Trends in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Canada: Variation by Migration and Temporal Factors, 2001-2018.

Background: Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of death in Canada, but how the major cardiovascular risk factors vary across ethnicity and immigration status has yet to be examined. Methods: Using data from the Canadian Community Health Surveys, national trends in health conditions (hypertension, diabetes, high blood cholesterol level, and obesity) and health behaviours (smoking, activity levels, and alcohol consumption) were estimated for the period 2001-2018. In this cross-sectional study, the trends were then compared across sex, age, ethnicity, and immigration status. Results: A total of 1,065,391 respondents were examined, for the period 2001-2018. During the study period, the prevalence of the following risk factors increased in Canada over time, as follows: diabetes by 54.5%; hypertension by 23.4%; and obesity by 32.3%. For health behaviours, smoking prevalence decreased overall, especially in racialized populations. Heavy drinking was most prevalent for nonracialized and non-Indigenous Canadian-born populations, and was of lowest prevalence among racialized immigrants. Physical inactivity was most prevalent for racialized immigrant populations. The prevalence of self-reported heart disease decreased by 21.0%, except for racialized established immigrants (≥ 10 years since immigration to Canada), who had a 4.2% increase. Conclusions: During this study period, decreases occurred in the prevalences of smoking and physical inactivity, along with increases in obesity, diabetes, and hypertension prevalences. By migration-group status, established immigrants in Canada had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors compared to that among their Canadian-born counterparts. Migration gaps should be considered in future interventions targeted at reducing these cardiovascular risk factors in Canada.

Contexte: Les maladies cardiovasculaires sont une cause majeure de décès au Canada, mais la manière dont les principaux facteurs de risque cardiovasculaire varient en fonction de l'origine ethnique et du statut d'immigration n'a encore jamais été évaluée. Méthodologie: Des tendances nationales dans certains problèmes de santé (hypertension, diabète, hypercholestérolémie et obésité) et certains comportements liés à la santé (tabagisme, niveaux d'activité et consommation d'alcool) ont été dégagées à partir des données de l'Enquête sur la santé dans les collectivités canadiennes pour la période de 2001 à 2018. Ces tendances ont ensuite été comparées en fonction du sexe, de l'âge, de l'origine ethnique et du statut d'immigration dans le cadre de la présente étude transversale. Résultats: Au total, 1 065 391 répondants ont été examinés pour la période de 2001 à 2018. Durant la période de l'étude, la prévalence des facteurs de risque suivants a graduellement augmenté au Canada : diabète, de 54,5 %; hypertension, de 23,4 %; obésité, de 32,3 %. Dans le cas des comportements liés à la santé, la prévalence du tabagisme a globalement diminué, surtout dans les populations racialisées. La consommation excessive d'alcool était plus fréquente dans les populations non racialisées et non autochtones d'origine canadienne, et moins fréquente chez les immigrants racialisés. L'inactivité physique était particulièrement répandue dans les populations immigrantes racialisées. La prévalence des maladies cardiaques auto-déclarées a diminué de 21,0 %, sauf chez les immigrants établis racialisés (≥ 10 ans depuis l'arrivée au Canada), qui a connu une hausse de 4,2 %. Conclusions: Durant la période de l'étude, la prévalence du tabagisme et de l'inactivité physique a diminué tandis que celle de l'obésité, du diabète et de l'hypertension a augmenté. D'après le statut du groupe de migration, la prévalence des facteurs de risque de maladies cardiovasculaires était plus élevée chez les immigrants établis au Canada que chez leurs homologues nés au Canada. Il convient de prendre en considération les différences liées à la migration dans les interventions futures visant à réduire ces facteurs de risque cardiovasculaire au Canada.

Wastewater-based surveillance of SARS-CoV-2: Short-term projection (forecasting), smoothing and outlier identification using Bayesian smoothing.

