Incorporating Individual-Level Treatment Effects and Outcome Preferences Into Personalized Blood Pressure Target Recommendations.

BACKGROUND: There are no shared decision-making frameworks for selecting blood pressure (BP) targets for individuals with hypertension. This study addressed whether results from the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) could be tailored to individuals using predicted risks and simulated preferences. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among 8202 SPRINT participants, Cox models were developed and internally validated to predict each individual's absolute difference in risk from intensive versus standard BP lowering for cardiovascular events, cognitive impairment, death, and serious adverse events (AEs). Individual treatment effects were combined using simulated preference weights into a net benefit, which represents a weighted sum of risk differences across outcomes. Net benefits were compared among those above versus below the median AE risk. In simulations for which cardiovascular, cognitive, and death events had much greater weight than the AEs of BP lowering, the median net benefit was 3.3 percentage points (interquartile range [IQR], 2.0-5.7), and 100% of participants had a net benefit favoring intensive BP lowering. When simulating benefits and harms to have similar weights, the median net benefit was 0.8 percentage points (IQR, 0.2-2.2), and 87% had a positive net benefit. Compared with participants at lower risk of AEs from BP lowering, those at higher risk had a greater net benefit from intensive BP lowering despite experiencing more AEs (P<0.001 in both simulations). CONCLUSIONS: Most SPRINT participants had a predicted net benefit that favored intensive BP lowering, but the degree of net benefit varied considerably. Tailoring BP targets using each patient's risks and preferences may provide more refined BP target recommendations.

Joint and Individual Mitochondrial DNA Variation and Cognitive Outcomes in Black and White Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Mitochondrial dysfunction manifests in neurodegenerative diseases and other age-associated disorders. In this study, we examined variation in inherited mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences in Black and White participants from 2 large aging studies to identify variants related to cognitive function. METHODS: Participants included self-reported Black and White adults aged ≥70 years in the Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders (LIFE; N = 1 319) and Health Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC; N = 788) studies. Cognitive function was measured by the Digit-Symbol Substitution Test (DSST), and the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MSE) at baseline and over follow-up in LIFE (3.6 years) and Health ABC (10 years). We examined the joint effects of multiple variants across 16 functional mitochondrial regions with cognitive function using a sequence kernel association test. Based on these results, we prioritized meta-analysis of common variants in Black and White participants using mixed effects models. A Bonferroni-adjusted p value of <.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Joint variation in subunits ND1, ND2, and ND5 of Complex I, 12S RNA, and hypervariable region (HVR) were significantly associated with DSST and 3MSE at baseline. In meta-analyses among Black participants, variant m.4216T>C, ND1 was associated with a faster decline in 3MSE, and variant m.462C>T in the HVR was associated with a slower decline in DSST. Variant m.5460G>C, ND2 was associated with slower and m.182C>T in the HVR was associated with faster decline in 3MSE in White participants. CONCLUSIONS: Among Black and White adults, oxidative phosphorylation Complex I variants were associated with cognitive function.

Urine Epidermal Growth Factor and Kidney Function Decline in Middle-Aged Adults.

Rationale & Objective: The diagnosis and prognostication of chronic kidney disease (CKD) largely rely on glomerular measures that may not reflect tubular damage. We investigated the associations of urine kidney tubule biomarkers with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) change among middle-aged adults, when chronic diseases typically emerge. Study Design: An observational cohort study. Setting & Participants: A total of 1,145 participants of the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study without CKD, hypertension, or cardiovascular disease at the year 20 visit. Exposures: Seven different biomarkers of tubular health: urine epidermal growth factor (EGF), alpha-1-microglobulin (α1m), interleukin-18, kidney injury molecule-1, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, uromodulin, and chitinase-3-like protein 1. Outcomes: Ten-year eGFR change and incident reduced eGFR (new onset of eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2). Analytical Approach: We examined associations of tubular health biomarkers with 10-year eGFR change and incident reduced eGFR with linear mixed models and interval-censored proportional hazards regression models, respectively. Both minimally and fully adjusted models were controlled for urine creatinine levels. Results: The mean age of participants was 44.8 ± 3.7 years, with 39% African American and 56% female. The average 10-year change in eGFR was -18.6 mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI, -19.4 to -17.8). In contrast to the other tubular biomarkers, which showed conflicting results, EGF demonstrated strong, consistent associations with both kidney outcomes. Each 1-standard deviation (SD) higher EGF was associated with a 2.37 mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI, 0.64-4.10) smaller 10-year decrease in eGFR and a 42% (95% CI, 4%-64%) lower risk of incident reduced eGFR in the fully adjusted model. Limitations: Observational design, measurements of eGFR were done only at 5-year intervals during follow-up. Conclusions: In middle-aged, community-dwelling adults without hypertension, cardiovascular disease or CKD, higher urine EGF concentrations are associated with slower eGFR decline, whereas other kidney tubule biomarkers lacked a consistent association with kidney function decline.

