Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus 2 (RHDV2; GI.2) in Ireland Focusing on Wild Irish Hares (Lepus timidus hibernicus): An Overview of the First Outbreaks and Contextual Review.

Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus 2 (RHDV2; GI.2) is a pathogenic lagovirus that emerged in 2010, and which now has a global distribution. Outbreaks have been associated with local population declines in several lagomorph species, due to rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD)-associated mortality raising concerns for its potential negative impact on threatened or vulnerable wild populations. The Irish hare (Lepus timidus hibernicus) is endemic to Ireland, and is of conservation interest. The first cases of RHDV2 in Ireland were reported in domestic rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in 2016, soon followed by the first known case in a wild rabbit also in 2016, from a population reported to be experiencing high fatalities. During summer 2019, outbreaks in wild rabbits were confirmed in several locations throughout Ireland. Six cases of RHDV2 in wild hares were confirmed between July and November 2019, at four locations. Overall, 27 cases in wildlife were confirmed in 2019 on the island of Ireland, with a predominantly southern distribution. Passive surveillance suggests that the Irish hare is susceptible to lethal RHDV2 infection, and that spillover infection to hares is geographically widespread in eastern areas of Ireland at least, but there is a paucity of data on epidemiology and population impacts. A literature review on RHD impact in closely related Lepus species suggests that intraspecific transmission, spillover transmission, and variable mortality occur in hares, but there is variability in reported resistance to severe disease and mortality amongst species. Several key questions on the impact of the pathogen in Irish hares remain. Surveillance activities throughout the island of Ireland will be important in understanding the spread of infection in this novel host.

First detected case of rabbit Haemorrhagic disease virus 2 (RHDV2) in the Irish hare (Lepus timidus hibernicus).

BACKGROUND: Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) is a Lagovirus, a subgroup of the family Caliciviridae. RHDV2 is a variant first described in France in 2010, and has since spread globally. It has been reported in several Lagomorph species (rabbits, hares, and their relatives) as well as other mammals including voles and shrews. The disease has raised international concerns for its potential impact on population abundance trajectories, particularly as 25% of Lagomorphs are currently Red-Listed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The Irish hare (Lepus timidus hibernicus) is a subspecies of the mountain hare, L. timidus, and is endemic to Ireland, making it an Evolutionarily Significant Unit of intrinsic value. CASE PRESENTATION: The first case of RHDV2 was detected in a wild Irish hare in July 2019. The individual exhibited atypical neurological behaviour (running in circles) prior to death. On necropsy, pink tinged foam was seen in the trachea and congestion was noted in the lungs, but there was no evidence of haemorrhages in any other organ. Both the liver and spleen were tested by reverse transcription real time qPCR confirming high levels of RHDV2 RNA. Histopathology confirmed multifocal necrotising hepatitis. CONCLUSION: The Irish hare is susceptible to RHDV2 infection. Further investigation is warranted to explore the clinical, epidemiological, and population biology implications.

Will predicted positive effects of climate change be enough to reverse declines of the regionally Endangered Natterjack toad in Ireland?

The global amphibian crisis is driven by a range of stressors including disease, habitat loss, and environmental contamination. The role of climate change remains poorly studied and is likely to influence environmental suitability, ranges, reproduction, and phenology. This study aimed to characterize the bioclimatic-habitat niche space of the Natterjack toad (Epidalea calamita) throughout its European range and to assess the impact of climate on the toad's environmental suitability and breeding behavior in Ireland, where declines in recent decades have resulted in it being regionally Red-Listed as Endangered. To address these questions, we first identified which climate variables best predict the current bioclimatic niche, fecundity (number of eggs deposit), and phenology. We then used future climate projections for two time periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to predict how the species range, fecundity, and phenology would change. The European range of the species was found to be limited by winter temperatures while its bioclimatic niche varied markedly throughout its range. Species distribution models suggested projected climate change will increase environmental suitability for the species throughout its range, including Ireland, but most notably in Scandinavia and the Baltic. Fecundity in Ireland was greatest during the cool temperatures of spring and after wet winters associated with ephemeral breeding pool availability. Warm, dry summers in the preceding year influenced fecundity the following spring indicative of carryover effects. Initiation of spawning was driven by spring temperatures, not rainfall. Projections suggested future climate change may increase fecundity in Ireland while spawning may commence earlier throughout the 21st century especially under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5). Despite recent range contraction and population declines due to habitat deterioration, the Natterjack toad, if subject to a suitable species conservation strategy, has the potential to be a climate change winner, notwithstanding unpredictable habitat and land-use change, sea-level rise inducing coastal erosion, changes in invertebrate prey abundance, and disease.

Regime shift tipping point in hare population collapse associated with climatic and agricultural change during the very early 20th century.

Animal populations at northern latitudes may have cyclical dynamics that are degraded by climate change leading to trophic cascade. Hare populations at more southerly latitudes are characterized by dramatic declines in abundance associated with agricultural intensification. We focus on the impact of historical climatic and agricultural change on a mid-latitude population of mountain hares, Lepus timidus hibernicus. Using game bag records from multiple sites throughout Ireland, the hare population index exhibited a distinct regime shift. Contrary to expectations, there was a dynamical structure typical of northern latitude hare populations from 1853 to 1908, during which numbers were stable but cyclic with a periodicity of 8 years. This regime was replaced by dynamics more typical of southern latitude hare populations from 1909 to 1970, in which cycles were lost and numbers declined dramatically. Destabilization of the autumn North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) led to the collapse of similar cycles in the hare population, coincident with the onset of agricultural intensification (a shift from small-to-large farms) in the first half of the 20th century. Similar, but more recent regime shifts have been observed in Arctic ecosystems and attributed to anthropogenic climate change. The present study suggests such shifts may have occurred at lower latitudes more than a century ago during the very early 20th century. It seems likely that similar tipping points in the population collapse of other farmland species may have occurred similarly early but went undocumented. As northern systems are increasingly impacted by climate change and probable expansion of agriculture, the interaction of these processes is likely to disrupt the pulsed flow of resources from cyclic populations impacting ecosystem function.

Combining spawn egg counts, individual photo-ID and genetic fingerprinting to estimate the population size and sex ratio of an endangered amphibian.

According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, 41% of the world's amphibian species are threatened with extinction, making them more threatened than any other vertebrate group nowadays. Given the global amphibian crisis, comprehensive understanding of demographics and population trends of declining and threatened species is essential for effective management and conservation strategies. Counting egg spawns is widely used to assess population abundance in pond breeding anurans. However, it is unknown how such counts translate into robust population size estimations. We monitored the breeding activity of the Natterjack toad (Epidalea calamita), combining egg string counts and individual photo-identification with Capture-Mark-Recapture population size and operational sex ratio estimation. Male Natterjack toads were identified by the pattern of natural markings with repeated ID of the same individual confirmed for 10% of the samples using genetic fingerprinting. We identified 647 unique individuals within a closed study population at Caherdaniel, Co Kerry. Population estimates derived from egg string counts estimated a breeding population of 368 females (95% CI 353-384) and Capture-Mark-Recapture estimated a breeding population of 1698 males (95% CI 1000-2397). The female:male sex ratio was conservatively estimated at 1:5 (95% CI 1:3-1:6) where 62% ± 6% of females were assumed to spawn. These substantially departed from any priori assumption of 1:1 which could have underestimated the breeding population by up to 72%. Where amphibian absolute population size estimation is necessary, methods should include empirical survey data on operational sex ratios and not rely on assumptions or those derived from the literature which may be highly population and/or context-dependent.