BACKGROUND: Day-to-day variation in the measurement of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater can challenge public health interpretation. We assessed a Bayesian smoothing and forecasting method previously used for surveillance and short-term projection of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. METHODS: SARS-CoV-2 viral measurement from the sewershed in Ottawa, Canada, sampled at the municipal wastewater treatment plant from July 1, 2020, to February 15, 2022, was used to assess and internally validate measurement averaging and prediction. External validation was performed using viral measurement data from influent wastewater samples from 15 wastewater treatment plants and municipalities across Ontario. RESULTS: Plots of SARS-CoV-2 viral measurement over time using Bayesian smoothing visually represented distinct COVID-19 "waves" described by case and hospitalization data in both initial (Ottawa) and external validation in 15 Ontario communities. The time-varying growth rate of viral measurement in wastewater samples approximated the growth rate observed for cases and hospitalization. One-week predicted viral measurement approximated the observed viral measurement throughout the assessment period from December 23, 2020, to August 8, 2022. An uncalibrated model showed underprediction during rapid increases in viral measurement (positive growth) and overprediction during rapid decreases. After recalibration, the model showed a close approximation between observed and predicted estimates. CONCLUSION: Bayesian smoothing of wastewater surveillance data of SARS-CoV-2 allows for accurate estimates of COVID-19 growth rates and one- and two-week forecasting of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater for 16 municipalities in Ontario, Canada. Further assessment is warranted in other communities representing different sewersheds and environmental conditions.

Exploring perceptions of online calculators for identifying community-dwelling older people at risk of dying: A qualitative study.

Objectives: This study aimed to assess the acceptability, value, and perceived barriers of using electronic risk calculators for predicting and communicating the risk of death in community-dwelling older adults. Methods: One focus group and eight interviews were conducted with 16 participants with experience caring for patients or family members at end of life. A prototype mortality risk tool was used to anchor discussions. Data were analysed using a qualitative content analysis approach. Results: Five themes emerged: acceptability, communication, barriers to use, broadening the circle of care, and tool limitations. Participants found the tool helpful for preparation, planning, and providing care, but disagreed on its community availability. Personalized risk estimates were valued for facilitating early goals of care conversations and normalizing discussions about death. However, concerns were raised about the tool's interpretation for individuals with different language, cultural, or educational backgrounds. Conclusions: While electronic risk calculators were found to be acceptable, balancing autonomy with varying preferences for receiving the information and potential need for support is crucial. Innovation: Providing patient-oriented life-expectancy estimates can enhance decisional capacity and facilitate shared decision-making between patients, their families, and healthcare professionals. Further research is needed to explore effective communication of personalized risk tools and additional benefits, harms, and barriers to implementation.

The association between alcohol retail access and health care visits attributable to alcohol for individuals with and without a history of alcohol-related health-care use.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol retail access is associated with alcohol use and related harms. This study measured whether this association differs for people with and without heavy and disordered patterns of alcohol use. DESIGN: The study used a repeated cross-sectional analysis of health administrative databases. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS/CASES: All residents of Ontario, Canada aged 10-105 years with universal health coverage (n = 10 677 604 in 2013) were included in the analysis. MEASUREMENTS: Quarterly rates of emergency department (ED) and outpatient visits attributable to alcohol in 464 geographic regions between 2013 and 2019 were measured. Quarterly off-premises alcohol retail access scores were calculated (average drive to the closest seven stores) for each geographic region. Mixed-effect linear regression models adjusted for area-level socio-demographic covariates were used to examine associations between deciles of alcohol retail access and health-care visits attributable to alcohol. Stratified analyses were run for individuals with and without prior alcohol-attributable health-care use in the past 2 years. FINDINGS: We included 437 707 ED visits and 505 271 outpatient visits attributable to alcohol. After adjustment, rates of ED visits were 39% higher [rate ratio (RR) = 1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.20-1.61] and rates of outpatient visits were 49% higher (RR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.26-1.75) in the highest versus lowest decile of alcohol access. There was a positive association between alcohol access and outpatient visits attributable to alcohol for individuals without prior health-care attributable to alcohol (RR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.39-1.95 for the highest to lowest decile of alcohol access) but not for individuals with prior health-care attributable to alcohol (RR = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.90-1.30). There was a positive association between alcohol access and ED visits attributable to alcohol for individuals with and without prior health-care for alcohol for ED visits. CONCLUSION: In Ontario, Canada, greater alcohol retail access appears to be associated with higher rates of emergency department (ED) and outpatient health-care visits attributable to alcohol. Individuals without prior health-care for alcohol may be more susceptible to greater alcohol retail access for outpatient but not ED visits attributable to alcohol.

The equitable impact of sugary drink taxation structures on sugary drink consumption among Canadians: a modelling study using the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition.

