ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to establish a nomogram for predicting radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RHT) based on an equivalent dose at 2 Gy per fraction (EQD2) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with or without chemotherapy. METHODS: Two hundred forty-four eligible patients with NPC were recruited for this study. Patients' clinical factors and dose-volume parameters of the thyroid gland were retrieved from medical records and the IMRT treatment planning system, respectively. The irradiation doses were converted into EQD2 for analysis. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to identify optimal predictors of RHT for constructing the nomogram. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 63.0 months, the cumulative incidence rates of RHT at 3 months and 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 5- year after IMRT were 10.2%, 36.2%, 47.6%, 54.2%, 58.8% and 69.4%, respectively. Four independent factors for predicting RHT, including gender, age, pretreatment volume of the thyroid gland and V35Gy(3Gy) of the thyroid gland, were identified and incorporated into the nomogram. The area under the ROC curve of the nomogram was 0.747 (95% confidence interval 0.685 - 0.809). Calibration curves and DCA curves showed that the nomogram was in good agreement with the actual observations and clinical usefulness. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram proposed in this study provides a reliable estimate of RHT risk in patients with NPC after IMRT and appears to have the potential to be a useful tool for widespread clinical applications.