Global Progression Rates of Precursor Lesions for Gastric Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Whether gastric cancer (GC) precursor lesions progress to invasive cancer at similar rates globally remains unknown. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the progression of precursor lesions to GC in countries with low versus medium/high incidence. METHODS: We searched relevant databases for studies reporting the progression of endoscopically confirmed precursor lesions to GC. Studies were stratified by low (<6 per 100,000) or medium/high (≥6 per 100,000) GC incidence countries. Random-effects models were used to estimate the progression rates of atrophic gastritis (AG), intestinal metaplasia (IM), and dysplasia to GC per 1,000 person-years. RESULTS: Among the 5,829 studies identified, 44 met our inclusion criteria. The global pooled estimates of the progression rate per 1,000 person-years were 2.09 (95% CI 1.46-2.99), 2.89 (2.03-4.11) and 10.09 (5.23-19.49) for AG, IM, and dysplasia respectively. The estimated progression rates per 1,000 person-years for low versus medium/high GC incidence countries, respectively, were 0.97 (0.86-1.10) vs. 2.47 (1.70-2.99) for AG (p<0.01); 2.37 (1.43-3.92) vs. 3.47 (2.13-5.65) for IM (p=0.29); and 5.51 (2.92-10.39) vs. 14.80 (5.87-37.28) for dysplasia (p=0.08). There were no differences for progression of AG between groups when high quality studies were compared. CONCLUSION: Similar progression rates of IM and dysplasia were observed among low and medium/high GC incidence countries. This suggests that the potential benefits of surveillance for these lesions in low-risk regions may be comparable to those of population-wide interventions in high-risk regions. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings and inform global screening and surveillance guidelines.

Impact of the serrated pathway on the simulated comparative effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening tests.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancers (CRCs) arise from adenomas, which can produce fecal occult blood and can be detected endoscopically, or sessile serrated lesions (SSLs), which rarely bleed and may be more challenging to detect. Models informing CRC screening policy should reflect both pathways, accounting for uncertainty. METHODS: Novel decision-analytic model of the adenoma and serrated pathways for CRC (ANSER) to compare current and emerging screening strategies, accounting for differential test sensitivities for adenomas and SSLs, and uncertainty. Strategies included colonoscopy every 10 years, stool-DNA/FIT (sDNA-FIT) every 1-3 years, or fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) every year from age 45-75 years. Outcomes included CRC cases and deaths, cost-effectiveness (cost/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained), and burden-benefit (colonoscopies/life-year gained), with 95% uncertainty intervals (95%UIs). RESULTS: ANSER predicted 62.5 (95%UI, 58.8-66.3) lifetime CRC cases and 24.1 (95%UI, 22.5-25.7) CRC deaths/1,000 45-year-olds without screening, and 78-87% CRC mortality reductions with screening. The tests' outcome distributions overlapped for QALYs gained but separated for required colonoscopies and costs. All strategies cost <$100,000/QALY gained vs no screening. Colonoscopy was the most effective and cost-effective, costing $9,300/life-year gained (95%UI, $500-21,900) vs FIT. sDNA-FIT cost >$500,000/QALY gained vs FIT. As more CRCs arose from SSLs, colonoscopy remained preferred based on clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness, but cost-effectiveness improved for a next-generation sDNA-FIT. CONCLUSION: When the serrated pathway is considered, modeling suggests colonoscopy is cost-effective vs FIT. In contrast, modeling suggests sDNA-FIT is not cost-effective vs FIT despite its greater sensitivity for SSLs, even if a substantial minority of CRCs arise from SSLs. FUNDING: Dutch Research Council (NWO).

Generation of two induced pluripotent stem cell lines from patients with Li-Fraumeni Syndrome carrying TP53 mutation.

Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) is a rare autosomal dominant inherited genetic disorder that greatly increases the risk of developing several types of cancer, including young children and young adults. LFS is primarily caused by specific mutations in the tumor suppressor gene TP53. In this study, we successfully generated two human induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) lines derived from patients diagnosed with LFS, each carrying a distinct heterozygous mutation in the TP53 gene. These LFS patient-derived iPSC lines exhibited robust expression of key pluripotency markers, demonstrated the capacity to differentiate into all three germ layers (endoderm, mesoderm, and ectoderm), and maintained a normal karyotype. The establishment of these iPSC lines provides a valuable tool for modeling LFS in vitro, enabling researchers to investigate the underlying pathological mechanisms associated with the disease across various cell types and tissues.