OBJECTIVE: Estimate the impact of 20 % flat-rate and tiered sugary drink tax structures on the consumption of sugary drinks, sugar-sweetened beverages and 100 % juice by age, sex and socio-economic position. DESIGN: We modelled the impact of price changes - for each tax structure - on the demand for sugary drinks by applying own- and cross-price elasticities to self-report sugary drink consumption measured using single-day 24-h dietary recalls from the cross-sectional, nationally representative 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition. For both 20 % flat-rate and tiered sugary drink tax scenarios, we used linear regression to estimate differences in mean energy intake and proportion of energy intake from sugary drinks by age, sex, education, food security and income. SETTING: Canada. PARTICIPANTS: 19 742 respondents aged 2 and over. RESULTS: In the 20 % flat-rate scenario, we estimated mean energy intake and proportion of daily energy intake from sugary drinks on a given day would be reduced by 29 kcal/d (95 % UI: 18, 41) and 1·3 % (95 % UI: 0·8, 1·8), respectively. Similarly, in the tiered tax scenario, additional small, but meaningful reductions were estimated in mean energy intake (40 kcal/d, 95 % UI: 24, 55) and proportion of daily energy intake (1·8 %, 95 % UI: 1·1, 2·5). Both tax structures reduced, but did not eliminate, inequities in mean energy intake from sugary drinks despite larger consumption reductions in children/adolescents, males and individuals with lower education, food security and income. CONCLUSIONS: Sugary drink taxation, including the additional benefit of taxing 100 % juice, could reduce overall and inequities in mean energy intake from sugary drinks in Canada.

Ascertaining the Francophone population in Ontario: validating the language variable in health data.

BACKGROUND: Language barriers can impact health care and outcomes. Valid and reliable language data is central to studying health inequalities in linguistic minorities. In Canada, language variables are available in administrative health databases; however, the validity of these variables has not been studied. This study assessed concordance between language variables from administrative health databases and language variables from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) to identify Francophones in Ontario. METHODS: An Ontario combined sample of CCHS cycles from 2000 to 2012 (from participants who consented to link their data) was individually linked to three administrative databases (home care, long-term care [LTC], and mental health admissions). In total, 27,111 respondents had at least one encounter in one of the three databases. Language spoken at home (LOSH) and first official language spoken (FOLS) from CCHS were used as reference standards to assess their concordance with the language variables in administrative health databases, using the Cohen kappa, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive values (NPV). RESULTS: Language variables from home care and LTC databases had the highest agreement with LOSH (kappa = 0.76 [95%CI, 0.735-0.793] and 0.75 [95%CI, 0.70-0.80], respectively) and FOLS (kappa = 0.66 for both). Sensitivity was higher with LOSH as the reference standard (75.5% [95%CI, 71.6-79.0] and 74.2% [95%CI, 67.3-80.1] for home care and LTC, respectively). With FOLS as the reference standard, the language variables in both data sources had modest sensitivity (53.1% [95%CI, 49.8-56.4] and 54.1% [95%CI, 48.3-59.7] in home care and LTC, respectively) but very high specificity (99.8% [95%CI, 99.7-99.9] and 99.6% [95%CI, 99.4-99.8]) and predictive values. The language variable from mental health admissions had poor agreement with all language variables in the CCHS. CONCLUSIONS: Language variables in home care and LTC health databases were most consistent with the language often spoken at home. Studies using language variables from administrative data can use the sensitivity and specificity reported from this study to gauge the level of mis-ascertainment error and the resulting bias.

Estimated mortality risk and use of palliative care services among home care clients during the last 6 months of life: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In Canada, only 15% of patients requiring palliative care receive such services in the year before death. We describe health care utilization patterns among home care users in their last 6 months of life to inform care planning for older people with varying mortality risks and evolving care needs as they decline. METHODS: Using population health administrative data from Ontario, we performed a retrospective cohort study involving home care clients aged 50 years and older who received at least 1 interRAI (Resident Assessment Instrument) Home Care assessment between April 2018 and September 2019. We report the proportion of clients who used acute care, long-term care, and palliative home care services within 6 months of their assessment, stratified by their predicted 6-month mortality risk using a prognostic tool called the Risk Evaluation for Support: Predictions for Elder-life in their Communities Tool (RESPECT) and vital status. RESULTS: The cohort included 247 377 adults, 11.9% of whom died within 6 months of an assessment. Among decedents, 50.6% of those with a RESPECT-estimated median survival of fewer than 3 months received at least 1 nonphysician palliative home care visit before death. This proportion declined to 38.7% and 29.5% among decedents with an estimated median survival between 3 and 6 months and between 6 and 12 months, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Many older adults in Ontario do not receive any palliative home care before death. Prognostic tools such as RESPECT may improve recognition of reduced life expectancies and palliative care needs of individuals in their final years of life.

