Biliary fibrosis is an important but neglected pathological feature in hepatobiliary disorders: from molecular mechanisms to clinical implications.

Fibrosis resulting from pathological repair secondary to recurrent or persistent tissue damage often leads to organ failure and mortality. Biliary fibrosis is a crucial but easily neglected pathological feature in hepatobiliary disorders, which may promote the development and progression of benign and malignant biliary diseases through pathological healing mechanisms secondary to biliary tract injuries. Elucidating the etiology and pathogenesis of biliary fibrosis is beneficial to the prevention and treatment of biliary diseases. In this review, we emphasized the importance of biliary fibrosis in cholangiopathies and summarized the clinical manifestations, epidemiology, and aberrant cellular composition involving the biliary ductules, cholangiocytes, immune system, fibroblasts, and the microbiome. We also focused on pivotal signaling pathways and offered insights into ongoing clinical trials and proposing a strategic approach for managing biliary fibrosis-related cholangiopathies. This review will offer a comprehensive perspective on biliary fibrosis and provide an important reference for future mechanism research and innovative therapy to prevent or reverse fibrosis.

A prospective randomized controlled trial of water exchange plus cap versus water exchange colonoscopy in unsedated Veterans.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Water exchange (WE) and cap-assisted colonoscopy (CAC) separately reduced pain during insertion in unsedated patients. We hypothesized that compared with WE, WECAC could significantly lower real-time maximum insertion pain (RTMIP). METHODS: Veterans without escort were recruited, randomized, blinded, and examined at three United States Veterans Affairs sites. The primary outcome was RTMIP, highest segmental pain (0 = no pain, 10 = most severe pain) during insertion. RESULTS: Randomization [WECAC (n = 143) and WE (n = 137)] produced even distribution of a racially diverse group of males and females of low socioeconomic status. Intention-to-treat analysis reported results of WECAC (listed first) and WE (listed second): cecal intubation [93%, 94.2%]; mean (SD) of RTMIP [2.9 (2.5), 2.6 (2.4)]; the proportion with no pain (28.7%, 27.7%); the insertion time [18.6 (15.6), 18.8 (15.9) min]; overall ADR (55.2%, 62.8%), all P values were > 0.05. When RTMIP was binarized as "no pain" (0) vs. "some pain" (1-10), or "low pain" (0-7) vs. "high pain" (8-10), different significant predictors (see text) of RTMIP were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Unsedated colonoscopy was appropriate for unescorted Veterans. WE alone was sufficient. Adding a cap did not reduce RTMIP. Patient specific factors and application of WE with insertion suction of infused water contributed to high and low RTMIP, respectively. For unesorted patients, selecting those with low anxiety, avoiding low body mass index, history of depression or self-reported poor health and adhering to the steps of WE can minimize RTMIP to ensure success of unsedated colonoscopy.

Reduction of Glyoxalase 1 Expression Links Fetal Methylmercury Exposure to Autism Spectrum Disorder Pathogenesis.

Glyoxalase 1 (Glo1) is an essential enzyme to detoxify methylglyoxal (MGO), a cytotoxic byproduct of glycolysis. Accumulating studies have shown an important role of Glo1 in regulating cortical development and neurogenesis, potentially contributing to the pathogenesis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) when impaired. We have previously shown that prenatal exposure to non-apoptotic low-dose methylmercury (MeHg), an environmental pollutant, induces premature cortical neurogenesis and ASD-like behaviors in a rodent model. In this study, we aimed to determine the underlying molecular mechanisms that mediate prenatal MeHg-induced premature neuronal differentiation and abnormal neurodevelopment. Using single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) and real-time quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR), we found that prenatal MeHg exposure at a non-apoptotic dose significantly reduced Glo1 gene expression in embryonic cultured radial glia precursors (RGPs). In cultured RGPs, the knockdown of Glo1 expression increased neuronal production at the expense of the cultured RGPs population, while overexpression of Glo1 restored MeHg-induced neuronal differentiation back to normal levels. Furthermore, we found that co-treatment with both MeHg and multiple MGO scavengers or a CREB inhibitor (iCREB) mitigated MeHg-induced premature neuronal differentiation, reinforcing the role of Glo1 and CREB in mediating MeHg-induced neuronal differentiation. Our findings demonstrate a direct link between MeHg exposure and expression of an ASD risk gene Glo1 in cortical development, supporting the important role of gene-environment interaction in contributing to the etiology of neural developmental disorders, such as ASD.

