Atherosclerosis quantification and cardiovascular risk: the ISCHEMIA trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA)-derived atherosclerotic plaque analysis in ISCHEMIA. METHODS: Atherosclerosis imaging quantitative computed tomography (AI-QCT) was performed on all available baseline CCTAs to quantify plaque volume, composition, and distribution. Multivariable Cox regression was used to examine the association between baseline risk factors (age, sex, smoking, diabetes, hypertension, ejection fraction, prior coronary disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and statin use), number of diseased vessels, atherosclerotic plaque characteristics determined by AI-QCT, and a composite primary outcome of cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction over a median follow-up of 3.3 (interquartile range 2.2-4.4) years. The predictive value of plaque quantification over risk factors was compared in an area under the curve (AUC) analysis. RESULTS: Analysable CCTA data were available from 3711 participants (mean age 64 years, 21% female, 79% multivessel coronary artery disease). Amongst the AI-QCT variables, total plaque volume was most strongly associated with the primary outcome (adjusted hazard ratio 1.56, 95% confidence interval 1.25-1.97 per interquartile range increase [559 mm3]; P = .001). The addition of AI-QCT plaque quantification and characterization to baseline risk factors improved the model's predictive value for the primary outcome at 6 months (AUC 0.688 vs. 0.637; P = .006), at 2 years (AUC 0.660 vs. 0.617; P = .003), and at 4 years of follow-up (AUC 0.654 vs. 0.608; P = .002). The findings were similar for the other reported outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In ISCHEMIA, total plaque volume was associated with cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction. In this highly diseased, high-risk population, enhanced assessment of atherosclerotic burden using AI-QCT-derived measures of plaque volume and composition modestly improved event prediction.

Location-Specific Prognostic Significance of Plaque Burden, Stenosis, and Plaque Morphology in Coronary Artery Disease.

AIMS: To investigate the location-specific prognostic significance of plaque burden, diameter stenosis and plaque morphology. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients without a documented cardiac history who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) for suspected coronary artery disease were included. Percentage atheroma volume (PAV), maximum diameter stenosis, and plaque morphology were assessed and classified into proximal, mid, or distal segments of the coronary tree. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were defined as death or non-fatal myocardial infarction. Among 2819 patients 267 events (9.5%) occurred during a median follow-up of 6.9 years. When adjusted for traditional risk factors and presence of PAV on other locations, only proximal PAV was independently associated with MACE. However, PAV of the proximal segments was strongly correlated to PAV localized at the mid (R= 0.76) and distal segments (R=0.74, p<0.01 for both). When only adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, the area under the curve (AUC) to predict MACE for proximal PAV was 0.73 (95%CI 0.69-0.76), which was similar compared to mid PAV (AUC 0.72, 95%CI 0.68-0.76) and distal PAV (AUC 0.72, 95%CI 0.68-0.76). Similar results were obtained using diameter stenosis instead of PAV. The presence of proximal low-attenuation plaque had borderline additional prognostic value. CONCLUSIONS: Proximal PAV was the strongest predictor of MACE when adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors and plaque at other locations. However, when presence of plaque was only adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, proximal, mid, and distal plaque localization showed a similar predictive ability for MACE.

Polygenic Risk Is Associated With Long-Term Coronary Plaque Progression and High-Risk Plaque.

BACKGROUND: The longitudinal relation between coronary artery disease (CAD) polygenic risk score (PRS) and long-term plaque progression and high-risk plaque (HRP) features is unknown. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to investigate the impact of CAD PRS on long-term coronary plaque progression and HRP. METHODS: Patients underwent CAD PRS measurement and prospective serial coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) imaging. Coronary CTA scans were analyzed with a previously validated artificial intelligence-based algorithm (atherosclerosis imaging-quantitative computed tomography imaging). The relationship between CAD PRS and change in percent atheroma volume (PAV), percent noncalcified plaque progression, and HRP prevalence was investigated in linear mixed-effect models adjusted for baseline plaque volume and conventional risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 288 subjects (mean age 58 ± 7 years; 60% male) were included in this study with a median scan interval of 10.2 years. At baseline, patients with a high CAD PRS had a more than 5-fold higher PAV than those with a low CAD PRS (10.4% vs 1.9%; P < 0.001). Per 10 years of follow-up, a 1 SD increase in CAD PRS was associated with a 0.69% increase in PAV progression in the multivariable adjusted model. CAD PRS provided additional discriminatory benefit for above-median noncalcified plaque progression during follow-up when added to a model with conventional risk factors (AUC: 0.73 vs 0.69; P = 0.039). Patients with high CAD PRS had an OR of 2.85 (95% CI: 1.14-7.14; P = 0.026) and 6.16 (95% CI: 2.55-14.91; P < 0.001) for having HRP at baseline and follow-up compared with those with low CAD PRS. CONCLUSIONS: Polygenic risk is strongly associated with future long-term plaque progression and HRP in patients suspected of having CAD.

Rapid Plaque Progression Is Independently Associated With Hyperglycemia and Low HDL Cholesterol in Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease: A PARADIGM Study.