Using Exploratory Structural Equation Modeling to Examine Caregiver Distress and Its Contributors.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and test the direct and indirect associations between caregiver distress and its many contributing factors and covariates. DESIGN: Analysis using data from a national, cross-sectional survey of Canadian caregivers. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 6502 respondents of the 2012 General Social Survey-Caregiving and Care-receiving who self-identified as a caregiver. METHODS: We used exploratory structural equation modeling to achieve our aims. Based on literature review, we hypothesized a structural model of 5 caregiving factors that contribute to distress: caregiving burden, caregiving network and support, disruptions of family and social life, positive emotional experiences, and caregiving history. Survey items hypothesized to measure each latent factor were modeled using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). After establishing a well-fit EFA model, structural equation modeling was performed to examine the relationships between caregiving factors and caregiver distress while controlling for covariates such as caregiver's and care-recipient's sociodemographic characteristics and kinship. RESULTS: EFA established a well-fit model that represented caregiver distress and its 5 contributing factors as hypothesized. Although all 5 had significant effects on caregiver distress, disruptions of family and social life contributed the most (ß = 0.462), almost 3 times that of caregiving burden (ß = 0.162). Positive emotional experiences also substantially reduced distress (ß = -0.310). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Understanding the multifaceted nature of caregiver distress is crucial for developing effective strategies to support caregivers. In addition to reducing caregiving burden, having flexible resources and policies to minimize disruptions to caregivers' families (eg, flexible work policies; family-oriented education, training, and counseling) and enhance the positive aspects of caregiving may more effectively reduce distress.

A study protocol for a predictive model to assess population-based avoidable hospitalization risk: Avoidable Hospitalization Population Risk Prediction Tool (AvHPoRT).

INTRODUCTION: Avoidable hospitalizations are considered preventable given effective and timely primary care management and are an important indicator of health system performance. The ability to predict avoidable hospitalizations at the population level represents a significant advantage for health system decision-makers that could facilitate proactive intervention for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs). The aim of this study is to develop and validate the Avoidable Hospitalization Population Risk Tool (AvHPoRT) that will predict the 5-year risk of first avoidable hospitalization for seven ACSCs using self-reported, routinely collected population health survey data. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The derivation cohort will consist of respondents to the first 3 cycles (2000/01, 2003/04, 2005/06) of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) who are 18-74 years of age at survey administration and a hold-out data set will be used for external validation. Outcome information on avoidable hospitalizations for 5 years following the CCHS interview will be assessed through data linkage to the Discharge Abstract Database (1999/2000-2017/2018) for an estimated sample size of 394,600. Candidate predictor variables will include demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, self-perceived health measures, health behaviors, chronic conditions, and area-based measures. Sex-specific algorithms will be developed using Weibull accelerated failure time survival models. The model will be validated both using split set cross-validation and external temporal validation split using cycles 2000-2006 compared to 2007-2012. We will assess measures of overall predictive performance (Nagelkerke R2), calibration (calibration plots), and discrimination (Harrell's concordance statistic). Development of the model will be informed by the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the University of Toronto Research Ethics Board. The predictive algorithm and findings from this work will be disseminated at scientific meetings and in peer-reviewed publications.

A comprehensive, open-source data model for wastewater-based epidemiology.

The recent SARS-COV-2 pandemic has sparked the adoption of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) as a low-cost way to monitor the health of populations. In parallel, the pandemic has encouraged researchers to openly share their data to serve the public better and accelerate science. However, environmental surveillance data are highly dependent on context and are difficult to interpret meaningfully across sites. This paper presents the second iteration of the Public Health Environmental Surveillance Open Data Model (PHES-ODM), an open-source dictionary and set of data tools to enhance the interoperability of environmental surveillance data and enable the storage of contextual (meta)data. The data model describes how to store environmental surveillance program data, metadata about measurements taken on various specimens (water, air, surfaces, sites, populations) and data about measurement protocols. The model provides software tools that support the collection and use of PHES-ODM formatted data, including performing PCR calculations and data validation, recording data into input templates, generating wide tables for analysis, and producing SQL database definitions. Fully open-source and already adopted by institutions in Canada, the European Union, and other countries, the PHES-ODM provides a path forward for creating robust, interoperable, open datasets for environmental public health surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 and beyond.