Early human fetal lung atlas reveals the temporal dynamics of epithelial cell plasticity.

Studying human fetal lungs can inform how developmental defects and disease states alter the function of the lungs. Here, we sequenced >150,000 single cells from 19 healthy human pseudoglandular fetal lung tissues ranging between gestational weeks 10-19. We capture dynamic developmental trajectories from progenitor cells that express abundant levels of the cystic fibrosis conductance transmembrane regulator (CFTR). These cells give rise to multiple specialized epithelial cell types. Combined with spatial transcriptomics, we show temporal regulation of key signalling pathways that may drive the temporal and spatial emergence of specialized epithelial cells including ciliated and pulmonary neuroendocrine cells. Finally, we show that human pluripotent stem cell-derived fetal lung models contain CFTR-expressing progenitor cells that capture similar lineage developmental trajectories as identified in the native tissue. Overall, this study provides a comprehensive single-cell atlas of the developing human lung, outlining the temporal and spatial complexities of cell lineage development and benchmarks fetal lung cultures from human pluripotent stem cell differentiations to similar developmental window.

Comparison of Right Colon Flat Polyp Detection Rate by Water Exchange Versus Water Immersion-pooled Results of Data File of 3 Published Reports.

GOALS: We tested the hypothesis that water exchange (WE) achieved a significantly higher right colon flat polyp detection rate (rFPDR) than water immersion (WI). BACKGROUND: Current endoscopy methods provide real-time morphology but not histopathology. Flat serrated polyps are difficult to find during colonoscopy. In 2022 2 studies reported that the serrated polyp detection rate (SPDR) significantly inversely predicted the development of interval cancers. In 2021 1 systemic review with meta-analysis showed that WE, but not WI increased SPDR. The relative contributions of WE and WI on rFPDR are unknown. STUDY: Individual patient data from 3 reports comparing air insufflation, WI, and WE were pooled. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to assess the factors associated with a higher rFPDR. RESULTS: The pooled data showed that the rFPDR of air insufflation, WI, and WE were 15.4%, 14.1%, and 19.4% ( P =0.009), respectively. After adjusting for age and withdrawal time, multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that WE, when compared with WI, was significantly associated with a higher rFPDR (adjusted odds ratio[aOR]=1.53, P =0.002). Analysis of data on pathology and size were omitted to avoid duplicating our earlier publications. CONCLUSIONS: Significantly higher rFPDR was achieved by WE. Water exchange rather than WI merits consideration for use to maximize rFPDR. Removal of flat polyps, and by inference serrated polyps, ensures their optimal management to minimize the occurrence of interval cancers. The potential benefit of WE in maximizing SPDR and minimizing interval cancers deserves evaluation in long-term randomized controlled studies focused on flat polyps detection.

Defining a Childhood Type 1 Diabetes Cohort, Clinical Practice Measures, and Outcomes Within Administrative Data in British Columbia.

OBJECTIVE: We used administrative data to 1) establish a cohort of individuals with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes (T1D) in British Columbia (BC), and 2) define T1D-related clinical practice measures. METHODS: We applied a validated diabetes case-finding definition and differentiating algorithm to linked administrative data (1992-1993 to 2019-2020). Cases were removed when they did not meet inclusion criteria for childhood-onset T1D. Clinical practice measures were defined based on clinical practice guidelines. RESULTS: We developed an administrative cohort that included 5,901 individuals with childhood-diagnosed T1D between April 1, 1996, and March 31, 2020. The mean age was 22.31 (standard deviation 8.21) years. Clinical practice measures derived included diabetes outpatient visits (N=4,935) and glycated hemoglobin tests (N=4,935), and screening for thyroid function (N=4,457), retinopathy (N=1,602), and nephropathy (N=2,369). CONCLUSIONS: We established an administrative cohort of ∼6,000 individuals with childhood-onset T1D with 20+ years of follow-up data that can be used to describe the association between clinical practice measures and clinical outcomes.

The gut microbiome dysbiosis and regulation by fecal microbiota transplantation: umbrella review.