Risk factors for metachronous colorectal cancer or advanced lesions after endoscopic resection of serrated polyps: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Serrated polyps (SPs) are precursors to 15% to 20% of colorectal cancers (CRCs). However, there are uncertainties regarding which SPs require surveillance and at what intervals, with recommendations adapted from those for adenomas in the absence of solid evidence. Our aim was to assess which SP risk characteristics relate to a higher risk of metachronous CRC or advanced polyps. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane for cohort studies, case-control studies, and clinical trials from inception to December 31, 2023, of CRC or advanced polyps (advanced adenoma [AA] or advanced SP) incidence at surveillance stratified by baseline SP size, dysplasia, location, and multiplicity. We defined advanced SPs as those ≥10 mm or with dysplasia. CRC and advanced polyp incidence per 1000 person-years were estimated. We performed a meta-analysis by calculating pooled relative risks (RRs) using a random-effects model. RESULTS: A total of 5903 studies were reviewed, and 14 were included with 493,949 patients (mean age, 59.5 years; 55% men). The mean follow-up was 4.9 years. CRC incidence per 1000 person-years was 2.09 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.29-2.90) for advanced SPs, 1.52 (95% CI, 0.78-2.25) for SPs of ≥10 mm, 5.86 (95% CI, 2.16-9.56) for SPs with dysplasia, 1.18 (95% CI, 0.77-1.60) for proximal SPs, 0.52 (95% CI, 0.08-1.12) for ≥3 SPs, 0.50 (95% CI, 0.35-0.66) for nonadvanced SPs, and 0.44 (95% CI, 0.41-0.46) for normal colonoscopy findings. Metachronous CRC risk was higher in advanced SPs versus nonadvanced SPs (RR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.11-3.04) and versus normal colonoscopy findings (RR, 2.92; 95% CI, 2.26-3.77), in SPs of ≥10 mm versus <10 mm (RR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.43-4.77) and versus normal colonoscopy findings (RR: 3.52; 95% CI, 2.17-5.69); and in SPs with dysplasia versus normal colonoscopy findings (RR: 2.71; 95% CI, 2.00-3.67). No increase in CRC or advanced polyp risk was found in patients with proximal versus distal SPs, nor in ≥3 SPs versus 1 or 2 SPs. CONCLUSIONS: CRC risk is significantly higher in patients with baseline advanced SPs after 4.9 years of follow-up, with risk magnitudes similar to those described for AA, supporting the current recommendation for 3-year surveillance in patients with advanced SPs.

Prevalence of Gastric Precursor Lesions in Countries With Differential Gastric Cancer Burden: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prevalence of precursor lesions for gastric cancer (GC) and the differential burden between countries of varying GC risk is not well-understood. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the global prevalence of precursor lesions. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence of atrophic gastritis (AG), gastric intestinal metaplasia (IM), and dysplasia in regions with low, medium, and high GC incidence. Because IM is an advanced manifestation of AG, we assessed the prevalence of less advanced precursors, regardless of the presence of more advanced lesions. Prevalence was sub-stratified by Helicobacter pylori infection, symptomatology, and period (<2000, 2000-2010, and >2010). RESULTS: Among the 582 articles that underwent full-text review, 166 studies met inclusion criteria. The global prevalence estimates of AG, IM, and dysplasia were 25.4%, 16.2%, and 2.0%, respectively, on the basis of 126 studies that reported the prevalence of less advanced precursors, regardless of the presence of more advanced lesions. The prevalence of all precursor lesions was higher in high and medium compared with low GC incidence countries (P < .01). Prevalence of AG and IM was significantly higher among H pylori-infected individuals (P < .01) but not statistically different between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals (P > .17). All precursors demonstrated a secular decrease in prevalence over time. CONCLUSIONS: Gastric precursor lesions have differences in prevalence in regions with differential GC incidence and are associated with H pylori infection. Because of the substantial prevalence of precursor lesions in both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, symptomatic evaluation may not be sufficient to identify individuals at risk. These estimates provide important insights for tailoring GC prevention strategies.

