Understanding delays in chronic limb-threatening ischaemia care: Application of the theoretical domains framework to identify factors affecting primary care clinicians' referral behaviours.

INTRODUCTION: Patients in the community with suspected Chronic limb-threatening ischaemia (CLTI) should be urgently referred to vascular services for investigation and management. The Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) allows identification of influences on health professional behaviour in order to inform future interventions. Here, the TDF is used to explore primary care clinicians' behaviours with regards to recognition and referral of CLTI. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 podiatrists, nurses and general practitioners in primary care. Directed content analysis was performed according to the framework method. Utterances were coded to TDF domains, and belief statements were defined by grouping similar utterances. Relevance of domains was confirmed according to belief frequency, presence of conflicting beliefs and the content of the beliefs indicating relevance. RESULTS: Nine TDF domains were identified as relevant to primary care clinicians: Knowledge, Environmental context and resources, Memory, Decision and attention processes, Beliefs about capabilities, Skills, Emotions, Reinforcement and Behavioural regulation. Relationships across domains were identified, including how primary care clinician confidence and working in a highly pressurized environment can affect behaviour. CONCLUSION: We have identified key barriers and enablers to timely recognition and referral behaviour. These beliefs identify targets for theory-driven behaviour change interventions to reduce delays in CLTI pathways.

Documentary analysis of national and international guidance for community clinicians referring patients with suspected chronic limb-threatening ischaemia.

BACKGROUND: Delayed referral of patients with chronic limb-threatening ischaemia (CLTI) from the community to vascular services may increase risk of amputation due to delayed revascularisation. Lack of appropriate guidance for clinicians in the community may contribute to this problem. This documentary analysis investigated referral guidance available to primary care clinicians. METHODS: National and international documents providing guidance on CLTI management were identified by searching sources including Medline, Embase, Guidelines International Network and College/Society websites. Data were extracted on referral recommendations, target audience and author groups. Recommendations were coded according to the Behaviour Change Technique Taxonomy. Clinical practice guideline quality and ease of implementation were assessed independently by two reviewers using the Appraisal of Guidelines Research and Evaluation (AGREE) II and Guideline Implementability Appraisal (GLIA) tools, respectively. RESULTS: 12 documents containing guidance on CLTI referrals were included. Five were clinical practice guidelines. Nine targeted clinicians in the community among their audience, yet only one included a primary care clinician in their author group. Recommendations on identification and referral of CLTI were often in non-specific language and frequently assumed specialist knowledge of vascular disease. Just 4 of the 93 behaviour change techniques were identified in the guidance documents. Three relevant domains of the AGREE II tool were scored for five clinical practice guidelines: stakeholder involvement (range 21.4%-52.4%, mean 42.9%), clarity of presentation (range 71.4%-92.9%, mean 82.9%) and applicability (25.0%-57.1%, mean 36.8%). The GLIA tool identified barriers to ease of implementation for all five clinical practice guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: Most guidance for clinicians in the community on the management of CLTI has been written without their input and assumes knowledge of vascular disease, which may be lacking. Future guidance development should involve community clinicians, consider using additional behaviour change techniques, and improve the applicability and ease of implementation of recommendations.

Outcomes Following Intact and Ruptured Aneurysm Repair across Nations: Analysis of International Registry Data from the VASCUNET Collaboration 2014 - 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the peri-operative mortality rate for intact and ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair in 10 countries and to compare practice and outcomes over a six year period by age, sex, and geographic location. METHODS: This VASCUNET study used prospectively collected data from vascular registries in 10 countries on primary repair of intact and ruptured AAAs undertaken between January 2014 and December 2019. The primary outcome was peri-operative death (30 day or in hospital). Logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between peri-operative death, patient characteristics, and type of procedure. Factors associated with the use of endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) were also evaluated. RESULTS: The analysis included 50 642 intact and 9 453 ruptured AAA repairs. The proportion of EVARs for intact repairs increased from 63.4% in 2014 to 67.3% in 2016 before falling to 62.3% in 2019 (p < .001), but practice varied between countries. EVAR procedures were more common among older patients (p < .001) and men (p < .001). Overall peri-operative mortality after intact AAA repair was 1.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3 - 1.5%) and did not change over time. Mortality rates were stable within countries. Among ruptured AAA repairs, the proportion of EVARs increased from 23.7% in 2014 to 35.2% in 2019 (p < .001). The average aortic diameter was 7.8 cm for men and 7.0 cm for women (p < .001). The overall peri-operative mortality rate was 31.3% (95% CI 30.4 - 32.2%); the rates were 36.0% (95% CI 34.9 - 37.2%) for open repair and 19.7% (95% CI 18.2 - 21.3%) for EVAR. This difference and shift to EVAR reduced peri-operative mortality from 32.6% (in 2014) to 28.7% (in 2019). CONCLUSION: The international practice of intact AAA repair was associated with low mortality rates in registry reported data. There remains variation in the use of EVAR for intact AAAs across countries. Overall peri-operative mortality remains high after ruptured AAA, but an increased use of EVAR has reduced rates over time.