Background: Gut microbiome dysbiosis has been implicated in various gastrointestinal and extra-gastrointestinal diseases, but evidence on the efficacy and safety of fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) for therapeutic indications remains unclear. Methods: The gutMDisorder database was used to summarize the associations between gut microbiome dysbiosis and diseases. We performed an umbrella review of published meta-analyses to determine the evidence synthesis on the efficacy and safety of FMT in treating various diseases. Our study was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022301226). Results: Gut microbiome dysbiosis was associated with 117 gastrointestinal and extra-gastrointestinal. Colorectal cancer was associated with 92 dysbiosis. Dysbiosis involving Firmicutes (phylum) was associated with 34 diseases. We identified 62 published meta-analyses of FMT. FMT was found to be effective for 13 diseases, with a 95.56% cure rate (95% CI: 93.88-97.05%) for recurrent Chloridoids difficile infection (rCDI). Evidence was high quality for rCDI and moderate to high quality for ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease but low to very low quality for other diseases. Conclusion: Gut microbiome dysbiosis may be implicated in numerous diseases. Substantial evidence suggests FMT improves clinical outcomes for certain indications, but evidence quality varies greatly depending on the specific indication, route of administration, frequency of instillation, fecal preparation, and donor type. This variability should inform clinical, policy, and implementation decisions regarding FMT.

Safety of high-carbohydrate fluid diet 2 h versus overnight fasting before non-emergency endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography: A single-blind, multicenter, randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Although overnight fasting is recommended prior to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), the benefits and safety of high-carbohydrate fluid diet (CFD) intake 2 h before ERCP remain unclear. This study aimed to analyze whether high-CFD intake 2 h before ERCP can be safe and accelerate patients' recovery. METHODS: This prospective, multicenter, randomized controlled trial involved 15 tertiary ERCP centers. A total of 1330 patients were randomized into CFD group (n = 665) and fasting group (n = 665). The CFD group received 400 mL of maltodextrin orally 2 h before ERCP, while the control group abstained from food/water overnight (>6 h) before ERCP. All ERCP procedures were performed using deep sedation with intravenous propofol. The investigators were blinded but not the patients. The primary outcomes included postoperative fatigue and abdominal pain score, and the secondary outcomes included complications and changes in metabolic indicators. The outcomes were analyzed according to a modified intention-to-treat principle. RESULTS: The post-ERCP fatigue scores were significantly lower at 4 h (4.1 ± 2.6 vs. 4.8 ± 2.8, t = 4.23, P <0.001) and 20 h (2.4 ± 2.1 vs. 3.4 ± 2.4, t = 7.94, P <0.001) in the CFD group, with least-squares mean differences of 0.48 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.26-0.71, P <0.001) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.57-0.95, P <0.001), respectively. The 4-h pain scores (2.1 ± 1.7 vs. 2.2 ± 1.7, t = 2.60, P = 0.009, with a least-squares mean difference of 0.21 [95% CI: 0.05-0.37]) and positive urine ketone levels (7.7% [39/509] vs. 15.4% [82/533], χ2 = 15.13, P <0.001) were lower in the CFD group. The CFD group had significantly less cholangitis (2.1% [13/634] vs. 4.0% [26/658], χ2 = 3.99, P = 0.046) but not pancreatitis (5.5% [35/634] vs. 6.5% [43/658], χ2 = 0.59, P = 0.444). Subgroup analysis revealed that CFD reduced the incidence of complications in patients with native papilla (odds ratio [OR]: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.39-0.95, P = 0.028) in the multivariable models. CONCLUSION: Ingesting 400 mL of CFD 2 h before ERCP is safe, with a reduction in post-ERCP fatigue, abdominal pain, and cholangitis during recovery. TRAIL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, No. NCT03075280.

Identification of a novel bile marker clusterin and a public online prediction platform based on deep learning for cholangiocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a highly aggressive malignant tumor, and its diagnosis is still a challenge. This study aimed to identify a novel bile marker for CCA diagnosis based on proteomics and establish a diagnostic model with deep learning. METHODS: A total of 644 subjects (236 CCA and 408 non-CCA) from two independent centers were divided into discovery, cross-validation, and external validation sets for the study. Candidate bile markers were identified by three proteomics data and validated on 635 clinical humoral specimens and 121 tissue specimens. A diagnostic multi-analyte model containing bile and serum biomarkers was established in cross-validation set by deep learning and validated in an independent external cohort. RESULTS: The results of proteomics analysis and clinical specimen verification showed that bile clusterin (CLU) was significantly higher in CCA body fluids. Based on 376 subjects in the cross-validation set, ROC analysis indicated that bile CLU had a satisfactory diagnostic power (AUC: 0.852, sensitivity: 73.6%, specificity: 90.1%). Building on bile CLU and 63 serum markers, deep learning established a diagnostic model incorporating seven factors (CLU, CA19-9, IBIL, GGT, LDL-C, TG, and TBA), which showed a high diagnostic utility (AUC: 0.947, sensitivity: 90.3%, specificity: 84.9%). External validation in an independent cohort (n = 259) resulted in a similar accuracy for the detection of CCA. Finally, for the convenience of operation, a user-friendly prediction platform was built online for CCA. CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest and most comprehensive study combining bile and serum biomarkers to differentiate CCA. This diagnostic model may potentially be used to detect CCA.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Reinfection Rates in Malawi: A Possible Tool to Guide Vaccine Prioritisation and Immunisation Policies.

