Future impacts of O3 on respiratory hospital admission in the UK from current emissions policies.

Exposure to ambient ozone (O3) O3 is associated with impacts on human health. O3 is a secondary pollutant whose concentrations are determined inter alia by emissions of precursors such as oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and thus future health burdens depend on policies relating to climate and air quality. While emission controls are expected to reduce levels of PM2.5 and NO2 and their associated mortality burdens, for secondary pollutants like O3 the picture is less clear. Detailed assessments are necessary to provide quantitative estimates of future impacts to support decision-makers. We simulate future O3 across the UK using a high spatial resolution atmospheric chemistry model with current UK and European policy projections for 2030, 2040 and 2050, and use UK regional population-weighting and latest recommendations on health impact assessment to quantify respiratory emergency hospital admissions associated with short-term effects of O3. We estimate 60,488 admissions in 2018, increasing by 4.2%, 4.5% and 4.6% by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively (assuming a fixed population). Including future population growth, estimated emergency respiratory hospital admissions are 8.3%, 10.3% and 11.7% higher by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively. Increasing O3 concentrations in future are driven by reduced nitric oxide (NO) in urban areas due to reduced emissions, with increases in O3 mainly occurring in areas with lowest O3 concentrations currently. Meteorology influences episodes of O3 on a day-to-day basis, although a sensitivity study indicates that annual totals of hospital admissions are only slightly impacted by meteorological year. While reducing emissions results in overall benefits to population health (through reduced mortality due to long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2), due to the complex chemistry, as NO emissions reduce there are associated local increases in O3 close to population centres that may increase harms to health.

Impacts of emissions policies on future UK mortality burdens associated with air pollution.

Air pollution is the greatest environmental risk to public health. Future air pollution concentrations are primarily determined by precursor emissions, which are driven by environmental policies relating to climate and air pollution. Detailed health impact assessments (HIA) are necessary to provide quantitative estimates of the impacts of future air pollution to support decision-makers developing environmental policy and targets. In this study we use high spatial resolution atmospheric chemistry modelling to simulate future air pollution concentrations across the UK for 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on current UK and European policy projections. We combine UK regional population-weighted concentrations with the latest epidemiological relationships to quantify mortality associated with changes in PM2.5 and NO2 air pollution. Our HIA suggests that by 2050, population-weighted exposure to PM2.5 will reduce by 28% to 36%, and for NO2 by 35% to 49%, depending on region. The HIA shows that for present day (2018), annual mortality attributable to the effects of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 is in the range 26,287 - 42,442, and that mortality burdens in future will be substantially reduced, being lower by 31%, 35%, and 37% in 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively (relative to 2018) assuming no population changes. Including population projections (increases in all regions for 30+ years age group) slightly offsets these health benefits, resulting in reductions of 25%, 27%, and 26% in mortality burdens for 2030, 2040, 2050 respectively. Significant reductions in future mortality burdens are estimated and, importantly for public health, the majority of benefits are achieved early on in the future timeline simulated, though further efforts are likely needed to reduce impacts of air pollution to health.

A systematic review on solid fuel combustion exposure and respiratory health in adults in Europe, USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

Epidemiological studies performed in low- and middle-income countries have shown a positive association between solid fuel burning exposure and adverse health effects, including respiratory effects in adults. However, the evidence is less clear in other countries. We performed a systematic review of epidemiological studies conducted in Europe, North America (Canada and USA only), Australia and New Zealand on the association between outdoor and indoor exposure to solid fuel (biomass and coal) combustion and respiratory outcomes in adults. We identified 34 articles. The epidemiological evidence is still limited. Positive associations were found between indoor coal, wood and combined solid fuel combustion exposure and lung cancer risk, although based on a limited number of studies. A significant association was found between indoor solid fuel exposure and COPD risk. Inconsistent results were found considering indoor coal, wood and mixed solid fuel burning exposure and other respiratory outcomes (i.e. lower respiratory infections, upper respiratory infections and other upper respiratory tract diseases, asthma and respiratory symptoms). Inconsistent results were found considering the relationship between the exposure to outdoor wood burning exposure and overall respiratory mortality, asthma, COPD and respiratory symptoms in adults. The available epidemiological evidence between outdoor exposure to residential coal burning and respiratory outcomes suggests an increased risk of adverse respiratory effects. The studies considering the impact of the introduction of measures in order to reduce solid fuel burning on air quality and health showed an improvement in air quality resulting in a reduction of adverse respiratory effects. The identified epidemiological studies have several limitations. Additional and better conducted epidemiological studies are needed to establish whether exposure occurring indoors and outdoors to solid fuel combustion pollutants is associated with adverse respiratory outcomes in adults.

Exposure to indoor and outdoor air pollution from solid fuel combustion and respiratory outcomes in children in developed countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Epidemiological studies have shown a positive association between exposure to outdoor and indoor solid fuel combustion and adverse health effects. We reviewed the epidemiological evidence from Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand on the association between outdoor and indoor exposure to solid fuel combustion and respiratory outcomes in children. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis. Pooled relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using random-effects models. We identified 74 articles. Due to limited evidence on other exposures and outcomes, we performed meta-analyses on the association between indoor wood burning exposure and respiratory outcomes. The RR for the highest vs the lowest category of indoor wood exposure was 0.90 (95% CI 0.77-1.05) considering asthma as an outcome. The corresponding pooled RRs for lower respiratory infection (LRI) and upper respiratory infection (URI) were 1.11 (95% CI 0.88, 1.41) and 1.11 (95% CI 0.85, 1.44) respectively. No association was found between indoor wood burning exposure and risk of wheeze and cough. Inconsistent and limited results were found considering the relationship between indoor wood burning exposure and other respiratory outcomes (rhinitis and hay fever, influenza) as well as indoor coal burning exposure and respiratory outcomes in children. Results from epidemiological studies that evaluated the relationship between the exposure to outdoor emissions derived from indoor combustion of solid fuels are too limited to allow firm conclusions. We found no association between indoor wood burning exposure and risk of asthma. A slight, but not significant, increased risk of LRI and URI was identified, although the available evidence is limited. Epidemiological studies evaluating the relationship between indoor coal burning exposure and respiratory outcomes, as well as, studies considering exposure to outdoor solid fuels, are too limited to draw any firm conclusions.

Using epidemiology to estimate the impact and burden of exposure to air pollutants.

This paper focuses on the use of results of epidemiological studies to quantify the effects on health, particularly on mortality, of long-term exposure to air pollutants. It introduces health impact assessment methods, used to predict the benefits that can be expected from implementation of interventions to reduce emissions of pollutants. It also explains the estimation of annual mortality burdens attributable to current levels of pollution. Burden estimates are intended to meet the need to communicate the size of the effect of air pollution on public health to policy makers and others. The implications, for the interpretation of the estimates, of the assumptions and approximations underlying the methods are discussed. The paper starts with quantification based on results obtained from studies of the association of mortality risk with long-term average concentrations of particulate air pollution. It then tackles the additional methodological considerations that need to be addressed when also considering the mortality effects of other pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Finally, approaches that could be used to integrate morbidity and mortality endpoints in the same assessment are touched upon. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.