The symptom to assessment pathway for suspected chronic limb-threatening ischaemia (CLTI) affects quality of care: a process mapping exercise.

BACKGROUND: Delays in the pathway from first symptom to treatment of chronic limb-threatening ischaemia (CLTI) are associated with worse mortality and limb loss outcomes. This study examined the processes used by vascular services to provide urgent care to patients with suspected CLTI referred from the community. METHODS: Vascular surgery units from various regions in England were invited to participate in a process mapping exercise. Clinical and non-clinical staff at participating units were interviewed, and process maps were created that captured key staff and structures used to create processes for referral receipt, triage and assessment at the units. RESULTS: Twelve vascular units participated, and process maps were created after interviews with 45 participants. The units offered multiple points of access for urgent referrals from general practitioners and other community clinicians. Triage processes were varied, with units using different mixes of staff (including medical staff, podiatrists and s) and this led to processes of varying speed. The organisation of clinics to provide slots for 'urgent' patients was also varied, with some adopting hot clinics, while others used dedicated slots in routine clinics. Service organisation could be further complicated by separate processes for patients with and without diabetes, and because of the organisation of services regionally into vascular networks that had arterial and non-arterial centres. CONCLUSIONS: For referred patients with symptoms of CLTI, the points of access, triage and assessment processes used by vascular units are diverse. This reflects the local context and ingenuity of vascular units but can lead to complex processes. It is likely that benefits might be gained from simplification.

Hospital clinicians' perceptions and experiences of care pathways for chronic limb-threatening ischaemia: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic limb-threatening ischaemia (CLTI) is a condition associated with significant risks of lower limb loss and mortality, which increase with delays in management. Guidance recommends urgent referral and assessment, but delays are evident at every stage of the CLTI patient pathway. This study uses qualitative methods to explore hospital clinicians' experiences and perceptions of the existing CLTI pathway. METHODS: A qualitative interview study was conducted. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with 13 clinicians involved in the assessment of patients referred to hospital with suspected CLTI, identified via purposive sampling from English vascular surgery units. Clinicians included podiatrists, vascular specialist nurses and doctors. Reflexive thematic analysis was performed on the data from a critical realist position. RESULTS: The need for speed was the single overarching theme identified. Four linked underlying themes were also identified; 1. Vascular surgery as the poor relation (compared to cancer and other specialties), with a sub-theme of CLTI being a challenging diagnosis. 2. Some patients are more equal than others, with sub-themes of diabetes vs. non-diabetes, hub vs. spoke and frailty vs. non-frail. 3. Life in the National Health Service (NHS) is tough, with sub-themes of lack of resource and we're all under pressure. 4. Non-surgeons can help. CONCLUSIONS: The underlying themes generated from the rich interview data describe barriers to timely referral, assessment and management of CLTI, as well as the utility of non-surgical roles such as podiatrists and vascular specialist nurses as a potential solution for delays. The overarching theme of the need for speed highlights the meaning given to adverse consequences of delays in management of CLTI by clinicians involved in its assessment. Future improvement projects aimed at the CLTI pathway should take these findings into account.

