The origins of unpredictability in life outcome prediction tasks.

Why are some life outcomes difficult to predict? We investigated this question through in-depth qualitative interviews with 40 families sampled from a multidecade longitudinal study. Our sampling and interviewing process was informed by the earlier efforts of hundreds of researchers to predict life outcomes for participants in this study. The qualitative evidence we uncovered in these interviews combined with a mathematical decomposition of prediction error led us to create a conceptual framework. Our specific evidence and our more general framework suggest that unpredictability should be expected in many life outcome prediction tasks, even in the presence of complex algorithms and large datasets. Our work provides a foundation for future empirical and theoretical work on unpredictability in human lives.

Direct and Indirect Longitudinal Associations of Mother and Father Engagement in Middle Childhood on Adolescent Externalizing and Internalizing Behaviors.

Parent engagement is an important aspect of parenting during childhood. However, little is known about the unique longitudinal associations of mother and father engagement with adolescents' externalizing and internalizing problem behaviors. This study uses Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study data to examine the potential direct and indirect associations of parent engagement at age 9 on adolescent externalizing and internalizing behaviors at age 15. The analytic sample size is 1349, and at age 9, the mean age of children was 9.40 years (SD = 0.37). Forty-eight percent of children were female and 68% of them were from the married families. The results show that while controlling for mother engagement, higher father engagement at age 9 was directly associated with fewer adolescent internalizing behaviors, only among adolescent boys and in married families. In addition, among adolescent boys, father engagement had an indirect association with externalizing behaviors through father-child closeness. Mother engagement, however, is only found to have an indirect association with adolescents' externalizing and internalizing behaviors through maternal hostility (while controlling for father engagement). The results for mother engagement held for boys and in married families only. The findings indicate that both mother and father engagement during childhood is important and helpful to prevent adolescent problem behaviors directly or indirectly via parent-child relationship.

Re-thinking Stepfathers' Contributions: Fathers, Stepfathers, and Child Wellbeing.

Using data from a contemporary cohort of children, we revisit the question of whether children benefit from being close to and engaging in activities with a stepfather. We deploy the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a birth cohort study of nearly 5000 children born in US cities in 1998-2000, with a large oversample of nonmarital births. We explore the relationships between stepfathers' closeness and active engagement and youth's internalizing and externalizing behaviors and school connectedness at ages 9 and 15 for between 550 and 740 children (depending on the wave) with stepfathers. We find that the emotional tenor of the relationship and level of active engagement between youth and their stepfathers are associated with reduced internalizing behaviors and higher school connectedness. Our findings suggest that stepfathers' roles seem to have evolved in ways that are more beneficial to their adolescent stepchildren than was previously the case.

Severe Housing Insecurity during Pregnancy: Association with Adverse Birth and Infant Outcomes.

Introduction: Housing insecurity is increasingly commonplace among disadvantaged women and children. We measured the individual- and population-level impact of severe housing insecurity during pregnancy on adverse birth and infant outcomes. Methods: We analyzed data from 3428 mother-infant dyads enrolled in the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a prospective cohort study representing births in 20 large U.S. cities from 1998 to 2000. Severe housing insecurity was defined as threatened eviction or homelessness during pregnancy. Outcomes included low birth weight and/or preterm birth, admission to a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) or stepdown facility, extended hospitalization after delivery, and infant health and temperament. We estimated exposure-outcome associations with risk ratios adjusted for pre-pregnancy maternal sociodemographic and heath factors and calculated a population attributable fraction (PAF) of outcomes attributable to severe housing insecurity. Results: We found statistically significant associations between severe housing insecurity during pregnancy and low birth weight and/or preterm birth (risk ratio (RR] 1.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28, 2.32), NICU or stepdown stay (RR 1.64, CI 1.17, 2.31), and extended hospitalization (RR 1.66, CI 1.28, 2.16). Associations between housing insecurity and infant fair or poor health (RR 2.62, CI 0.91, 7.48) and poor temperament (RR 1.52, CI 0.98, 2.34) were not statistically significant. PAF estimates ranged from 0.9-2.7%, suggesting that up to three percent of adverse birth and infant outcomes could be avoided by eliminating severe housing insecurity among low-income, pregnant women in US cities. Conclusions: Results suggest that housing insecurity during pregnancy shapes neonatal and infant health in disadvantaged urban families.

Eviction in early childhood and neighborhood poverty, food security, and obesity in later childhood and adolescence: Evidence from a longitudinal birth cohort.