As the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic continues, reports indicate that the global vaccination rate is still far below the target. Understanding the levels of reinfection may help refocus and inform policymakers on vaccination. This retrospective study in Malawi included individuals and patients who tested for COVID-19 infections via reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rt-PCR) from the data at the Public Health Institute of Malawi (PHIM). We included all data in the national line list from April 2020 to March 2022. Upon review of 47,032 records, 45,486 were included with a reported 82 (0.18) reinfection representing a rate of 0.55 (95% CI: 0.44-0.68) per 100,000 person-days of follow-up. Most reinfections occurred in the first 90 to 200 days following the initial infection, and the median time to reinfection was 175 days (IQR: 150-314), with a range of 90-563 days. The risk of reinfection was highest in the immediate 3 to 6 months following the initial infection and declined substantially after that, and age demonstrated a significant association with reinfection. Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections, a specific endurance of the immunity naturally gained, and the role played by risk factors in reinfections is relevant for identifying strategies to prioritise vaccination.

Saline irrigation for reducing the recurrence of common bile duct stones after lithotripsy: a randomized controlled trial.

Background: Mechanical lithotripsy produces stone fragments that are not easily detected by cholangiography and is a potential cause of recurrence of common bile duct stones (CBDS). This study aims to clarify whether 100 ml saline irrigation after mechanical lithotripsy reduces the recurrent rate of CBDS. Methods: In this randomized controlled trial performed at the Surgical Endoscopy Center, the First Hospital of Lanzhou University between May 10, 2019, and Dec 31, 2020, patients undergoing endoscopic mechanical lithotripsy were randomly assigned to receive saline irrigation (study group) or no irrigation (control group). The saline irrigation was given 100 ml saline pulse irrigation after cholangiography showed no residual stones. Patients were followed up for at least 24 months after endoscopic stone removal to assess the recurrence of CBDS. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03937037). Findings: During the median follow-up period of 35.6 months (interquartile range, 26.0-40.7), 43 of the 180 patients had stone recurrence (24%). The frequency of recurrence of CBD stones was 12.22% in the saline irrigation group and 35.56% in the control group, with a difference of 23.33% between the two groups (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.35%-35.32%, p < 0.001). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses showed that constipation (hazard risk [HR] 2.42; 95% CI, 1.22-4.80, p = 0.012), periampullary diverticulum (PAD) (HR 3.06; 95% CI, 1.62-5.79, p < 0.001), and total to direct bilirubin ratio (HR 1.48; 95% CI, 1.21-1.81, p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for the recurrence of CBDS. Saline irrigation was the only preventive factor for the recurrence of CBDS (HR 0.22; 95% CI, 0.11-0.44, p < 0.001). Interpretation: For patients with CBDS requiring mechanical lithotripsy, 100 ml saline irrigation effectively reduces the recurrent rate of CBDS after endoscopic stone removal. Funding: This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (32160255); Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province (22JR5RA898, 20JR10RA676); Science and Technology Planning Project of Chengguan District in Lanzhou (2020JSCX0043).

Prenatal low-dose methylmercury exposure causes premature neuronal differentiation and autism-like behaviors in a rodent model.

Aberrant neurodevelopment is a core deficit of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Here we ask whether a non-genetic factor, prenatal exposure to the environmental pollutant methylmercury (MeHg), is a contributing factor in ASD onset. We showed that adult mice prenatally exposed to non-apoptotic MeHg exhibited key ASD characteristics, including impaired communication, reduced sociability, and increased restrictive repetitive behaviors, whereas in the embryonic cortex, prenatal MeHg exposure caused premature neuronal differentiation. Further single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) analysis disclosed that prenatal exposure to MeHg resulted in cortical radial glial precursors (RGPs) favoring asymmetric differentiation to directly generate cortical neurons, omitting the intermediate progenitor stage. In addition, MeHg exposure in cultured RGPs increased CREB phosphorylation and enhanced the interaction between CREB and CREB binding protein (CBP). Intriguingly, metformin, an FDA-approved drug, can reverse MeHg-induced premature neuronal differentiation via CREB/CBP repulsion. These findings provide insights into ASD etiology, its underlying mechanism, and a potential therapeutic strategy.