Long-term disease interactions amongst surgical patients: a population cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The average age of the surgical population continues to increase, as does prevalence of long-term diseases. However, outcomes amongst multi-morbid surgical patients are not well described. METHODS: We included adults undergoing non-obstetric surgical procedures in the English National Health Service between January 2010 and December 2015. Patients could be included multiple times in sequential 90-day procedure spells. Multi-morbidity was defined as presence of two or more long-term diseases identified using a modified Charlson comorbidity index. The primary outcome was 90-day postoperative death. Secondary outcomes included emergency hospital readmission within 90 days. We calculated age- and sex-adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using logistic regression. We compared the outcomes associated with different disease combinations. RESULTS: We identified 20 193 659 procedure spells among 13 062 715 individuals aged 57 (standard deviation 19) yr. Multi-morbidity was present among 2 577 049 (12.8%) spells with 195 965 deaths (7.6%), compared with 17 616 610 (88.2%) spells without multi-morbidity with 163 529 deaths (0.9%). Multi-morbidity was present in 1 902 859/16 946 808 (11.2%) elective spells, with 57 663 deaths (2.7%, OR 4.9 [95% CI: 4.9-4.9]), and 674 190/3 246 851 (20.7%) non-elective spells, with 138 302 deaths (20.5%, OR 3.0 [95% CI: 3.0-3.1]). Emergency readmission followed 547 399 (22.0%) spells with multi-morbidity compared with 1 255 526 (7.2%) without. Multi-morbid patients accounted for 57 663/114 783 (50.2%) deaths after elective spells, and 138 302/244 711 (56.5%) after non-elective spells. The rate of death varied five-fold from lowest to highest risk disease pairs. CONCLUSION: One in eight patients undergoing surgery have multi-morbidity, accounting for more than half of all postoperative deaths. Disease interactions amongst multi-morbid patients is an important determinant of patient outcome.

Benchmarking short-term postoperative mortality across neurosurgery units: is hospital administrative data good enough for risk-adjustment?

BACKGROUND: Surgical mortality indicators should be risk-adjusted when evaluating the performance of organisations. This study evaluated the performance of risk-adjustment models that used English hospital administrative data for 30-day mortality after neurosurgery. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data from 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2018. Organisational-level 30-day mortality was calculated for selected subspecialties (neuro-oncology, neurovascular and trauma neurosurgery) and the overall cohort. Risk adjustment models were developed using multivariable logistic regression and incorporated various patient variables: age, sex, admission method, social deprivation, comorbidity and frailty indices. Performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: The cohort included 49,044 patients. Overall, 30-day mortality rate was 4.9%, with unadjusted organisational rates ranging from 3.2 to 9.3%. The variables in the best performing models varied for the subspecialties; for trauma neurosurgery, a model that included deprivation and frailty had the best calibration, while for neuro-oncology a model with these variables plus comorbidity performed best. For neurovascular surgery, a simple model of age, sex and admission method performed best. Levels of discrimination varied for the subspecialties (range: 0.583 for trauma and 0.740 for neurovascular). The models were generally well calibrated. Application of the models to the organisation figures produced an average (median) absolute change in mortality of 0.33% (interquartile range (IQR) 0.15-0.72) for the overall cohort model. Median changes for the subspecialty models were 0.29% (neuro-oncology, IQR 0.15-0.42), 0.40% (neurovascular, IQR 0.24-0.78) and 0.49% (trauma neurosurgery, IQR 0.23-1.68). CONCLUSIONS: Reasonable risk-adjustment models for 30-day mortality after neurosurgery procedures were possible using variables from HES, although the models for trauma neurosurgery performed less well. Including a measure of frailty often improved model performance.

The Impact of Pre-Operative Anaemia on One Year Amputation Free Survival and Re-Admissions in Patients Undergoing Vascular Surgery for Peripheral Arterial Disease: a National Vascular Registry Study.

