme Heat , Mortality/trends , Brazil , Humans , TaiwanABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The evidence and method are limited for the associations between mortality and temperature variability (TV) within or between days. OBJECTIVES: We developed a novel method to calculate TV and investigated TV-mortality associations using a large multicountry data set. METHODS: We collected daily data for temperature and mortality from 372 locations in 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, Moldova, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States). We calculated TV from the standard deviation of the minimum and maximum temperatures during the exposure days. Two-stage analyses were used to assess the relationship between TV and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression model allowing over-dispersion was used to estimate the community-specific TV-mortality relationship, after controlling for potential confounders. In the second stage, a meta-analysis was used to pool the effect estimates within each country. RESULTS: There was a significant association between TV and mortality in all countries, even after controlling for the effects of daily mean temperature. In stratified analyses, TV was still significantly associated with mortality in cold, hot, and moderate seasons. Mortality risks related to TV were higher in hot areas than in cold areas when using short TV exposures (0-1 days), whereas TV-related mortality risks were higher in moderate areas than in cold and hot areas when using longer TV exposures (0-7 days). CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that more attention should be paid to unstable weather conditions in order to protect health. These findings may have implications for developing public health policies to manage health risks of climate change. CITATION: Guo Y, Gasparrini A, Armstrong BG, Tawatsupa B, Tobias A, Lavigne E, Coelho MS, Pan X, Kim H, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Guo YL, Wu CF, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD, Bell ML, Overcenco A, Punnasiri K, Li S, Tian L, Saldiva P, Williams G, Tong S. 2016. Temperature variability and mortality: a multi-country study. Environ Health Perspect 124:1554-1559; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP149.
ABSTRACT
Foi feita revisão sistematizada de 67 artigos sobre o tema Clima Urbano e Saúde a partir de busca nas plataformas Web of Science e Pub Med. Os artigos foram organizados por data de publicação, país de realização do estudo, por temas: metodologias; evidências de riscos à saúde por estresse térmico e por doenças infecciosas relacionadas ao clima; mitigação dos extremos do clima urbano por vegetação e outras formas; cobenefícios e articulações políticas...
A systematized review of 67 articles on urban climate and health was carried out from searches in the Web of Science and PubMed platforms. The articles were organized by date of publication, by the country where the study was undertaken and by subject: methods; evidences of health risks from thermal stress and climate-related infectious diseases; mitigation of extreme urban climate conditions through vegetation and other means; co-benefits and political articulations...