ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Hospital-acquired bacterial infections are associated with high morbidity and mortality rates in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). This study aimed to develop and validate predictive models for the risk of hospital-acquired bacterial infections in patients with SLE. METHODS: A historical cohort study was designed for development, and another bidirectional cohort study was used for external validation. The risk of bacterial infection was assessed upon admission and after 5 days of hospitalization. Predictor selection employed the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) techniques. Multiple imputations were used to handle missing data. Logistic regression models were applied, and the properties of discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis were evaluated. RESULTS: The development cohort comprised 1686 patients and 237 events (14.1%) from 3 tertiary hospitals. The external validation cohort included 531 patients and 84 infection outcomes (15.8%) from 10 hospital centers in Colombia (secondary and tertiary level). The models applied at admission and after 120 hours of stay exhibited good discrimination (AUC > 0.74). External validation demonstrated good performance among patients from the same tertiary institutions where the models were developed. However, geographic validation at other institutions has been suboptimal. CONCLUSIONS: Two predictive models for nosocomial bacterial infections in patients with SLE are presented. All infection prevention recommendations should be maximized in patients at moderate/high risk. Further validation studies in diverse contexts, as well as clinical impact trials, are necessary before potential applications in research and clinical care.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Data on IgG4-related disease (IgG4-RD) come almost exclusively from cohorts from Asia, Europe, and North America. We conducted this study to describe the clinical presentation, phenotype distribution, and association with sex, ethnicity, and serological markers in a large cohort of Latin American patients with IgG4-RD. METHODS: We performed a multicenter medical records review study including 184 Latin American IgG4-RD patients. We assigned patients to clinical phenotypes: group 1 (pancreato-hepato-biliary), group 2 (retroperitoneal/aortic), group 3 (head and neck-limited), group 4 (Mikulicz/systemic), and group 5 (undefined). We focused the analysis on how sex, ethnicity, and clinical phenotype may influence the clinical and serological presentation. RESULTS: The mean age was 50.8 ± 15 years. Men and women were equally affected (52.2% vs 48.8%). Fifty-four patients (29.3%) were assigned to group 1, 21 (11.4%) to group 2, 57 (30.9%) to group 3, 32 (17.4%) to group 4, and 20 (10.8%) to group 5. Male sex was associated with biliary tract (odds ratio [OR], 3.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.36-8.26), kidney (OR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.28-9.25), and retroperitoneal involvement (OR, 5.3; 95% CI, 1.45-20). Amerindian patients presented more frequently with atopy history and gallbladder involvement. Group 3 had a female predominance. CONCLUSIONS: Latin American patients with IgG4-RD were younger, and men and women were equally affected compared with White and Asian cohorts. They belonged more commonly to group 1 and group 3. Retroperitoneal and aortic involvement was infrequent. Clinical and serological features differed according to sex, ethnicity, and clinical phenotype.