Bile Duct Stone Size May Influence the Efficacy of Endoscopic Sphincterotomy With or Without Large-Balloon Dilation: A Meta-Analysis.

Purpose: Endoscopic sphincterotomy (EPT) combined with endoscopic papillary large balloon dilatation (EPBD) are used to remove large common bile duct (CBD) stones. This meta-analysis compared the efficacy and safety of EPT+EPBD versus EPT alone in the removal of stones based on stone size. Materials and Methods: Twenty-two studies (11 randomized control trials [RCTs] and 11 non-RCTs) were identified and reviewed based on searches of Embase, PubMed, and Web of Science. CBD stone's size was measured with reference to diameter of the duodenoscope (13 mm) and size of the large dilatation balloon (17 mm) seen on cholangiogram. The stone clearance rate, required mechanical lithotripsy (ML), procedure time, and pancreatitis were compared according to the mean stone size, and further divided into Groups A (small) 10-13 mm, B (medium) 13-17 mm, and C (large) >17 mm. Results: Subgroup analysis according to CBD stone size showed EPT + EPBD had a significantly better initial stone clearance rate than EPT in Groups B (odds ratio [OR] = 2.39, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-4.77) and C (OR = 3.05, 95% CI: 1.86-5.03), but not for Group A (OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 0.90-2.21). EPT+EPBD also required significantly less ML than EPT in Groups B (OR = 0.34, 95% CI: 0.15-0.77) and C (OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.13-0.73). EPT+EPBD had significantly shorter procedure time than EPT in Group B (standardized mean difference = -1.20, 95% CI: -2.08 to 0.32). In meta-regression analysis, Group B had a better OR in initial stone clearance rate and less ML usage rate correlation with the size of CBD stone, but not for Group C with larger stones. Conclusions: EPT+EPBD had a significantly better initial stone clearance rate, and required less ML with shorter procedure time than EPT for removing medium-sized CBD stones, but the efficacy was limited to large CBD stones. The study protocol and trial registration had been registered in PROSPERO (Registration No. CRD42020171689).

Tubular ß-catenin alleviates mitochondrial dysfunction and cell death in acute kidney injury.

Mitochondria take part in a network of intracellular processes that regulate homeostasis. Defects in mitochondrial function are key pathophysiological changes during AKI. Although Wnt/ß-catenin signaling mediates mitochondrial dysfunction in chronic kidney fibrosis, little is known of the influence of ß-catenin on mitochondrial function in AKI. To decipher this interaction, we generated an inducible mouse model of tubule-specific ß-catenin overexpression (TubCat), and a model of tubule-specific ß-catenin depletion (TubcatKO), and induced septic AKI in these mice with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and aseptic AKI with bilateral ischemia-reperfusion. In both AKI models, tubular ß-catenin stabilization in TubCat animals significantly reduced BUN/serum creatinine, tubular damage (NGAL-positive tubules), apoptosis (TUNEL-positive cells) and necroptosis (phosphorylation of MLKL and RIP3) through activating AKT phosphorylation and p53 suppression; enhanced mitochondrial biogenesis (increased PGC-1α and NRF1) and restored mitochondrial mass (increased TIM23) to re-establish mitochondrial homeostasis (increased fusion markers OPA1, MFN2, and decreased fission protein DRP1) through the FOXO3/PGC-1α signaling cascade. Conversely, kidney function loss and histological damage, tubular cell death, and mitochondrial dysfunction were all aggravated in TubCatKO mice. Mechanistically, ß-catenin transfection maintained mitochondrial mass and activated PGC-1α via FOXO3 in LPS-exposed HK-2 cells. Collectively, these findings provide evidence that tubular ß-catenin mitigates cell death and restores mitochondrial homeostasis in AKI through the common mechanisms associated with activation of AKT/p53 and FOXO3/PGC-1α signaling pathways.

Usability Testing of the Kidney Score Platform to Enhance Communication About Kidney Disease in Primary Care Settings: Qualitative Think-Aloud Study.

