A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave.

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October-19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

Ca2+ sensitizing effects of EMD 53998 after troponin replacement in skinned fibres from porcine atria and ventricles.

Skinned fibres from porcine ventricles exhibited a higher Ca2+ sensitivity (pCa50, i.e. -log10 Ca2+ concentration required for half-maximal activation, for force generation) than atrial fibres. The thiadiazinone derivative EMD 53998 increased Ca2+ sensitivity and Ca2+ efficacy in both preparations. The drug effect depended on the isoform of troponin (Tn). Using the vanadate method TnI and TnC could be partly extracted and replaced by foreign tropin or by the TnI subunit of added foreign troponins. We investigated the relationship between pCa and force development before and after replacement of TnI with foreign troponin (bovine ventricular troponin, cTn, or rabbit skeletal muscle troponin, sTn) in the presence and absence of EMD 53998. Substitution with bovine cTn increased Ca2+ sensitivity to a value characteristic of bovine ventricular skinned fibres (pCa50 = 5.4) and was further increased by EMD 53998. Substitution with sTn also increased Ca2+ sensitivity, but subsequent addition of EMD 53998 caused little further increase in Ca2+ sensitivity. Following extraction of TnI with vanadate, skinned fibres contracted in a Ca(2+)-independent manner and failed to relax at a pCa of 8. Relaxation could be induced, however, by bovine ventricular TnI and rabbit skeletal muscle recombinant TnI. This relaxation could be reversed by EMD 53998 (100 microM). The Ca(2+)-independent force of contracted fibres could also be depressed by a TnI inhibitory peptide, (cTnI 137-148) and, in addition, this effect was antagonized by EMD 53998.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Myofibrillar Ca2+ sensitivity of cardiomyopathic hamster hearts.

We studied the Ca2+ responsiveness of skinned muscle fibre preparations from the right and left ventricles of normal (FIB) and genetically cardiomyopathic (Bio-To-2) Syrian hamsters. Thus, we compared the Ca2+/force relationships of preparations from myopathic hamsters to those of age-matched (11-16 months old) normal animals. The pCa (i.e. -log10 [Ca2+]) required for 50% force activation (Ca2+ sensitivity) was higher in the myopathic hamsters than in controls (pCa50 values of 5.3 +/- 0.03 and 5.17 +/- 0.04, respectively); this difference might be due to an alteration in regulatory proteins. Indeed, after extraction (with vanadate) and replacement of troponin I with bovine cardiac troponin the pCa50 values were similar (pCa 5.35) to those of bovine ventricular fibres. The Ca2+ sensitizer EMD 53998 (10 microM) increased Ca2+ sensitivity in preparations from normal and cardiomyopathic hamsters equally, by 0.4 pCa units. Incubation of fibre bundles with the catalytic subunit of cyclic-adenosine-monophosphate-dependent protein kinase decreased Ca2+ sensitivity, thereby "normalizing" the enhanced Ca2+ responsiveness of fibres from cardiomyopathic hamsters. It is not clear, however, whether the pathologically increased Ca2+ sensitivity of the hearts of aged myopathic hamsters reflects a maladaptation, or a compensatory mechanism of the failing heart.