Comparative Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Colorectal Cancer Screening With Blood-Based Biomarkers (Liquid Biopsy) vs Fecal Tests or Colonoscopy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is highly effective but underused. Blood-based biomarkers (liquid biopsy) could improve screening participation. METHODS: Using our established Markov model, screening every 3 years with a blood-based test that meets minimum Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' thresholds (CMSmin) (CRC sensitivity 74%, specificity 90%) was compared with established alternatives. Test attributes were varied in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: CMSmin reduced CRC incidence by 40% and CRC mortality by 52% vs no screening. These reductions were less profound than the 68%-79% and 73%-81%, respectively, achieved with multi-target stool DNA (Cologuard; Exact Sciences) every 3 years, annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), or colonoscopy every 10 years. Assuming the same cost as multi-target stool DNA, CMSmin cost $28,500/quality-adjusted life-year gained vs no screening, but FIT, colonoscopy, and multi-target stool DNA were less costly and more effective. CMSmin would match FIT's clinical outcomes if it achieved 1.4- to 1.8-fold FIT's participation rate. Advanced precancerous lesion (APL) sensitivity was a key determinant of a test's effectiveness. A paradigm-changing blood-based test (sensitivity >90% for CRC and 80% for APL; 90% specificity; cost ≤$120-$140) would be cost-effective vs FIT at comparable participation. CONCLUSIONS: CMSmin could contribute to CRC control by achieving screening in those who will not use established methods. Substituting blood-based testing for established effective CRC screening methods will require higher CRC and APL sensitivities that deliver programmatic benefits matching those of FIT. High APL sensitivity, which can result in CRC prevention, should be a top priority for screening test developers. APL detection should not be penalized by a definition of test specificity that focuses on CRC only.

Colorectal cancer screening at age 45 years in Israel: Cost-effectiveness and global implications.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence at ages <50 years is increasing worldwide. Screening initiation was lowered to 45 years in the United States. The cost-effectiveness of initiating CRC screening at 45 years in Israel was assessed with the aim of informing national policy and addressing internationally relevant questions. METHODS: A validated CRC screening model was calibrated to Israeli data and examined annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) or colonoscopy every 10 years from 45 to 74 years (FIT45-74 or Colo45-74) versus from 50 to 74 years (FIT50-74 or Colo50-74). The addition of a fourth colonoscopy at 75 years was explored, subanalyses were performed by sex/ethnicity, and resource demands were estimated. RESULTS: FIT50-74 and Colo50-74 reduced CRC incidence by 57% and 70% and mortality by 70% and 77%, respectively, versus no screening, with greater absolute impact in Jews/Other versus Arabs but comparable relative impact. FIT45-74 further reduced CRC incidence and mortality by an absolute 3% and 2%, respectively. With Colo45-74 versus Colo50-74, CRC cases and deaths increased slightly as three colonoscopies per lifetime shifted to 5 years earlier but mean quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYGs) per person increased. FIT45-74 and Colo45-74 cost 23,800-53,900 new Israeli shekels (NIS)/QALYG and 110,600-162,700 NIS/QALYG, with the lowest and highest values among Jewish/Other men and Arab women, respectively. A fourth lifetime colonoscopy cost 48,700 NIS/QALYG. Lowering FIT initiation to 45 years with modest participation required 19,300 additional colonoscopies in the first 3 years. CONCLUSIONS: Beginning CRC screening at 45 years in Israel is projected to yield modest clinical benefits at acceptable costs per QALYG. Despite different estimates by sex/ethnicity, a uniform national policy is favored. These findings can inform Israeli guidelines and serve as a case study internationally.

Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Colonoscopy in Real-World Clinical Practice: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Artificial intelligence (AI) could minimize the operator-dependent variation in colonoscopy quality. Computer-aided detection (CADe) has improved adenoma detection rate (ADR) and adenomas per colonoscopy (APC) in randomized controlled trials. There is a need to assess the impact of CADe in real-world settings. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science for nonrandomized real-world studies of CADe in colonoscopy. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed to examine the effect of CADe on ADR and APC. The study is registered under PROSPERO (CRD42023424037). There was no funding for this study. RESULTS: Twelve of 1,314 studies met inclusion criteria. Overall, ADR was statistically significantly higher with vs without CADe (36.3% vs 35.8%, risk ratio [RR] 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.28). This difference remained significant in subgroup analyses evaluating 6 prospective (37.3% vs 35.2%, RR 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.32) but not 6 retrospective (35.7% vs 36.2%, RR 1.12, 95% CI 0.92-1.36) studies. Among 6 studies with APC data, APC rate ratio with vs without CADe was 1.12 (95% CI 0.95-1.33). In 4 studies with GI Genius (Medtronic), there was no difference in ADR with vs without CADe (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.85-1.07). DISCUSSION: ADR, but not APC, was slightly higher with vs without CADe among all available real-world studies. This difference was attributed to the results of prospective but not retrospective studies. The discrepancies between these findings and those of randomized controlled trials call for future research on the true impact of current AI technology on colonoscopy quality and the subtleties of human-AI interactions.

Impact of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status on incident and prevalent esophageal cancer in patients with Barrett's esophagus.