Eviction affects a substantial share of U.S. children, but its effects on child health are largely unknown. Our objectives were to examine how eviction relates to 1) children's health and sociodemographic characteristics at birth, 2) neighborhood poverty and food security at age 5, and 3) obesity in later childhood and adolescence. We analyzed data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a longitudinal cohort of children born in 20 large U.S. cities. Children who lived in rental housing with known eviction histories and measured outcomes were included. We compared maternal and infant health and sociodemographic characteristics at the time of the child's birth. We then characterized the associations between eviction and neighborhood poverty and food security at age 5 and obesity at ages 5, 9, and 15 using log binomial regression with inverse probability of treatment and censoring weights. Of the 2556 children included in objective 1, 164 (6%) experienced eviction before age 5. Children who experienced eviction had lower household income and maternal education and were more likely to be born to mothers who were unmarried, smoked during pregnancy, and had mental health problems. Evicted and non-evicted children were equally likely to experience high neighborhood poverty at age 5 (prevalence ratio (PR) = 1.03, 95% CI 0.82, 1.29) but had an increased prevalence of low food security (PR = 2.16, 95% CI 1.46, 3.19). Obesity prevalence did not differ at age 5 (PR = 1.01; 95% CI 0.58, 1.75), 9 (PR = 1.08; 95% CI 0.715, 1.55); or 15 (PR = 1.05; 95% CI 0.51, 2.18). In conclusion, children who went on to experience eviction showed signs of poor health and socioeconomic disadvantage already at birth. Eviction in early childhood was not associated with children's likelihood of neighborhood poverty, suggesting that eviction may not qualitatively change children's neighborhood conditions in this disadvantaged sample. Though we saw evidence supporting an association with low child food security at age 5, we did not find eviction to be associated with obesity in later childhood and adolescence.

Does Time with Dad in Childhood Pay Off in Adolescence?

OBJECTIVE: We aim to understand the association between father involvement in middle childhood and adolescent behaviors and whether the relationship differs by father residence. BACKGROUND: Internalizing and externalizing behaviors in adolescence can trigger a cascade of negative outcomes later in life, including lower educational attainment, criminal justice involvement, and future psychological distress. Evidence, largely focusing on nonresidential fathers and older cohort, suggests that father involvement-particularly closeness and engagement-may reduce adolescents' internalizing and externalizing behaviors. METHOD: We use data six waves of the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a birth cohort survey representative of births in large U.S. cities between 1998 and 2000, to estimate OLS regression models examining (a) whether father involvement in middle childhood is associated with fewer problem behaviors at Age 15, (b) if the salience of father involvement differs depending on whether the father was present in the home (i.e., was married to or living with his child's mother) in middle childhood, and (c) whether father involvement matters differently based on the child's sex. RESULTS: We find protective associations between father involvement and adolescent behavioural outcomes that persist even among children who were not living with their fathers. In models stratified by the child's sex, father involvement matters for both boys and girls. In all models, father presence alone, apart from active involvement, is not significantly associated with behavioral outcomes. CONCLUSION: Father involvement protects against negative adolescent behaviors even among children with nonresidential fathers and for both boys and girls. IMPLICATIONS: These results suggest that policies that promote greater father involvement and father-child bonds, rather than other options such as promoting marriage, may be more effective in reducing behavioral problems among adolescents.

Taking Care of Mine: Can Child Support Become a Family-Building Institution?

U.S. children are more likely to live apart from a biological parent than at any time in history. Although the Child Support Enforcement system has tremendous reach, its policies have not kept pace with significant economic, demographic, and cultural changes. Narrative analysis of in-depth interviews with 429 low-income noncustodial fathers suggests that the system faces a crisis of legitimacy. Visualization of language used to describe all forms child support show that the formal system is considered punitive and to lead to a loss of power and autonomy. Further, it is not associated with coparenting or the father-child bond-themes closely associated with informal and in-kind support. Rather than stoking men's identities as providers, the system becomes "just another bill to pay." Orders must be sustainable, all fathers should have coparenting agreements, and alternative forms of support should count toward fathers' obligations. Recovery of government welfare costs should be eliminated.

A Universal Child Allowance: A Plan to Reduce Poverty and Income Instability Among Children in the United States.

To reduce child poverty and income instability, and eliminate extreme poverty among families with children in the United States, we propose converting the Child Tax Credit and child tax exemption into a universal, monthly child allowance. Our proposal is based on principles we argue should undergird the design of such policies: universality, accessibility, adequate payment levels, and more generous support for young children. Whether benefits should decline with additional children to reflect economies of scale is a question policymakers should consider. Analyzing 2015 Current Population Survey data, we estimate our proposed child allowance would reduce child poverty by about 40 percent, deep child poverty by nearly half, and would effectively eliminate extreme child poverty. Annual net cost estimates range from $66 billion to $105 billion.

How Much In-Kind Support Do Low-Income Nonresident Fathers Provide? A Mixed-Method Analysis.

Past child support research has largely focused on cash payments made through the courts (formal support) or given directly to the mother (informal support), almost to the exclusion of a third type: non-cash goods (in-kind support). Drawing on repeated, semistructured interviews with nearly 400 low-income noncustodial fathers, the authors found that in-kind support constitutes about one quarter of total support. Children in receipt of some in-kind support receive, on average, $60 per month worth of goods. Multilevel regression analyses demonstrated that children who are younger and have more hours of visitation, as well as those whose father has a high school education and no current substance abuse problem, receive in-kind support of greater value. Yet children whose fathers lack stable employment, or are Black, receive a greater proportion of their total support in kind. A subsequent qualitative analysis revealed that fathers' logic for providing in-kind support is primarily relational, and not financial.

