Cost-effectiveness of routine surveillance endomyocardial biopsy after 12 months post-heart transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Despite low risk of late rejection after heart transplant (HT), surveillance endomyocardial biopsies (EMBs) are often continued for years. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of routine EMB after 12 months post-HT. METHODS AND RESULTS: Markov model compared the following surveillance EMB strategies to baseline strategy of stopping EMB 12 months post-HT: (1) every 4 months during year 2 post-HT, (2) every 6 months during year 2, (3) every 4 months for years 2 to 3, and (4) every 6 months for years 2 to 3. Patients entered the model 12 months post-HT and were followed until 36 months. In all strategies, patients had EMB with symptoms; in biopsy strategies after 12 months, EMB was also performed as scheduled regardless of symptoms. One-way and Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were performed. Stopping EMB at 12 months was dominant (more effective, less costly), saving $2884 per patient compared with the next best strategy (every 6 months for year 2) and gaining 0.0011 quality-adjusted life-years. Increasing the annual risk of asymptomatic rejection in years 2 to 3 from previously reported 2.5% to 8.5% resulted in the biopsy every 6 months for year 2 strategy gaining 0.0006 quality-adjusted life-years, but cost $4 913 599 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. EMB for 12 months was also no longer dominant when mortality risk from untreated asymptomatic rejection approached 11%; competing strategies still cost >$200 000 per quality-adjusted life-year as that risk approached 99%. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance EMB for 12 months post-HT is more effective and less costly than EMB performed after 12 months, unless risks of asymptomatic cellular rejection and its mortality are strikingly higher than previously observed.

Myocardial damage detected by late gadolinium enhancement cardiovascular magnetic resonance is associated with subsequent hospitalization for heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) is among the most important problems confronting medicine. Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) robustly identifies intrinsic myocardial damage. LGE may indicate inherent vulnerability to HHF, regardless of etiology, across the spectrum of heart failure stage or left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We enrolled 1068 consecutive patients referred for CMR where 448 (42%) exhibited LGE. After a median of 1.4 years (Q1 to Q3: 0.9 to 2.0 years), 57 HHF events occurred, 15 deaths followed HHF, and 43 deaths occurred without antecedent HHF (58 total deaths). Using multivariable Cox regression adjusting for LVEF, heart failure stage, and other covariates, LGE was associated with first HHF after CMR (HR: 2.70, 95% CI: 1.32 to 5.50), death (HR: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.08 to 4.21), or either death or HHF (HR: 2.52, 95% CI: 1.49 to 4.25). Quantifying LGE extent yielded similar results; more LGE equated higher risks. LGE improved model discrimination (IDI: 0.016, 95% CI: 0.005 to 0.028, P=0.002) and reclassification of individuals at risk (continuous NRI: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.70, P=0.024). Adjustment for competing risks of death that shares common risk factors with HHF strengthened the LGE and HHF association (HR: 4.85, 95% CI: 1.40 to 16.9). CONCLUSIONS: The presence and extent of LGE is associated with vulnerability for HHF, including higher risks of HHF across the spectrum of heart failure stage and LVEF. Even when LVEF is severely decreased, those without LGE appear to fare reasonably well. LGE may enhance risk stratification for HHF and may enhance both clinical and research efforts to reduce HHF through targeted treatment.