OBJECTIVE: Anaemia is common among patients undergoing surgery, but its association with post-operative outcomes in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is unclear. The aim of this observational population based study was to examine the association between pre-operative anaemia and one year outcomes after surgical revascularisation for PAD. METHODS: This study used data from the National Vascular Registry, linked with an administrative database (Hospital Episode Statistics), to identify patients who underwent open surgical lower limb revascularisation for PAD in English NHS hospitals between January 2016 and December 2019. The primary outcome was one year amputation free survival. Secondary outcomes were one year re-admission rate, 30 day re-intervention rate, 30 day ipsilateral major amputation rate and 30 day death. Flexible parametric survival analysis and generalised linear regression were performed to assess the effect of anaemia on one year outcomes. RESULTS: The analysis included 13 641 patients, 57.9% of whom had no anaemia, 23.8% mild, and 18.3% moderate or severe anaemia. At one year follow up, 80.6% of patients were alive and amputation free. The risk of one year amputation or death was elevated in patients with mild anaemia (adjusted HR 1.3; 95% CI 1.15 - 1.41) and moderate or severe anaemia (aHR 1.5; 1.33 - 1.67). Patients with moderate or severe anaemia experienced more re-admissions over one year (adjusted IRR 1.31; 1.26 - 1.37) and had higher odds of 30 day re-interventions (aOR 1.22; 1.04 - 1.45), 30 day ipsilateral major amputation (aOR 1.53; 1.17 - 2.01), and 30 day death (aOR 1.39; 1.03 - 1.88) compared with patients with no anaemia. CONCLUSION: Pre-operative anaemia is associated with lower one year amputation free survival and higher one year re-admission rates following surgical revascularisation in patients with PAD. Research is required to evaluate whether interventions to correct anaemia improve outcomes after lower limb revascularisation.

Outcomes after minor lower limb amputation for peripheral arterial disease and diabetes: population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with diabetes and peripheral arterial disease are at increased risk of minor amputation. The aim of study was to assess the rate of re-amputations and death after an initial minor amputation, and to identify associated risk factors. METHODS: Data on all patients aged 40 years and over with diabetes and/or peripheral arterial disease, who underwent minor amputation between January 2014 and December 2018, were extracted from Hospital Episode Statistics. Patients who had bilateral index procedures or an amputation in the 3 years before the study were excluded. Primary outcomes were ipsilateral major amputation and death after the index minor amputation. Secondary outcomes were ipsilateral minor re-amputations, and contralateral minor and major amputations. RESULTS: In this study of 22 118 patients, 16 808 (76.0 per cent) were men and 18 473 (83.5 per cent) had diabetes. At 1 year after minor amputation, the estimated ipsilateral major amputation rate was 10.7 (95 per cent c.i. 10.3 to 11.1) per cent. Factors associated with a higher risk of ipsilateral major amputation included male sex, severe frailty, diagnosis of gangrene, emergency admission, foot amputation (compared with toe amputation), and previous or concurrent revascularization. The estimated mortality rate was 17.2 (16.7 to 17.7) per cent at 1 year and 49.4 (48.6 to 50.1) per cent at 5 years after minor amputation. Older age, severe frailty, comorbidity, gangrene, and emergency admission were associated with a significantly higher mortality risk. CONCLUSION: Minor amputations were associated with a high risk of major amputation and death. One in 10 patients had an ipsilateral major amputation within the first year after minor amputation and half had died by 5 years.

Effectiveness of quality improvement collaboratives in UK surgical settings and barriers and facilitators influencing their implementation: a systematic review and evidence synthesis.

BACKGROUND: High-quality surgical care is vital to deliver the excellent outcomes patients deserve following surgical treatment. Quality improvement collaboratives (QICs) are based on a multicentre model for improving healthcare. They are increasingly used but their effectiveness in the context of surgical services is unclear. This review assessed effectiveness of QICs in National Health Service (NHS) surgical settings, and identified factors that influenced implementation. METHODS: A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE, as well as grey literature, was conducted in January 2022 to identify evaluations of QICs in NHS surgical settings. Data were extracted on the intervention, setting, study results and factors that were identified as facilitators or barriers. These were coded using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). The quality of study reports was assessed using Quality Improvement Minimum Criteria Set. RESULTS: Fifteen reports on 10 QICs met inclusion criteria. The evaluations used study designs of different strength, with one using a stepped-wedge randomised controlled trial (RCT). Eight studies reported the QIC had been successful in achieving their principal aims, which covered a mix of patient outcomes and process indicators. The study based on the RCT found the QIC was not successful (no improvement in patient outcomes). Each article reported a range of facilitators and barriers to effectiveness of implementation of the QIC, which were spread across the CFIR domains (intervention, outer setting, inner setting, individuals and process). There were few barriers reported in the intervention domain that related to the QIC. There was no clear relationship between numbers of facilitators and barriers reported and effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Studies have reported QICs to be effective in increasingly complex contexts, but their results must be treated with caution. The evaluations often used weak study designs and the quality of reports was variable. Evaluation with strong study design should be integral to future QICs. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022324970.

Diagnosis and treatment for gastro-oesophageal cancer in England and Wales: analysis of the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit (NOGCA) database 2012-2020.