The compositional and institutional sources of union dissolution for married and unmarried parents in the United States.

Unmarried parents have less stable unions than married parents, but there is considerable debate over the sources of this instability. Unmarried parents may be more likely than married parents to end their unions because of compositional differences, such as more disadvantaged personal and relationship characteristics, or because they lack the normative and institutional supports of marriage, thus rendering their relationships more sensitive to disadvantage. In this article, we evaluate these two sources of union instability among married, cohabiting, and dating parents following the birth of a shared child, using five waves of longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study. Using discrete-time event history models, we find that demographic, economic, and relationship differences explain more than two-thirds of the increased risk of dissolution for unmarried parents relative to married parents. We also find that differential responses to economic or relationship disadvantage do not explain why unmarried parents are more likely to end their unions than married parents.

Moving teenagers out of high-risk neighborhoods: how girls fare better than boys.

Moving to Opportunity (MTO) offered public housing residents the opportunity to move to low-poverty neighborhoods. Several years later, boys in the experimental group fared no better on measures of risk behavior than their control group counterparts, whereas girls in the experimental group engaged in lower-risk behavior than control group girls. The authors explore these differences by analyzing data from in-depth interviews conducted with 86 teens in Baltimore and Chicago. They find that daily routines, fitting in with neighborhood norms, neighborhood navigation strategies, interactions with peers, friendship making, and distance from father figures may contribute to how girls who moved via MTO benefited more than boys.

Parenting as a "package deal": relationships, fertility, and nonresident father involvement among unmarried parents.

Fatherhood has traditionally been viewed as part of a "package deal" in which a father's relationship with his child is contingent on his relationship with the mother. We evaluate the accuracy of this hypothesis in light of the high rates of multiple-partner fertility among unmarried parents using the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a recent longitudinal survey of nonmarital births in large cities. We examine whether unmarried mothers' and fathers' subsequent relationship and parenting transitions are associated with declines in fathers' contact with their nonresident biological children. We find that father involvement drops sharply after relationships between unmarried parents end. Mothers 'transitions into new romantic partnerships and new parenting roles are associated with larger declines in involvement than fathers' transitions. Declines in fathers' involvement following a mother's relationship or parenting transition are largest when children are young. We discuss the implications of our results for the well-being of nonmarital children and the quality of nonmarital relationships faced with high levels of relationship instability and multiple-partner fertility.

Claiming Fatherhood: Race and the Dynamics of Paternal Involvement among Unmarried Men.

In 1965, Daniel Patrick Moynihan argued that the black family was nearing "complete breakdown" due to high rates of out-of-wedlock childbearing. In subsequent decades, nonmarital childbearing rose dramatically for all racial groups and unwed fathers were often portrayed as being absent from their children's lives. The authors examine contemporary nonmarital father involvement using quantitative evidence from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study and qualitative evidence from in-depth interviews with 150 unmarried fathers. The authors find that father involvement drops sharply after parents' relationships end, especially when they enter subsequent relationships and have children with new partners. These declines are less dramatic for African American fathers, suggesting that fathers' roles outside of conjugal relationships may be more strongly institutionalized in the black community. The challenges Moynihan described among black families some forty years ago now extend to a significant minority of all American children.

Why don't they just get married? Barriers to marriage among the disadvantaged.

Kathryn Edin and Joanna Reed review recent research on social and economic barriers to marriage among the poor and discuss the efficacy of efforts by federal and state policymakers to promote marriage among poor unmarried couples, especially those with children, in light of these findings. Social barriers include marital aspirations and expectations, norms about childbearing, financial standards for marriage, the quality of relationships, an aversion to divorce, and children by other partners. Edin and Reed note that disadvantaged men and women highly value marriage but believe they are currently unable to meet the high standards of relationship quality and financial stability they believe are necessary to sustain a marriage and avoid divorce. Despite their regard for marriage, however, poor Americans do not view it as a prerequisite for childbearing, and it is typical for either or both parents in an unmarried-couple family to have a child by another partner. Economic barriers include men's low earnings, women's earnings, and the marriage tax. In view of these findings, Edin and Reed argue that public campaigns to convince poor Americans of the value of marriage are preaching to the choir. Instead, campaigns should emphasize the benefits for children of living with both biological parents and stress the harmful effects for children of high-conflict parental relationships. Programs to improve relationship quality must address head-on the significant problems many couple face. Because disadvantaged men and women view some degree of financial stability as a prerequisite for marriage, policymakers must address the instability and low pay of the jobs they typically hold as well as devise ways to promote homeownership and other asset development to encourage marriage. Moreover, programs need to help couples meet the challenges of parenting families where children are some combination of his, hers, and theirs. Encouraging more low-income couples to marry without giving them tools to help their marriages thrive may simply increase the divorce rate.