Development and Evaluation of the Dietary Pattern Calculator (DiPaC) for Personalized Assessment and Feedback.

This study aimed to develop and validate a diet assessment screener - the Dietary Pattern Calculator (DiPaC). A scoping review identified currently available short diet quality assessment tools. Twenty-one articles covering 19 unique tools were included. The current tools mainly focused on individual nutrients or food groups or were developed for a specific population, and few ascertained overall dietary patterns. The 24-hour dietary recalls from the nationally representative Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS)-Nutrition 2015 (n = 13,958) were used to derive and validate a personalized dietary pattern informed by the scoping review using weighted partial least squares. The dominant dietary pattern in CCHS-Nutrition 2015 was characterized by high consumption of fast foods, carbonated drinks, and salty snacks and low consumption of whole fruits, orange vegetables, other vegetables and juices, whole grains, dark green vegetables, legumes, and soy. The dietary pattern assessment was used to create and evaluate DiPaC following an agile and user-centred research and development approach. DiPaC, which demonstrated high validity and intermediate reliability (internal consistency = 0.47-0.51), is publicly available at https://www.projectbiglife.ca/. DiPaC can be used by the public, clinicians, and researchers for quick and robust assessment of diet quality, providing immediate feedback with the advantage of being easy to implement.

Prevalence and patterns of multimorbidity among linguistic groups of patients receiving home care in Ontario: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have demonstrated the negative impact of language barriers on access, quality, and safety of healthcare, which can lead to health disparities in linguistic minorities. As the population ages, those with multiple chronic diseases will require increasing levels of home care and long-term services. This study described the levels of multimorbidity among recipients of home care in Ontario, Canada by linguistic group. METHODS: Population-based retrospective cohort of 510,685 adults receiving home care between April 1, 2010, to March 31, 2018, in Ontario, Canada. We estimated and compared prevalence and characteristics of multimorbidity (2 or more chronic diseases) across linguistic groups (Francophones, Anglophones, Allophones). The most common combinations and clustering of chronic diseases were examined. Logistic regression models were used to explore the main predictors of 'severe' multimorbidity (defined as the presence of five or more chronic diseases). RESULTS: The proportion of home care recipients with multimorbidity and severe multimorbidity was 92% and 44%, respectively. The prevalence of multimorbidity was slightly higher among Allophones (93.6%) than among Anglophones (91.8%) and Francophones (92.4%). However, Francophones had higher rates of cardiovascular and respiratory disease (64.9%) when compared to Anglophones (60.2%) and Allophones (61.5%), while Anglophones had higher rates of cancer (34.2%) when compared to Francophones (25.2%) and Allophones (24.3%). Relative to Anglophones, Allophones were more likely to have severe multimorbidity (adjusted OR = 1.04, [95% CI: 1.02-1.06]). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of multimorbidity among Ontarians receiving home care services is high; especially for whose primary language is a language other than English or French (i.e., Allophones). Understanding differences in the prevalence and characteristics of multimorbidity across linguistic groups will help tailor healthcare services to the unique needs of patients living in minority linguistic situations.

Cannabis-Involved Traffic Injury Emergency Department Visits After Cannabis Legalization and Commercialization.