Current measures of chronic kidney disease (CKD) rely on markers of glomerular health and function. This approach inadequately captures the role of kidney tubule health, a known histopathological predictor of CKD development. We investigated associations of 7 biomarkers of kidney tubule health with 10-year estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) change and incident reduced eGFR. Among 7 biomarkers, only epidermal growth factor showed persistent and inverse associations with both 10-year eGFR change and incident reduced eGFR. These findings suggest that epidermal growth factor has an association with kidney function changes and might play a protective role in kidney disease development.

High-Sensitivity Troponin T, NT-proBNP, and Cognitive Outcomes in SPRINT.

BACKGROUND: Hs-cTnT (cardiac troponin T measured with a highly sensitive assay) and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) may identify adults with hypertension who derive greater cognitive benefits from lower systolic blood pressure targets. METHODS: In the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) MIND study, participants were categorized as having both hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP in the lower 2 tertiles (n=4226), one in the highest tertile (n=2379), and both in the highest tertile (n=1506). We assessed the effect of intensive versus standard treatment on the composite of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or probable dementia (PD) across biomarker categories. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 5.1 years, 830 of 8111 participants (10.2%) developed MCI or PD. Participants in the highest biomarker category were at higher risk of MCI or PD compared with those in the lowest category (hazard ratio, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.00-1.56]). The effect of intensive treatment on reducing the risk of MCI or PD was greater among participants in the lowest biomarker category (hazard ratio, 0.64 [95% CI, 0.50-0.81]) than those in the intermediate (hazard ratio, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.80-1.28]) or highest categories (hazard ratio, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.72-1.13]; Pinteraction=0.02). The 5-year absolute risk differences in MCI or PD with intensive treatment were -2.9% (-4.4%, -1.3%), -0.2% (-3.0%, 2.6%), and -1.9% (-6.2%, 2.4%) in the lowest, intermediate, and highest biomarker categories, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In SPRINT, the relative effect of intensive systolic blood pressure lowering on preventing cognitive impairment appears to be stronger among participants with lower compared with higher cardiac biomarker levels, though the absolute risk reductions were similar.

Urine Biomarkers of Kidney Tubule Health and Risk of Incident CKD in Persons Without Diabetes: The ARIC, MESA, and REGARDS Studies.

Rationale & Objective: Tubulointerstitial damage is a feature of early chronic kidney disease (CKD), but current clinical tests capture it poorly. Urine biomarkers of tubulointerstitial health may identify risk of CKD. Study Design: Prospective cohort (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC]) and case-cohort (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA] and Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke [REGARDS]). Setting & Participants: Adults with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and without diabetes in the ARIC, REGARDS, and MESA studies. Exposures: Baseline urine monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), alpha-1-microglobulin (α1m), kidney injury molecule-1, epidermal growth factor, and chitinase-3-like protein 1. Outcome: Incident CKD or end-stage kidney disease. Analytical Approach: Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression for each cohort; meta-analysis of results from all 3 cohorts. Results: 872 ARIC participants (444 cases of incident CKD), 636 MESA participants (158 cases), and 924 REGARDS participants (488 cases) were sampled. Across cohorts, mean age ranged from 60 ± 10 to 63 ± 8 years, and baseline eGFR ranged from 88 ± 13 to 91 ± 14 mL/min/1.73 m2. In ARIC, higher concentrations of urine MCP-1, α1m, and kidney injury molecule-1 were associated with incident CKD. In MESA, higher concentration of urine MCP-1 and lower concentration of epidermal growth factor were each associated with incident CKD. In REGARDS, none of the biomarkers were associated with incident CKD. In meta-analysis of all 3 cohorts, each 2-fold increase α1m concentration was associated with incident CKD (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.08-1.31). Limitations: Observational design susceptible to confounding; competing risks during long follow-up period; meta-analysis limited to 3 cohorts. Conclusions: In 3 combined cohorts of adults without prevalent CKD or diabetes, higher urine α1m concentration was independently associated with incident CKD. 4 biomarkers were associated with incident CKD in at least 1 of the cohorts when analyzed individually. Kidney tubule health markers might inform CKD risk independent of eGFR and albuminuria.

