On hierarchical competition through reduction of individual growth.

We consider a population organised hierarchically with respect to size in such a way that the growth rate of each individual depends only on the presence of larger individuals. As a concrete example one might think of a forest, in which the incidence of light on a tree (and hence how fast it grows) is affected by shading by taller trees. The classic formulation of a model for such a size-structured population employs a first order quasi-linear partial differential equation equipped with a non-local boundary condition. However, the model can also be formulated as a delay equation, more specifically a scalar renewal equation, for the population birth rate. After discussing the well-posedness of the delay formulation, we analyse how many stationary birth rates the equation can have in terms of the functional parameters of the model. In particular we show that, under reasonable and rather general assumptions, only one stationary birth rate can exist besides the trivial one (associated to the state in which there are no individuals and the population birth rate is zero). We give conditions for this non-trivial stationary birth rate to exist and analyse its stability using the principle of linearised stability for delay equations. Finally, we relate the results to the alternative, partial differential equation formulation of the model.

A systematic procedure for incorporating separable static heterogeneity into compartmental epidemic models.

In this paper, we show how to modify a compartmental epidemic model, without changing the dimension, such that separable static heterogeneity is taken into account. The derivation is based on the Kermack-McKendrick renewal equation.

One Dimensional Reduction of a Renewal Equation for a Measure-Valued Function of Time Describing Population Dynamics.

Despite their relevance in mathematical biology, there are, as yet, few general results about the asymptotic behaviour of measure valued solutions of renewal equations on the basis of assumptions concerning the kernel. We characterise, via their kernels, a class of renewal equations whose measure-valued solution can be expressed in terms of the solution of a scalar renewal equation. The asymptotic behaviour of the solution of the scalar renewal equation, is studied via Feller's classical renewal theorem and, from it, the large time behaviour of the solution of the original renewal equation is derived.

The discrete-time Kermack-McKendrick model: A versatile and computationally attractive framework for modeling epidemics.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to numerous mathematical models for the spread of infection, the majority of which are large compartmental models that implicitly constrain the generation-time distribution. On the other hand, the continuous-time Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model of 1927 (KM27) allows an arbitrary generation-time distribution, but it suffers from the drawback that its numerical implementation is rather cumbersome. Here, we introduce a discrete-time version of KM27 that is as general and flexible, and yet is very easy to implement computationally. Thus, it promises to become a very powerful tool for exploring control scenarios for specific infectious diseases such as COVID-19. To demonstrate this potential, we investigate numerically how the incidence-peak size depends on model ingredients. We find that, with the same reproduction number and the same initial growth rate, compartmental models systematically predict lower peak sizes than models in which the latent and the infectious period have fixed duration.

Correction to: Finite dimensional state representation of physiologically structured populations.

In the original publication of the article, the Subsection 2.1.2 was published incorrectly.

Should a viral genome stay in the host cell or leave? A quantitative dynamics study of how hepatitis C virus deals with this dilemma.

Virus proliferation involves gene replication inside infected cells and transmission to new target cells. Once positive-strand RNA virus has infected a cell, the viral genome serves as a template for copying ("stay-strategy") or is packaged into a progeny virion that will be released extracellularly ("leave-strategy"). The balance between genome replication and virion release determines virus production and transmission efficacy. The ensuing trade-off has not yet been well characterized. In this study, we use hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a model system to study the balance of the two strategies. Combining viral infection cell culture assays with mathematical modeling, we characterize the dynamics of two different HCV strains (JFH-1, a clinical isolate, and Jc1-n, a laboratory strain), which have different viral release characteristics. We found that 0.63% and 1.70% of JFH-1 and Jc1-n intracellular viral RNAs, respectively, are used for producing and releasing progeny virions. Analysis of the Malthusian parameter of the HCV genome (i.e., initial proliferation rate) and the number of de novo infections (i.e., initial transmissibility) suggests that the leave-strategy provides a higher level of initial transmission for Jc1-n, whereas, in contrast, the stay-strategy provides a higher initial proliferation rate for JFH-1. Thus, theoretical-experimental analysis of viral dynamics enables us to better understand the proliferation strategies of viruses, which contributes to the efficient control of virus transmission. Ours is the first study to analyze the stay-leave trade-off during the viral life cycle and the significance of the replication-release switching mechanism for viral proliferation.