Importance: The impact of nonmedical cannabis legalization on traffic injuries and cannabis involvement in traffic injuries is unclear. Objective: To examine changes in the number and characteristics of cannabis-involved traffic injury emergency department (ED) visits from before to after legalization and subsequent commercialization (ie, increased retail store and product availability) of cannabis in Ontario, Canada. Design, Setting, and Participants: This repeated cross-sectional study examined changes in cannabis- and alcohol-involved traffic injury ED visits in Ontario, Canada, during 3 time periods: prelegalization (January 2010-September 2018), legalization with product and retail store restrictions (October 2018-February 2020), and commercialization with new products and expanded number of stores, which coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020-December 2021). All individuals aged 16 years and older eligible for Ontario's Universal Health Coverage were included. Season- and time-adjusted quasi-Poisson models were used to generate rate ratios with 95% CIs. Data were analyzed from March to April 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Quarterly counts of cannabis-involved ED visits for traffic injury. Results: There were 947 604 traffic injury ED visits, of which 426 (0.04%) had documented cannabis involvement and 7564 (0.8%) had documented alcohol involvement. Of the 418 individuals with documented cannabis involvement, 330 (78.9%) were male, 109 (25.6%) were aged 16 to 21 years (mean [SD] age at visit, 30.6 [12.0] years), and 113 (27.0%) had an ED visit or hospitalization for substance use in the 2 years before their traffic injury ED visit. Annual rates of cannabis-involved traffic injury ED visits increased 475.3% over the study period (0.18 visits per 1000 total motor vehicle collisions in 2010 to 1.01 in 2021). Over the same period, alcohol-involved traffic injury ED visits increased by 9.4% (8.03 in 2010 to 8.79 per 1000 traffic injury ED visits in 2021). Legalization with restrictions was associated with a 94% increase in the quarterly rate of cannabis involvement in traffic injury ED visits relative to prelegalization (adjusted rate ratio [aRR], 1.94; 95% CI, 1.37-2.75). Commercialization/COVID-19 was associated with a greater increase of 223% in rates (aRR, 3.23; 95% CI, 2.42-4.33). After adjusting for time trends before legalization, only commercialization/COVID-19 was associated with increased rates. Male sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.38; 95% CI, 2.66-4.29), living in the lowest-income neighborhood (aOR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.39-2.67), being aged 19 to 21 years (aOR, 4.67; 95% CI, 3.27-6.67), and having a prior cannabis-related ED visit (aOR, 8.03; 95% CI, 5.85-11.02) were all positively associated with cannabis involvement during a traffic injury ED visit. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found large increases in cannabis involvement in ED visits for traffic injury over time, which may have accelerated following nonmedical cannabis commercialization. Although the frequency of visits was rare, they may reflect broader changes in cannabis-impaired driving. Greater prevention efforts, including targeted education and policy measures, in regions with legal cannabis are indicated.

Physician home visits to rostered patients during their last year of life: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Physician home visits are associated with better health outcomes, yet most patients near the end of life never receive such a visit. Our objectives were to describe the receipt of physician home visits during the last year of life after a referral to home care - an indication that the patient can no longer live independently - and to measure associations between patient characteristics and receipt of a home visit. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked population-based health administrative databases housed at ICES. We identified adult (aged ≥ 18 yr) decedents in Ontario who died between Mar. 31, 2013, and Mar. 31, 2018, who were receiving primary care and were referred to publicly funded home care services. We described the provision of physician home visits, office visits and telephone management. We used multinomial logistic regression to calculate the odds of receiving home visits from a rostered primary care physician, controlling for referral during the last year of life, age, sex, income quintile, rurality, recent immigrant status, referral by rostered physician, referral during hospital stay, number of chronic conditions and disease trajectory based on the cause of death. RESULTS: Of the 58 753 decedents referred in their last year of life, 3125 (5.3%) received a home visit from their family physician. Patient characteristics associated with higher odds of receiving home visits compared to office-based or telephone-based care were being female (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21-1.35), being 85 years of age or older (adjusted OR 2.42, 95% CI 1.80-3.26) and living in a rural area (adjusted OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.00-1.18). Increased odds were associated with home care referrals by the patient's primary care physician (adjusted OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.39-1.58) and referrals occurring during a hospital stay (adjusted OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.13-1.28). INTERPRETATION: A small proportion of patients near the end of life received home-based physician care, and patient characteristics did not explain the low visit rates. Future work on system- and provider-level factors may be critical to improve access to home-based end-of-life primary care.

An exploration of the relationship between wastewater viral signals and COVID-19 hospitalizations in Ottawa, Canada.

Monitoring of viral signal in wastewater is considered a useful tool for monitoring the burden of COVID-19, especially during times of limited availability in testing. Studies have shown that COVID-19 hospitalizations are highly correlated with wastewater viral signals and the increases in wastewater viral signals can provide an early warning for increasing hospital admissions. The association is likely nonlinear and time-varying. This project employs a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) (Gasparrini et al., 2010) to study the nonlinear exposure-response delayed association of the COVID-19 hospitalizations and SARS-CoV-2 wastewater viral signals using relevant data from Ottawa, Canada. We consider up to a 15-day time lag from the average of SARS-CoV N1 and N2 gene concentrations to COVID-19 hospitalizations. The expected reduction in hospitalization is adjusted for vaccination efforts. A correlation analysis of the data verifies that COVID-19 hospitalizations are highly correlated with wastewater viral signals with a time-varying relationship. Our DLNM based analysis yields a reasonable estimate of COVID-19 hospitalizations and enhances our understanding of the association of COVID-19 hospitalizations with wastewater viral signals.