This study analyzed 3 cohorts (ARIC, MESA, and REGARDS) of adults without diabetes or prevalent chronic kidney disease (CKD) to determine the associations of 5 urinary biomarkers of kidney tubulointerstitial health with incident CKD, independent of traditional measures of kidney health. Meta-analysis of results from all 3 cohorts suggested that higher baseline levels of urine alpha-1-microglobulin were associated with incident CKD at follow-up. Results from individual cohorts suggested that in addition to alpha-1-microglobulin, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, kidney injury molecule-1, and epidermal growth factor may also be associated with the development of CKD. These findings underscore the importance of kidney tubule interstitial health in defining risk of CKD independent of creatinine and urine albumin.

Proneurotensin/Neuromedin N and Risk of Incident CKD and Other Kidney Outcomes in Community-Living Individuals: The REGARDS Study.

Rationale & Objective: Plasma proneurotensin/neuromedin N (pro-NT/NMN) is a precursor of neurotensin, a tridecapeptide linked with type 2 diabetes mellitus and other comorbid conditions associated with kidney disease. Whether pro-NT/NMN is directly associated with incident chronic kidney disease (CKD), and whether that association differs by race, is uncertain. We evaluated whether pro-NT/NMN levels were associated with increased risk of kidney outcomes. Study Design: Prospective cohort. Setting & Participants: Participants in Biomarker Mediators of Racial Disparities in Risk Factors, a nested cohort from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke study, with available stored serum and urine samples from baseline and second visits for biomarker measurement. Exposure: Baseline log-transformed pro-NT/NMN. Outcomes: Incident CKD, progressive estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline, incident albuminuria, and incident kidney failure within median follow-up time of 9.4 years. Analytical Approach: Logistic regression. Results: Among 3,914 participants, the mean ± SD age was 64 ± 8 (SD) years, 48% were women, and 51% were Black. Median baseline eGFR was 90 (IQR, 77-102) mL/min/1.73 m2. Each SD higher of pro-NT/NMN was associated with 9% higher odds of progressive eGFR decline (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00-1.20). There was no association observed with incident CKD (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.96-1.27), incident albuminuria (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.96-1.22), or incident kidney failure (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.83-1.46). There were no differences in results by race or sex. Limitations: Single measurement of pro-NT/NMN and limited generalizability. Conclusions: Higher pro-NT/NMN was associated with progressive eGFR decline but no other manifestations of kidney disease incidence.

Neurotensin is a peptide secreted by the small intestine in response to a meal. Higher levels of neurotensin and its stable precursor, proneurotensin/neuromedin N (pro-NT/NMN), have been associated with cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus, important risk factors for the development of kidney disease. Whether pro-NT/NMN is directly associated with kidney outcomes has been less studied and has been done so in largely homogenous cohorts of White participants. Using the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke study, we followed Black and White participants and evaluated the risk of developing kidney outcomes. We found that elevated levels of pro-NT/NMN were associated with kidney function decline. Pro-NT/NMN may help individuals who may benefit from closer monitoring of kidney function.

Cystatin C- and Creatinine-based Estimated GFR Differences: Prevalence and Predictors in the UK Biobank.