The winner takes it all: how semelparous insects can become periodical.

The aim of this short note is to give a simple explanation for the remarkable periodicity of Magicicada species, which appear as adults only every 13 or 17 years, depending on the region. We show that a combination of two types of density dependence may drive, for large classes of initial conditions, all but 1 year class to extinction. Competition for food leads to negative density dependence in the form of a uniform (i.e., affecting all age classes in the same way) reduction of the survival probability. Satiation of predators leads to positive density dependence within the reproducing age class. The analysis focuses on the full life cycle map derived by iteration of a semelparous Leslie matrix.

Finite dimensional state representation of physiologically structured populations.

In a physiologically structured population model (PSPM) individuals are characterised by continuous variables, like age and size, collectively called their i-state. The world in which these individuals live is characterised by another set of variables, collectively called the environmental condition. The model consists of submodels for (i) the dynamics of the i-state, e.g. growth and maturation, (ii) survival, (iii) reproduction, with the relevant rates described as a function of (i-state, environmental condition), (iv) functions of (i-state, environmental condition), like biomass or feeding rate, that integrated over the i-state distribution together produce the output of the population model. When the environmental condition is treated as a given function of time (input), the population model becomes linear in the state. Density dependence and interaction with other populations is captured by feedback via a shared environment, i.e., by letting the environmental condition be influenced by the populations' outputs. This yields a systematic methodology for formulating community models by coupling nonlinear input-output relations defined by state-linear population models. For some combinations of submodels an (infinite dimensional) PSPM can without loss of relevant information be replaced by a finite dimensional ODE. We then call the model ODE-reducible. The present paper provides (a) a test for checking whether a PSPM is ODE reducible, and (b) a catalogue of all possible ODE-reducible models given certain restrictions, to wit: (i) the i-state dynamics is deterministic, (ii) the i-state space is one-dimensional, (iii) the birth rate can be written as a finite sum of environment-dependent distributions over the birth states weighted by environment independent 'population outputs'. So under these restrictions our conditions for ODE-reducibility are not only sufficient but in fact necessary. Restriction (iii) has the desirable effect that it guarantees that the population trajectories are after a while fully determined by the solution of the ODE so that the latter gives a complete picture of the dynamics of the population and not just of its outputs.

On models of physiologically structured populations and their reduction to ordinary differential equations.

Considering the environmental condition as a given function of time, we formulate a physiologically structured population model as a linear non-autonomous integral equation for the, in general distributed, population level birth rate. We take this renewal equation as the starting point for addressing the following question: When does a physiologically structured population model allow reduction to an ODE without loss of relevant information? We formulate a precise condition for models in which the state of individuals changes deterministically, that is, according to an ODE. Specialising to a one-dimensional individual state, like size, we present various sufficient conditions in terms of individual growth-, death-, and reproduction rates, giving special attention to cell fission into two equal parts and to the catalogue derived in an other paper of ours (submitted). We also show how to derive an ODE system describing the asymptotic large time behaviour of the population when growth, death and reproduction all depend on the environmental condition through a common factor (so for a very strict form of physiological age).

Karl-Peter Hadeler: His legacy in mathematical biology.

Karl-Peter Hadeler is a first-generation pioneer in mathematical biology. His work inspired the contributions to this special issue. In this preface we give a brief biographical sketch of K.P. Hadelers scientific life and highlight his impact to the field.

Dangerous connections: on binding site models of infectious disease dynamics.

We formulate models for the spread of infection on networks that are amenable to analysis in the large population limit. We distinguish three different levels: (1) binding sites, (2) individuals, and (3) the population. In the tradition of physiologically structured population models, the formulation starts on the individual level. Influences from the 'outside world' on an individual are captured by environmental variables. These environmental variables are population level quantities. A key characteristic of the network models is that individuals can be decomposed into a number of conditionally independent components: each individual has a fixed number of 'binding sites' for partners. The Markov chain dynamics of binding sites are described by only a few equations. In particular, individual-level probabilities are obtained from binding-site-level probabilities by combinatorics while population-level quantities are obtained by averaging over individuals in the population. Thus we are able to characterize population-level epidemiological quantities, such as [Formula: see text], r, the final size, and the endemic equilibrium, in terms of the corresponding variables.