BACKGROUND: The National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit (NOGCA) captures patient data from diagnosis to end of primary treatment for all patients with oesophagogastric (OG) cancer in England and Wales. This study assessed changes in patient characteristics, treatments received, and outcomes for OG cancer surgery for the period 2012-2020, and examined which factors may have led to changes in clinical outcomes over this time. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with OG cancer between April 2012 and March 2020 were included. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize patient demographics, disease site, type, and stage, patterns of care, and outcomes over time. The treatment variables of unit case volume, surgical approach, and neoadjuvant therapy were included. Regression models were used to examine associations between surgical outcomes (duration of stay and mortality), and patient and treatment variables. RESULTS: In total, 83 393 patients diagnosed with OG cancer during the study period were included. Patient demographics and cancer stage at diagnosis showed little change over time. Altogether, 17 650 patients underwent surgery as part of radical treatment. These patients had increasingly more advanced cancers, and a greater likelihood of pre-existing comorbidity in more recent years. Significant decreases in mortality rates and duration of stay were noted, along with improvements in oncological outcomes (nodal yields and margin positivity rates). Following adjustment for patient and treatment variables, increasing audit year and trust volume were associated, respectively, with improved postoperative outcomes: lower 30-day mortality (odds ratio (OR) 0.93 (95 per cent c.i. 0.88 to 0.98) and OR 0.99 (95 per cent c.i. 0.99-0.99)) and lower 90-day mortality (OR 0.94 (95 per cent c.i. 0.91 to 0.98) and OR 0.99 (95 per cent c.i. 0.99-0.99)), and a reduction in duration of postoperative stay (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.98 (95 per cent c.i. 0.97 to 0.98) and IRR 0.99 (95 per cent c.i. 0.99 to 0.99)). CONCLUSION: Outcomes of OG cancer surgery have improved over time, despite little evidence of improvements in early diagnosis. The underlying drivers for improvements in outcome are multifactorial.

Assessing national patterns and outcomes of pituitary surgery: is hospital administrative data good enough?

PURPOSE: Patterns of surgical care, outcomes, and quality of care can be assessed using hospital administrative databases but this requires accurate and complete data. The aim of this study was to explore whether the quality of hospital administrative data was sufficient to assess pituitary surgery practice in England. METHODS: The study analysed Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data from April 2013 to March 2018 on all adult patients undergoing pituitary surgery in England. A series of data quality indicators examined the attribution of cases to consultants, the coding of sellar and parasellar lesions, associated endocrine and visual disorders, and surgical procedures. Differences in data quality over time and between neurosurgical units were examined. RESULTS: A total of 5613 records describing pituitary procedures were identified. Overall, 97.3% had a diagnostic code for the tumour or lesion treated, with 29.7% (n = 1669) and 17.8% (n = 1000) describing endocrine and visual disorders, respectively. There was a significant reduction from the first to the fifth year in records that only contained a pituitary tumour code (63.7%-47.0%, p < .001). The use of procedure codes that attracted the highest tariff increased over time (66.4%-82.4%, p < .001). Patterns of coding varied widely between the 24 neurosurgical units. CONCLUSION: The quality of HES data on pituitary surgery has improved over time but there is wide variation in the quality of data between neurosurgical units. Research studies and quality improvement programmes using these data need to check it is of sufficient quality to not invalidate their results.

The DetectDeviatingCells algorithm was a useful addition to the toolkit for cellwise error detection in observational data.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the error detection performance of the DetectDeviatingCells (DDC) algorithm which flags data anomalies at observation (casewise) and variable (cellwise) level in continuous variables. We compared its performance to other approaches in a simulated dataset. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We simulated height and weight data for hypothetical individuals aged 2-20 years. We changed a proportion of height values according to predetermined error patterns. We applied the DDC algorithm and other error-detection approaches (descriptive statistics, plots, fixed-threshold rules, classic, and robust Mahalanobis distance) and we compared error detection performance with sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, predictive values, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: At our chosen thresholds error detection specificity was excellent across all scenarios for all methods and sensitivity was higher for multivariable and robust methods. The DDC algorithm performance was similar to other robust multivariable methods. Analysis of ROC curves suggested that all methods had comparable performance for gross errors (e.g., wrong measurement unit), but the DDC algorithm outperformed the others for more complex error patterns (e.g., transcription errors that are still plausible, although extreme). CONCLUSIONS: The DDC algorithm has the potential to improve error detection processes for observational data.