Rationale & Objective: Large differences between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on cystatin C (eGFRcys) and creatinine (eGFRcr) occur commonly. A comprehensive evaluation of factors that contribute to these differences is needed to guide the interpretation of discrepant eGFR values. Study Design: Cohort study. Setting & Participants: 468,969 participants in the UK Biobank. Exposures: Candidate sociodemographic, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, medication usage, and physical and laboratory predictors. Outcomes: eGFRdiff, defined as eGFRcys minus eGFRcr, categorized into 3 levels: lower eGFRcys (eGFRdiff, less than -15 mL/min/1.73 m2), concordant eGFRcys and eGFRcr (eGFRdiff, -15 to < 15 mL/min/1.73 m2), and lower eGFRcr (eGFRdiff, ≥15 mL/min/1.73 m2). Analytical Approach: Multinomial logistic regression models were constructed to identify predictors of lower eGFRcys or lower eGFRcr. We developed 2 prediction models comprising 375,175 participants: (1) a clinical model using clinically available variables and (2) an enriched model additionally including lifestyle variables. The models were internally validated in an additional 93,794 participants. Results: Mean ± standard deviation of eGFRcys was 88 ± 16 mL/min/1.73 m2, and eGFRcr was 95 ± 13 mL/min/1.73 m2; 25% and 5% of participants were in the lower eGFRcys and lower eGFRcr groups, respectively. In the multivariable enriched model, strong predictors of lower eGFRcys were older age, male sex, South Asian ethnicity, current smoker (vs never smoker), history of thyroid dysfunction, chronic inflammatory disease, steroid use, higher waist circumference and body fat, and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio >300 mg/g. Odds ratio estimates for these predictors were largely inverse of those in the lower eGFRcr group. The model's area under the curve was 0.75 in the validation set, with good calibration (1.00). Limitations: Limited generalizability. Conclusions: This study highlights the multitude of demographic, lifestyle, and health characteristics that are associated with large eGFRdiff. The clinical model may identify individuals who are likely to have discrepant eGFR values and thus should be prioritized for cystatin C testing.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on cystatin C and creatinine may differ substantially within an individual. Although most clinicians are aware that creatinine is influenced by muscle mass, there are additional numerous lifestyle and health characteristics that may affect serum concentrations of either biomarker. Our analyses of 468,969 individuals in the UK Biobank identified independent predictors of large differences between eGFR based on cystatin C and eGFR based on creatinine, which may inform the interpretation of discrepant eGFR values within an individual. We developed models that may be implemented at a population level to help health systems identify individuals who are likely to have large differences between eGFR based on cystatin C and eGFR based on creatinine and thus should be prioritized for cystatin C testing.

Associations of Ambulatory Blood Pressure Measurements With High-Sensitivity Troponin and Natriuretic Peptide Levels in SPRINT.

BACKGROUND: Nighttime blood pressure (BP) has greater prognostic importance for cardiovascular disease (CVD) than daytime BP, but less is known about nighttime and daytime BP associations with measures of subclinical CVD. METHODS: Among 897 Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial Study (SPRINT) participants with 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring obtained near the 27-month study visit, 849 (95%) had N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) measured at the 24-month study visit. Multivariable linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate the associations of nighttime and daytime BP with cardiac biomarker levels. RESULTS: The mean age was 69 ±â€…12 years, 28% were African American, and mean nighttime and daytime SBP were 121 ±â€…16 mm Hg and 132 ±â€…14 mm Hg, respectively. In multivariable models, compared with the lowest tertile of nighttime systolic BP, the highest tertile was associated with 48% higher NT-proBNP levels (adjusted geometric mean ratio [GMR] = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.22, 1.79), and 19% higher hs-cTnT levels (adjusted GMR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.32). In contrast, the highest vs. lowest tertile of daytime systolic BP was not associated with NT-proBNP (adjusted GMR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.88, 1.34), but was associated with 16% higher hs-cTnT levels (adjusted GMR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.30). Similar results were observed using diastolic BP. CONCLUSIONS: In SPRINT, both higher nighttime and daytime BP were independently associated with higher hs-cTnT levels, but only higher nighttime BP was associated with higher NT-proBNP levels.

Risk factors for hip and vertebral fractures in chronic kidney disease: the CRIC study.

Fracture risk is high in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and underlying pathophysiology and risk factors may differ from the general population. In a cohort study of 3939 participants in the chronic renal insufficiency cohort (CRIC), we used Cox regression to test associations of putative risk factors with the composite of first hip or vertebral fracture assessed using hospital discharge codes. Mean age was 58 years, 45% were female, 42% were Black, and 13% were Hispanic. There were 82 hip and 24 vertebral fractures over a mean (SD) 11.1 (4.8) years (2.4 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI: 2.0, 2.9]). Measured at baseline, diabetes, lower body mass index (BMI), steroid use, proteinuria, and elevated parathyroid hormone (PTH) were each associated with fracture risk after adjusting for covariates. Lower time-updated estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was associated with fractures (HR 1.20 per 10 mL/min/1.73m2 lower eGFR; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.38) as were lower time-updated serum calcium and bicarbonate concentrations. Among time-updated categories of kidney function, hazard ratios (95% CI) for incident fracture were 4.53 (1.77, 11.60) for kidney failure treated with dialysis and 2.48 (0.86, 7.14) for post-kidney transplantation, compared with eGFR ≥60. Proton pump inhibitor use, dietary calcium intake, measures of vitamin D status, serum phosphate, urine calcium and phosphate, and plasma fibroblast growth factor-23 were not associated with fracture risk. In conclusion, lower eGFR in CKD is associated with higher fracture risk, which was highest in kidney failure. Diabetes, lower BMI, steroid use, proteinuria, higher serum concentrations of PTH, and lower calcium and bicarbonate concentrations were associated with fractures and may be modifiable risk factors.