BACKGROUND: Patient awareness of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is low in part due to suboptimal testing for CKD among those at risk and lack of discussions about kidney disease between patients and clinicians. To bridge these gaps, the National Kidney Foundation developed the Kidney Score Platform, which is a web-based series of tools that includes resources for health care professionals as well as an interactive, dynamic patient-facing component that includes a brief questionnaire about risk factors for kidney disease, individualized assessment of risk for developing CKD, and self-management tools to manage one's kidney disease. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to perform usability testing of the patient component of the Kidney Score platform among veterans with and at risk for kidney disease and among clinicians working as primary care providers in Veterans Affairs administration. METHODS: Think-aloud exercises were conducted, during which participants (veterans and clinicians) engaged with the platform while verbalizing their thoughts and making their perceptions, reasonings, and decision points explicit. A usability facilitator observed participants' behaviors and probed selectively to clarify their comprehension of the tool's instructions, content, and overall functionality. Thematic analysis on the audio-recording transcripts was performed, focusing on positive attributes, negative comments, and areas that required facilitator involvement. RESULTS: Veterans (N=18) were 78% (14/18) male with a mean age of 58.1 years. Two-thirds (12/18) were of non-White race/ethnicity, 28% (5/18) had laboratory evidence of CKD without a formal diagnosis, and 50% (9/18) carried a diagnosis of hypertension or diabetes. Clinicians (N=19) were 29% (5/17) male, 30% (5/17) of non-White race/ethnicity, and had a mean of 17 (range 4-32) years of experience. Veterans and clinicians easily navigated the online tool and appreciated the personalized results page as well as the inclusion of infographics to deliver key educational messages. Three major themes related to content and communication about risk for CKD emerged from the think-aloud exercises: (1) tension between lay and medical terminology when discussing kidney disease and diagnostic tests, (2) importance of linking general information to concrete self-management actions, and (3) usefulness of the tool as an adjunct to the office visit to prepare for patient-clinician communication. Importantly, these themes were consistent among interviews involving both veterans and clinicians. CONCLUSIONS: Veterans and clinicians both thought that the Kidney Score Platform would successfully promote communication and discussion about kidney disease in primary care settings. Tension between using medical terminology that is used regularly by clinicians versus lay terminology to promote CKD awareness was a key challenge, and knowledge of this can inform the development of future CKD educational materials.

A novel machine learning model and a public online prediction platform for prediction of post-ERCP-cholecystitis (PEC).

Background: Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is an established treatment for common bile duct (CBD) stones. Post- ERCP cholecystitis (PEC) is a known complication of such procedure and there are no effective models and clinical applicable tools for PEC prediction. Methods: A random forest (RF) machine learning model was developed to predict PEC. Eligible patients at The First Hospital of Lanzhou University in China with common bile duct (CBD) stones and gallbladders in-situ were enrolled from 2010 to 2019. Logistic regression analysis was used to compare the predictive discrimination and accuracy values based on receiver operation characteristics (ROC) curve and decision and clinical impact curve. The RF model was further validated by another 117 patients. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04234126. Findings: A total of 1117 patients were enrolled (90 PEC, 8.06%) to build the predictive model for PEC. The RF method identified white blood cell (WBC) count, endoscopic papillary balloon dilatation (EPBD), increase in WBC, residual CBD stones after ERCP, serum amylase levels, and mechanical lithotripsy as the top six predictive factors and has a sensitivity of 0.822, specificity of 0.853 and accuracy of 0.855, with the area under curve (AUC) value of 0.890. A separate logistic regression prediction model was built with sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of 0.811, 0.791, and 0.864, respectively. An additional 117 patients (11 PEC, 9.40%) were used to validate the RF model, with an AUC of 0.889 compared to an AUC of 0.884 with the logistic regression model. Interpretation: The results suggest that the proposed RF model based on the top six PEC risk factors could be a promising tool to predict the occurrence of PEC.

Using social networks to improve team transition prediction in professional sports.

We examine whether social data can be used to predict how members of Major League Baseball (MLB) and members of the National Basketball Association (NBA) transition between teams during their career. We find that incorporating social data into various machine learning algorithms substantially improves the algorithms' ability to correctly determine these transitions in the NBA but only marginally in MLB. We also measure the extent to which player performance and team fitness data can be used to predict transitions between teams. This data, however, only slightly improves our predictions for players for both basketball and baseball players. We also consider whether social, performance, and team fitness data can be used to infer past transitions. Here we find that social data significantly improves our inference accuracy in both the NBA and MLB but player performance and team fitness data again does little to improve this score.