Editor's Choice - Outcomes of Surgery for Patients with Peripheral Arterial Disease During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom: A Population Based Study.

OBJECTIVE: There is limited information on changes in the patterns of care and outcomes for patients who had vascular procedures after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this population based study was to examine the patterns of care and outcomes for vascular lower limb procedures in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Lower limb revascularisations and major amputations performed from January 2019 to April 2021 in the UK and entered in the National Vascular Registry were included in the study. The primary outcome was in hospital post-operative death and secondary outcomes were complications and re-interventions. The study was divided into Pre-pandemic (1 January 2019 - 29 February 2020), Wave 1 (1 March - 30 June 2020), Respite (1 July - 31 October 2020), Wave 2/3 (1 November 2020 - 30 April 2021). RESULTS: The study included 36 938 procedures (7 245 major amputations, 16 712 endovascular, 12 981 open revascularisations), with 15 501 procedures after March 2020, a 27.7% reduction compared with pre-pandemic. The proportion of open surgical procedures performed under general anaesthetic was lower in Wave 1 and after compared with pre-pandemic (76.7% vs. 81.9%, p < .001). Only 4.6% of patients in the cohort had SARS-CoV-2 infection (n = 708), but their in hospital post-operative mortality rate was 25.0% (n = 177), six times higher than patients without SARS-CoV-2 (adjusted odds ratio 5.88; 95% CI 4.80 - 7.21, p < .001). The in hospital mortality rate was higher during the pandemic than pre-pandemic after elective open and endovascular revascularisation (respectively 1.6% vs. 1.1%, p = .033, and 0.9% vs. 0.5%, p = .005) and after major amputations (10.4% during Wave 2/3 vs. 7.7% pre-pandemic, p = .022). CONCLUSION: There was excess post-operative mortality rate for patients undergoing lower limb vascular procedures during the pandemic, which was associated with SARS-CoV-2 infections. Further research should be conducted on long term outcomes of patients operated on during the COVID-19 pandemic period.

The AUGIS Survival Predictor: Prediction of Long-Term and Conditional Survival After Esophagectomy Using Random Survival Forests.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model for overall survival after esophagectomy using pre/postoperative clinical data and machine learning. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: For patients with esophageal cancer, accurately predicting long-term survival after esophagectomy is challenging. This study investigated survival prediction after esophagectomy using a RandomSurvival Forest (RSF) model derived from routine data from a large, well-curated, national dataset. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with esophageal adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma between 2012 and 2018 in England and Wales who underwent an esophagectomy were included. Prediction models for overall survival were developed using the RSF method and Cox regression from 41 patient and disease characteristics. Calibration and discrimination (time-dependent area under the curve) were validated internally using bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: The study analyzed 6399 patients, with 2625 deaths during follow-up. Median follow-up was 41 months. Overall survival was 47.1% at 5 years. The final RSF model included 14 variables and had excellent discrimination with a 5-year time-dependent area under the receiver operator curve of 83.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 82.6%-84.9%], compared to 82.3% (95% CI 81.1%-83.3%) for the Cox model. The most important variables were lymph node involvement, pT stage, circumferential resection margin involvement (tumor at < 1 mm from cut edge) and age. There was a wide range of survival estimates even within TNM staging groups, with quintiles of prediction within Stage 3b ranging from 12.2% to 44.7% survival at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: An RSF model for long-term survival after esophagectomy exhibited excellent discrimination and well-calibrated predictions. At a patient level, it provides more accuracy than TNM staging alone and could help in the delivery of tailored treatment and follow-up.

Evaluation of the ICD-10 system in coding revascularisation procedures in patients with peripheral arterial disease in England: A retrospective cohort study using national administrative and clinical databases.

