ABSTRACT
BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams in September 2021 to project the impact of expanding vaccine administration to children 5-11 years old on anticipated COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. MethodsNine modeling teams contributed state- and national-level projections for weekly counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States for the period September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of: 1) presence vs. absence of vaccination of children ages 5-11 years starting on November 1, 2021; and 2) continued dominance of the Delta variant vs. emergence of a hypothetical more transmissible variant on November 15, 2021. Individual team projections were combined using linear pooling. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated by meta-analysis approaches. FindingsAbsent a new variant, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among all ages were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. Under a set of specific assumptions, models projected that vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios where children were not vaccinated. This projected effect of vaccinating children 5-11 years old increased in the presence of a more transmissible variant, assuming no change in vaccine effectiveness by variant. Larger relative reductions in cumulative cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were observed for children than for the entire U.S. population. Substantial state-level variation was projected in epidemic trajectories, vaccine benefits, and variant impacts. ConclusionsResults from this multi-model aggregation study suggest that, under a specific set of scenario assumptions, expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits to this age group and indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants.
ABSTRACT
What is already known about this topic?The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant is expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in July--December 2021. What is added by this report?Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant. These resurgences, which have now been observed in most states, were projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. Reaching higher vaccine coverage in July--December 2021 reduces the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially. The expected impact of the outbreak is largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. What are the implications for public health practice?Renewed efforts to increase vaccination uptake are critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower current vaccination coverage. Reaching higher vaccination goals in the coming months can potentially avert 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths and improve the ability to safely resume social contacts, and educational and business activities. Continued or renewed non-pharmaceutical interventions, including masking, can also help limit transmission, particularly as schools and businesses reopen.
ABSTRACT
Pyrazinamide (PZA) is a key antibiotic in current anti-tuberculosis regimens. Although the WHO has stressed the urgent need to obtain data on PZA resistance, in high tuberculosis burden countries, little is known about the level of PZA resistance, the genetic basis of such resistance or its link with Mycobacterium tuberculosis families. In this context, this study assessed PZA resistance through the molecular analysis of 260 Vietnamese M. tuberculosis isolates. First-line drug susceptibility testing, pncA gene sequencing, spoligotyping and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeats (MIRU-VNTR) typing were performed. Overall, the pncA mutation frequency was 38.1% (99 out of 260 isolates) but was higher than 72% (89 out of 123 isolates) in multidrug and quadruple-drug resistant isolates. Many different pncA mutations (71 types) were detected, of which 55 have been previously described and 50 were linked to PZA resistance. Among the 16 novel mutations, 14 are likely to be linked to PZA resistance because of their mutation types or codon positions. Genotype analysis revealed that PZA resistance can emerge in any M. tuberculosis cluster or family, although the mutation frequency was the highest in Beijing family isolates (47.7%, 62 out of 130 isolates). These data highlight the high rate of PZA resistance-associated mutations in M. tuberculosis clinical isolates in Vietnam and bring into question the use of PZA for current and future treatment regimens of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis without PZA resistance testing.