Reducing touching eyes, nose and mouth ('T-zone') to reduce the spread of infectious disease: A prospective study of motivational, volitional and non-reflective predictors.

BACKGROUND: The route into the body for many pathogens is through the eyes, nose and mouth (i.e., the 'T-zone') via inhalation or fomite-based transfer during face touching. It is important to understand factors that are associated with touching the T-zone to inform preventive strategies. PURPOSE: To identify theory-informed predictors of intention to reduce facial 'T-zone' touching and self-reported 'T-zone' touching. METHODS: We conducted a nationally representative prospective questionnaire study of Canadians. Respondents were randomized to answer questions about touching their eyes, nose, or mouth with a questionnaire assessing 11 factors from an augmented Health Action Process Approach at baseline: intention, outcome expectancies, risk perception, individual severity, self-efficacy, action planning, coping planning, social support, automaticity, goal facilitation and stability of context. At 2-week follow-up, we assessed HAPA-based indicators of self-regulatory activities (awareness of standards, effort, self-monitoring) and self-reported behaviour (primary dependent variable). RESULTS: Of 656 Canadian adults recruited, 569 responded to follow-up (87% response rate). Across all areas of the 'T-zone', outcome expectancy was the strongest predictor of intention to reduce facial 'T-zone' touching, while self-efficacy was a significant predictor for only the eyes and mouth. Automaticity was the strongest predictor of behaviour at the 2-week follow-up. No sociodemographic or psychological factors predicted behaviour, with the exception of self-efficacy, which negatively predicted eye touching. CONCLUSION: Findings suggest that focusing on reflective processes may increase intention to reduce 'T-zone' touching, while reducing actual 'T-zone' touching may require strategies that address the automatic nature of this behaviour.

A Health Survey-Based Prediction Equation for Incident CKD.

BACKGROUND: Prediction tools that incorporate self-reported health information could increase CKD awareness, identify modifiable lifestyle risk factors, and prevent disease. We developed and validated a survey-based prediction equation to identify individuals at risk for incident CKD (eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2), with and without a baseline eGFR. METHODS: A cohort of adults with an eGFR ≥70 ml/min per 1.73 m2 from Ontario, Canada, who completed a comprehensive general population health survey between 2000 and 2015 were included (n=22,200). Prediction equations included demographics (age, sex), comorbidities, lifestyle factors, diet, and mood. Models with and without baseline eGFR were derived and externally validated in the UK Biobank (n=15,522). New-onset CKD (eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) with ≤8 years of follow-up was the primary outcome. RESULTS: Among Ontario individuals (mean age, 55 years; 58% women; baseline eGFR, 95 (SD 15) ml/min per 1.73 m2), new-onset CKD occurred in 1981 (9%) during a median follow-up time of 4.2 years. The final models included lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol, physical activity) and comorbid illnesses (diabetes, hypertension, cancer). The model was discriminating in individuals with and without a baseline eGFR measure (5-year c-statistic with baseline eGFR: 83.5, 95% confidence interval [CI], 82.2 to 84.9; without: 81.0, 95% CI, 79.8 to 82.4) and well calibrated. In external validation, the 5-year c-statistic was 78.1 (95% CI, 74.2 to 82.0) and 66.0 (95% CI, 61.6 to 70.4), with and without baseline eGFR, respectively, and maintained calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported lifestyle and health behavior information from health surveys may aid in predicting incident CKD. PODCAST: This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast.aspx?p=CJASN&e=2023_01_10_CJN05650522.mp3.

Deep ROC Analysis and AUC as Balanced Average Accuracy, for Improved Classifier Selection, Audit and Explanation.

Optimal performance is desired for decision-making in any field with binary classifiers and diagnostic tests, however common performance measures lack depth in information. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the area under the precision recall curve are too general because they evaluate all decision thresholds including unrealistic ones. Conversely, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and the F1 score are too specific-they are measured at a single threshold that is optimal for some instances, but not others, which is not equitable. In between both approaches, we propose deep ROC analysis to measure performance in multiple groups of predicted risk (like calibration), or groups of true positive rate or false positive rate. In each group, we measure the group AUC (properly), normalized group AUC, and averages of: sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and likelihood ratio positive and negative. The measurements can be compared between groups, to whole measures, to point measures and between models. We also provide a new interpretation of AUC in whole or part, as balanced average accuracy, relevant to individuals instead of pairs. We evaluate models in three case studies using our method and Python toolkit and confirm its utility.