Background: Many studies evaluating care in hospitals in England use the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) administrative database. The aim of this study was to explore whether the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) system used by HES supported the evaluation of care received by patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) who had revascularisation. Methods: This retrospective cohort study used records on patients who had revascularisation for PAD between 1st January 2017 and 31st December 2019 in England, collected prospectively in the National Vascular Registry (NVR) and linked to HES. Patients were excluded if their NVR record did not have a match in HES, due to lack of consent or different admission and procedure dates. Agreement between different presentations of PAD recorded in the NVR and the ICD-10 diagnostic codes recorded in HES was evaluated using the unweighted Kappa statistic and sensitivity and specificity. Agreement between the NVR and HES was also assessed for gender, age, comorbidities, mode of admission, and procedure type and side. Findings: In total, 20,603 patients who had 24,621 admissions were included in the study. Agreement between NVR and HES on patient gender (Kappa = 0.98), age (Kappa = 0.98), mode of admission (Kappa = 0.80), and procedure type and side (Kappa = 0.92 and 0.87, respectively) was excellent. When all diagnostic fields in HES were explored, substantial agreement was observed for chronic ischaemia with tissue loss (Kappa = 0.63), but it was lower for chronic ischaemia without tissue loss (Kappa = 0.32) and acute limb ischaemia (Kappa = 0.15). Agreement on comorbidities was mixed; excellent for diabetes (Kappa = 0.82), moderate for chronic lung disease (Kappa = 0.56), chronic kidney disease (Kappa = 0.56), and ischaemic heart disease (Kappa = 0.45) and fair for chronic heart failure (Kappa = 0.35). Interpretation: The diagnostic ICD-10 codes currently used in HES cannot accurately differentiate between stages of PAD. Therefore, studies using HES to examine patterns of care and outcomes for patients with PAD are likely to suffer from misclassification bias. Adopting an extended ICD-10 system or the ICD-11 version released to the World Health Organisation member states in 2022, may overcome this problem. Funding: Healthcare Quality Improvement Partnership (HQIP).

Mortality as an indicator of quality of neurosurgical care in England: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Postoperative mortality is a widely used quality indicator, but it may be unreliable when procedure numbers and/or mortality rates are low, due to insufficient statistical power. The objective was to investigate the statistical validity of postoperative 30-day mortality as a quality metric for neurosurgical practice across healthcare providers. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Hospital Episode Statistics data from all neurosurgical units in England. PARTICIPANTS: Patients who underwent neurosurgical procedures between April 2013 and March 2018. Procedures were grouped using the National Neurosurgical Audit Programme classification. OUTCOMES MEASURED: National 30-day postoperative mortality rates were calculated for elective and non-elective neurosurgical procedural groups. The study estimated the proportion of neurosurgeons and NHS trusts in England that performed sufficient procedures in 3-year and 5-year periods to detect unusual performance (defined as double the national rate of mortality). The actual difference in mortality rates that could be reliably detected based on procedure volumes of neurosurgeons and units over a 5-year period was modelled. RESULTS: The 30-day mortality rates for all elective and non-elective procedures were 0.4% and 6.1%, respectively. Only one neurosurgeon in England achieved the minimum sample size (n=2402) of elective cases in 5 years needed to detect if their mortality rate was double the national average. All neurosurgical units achieved the minimum sample sizes for both elective (n=2402) and non-elective (n=149) procedures. In several neurosurgical subspecialties, approximately 80% of units (or more) achieved the minimum sample sizes needed to detect if their mortality rate was double the national rate, including elective neuro-oncology (baseline mortality rate=2.3%), non-elective neuro-oncology (rate=5.7%), neurovascular (rate=6.7%) and trauma (rate=11%). CONCLUSION: Postoperative mortality lacks statistical power as a measure of individual neurosurgeon performance. Neurosurgical units in England performed sufficient procedure numbers overall and in several subspecialty areas to support the use of mortality as a quality indicator.

Delays to revascularization for patients with chronic limb-threatening ischaemia.

BACKGROUND: Vascular services in England are organized into regional hub-and-spoke models, with hubs performing arterial surgery. This study examined time to revascularization for chronic limb-threatening ischaemia (CLTI) within and across different care pathways, and its association with postrevascularization outcomes. METHODS: Three inpatient and four outpatient care pathways were identified for patients with CLTI undergoing revascularization between April 2015 and March 2019 using Hospital Episode Statistics data. Differences in times from presentation to revascularization across care pathways were analysed using Cox regression. The relationship between postoperative outcomes and time to revascularization was evaluated by logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 16 483 patients with CLTI, 9470 had pathways starting with admission to a hub or spoke hospital, whereas 7013 (42.5 per cent) were first seen at outpatient visits. Among the inpatient pathways, patients admitted to arterial hubs had shorter times to revascularization than those admitted to spoke hospitals (median 5 (i.q.r. 2-10) versus 12 (7-19) days; P < 0.001). Shorter times to revascularization were also observed for patients presenting to outpatient clinics at arterial hubs compared with spoke hospitals (13 (6-25) versus 26 (15-35) days; P < 0.001). Within most care pathways, longer delays to revascularizsation were associated with increased risks of postoperative major amputation and in-hospital death, but the effect of delay differed across pathways. CONCLUSION: For patients with CLTI, time to revascularization was influenced by presentation to an arterial hub or spoke hospital. Generally, longer delays to revascularization were associated with worse outcomes, but the impact of delay differed across pathways.

