Public health and budget impacts of switching from a trivalent to a quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine in Paraguay.

This study aimed to investigate the public health and economic benefit of using a quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) instead of a trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) in past seasons in Paraguay. The budget impact of switching from TIV to QIV in the Immunization Program was also evaluated. The adapted model includes two modules. The first compared retrospectively Health and Economic outcomes resulting from the use of QIV instead of TIV. The second forecast the spending and savings that would be associated with the switch from TIV to QIV. Our findings estimate that the switch from TIV to QIV during the seasons 2012 to 2017 could have prevented around 2,600 influenza cases, 67 hospitalizations and 10 deaths. An alternative scenario using standardized estimates of the burden of influenza showed that 234 influenza-related hospitalizations and 29 deaths could have been prevented. The estimated annual budget impact of a full switch from TIV to QIV was around USD1,6 million both from the payer and societal perspectives. Those results are mainly driven by vaccine prices and coverage rate. In sum, this manuscript describes how the use of QIV instead of TIV could have prevented influenza cases and subsequent complications that led to hospitalizations and deaths. This could have generated savings for the health system and society, offsetting part of the additional investment needed to switch from TIV to QIV.

Non-structural protein 1 (NS1) of dengue virus detection correlates with severity in primary but not in secondary dengue infection.

BACKGROUND: Non-structural protein 1 (NS1) of dengue virus circulates in the serum of patients during the acute phase of the disease. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether NS1 screening can serve in diagnosing primary and secondary infection and to evaluate its utility as a marker for predicting the severity of dengue in children. STUDY DESIGN: Patients ≤15 years of age hospitalized for dengue between 2012-2018, with NS1 determination (Panbio, Australia) were included. Clinical y laboratorial characteristics were collected in a standardized data table for analysis of correlation between serotypes, primary or secondary condition of infection, severity, and presence of NS1. RESULTS: Of 709 children hospitalized for dengue with NS1 determination, 479 (67.5 %) had the positive test. Of the 378 primary cases, 320 (85 %) were NS1 (+). while among the 242 secondary cases only 103 (42.5 %) were NS1 (+) (p < 0001). Of the 479 patients with NS1 (+), 344 (72 %) were warnig-signed cases (WSC) and 94 (19 %) were severe cases (SC), being these figures 62 % and 34 %, in the NS1 negative patients respectively (p < 0.001). There was no difference in the frequency of WSC or SC between patients with NS1 positive or negative test in secondary dengue; however, in primary dengue, the figures were 68 % vs 32 % (p < 0.001), and 87 % vs 12 % (p < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of NS1 positive test is associated with the condition of infection (primary or secondary) and exhibited an increased risk of developing forms with warning signs or severe dengue in primary cases, but not in secondary cases.

Mortality Predictive Scores for Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Children.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The use of severity score for the staging of pneumonias has emerged as a necessity for the physician caring for this disease. Although there are several established prognostic scoring systems for community-acquired pneumonia in adults, the availability for children are scarce. RECENT FINDINGS: Recently, scoring system for risk stratification of children with pneumonia were developed in low- and middle-income countries. They use clinical variables that represent known risk factors for severe outcomes of respiratory illness in children, such as hypoxemia, chest indrawing, refusal to feed, malnutrition, age, and stage of HIV disease among others factors. Although they showed good discriminating power and are very useful in low-resource settings, the characteristics of the patients, the local epidemiology of concurrent diseases, the social conditions, and the facilities of the hospitals make them not applicable to developed countries. A new prognostic scale for estimating mortality based on the modified PIRO scale used in adults with pneumonia can be useful for developed countries. Although several scoring systems for the estimation of mortality in childhood CAP were developed in the last years, most of them come from developing countries and the results are not applicable to patients with pneumonia in developed countries. Prospective studies applying scores adapted to the reality of the developed countries are needed.

Clinical manifestations of primary and secondary dengue in Paraguay and its relation to virus serotype.

INTRODUCTION: Dengue virus (DENV) infection is currently a major cause of morbidity in the world, and its incidence has mainly increased during the last years in Latin America, including Paraguay. The objective of this study was to compare the clinical and laboratory findings of dengue and assess whether the serotype is a risk factor for severity. METHODOLOGY: We included patients ≤ 15 years old hospitalized with dengue at the Institute of Tropical Medicine, from Paraguay, from 2007 to 2018. Patients were classified according to the 2009 WHO dengue classification guidelines and were stratified by serotype into three groups according to the hospitalization period: the 2007 epidemic (DENV-3), the 2012-2013 epidemic (DENV-2) and the 2016-2018 epidemic (DENV-1). RESULTS: Of 784 children hospitalized for dengue, 50 cases (6.3%) were caused by DENV-3, 471 (60%) by DENV-2, and 263 (33.5%) by DENV-1. Myalgias and headache were associated with DENV-3 cases and abdominal pain was associated with DENV-2 cases. Bleeding was observed mainly in DENV-1 and 2 cases. Patients with DENV-2 infections experienced more severe disease, required fluid expansion more frequently, and exhibited more often shock and admission in the ICU. Secondary cases of dengue were more severe that primary cases. Patients with infection by DENV-2 had longer hospital stays (5.1 ± 2.8 days) when compared to DENV-3 o DENV-1 infection cases (2.9 ± 1.6 days and 4.36 ± 2.7 days, respectively) (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The DENV serotype has a profound impact on the clinical manifestations and severity of dengue. DENV-2 infections were associated more frequently to requirement of fluid expansion, shock, and longer hospital stay.