People with chronic kidney disease are at high risk of fractures. Our research assessed the relationship between several patient characteristics and the risk of fractures in 3939 patients with chronic kidney disease. We found that the following characteristics were associated with a higher risk of a hip or spine fracture: having diabetes, lower body mass index, use of steroid-containing medications, lower kidney filtration rate ("eGFR"), higher amounts of protein spilled in the urine, lower calcium and bicarbonate levels, and higher parathyroid hormone levels. Future studies should assess if improving these characteristics decreases the risk of fractures in patients with chronic kidney disease.

Intensive Blood Pressure Lowering in Individuals With Low Diastolic Blood Pressure and Elevated Troponin Levels in SPRINT.

BACKGROUND: Among individuals with hypertension and low diastolic blood pressure (DBP), the optimal BP target remains controversial due to concerns that BP lowering may reduce coronary perfusion. We determined the impact of intensive BP control among individuals with elevated systolic BP who have low DBP and elevated hs-cTnT (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T) levels. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 8828 participants in SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) were stratified by baseline DBP. Those with low DBP (<70 mm Hg) were further stratified by elevated hs-cTnT (≥14 ng/L) at baseline. The effects of intensive versus standard BP lowering on a cardiovascular disease composite end point, all-cause death, and 1-year change in hs-cTnT were determined. The combination of low DBP/high hs-cTnT was independently associated with a higher risk for cardiovascular disease and all-cause death, as well as greater 1-year increases in hs-cTnT, compared with DBP ≥70 mm Hg. However, randomization to intensive versus standard BP lowering led to similar reductions in cardiovascular disease risk among individuals with low DBP/high hs-cTnT (hazard ratio [HR], 0.82 [95% CI, 0.57-1.19]), low DBP/low hs-cTnT (HR, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.29-0.79]), and DBP ≥70 mm Hg (HR, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.60-0.89]; P for interaction=0.20). Intensive BP lowering also led to a reduction in all-cause death that was similar across groups (P for interaction=0.57). CONCLUSIONS: In this nonprespecified subgroup analysis of SPRINT, individuals with low DBP and elevated hs-cTnT, low DBP and nonelevated hs-cTnT, and DBP ≥70 mm Hg derived similar cardiovascular disease and mortality benefits from intensive BP lowering. These findings warrant confirmation in other studies.

Mitochondrial genetic variation and risk of chronic kidney disease and acute kidney injury in UK Biobank participants.

Experimental models suggest an important role for mitochondrial dysfunction in the pathogenesis of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and acute kidney injury (AKI), but little is known regarding the impact of common mitochondrial genetic variation on kidney health. We sought to evaluate associations of inherited mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation with risk of CKD and AKI in a large population-based cohort. We categorized UK Biobank participants who self-identified as white into eight distinct mtDNA haplotypes, which were previously identified based on their associations with phenotypes associated with mitochondrial DNA copy number, a measure of mitochondrial function. We used linear and logistic regression models to evaluate associations of these mtDNA haplotypes with estimated glomerular filtration rate by serum creatinine and cystatin C (eGFRCr-CysC, N = 362,802), prevalent (N = 416 cases) and incident (N = 405 cases) end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), AKI defined by diagnostic codes (N = 14,170 cases), and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR, N = 114,662). The mean age was 57 ± 8 years and the mean eGFR was 90 ± 14 ml/min/1.73 m2. MtDNA haplotype was significantly associated with eGFR (p = 2.8E-12), but not with prevalent ESKD (p = 5.9E-2), incident ESKD (p = 0.93), AKI (p = 0.26), or urine ACR (p = 0.54). The association of mtDNA haplotype with eGFR remained significant after adjustment for diabetes mellitus and hypertension (p = 1.2E-10). When compared to the reference haplotype, mtDNA haplotypes I (ß = 0.402, standard error (SE) = 0.111; p = 2.7E-4), IV (ß = 0.430, SE = 0.073; p = 4.2E-9), and V (ß = 0.233, SE = 0.050; p = 2.7E-6) were each associated with higher eGFR. Among self-identified white UK Biobank participants, mtDNA haplotype was associated with eGFR, but not with ESKD, AKI or albuminuria.