Population-Level Trends in Emergency Department Encounters for Sexual Assault Preceding and During the COVID-19 Pandemic Across Ontario, Canada.

Importance: Lockdown measures and the stress of the COVID-19 pandemic are factors associated with increased risk of violence, yet there is limited information on trends in emergency department (ED) encounters for sexual assault. Objective: To compare changes in ED encounters for sexual assault during the COVID-19 pandemic vs prepandemic estimates. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective, population-based cohort study used linked health administrative data from 197 EDs across Ontario, Canada, representing more than 15 million residents. Participants included all patients who presented to an ED in Ontario from January 11, 2019, to September 10, 2021. Male and female individuals of all ages were included. Data analysis was performed from March to October 2022. Exposures: Sexual assault, defined through 27 International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, procedure and diagnoses codes. Main Outcomes and Measures: Ten bimonthly time periods were used to compare differences in the frequency and rates of ED encounters for sexual assault between 2020 to 2021 (during the pandemic) compared with baseline prepandemic rates in 2019. Rate differences (RDs) and age adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) and Wald 95% CIs were calculated using Poisson regression. Results: From January 11, 2019, to September 10, 2021, there were 14 476 656 ED encounters, including 10 523 for sexual assault (9304 [88.4%] among female individuals). The median (IQR) age was 23 (17-33) years for female individuals and 15 (4-29) years for male individuals. Two months before the pandemic, ED encounters increased for sexual assault among female individuals (8.4 vs 6.9 cases per 100 000; RD, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.06 to 1.96]; aRR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.09 to 1.38]) and male individuals (1.2 vs 1.0 cases per 100 000; RD, 0.19 [95% CI, 0.05 to 0.36]; aRR, 1.19 [95% CI, 0.87 to 1.64]). During the first 2 months of the pandemic, the rates decreased for female individuals (4.2 vs 8.3 cases per 100 000; RD, -4.07 [95% CI, -4.48 to -3.67]; aRR, 0.51 [95% CI, 0.44 to 0.58]) and male individuals (0.5 vs 1.2 cases per 100 000; RD, -0.72 [95% CI, -0.86 to -0.57]; aRR, 0.39 [95% CI, 0.26 to 0.58]). For the remainder of the study period, the rates of sexual assault oscillated, returning to prepandemic levels during the summer months and between COVID-19 waves. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that lockdown protocols should evaluate the impact of limited care for sexual assault. Survivors should still present to EDs, especially when clinical care or legal interventions are needed.

Caring for older men and women: whose caregivers are more distressed? A population-based retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To our knowledge, no population-based studies have examined whether family or friend caregivers of men and women differ in their experience of distress over time. Thus, we aimed to describe, on a population-level and longitudinally, how older men and women care-receivers differed in their health and care needs, compare their caregivers' distress trajectories, and identify factors that contribute to the observed differences. METHODS: This is a population-based, retrospective cohort study using routinely collected data. We examined longitudinally 485,407 community-dwelling Ontario residents, aged over 50 years, who have received at least one Residential Assessment Instrument-Home Care (RAI-HC) assessment between April 2008 and June 2015. Descriptive analyses were performed on the demographic characteristics, health profiles, and care needs of men and women. We also compared their caregivers' baseline and one-year change in distress status. Logistic regressions were performed to examine if the effect of gender on caregiver distress is reduced after controlling for care-receiver's health and functional status as well as their caregiver's kinship and co-residence status. RESULTS: Men (39.5% of our cohort) were frailer, required more care, were mostly cared for by their spouses (52%), and mostly lived with their caregiver (66%). In contrast, women (60.5%) were more likely cared for by their child/child-in-law (60%), less likely to live with caregivers (47%), and received less care. Caregivers of men were more likely to be distressed at baseline (27.7% versus 20.4% of women caregivers) and remain distressed (74.6% versus 69.5%) or become distressed (19.3% versus 14.3%) throughout the year. In logistic regression modelling, the effect of care-receiver's gender on caregiver distress is reduced from an unadjusted odds ratio of 1.49 (95% CI: 1.47-1.51) to 1.17 (95% CI: 1.15-1.19) when care-receiver's health and caregiving factors are controlled for. CONCLUSION: Older men and women differed in health and care needs. Caregivers, especially those caring for men, were often distressed and remained so through time. These results highlight the need for policies that account for the differential care needs and caregiver profiles of men and women in order to offer targetted and appropriate support.