The impact of race/ethnicity (RE) or socioeconomic status (SES) on progression from Barrett's esophagus (BE) to esophageal cancer (EC) is not well established. We aimed to evaluate the association between demographic factors and SES on EC diagnosis in an ethnically diverse BE cohort. Patients aged 18-63 with incident BE diagnosed in October 2015-March 2020 were identified in the Optum Clinformatics DataMart Database. Patients were followed until the diagnosis of prevalent EC <1 year or incident EC ≥1 year from BE diagnosis, or until the end of their continuous enrollment period. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to determine associations between demographics, SES factors, BE risk factors, and EC. Demographics of the 12,693 patients included mean age of BE diagnosis 53.0 (SD 8.5) years, 56.4% male, 78.3% White/10.0% Hispanic/6.4% Black/3.0% Asian. The median follow-up was 26.8 (IQR 19.0-42.0) months. In total, 75 patients (0.59%) were diagnosed with EC (46 [0.36%] prevalent EC; 29 [0.23%] incident EC), and 74 patients (0.58%) developed high-grade dysplasia (HGD) (46 [0.36%] prevalent HGD; 28 [0.22%] incident HGD). Adjusted HR (95% CI) for prevalent EC comparing household net worth ≥$150,000 vs. <$150,000 was 0.57 (0.33-0.98). Adjusted HRs (95% CI) for prevalent and incident EC comparing non-White vs. White patients were 0.93 (0.47-1.85) and 0.97 (0.21-3.47), respectively. In summary, a lower SES, captured by the household net worth, was associated with prevalent EC. There was no significant difference in prevalent or incident EC among White vs. non-White patients. EC progression in BE may be similar among racial/ethnic groups, but SES disparities may impact BE outcomes.

An efficient strategy for evaluating new non-invasive screening tests for colorectal cancer: the guiding principles.

OBJECTIVE: New screening tests for colorectal cancer (CRC) are rapidly emerging. Conducting trials with mortality reduction as the end point supporting their adoption is challenging. We re-examined the principles underlying evaluation of new non-invasive tests in view of technological developments and identification of new biomarkers. DESIGN: A formal consensus approach involving a multidisciplinary expert panel revised eight previously established principles. RESULTS: Twelve newly stated principles emerged. Effectiveness of a new test can be evaluated by comparison with a proven comparator non-invasive test. The faecal immunochemical test is now considered the appropriate comparator, while colonoscopy remains the diagnostic standard. For a new test to be able to meet differing screening goals and regulatory requirements, flexibility to adjust its positivity threshold is desirable. A rigorous and efficient four-phased approach is proposed, commencing with small studies assessing the test's ability to discriminate between CRC and non-cancer states (phase I), followed by prospective estimation of accuracy across the continuum of neoplastic lesions in neoplasia-enriched populations (phase II). If these show promise, a provisional test positivity threshold is set before evaluation in typical screening populations. Phase III prospective studies determine single round intention-to-screen programme outcomes and confirm the test positivity threshold. Phase IV studies involve evaluation over repeated screening rounds with monitoring for missed lesions. Phases III and IV findings will provide the real-world data required to model test impact on CRC mortality and incidence. CONCLUSION: New non-invasive tests can be efficiently evaluated by a rigorous phased comparative approach, generating data from unbiased populations that inform predictions of their health impact.

Clinical implications of conflicting variant interpretations in the cancer genetics clinic.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to describe the clinical impact of commercial laboratories issuing conflicting classifications of genetic variants. METHODS: Results from 2000 patients undergoing a multigene hereditary cancer panel by a single laboratory were analyzed. Clinically significant discrepancies between the laboratory-provided test reports and other major commercial laboratories were identified, including differences between pathogenic/likely pathogenic and variant of uncertain significance (VUS) classifications, via review of ClinVar archives. For patients carrying a VUS, clinical documentation was assessed for evidence of provider awareness of the conflict. RESULTS: Fifty of 975 (5.1%) patients with non-negative results carried a variant with a clinically significant conflict, 19 with a pathogenic/likely pathogenic variant reported in APC or MUTYH, and 31 with a VUS reported in CDKN2A, CHEK2, MLH1, MSH2, MUTYH, RAD51C, or TP53. Only 10 of 28 (36%) patients with a VUS with a clinically significant conflict had a documented discussion by a provider about the conflict. Discrepant counseling strategies were used for different patients with the same variant. Among patients with a CDKN2A variant or a monoallelic MUTYH variant, providers were significantly more likely to make recommendations based on the laboratory-reported classification. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the frequency of variant interpretation discrepancies and importance of clinician awareness. Guidance is needed on managing patients with discrepant variants to support accurate risk assessment.