Multiple coexistence equilibria in a two parasitoid-one host model.

Briggs et al. (1993) introduced a host-parasitoid model for the dynamics of a system with two parasitoids that attack different juvenile stages of a common host. Their main result was that coexistence of the parasitoids is only possible when there is sufficient variability in the maturation delays of the host juvenile stages. Here, we analyze the phenomenon of coexistence in that model more deeply. We show that with some distribution families for the maturation delays, the coexistence equilibrium is unique, while with other distributions multiple coexistence equilibria can be found. In particular, we find that stable coexistence does not necessarily require mutual invasibility.

The many guises of R0 (a didactic note).

The basic reproduction number R0 is, by definition, the expected life time number of offspring of a newborn individual. An operationalization entails a specification of what events are considered as "reproduction" and what events are considered as "transitions from one individual-state to another". Thus, an element of choice can creep into the concretization of the definition. The aim of this note is to clearly expose this possibility by way of examples from both population dynamics and infectious disease epidemiology.

On the characteristic equation λ = α1 + (α2 + α3λ)e(-λ) and its use in the context of a cell population model.

In this paper we characterize the stability boundary in the (α1, α2)-plane, for fixed α3 with −1 < α3 < +1, for the characteristic equation from the title. Subsequently we describe a nonlinear cell population model involving quiescence and show that this characteristic equation governs the (in)stability of the nontrivial steady state. By relating the parameters of the cell model to the αi we are able to derive some biological conclusions.

SI infection on a dynamic partnership network: characterization of R0.

We model the spread of an SI (Susceptible → Infectious) sexually transmitted infection on a dynamic homosexual network. The network consists of individuals with a dynamically varying number of partners. There is demographic turnover due to individuals entering the population at a constant rate and leaving the population after an exponentially distributed time. Infection is transmitted in partnerships between susceptible and infected individuals. We assume that the state of an individual in this structured population is specified by its disease status and its numbers of susceptible and infected partners. Therefore the state of an individual changes through partnership dynamics and transmission of infection. We assume that an individual has precisely n 'sites' at which a partner can be bound, all of which behave independently from one another as far as forming and dissolving partnerships are concerned. The population level dynamics of partnerships and disease transmission can be described by a set of (n +1)(n +2) differential equations. We characterize the basic reproduction ratio R0 using the next-generation-matrix method. Using the interpretation of R0 we show that we can reduce the number of states-at-infection n to only considering three states-at-infection. This means that the stability analysis of the disease-free steady state of an (n +1)(n +2)-dimensional system is reduced to determining the dominant eigenvalue of a 3 × 3 matrix. We then show that a further reduction to a 2 × 2 matrix is possible where all matrix entries are in explicit form. This implies that an explicit expression for R0 can be found for every value of n.

An extension of the classification of evolutionarily singular strategies in Adaptive Dynamics.

The existing classification of evolutionarily singular strategies in Adaptive Dynamics (Geritz et al. in Evol Ecol 12:35-57, 1998; Metz et al. in Stochastic and spatial structures of dynamical systems, pp 183-231, 1996) assumes an invasion exponent that is differentiable twice as a function of both the resident and the invading trait. Motivated by nested models for studying the evolution of infectious diseases, we consider an extended framework in which the selection gradient exists (so the definition of evolutionary singularities extends verbatim), but where the invasion fitness may lack the smoothness necessary for the classification à la Geritz et al. We derive the classification of singular strategies with respect to convergence stability and invadability and determine the condition for the existence of nearby dimorphisms. In addition to ESSs and invadable strategies, we observe what we call one-sided ESSs: singular strategies that are invadable from one side of the singularity but uninvadable from the other. Studying the regions of mutual invadability in the vicinity of a one-sided ESS, we discover that two isoclines spring in a tangent manner from the singular point at the diagonal of the mutual invadability plot. The way in which the isoclines unfold determines whether these one-sided ESSs act as ESSs or as branching points. We present a computable condition that allows one to determine the relative position of the isoclines (and thus dimorphic dynamics) from the dimorphic as well as from the monomorphic invasion exponent and illustrate our findings with an example from evolutionary epidemiology.