A comparison of keratoconus progression following collagen cross-linkage using standard or personalised keratometry thresholds.

OBJECTIVE: To define how estimates of keratoconus progression following collagen cross-linking (CXL) vary according to the parameter selected to measure corneal shape. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We estimated progression following CXL in 1677 eyes. We compared standard definitions of keratoconus progression based on published thresholds for Kmax, front K2, or back K2, or progression of any two of these three parameters, with the option of an increased threshold for Kmax values ≥ 55D. As corneal thickness reduces unpredictably after CXL, it was excluded from the principal analysis. We then repeated the analysis using novel adaptive estimates of progression for Kmax, front K2, or back K2, developed separately using 6463 paired readings from keratoconus eyes, with a variation of the Bland-Altman method to determine the 95% regression-based limits of agreement (LoA). We created Kaplan-Meier survival plots for both standard and adaptive thresholds. The primary outcome was progression five years after a baseline visit 9-15 months following CXL. RESULTS: Progression rates were 8% with a standard (≥ 1.5D) threshold for K2 or 6% with the static multi-parameter definition. With a ≥ 1D threshold for Kmax, the progression was significantly higher at 29%. With adaptive Kmax or K2, the progression rates were similar (20%) but less than with the adaptive multi-parameter method (22%). CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of keratoconus progression following CXL vary widely according to the reference criteria. Using adaptive thresholds (LoA) to define the repeatability of keratometry gives estimates for progression that are markedly higher than with the standard multi-parameter method.

Personalized Model to Predict Keratoconus Progression From Demographic, Topographic, and Genetic Data.

PURPOSE: To generate a prognostic model to predict keratoconus progression to corneal crosslinking (CXL). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We recruited 5025 patients (9341 eyes) with early keratoconus between January 2011 and November 2020. Genetic data from 926 patients were available. We investigated both keratometry or CXL as end points for progression and used the Royston-Parmar method on the proportional hazards scale to generate a prognostic model. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for each significant covariate, with explained variation and discrimination, and performed internal-external cross validation by geographic regions. RESULTS: After exclusions, model fitting comprised 8701 eyes, of which 3232 underwent CXL. For early keratoconus, CXL provided a more robust prognostic model than keratometric progression. The final model explained 33% of the variation in time to event: age HR (95% CI) 0.9 (0.90-0.91), maximum anterior keratometry 1.08 (1.07-1.09), and minimum corneal thickness 0.95 (0.93-0.96) as significant covariates. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with keratoconus (n=28) did not significantly contribute to the model. The predicted time-to-event curves closely followed the observed curves during internal-external validation. Differences in discrimination between geographic regions was low, suggesting the model maintained its predictive ability. CONCLUSIONS: A prognostic model to predict keratoconus progression could aid patient empowerment, triage, and service provision. Age at presentation is the most significant predictor of progression risk. Candidate SNPs associated with keratoconus do not contribute to progression risk.