Exploiting epidemiological data to understand the epidemiology and factors that influence COVID-19 pandemic in Libya.

There were only 75 confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported in Libya by the National Center for Disease Control during the first two months following the first confirmed case on 24 March 2020. However, there was dramatic increase in positive cases from June to now; as of 19 November 2020, approximately 357940 samples have been tested by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, and the results have revealed a total number of 76808 confirmed cases, 47587 recovered cases and 1068 deaths. The case fatality ratio was estimated to be 1.40%, and the mortality rate was estimated to be 15.90 in 100000 people. The epidemiological situation markedly changed from mid-July to the beginning of August, and the country proceeded to the cluster phase. COVID-19 has spread in almost all Libyan cities, and this reflects the high transmission rate of the virus at the regional level with the highest positivity rates, at an average of 14.54%. Apparently, there is an underestimation of the actual number of COVID-19 cases due to the low testing capacity. Consequently, the Libyan health authority needs to initiate a large-scale case-screening process and enforce testing capacities and contact testing within the time frame, which is not an easy task. Advisably, the Libyan health authority should improve the public health capacities and conduct strict hygienic measures among the societies and vaccinate as many people against COVID-19 to minimize both the case fatality ratio and socio-economic impacts of the pandemic in Libya.

Seroprevalence and molecular detection of Newcastle disease virus in backyard chickens in Tripoli, Libya.

Background: Newcastle disease (ND) is a viral disease that affecting many avian species all over the world. Aim: ND has been successfully controlled by the vaccination of commercial poultry in Libya. However, there was a lack of information about the situation of ND in backyard chickens. Therefore, this study determined the prevalence of ND in backyard chickens in different locations of Tripoli. Methods: A total number of 280 cloacal swabs (190 in summer and 90 in winter) and 412 sera were collected from non-vaccinated backyard chicken flocks in different geographical locations within the area of Tripoli namely Qasr Ben Ghashier, Al-Sawani, Souq Al-Gomaa, Tajourah, Ein Zara, and Janzour. Cloacal swabs and sera were tested by real time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and ELISA, respectively. Results: The prevalence of ND virus (NDV) infection in backyard chickens in different locations of Tripoli during summer and winter was 45% using real-time reverse transcription-PCR. Except in Qasr Ben Ghashier, the prevalence in summer season was significantly higher than in winter (X2 = 46.13, p ≥ 0.00001). ELISA test revealed 218 positive out of 412 tested samples with total prevalence of 53% across the city of Tripoli in all regions. Obviously, Qasr Ben Ghashier had significantly (X2 = 74.09, p ≥ 0.00001) the highest prevalence (82%) of NDV specific antibodies followed by Tajourah (68%). Conclusion: This study demonstrated the situation of ND in backyard chicken highlighting the necessity of a comprehensive vaccination plan for backyard chickens.

Reconstructing the evolutionary history of pandemic foot-and-mouth disease viruses: the impact of recombination within the emerging O/ME-SA/Ind-2001 lineage.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock affecting animal production and trade throughout Asia and Africa. Understanding FMD virus (FMDV) global movements and evolution can help to reconstruct the disease spread between endemic regions and predict the risks of incursion into FMD-free countries. Global expansion of a single FMDV lineage is rare but can result in severe economic consequences. Using extensive sequence data we have reconstructed the global space-time transmission history of the O/ME-SA/Ind-2001 lineage (which normally circulates in the Indian sub-continent) providing evidence of at least 15 independent escapes during 2013-2017 that have led to outbreaks in North Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, the Far East and the FMD-free islands of Mauritius. We demonstrated that sequence heterogeneity of this emerging FMDV lineage is accommodated within two co-evolving divergent sublineages and that recombination by exchange of capsid-coding sequences can impact upon the reconstructed evolutionary histories. Thus, we recommend that only sequences encoding the outer capsid proteins should be used for broad-scale phylogeographical reconstruction. These data emphasise the importance of the Indian subcontinent as a source of FMDV that can spread across large distances and illustrates the impact of FMDV genome recombination on FMDV molecular epidemiology.

An epidemological study on Peste des petits ruminants in Tripoli Region, Lybia.

A cross­sectional study was conducted in Libya in 7 areas of Tripoli to determine the seroprevalence of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Virus (PPRV) in small ruminants (sheep and goats) between June and August 2013, and to identify the potential risk factors associated with the infection. The study involved 10% of small ruminant herds with ≥50 animals in the Tripoli region. They were selected randomly (15 herds), and 35 to 58 samples, depending on its size, were collected from each selected herd. Seven­hundred and twenty­one serum samples from unvaccinated animals (601 of sheep and 120 of goats) were collected and then tested using cELISA commercial kit in the National Center of Animal Health Laboratory in Tripoli, Libya. The overall seroprevalence was 46.7% [(sheep 44.3% (266/601) and goats 59.2% (71/120)]. Mean within­herd prevalence was 48.5% (95% CI: 32.1% ­ 64.8%), and the herd prevalence was 93.3% (14/15). Various risk factors at the animal and herd levels were analysed by multivariable logistic regression model (forward stepwise). The results identified breed, source of animal, and region as significant risk factors (p< 0.05). As for the source of new animal to the farm, PPRV seroprevalence was highest in illegally imported animals (90.9%), followed by the seroprevalence in animal legitimately acquired (55.8%), and by the seroprevalence in animals belonging to the same herd (4.7%). The seroprevalence among breeds was 69.5% (228÷328) in illegally imported animals, whereas 27.7% (109÷393) was found to be in local breed. Seroprevalence in the areas considered in this study was higher (66.2%) in Al­Mashroa area followed by Ein­zara (57.8%), Arada (50%), Ben­Own (47%), AL­Naem (37.5), Ber­Alalem (24.5) and in Tajora (0%). The results indicated that PPRV virus was actively circulating in Tripoli regions and that the illegal importing of animals was the main source of spreading PPR in Tripoli regions, showing that better efforts should be made to raise public awareness with respect to biosecurity.