Patterns and outcomes of neurosurgery in England over a five-year period: A national retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Neurosurgical practice has seen major changes over several decades. There are no recent evaluations of national neurosurgical practice. The aim of this observational study was to describe neurosurgical practice in England and to use outcomes to assess and benchmark the quality of care in neurosurgery. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This national retrospective cohort study analysed Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data from April 2013 to March 2018 for all adult admissions with a specialty code for neurosurgery. The epidemiology of patients and RCS Charlson comorbidities were derived and procedure incidence rates per 100,000 person-years calculated. Post-operative outcomes for elective and non-elective patients included: median length of stay, the proportion of patients requiring additional inpatient neurosurgical procedures, the proportion of patients discharged to their usual address, and in-hospital mortality rates. RESULTS: During the 5-year study period, there were 371,418 admissions to neurosurgery. The proportion of admissions involving a neurosurgical procedure was 77.3% (n = 287,077). Of these, 45% were for cranial surgery and 37% for spinal. Overall, 68.3% were elective procedures. The incidence rates of most procedures were low (<20 per 100,000 person-years). Following elective neurosurgical procedures, in-hospital mortality rates for cranial and spinal surgery were 0.5% (95% CI, 0.5-0.6) and 0.1% (95% CI, 0.04-0.1), respectively. After non-elective neurosurgery, mortality rates were 7.4% (95% CI, 7.2-7.6) and 1.3% (95% CI, 1.2-1.5) for cranial and spinal surgery, respectively. Approximately 1 in 4 patients had additional procedures following non-elective cranial surgery (24%; 95% CI, 23.6-24.3). Outcomes were highly variable across different subspecialty areas. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence rates of neurosurgical procedures are low within England, and neurosurgical units have a high volume of non-surgical admissions. In-hospital mortality rates after elective neurosurgery are low but there may be opportunities for quality improvement programmes to improve outcomes for non-elective surgery as well as ensuring equitable access to treatment.

The association between guideline adherence, age and overall survival among women with non-metastatic breast cancer: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Conformity with treatment guidelines should benefit patients. Studies have reported variation in adherence to breast cancer (BC) guidelines, particularly among older women. This study investigated (i) whether adherence to treatment guideline recommendations for women with non-metastatic BC improves overall survival (OS), (ii) whether that relationship varies by age. METHODOLOGY: MEDLINE and EMBASE were systematically searched for studies on guideline adherence and OS in women with non-metastatic BC, published after January 2000, which examined recommendations on breast surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy or endocrine therapy. Study results were summarised using narrative synthesis. RESULTS: Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria. The recommendations for each treatment covered were similar, but studies differed in their definitions of adherence. 5-year OS rates among patients having compliant treatment ranged from 91.3% to 93.2%, while rates among patients having non-compliant treatment ranged from 75.9% to 83.4%. Six studies reported an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for non-compliant treatment compared with compliant treatment; all concluded OS was worse among patients whose overall treatment was non-compliant (aHR range: 1.52 [1.30-1.82] to 2.57 [1.96-3.37]), but adjustment for potential confounders was limited. Worse adherence among older women was reported in 12/16 studies, but they did not provide consistent evidence on whether OS was associated with treatment adherence and age. CONCLUSIONS: Individual studies reported that better adherence to guidelines improved OS among women with non-metastatic BC, but the evidence base has weaknesses including inconsistent definitions of adherence. More precise and consistent research designs, including the evaluation of barriers to adherence across the spectrum of healthcare practice, are required to fully understand guideline compliance, as well as the relationship between compliance and OS following a BC diagnosis.