Projections of future meteorological drought and wet periods in the Amazon.

Future intensification of Amazon drought resulting from climate change may cause increased fire activity, tree mortality, and emissions of carbon to the atmosphere across large areas of Amazonia. To provide a basis for addressing these issues, we examine properties of recent and future meteorological droughts in the Amazon in 35 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that the CMIP5 climate models, as a group, simulate important properties of historical meteorological droughts in the Amazon. In addition, this group of models reproduces observed relationships between Amazon precipitation and regional sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans. Assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario for future drivers of climate change, the models project increases in the frequency and geographic extent of meteorological drought in the eastern Amazon, and the opposite in the West. For the region as a whole, the CMIP5 models suggest that the area affected by mild and severe meteorological drought will nearly double and triple, respectively, by 2100. Extremes of wetness are also projected to increase after 2040. Specifically, the frequency of periods of unusual wetness and the area affected by unusual wetness are projected to increase after 2040 in the Amazon as a whole, including in locations where annual mean precipitation is projected to decrease. Our analyses suggest that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of extreme events that have been shown to alter and degrade Amazonian forests.

Integrating stand and soil properties to understand foliar nutrient dynamics during forest succession following slash-and-burn agriculture in the Bolivian Amazon.

Secondary forests cover large areas of the tropics and play an important role in the global carbon cycle. During secondary forest succession, simultaneous changes occur among stand structural attributes, soil properties, and species composition. Most studies classify tree species into categories based on their regeneration requirements. We use a high-resolution secondary forest chronosequence to assign trees to a continuous gradient in species successional status assigned according to their distribution across the chronosequence. Species successional status, not stand age or differences in stand structure or soil properties, was found to be the best predictor of leaf trait variation. Foliar δ(13)C had a significant positive relationship with species successional status, indicating changes in foliar physiology related to growth and competitive strategy, but was not correlated with stand age, whereas soil δ(13)C dynamics were largely constrained by plant species composition. Foliar δ(15)N had a significant negative correlation with both stand age and species successional status, - most likely resulting from a large initial biomass-burning enrichment in soil (15)N and (13)C and not closure of the nitrogen cycle. Foliar %C was neither correlated with stand age nor species successional status but was found to display significant phylogenetic signal. Results from this study are relevant to understanding the dynamics of tree species growth and competition during forest succession and highlight possibilities of, and potentially confounding signals affecting, the utility of leaf traits to understand community and species dynamics during secondary forest succession.

Soil biota responses to long-term atmospheric CO2 enrichment in two California annual grasslands.

Root, arbuscular-mycorrhizal (AM), soil faunal (protozoa and microarthropods), and microbial responses to field exposure to CO2 for six growing seasons were measured in spring 1997 in two adjacent grassland communities. The grasslands showed contrasting root responses to CO2 enrichment: whereas root length was not affected in the sandstone grassland, it was greater in the serpentine grassland, as was specific root length. AM fungal hyphal lengths were greater in the sandstone, but were unaffected in the serpentine community. This lent support to the hypothesis that there may be a tradeoff in resource allocation to more fine roots or greater mycorrhizal extraradical hyphal length. AM root infection was greater in both communities at elevated CO2, as was the proportion of roots containing arbuscules. Our data on total hyphal lengths, culturable and active fungi, bacteria, and protozoa supported the hypothesis that the fungal food chain was more strongly stimulated than the bacterial chain. This study is one of the first to test these hypotheses in natural multi-species communities in the field.