BACKGROUND: We assessed whether combinations of cardiometabolic risk factors independently predict coronary plaque progression (PP) and major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with stable coronary artery disease. METHODS: Patients with known or suspected stable coronary artery disease (60.9±9.3 years, 55.4% male) undergoing serial coronary computed tomography angiographies (≥2 years apart), with clinical characterization and follow-up (N=1200), were analyzed from the PARADIGM study (Progression of Atherosclerotic Plaque Determined by Computed Tomographic Angiography Imaging). Plaque volumes measured in coronary segments (≥2 mm in diameter) were summed to provide whole heart plaque volume (mm3) and percent atheroma volume (plaque volume/vessel volume×100; %) per patient at baseline and follow-up. Rapid PP was defined as a percent atheroma volume increase of ≥1.0%/y. Major adverse cardiovascular events included nonfatal myocardial infarction, death, and unplanned coronary revascularization. RESULTS: In an interscan period of 3.2 years (interquartile range, 1.9), rapid PP occurred in 341 patients (28%). At multivariable analysis, the combination of cardiometabolic risk factors defined as metabolic syndrome predicted rapid PP (odds ratio, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.12-2.03]; P=0.007) together with older age, smoking habits, and baseline percent atheroma volume. Among single cardiometabolic variables, high fasting plasma glucose (diabetes or fasting plasma glucose >100 mg/dL) and low HDL-C (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; <40 mg/dL in males and <50 mg/dL in females) were independently associated with rapid PP, in particular when combined (odds ratio, 2.37 [95% CI, 1.56-3.61]; P<0.001). In a follow-up of 8.23 years (interquartile range, 5.92-9.53), major adverse cardiovascular events occurred in 201 patients (17%). At multivariable Cox analysis, the combination of high fasting plasma glucose with high systemic blood pressure (treated hypertension or systemic blood pressure >130/85 mm Hg) was an independent predictor of events (hazard ratio, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.10-2.90]; P=0.018) together with family history, baseline percent atheroma volume, and rapid PP. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with stable coronary artery disease, the combination of hyperglycemia with low HDL-C is associated with rapid PP independently of other risk factors, baseline plaque burden, and treatment. The combination of hyperglycemia with high systemic blood pressure independently predicts the worse outcome beyond PP. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02803411.

Lipoprotein(a) and Long-Term Plaque Progression, Low-Density Plaque, and Pericoronary Inflammation.

Importance: Lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) is a causal risk factor for cardiovascular disease; however, long-term effects on coronary atherosclerotic plaque phenotype, high-risk plaque formation, and pericoronary adipose tissue inflammation remain unknown. Objective: To investigate the association of Lp(a) levels with long-term coronary artery plaque progression, high-risk plaque, and pericoronary adipose tissue inflammation. Design, Setting, and Participants: This single-center prospective cohort study included 299 patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) who underwent per-protocol repeated coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) imaging with an interscan interval of 10 years. Thirty-two patients were excluded because of coronary artery bypass grafting, resulting in a study population of 267 patients. Data for this study were collected from October 2008 to October 2022 and analyzed from March 2023 to March 2024. Exposures: The median scan interval was 10.2 years. Lp(a) was measured at follow-up using an isoform-insensitive assay. CCTA scans were analyzed with a previously validated artificial intelligence-based algorithm (atherosclerosis imaging-quantitative computed tomography). Main Outcome and Measures: The association between Lp(a) and change in percent plaque volumes was investigated in linear mixed-effects models adjusted for clinical risk factors. Secondary outcomes were presence of low-density plaque and presence of increased pericoronary adipose tissue attenuation at baseline and follow-up CCTA imaging. Results: The 267 included patients had a mean age of 57.1 (SD, 7.3) years and 153 were male (57%). Patients with Lp(a) levels of 125 nmol/L or higher had twice as high percent atheroma volume (6.9% vs 3.0%; P = .01) compared with patients with Lp(a) levels less than 125 nmol/L. Adjusted for other risk factors, every doubling of Lp(a) resulted in an additional 0.32% (95% CI, 0.04-0.60) increment in percent atheroma volume during the 10 years of follow-up. Every doubling of Lp(a) resulted in an odds ratio of 1.23 (95% CI, 1.00-1.51) and 1.21 (95% CI, 1.01-1.45) for the presence of low-density plaque at baseline and follow-up, respectively. Patients with higher Lp(a) levels had increased pericoronary adipose tissue attenuation around both the right coronary artery and left anterior descending at baseline and follow-up. Conclusions and Relevance: In this long-term prospective serial CCTA imaging study, higher Lp(a) levels were associated with increased progression of coronary plaque burden and increased presence of low-density noncalcified plaque and pericoronary adipose tissue inflammation. These data suggest an impact of elevated Lp(a) levels on coronary atherogenesis of high-risk, inflammatory, rupture-prone plaques over the long term.

Prognostic value of a novel artificial intelligence-based coronary CTA-derived ischemia algorithm among patients with normal or abnormal myocardial perfusion.

BACKGROUND: Among patients with obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) on coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA), downstream positron emission tomography (PET) perfusion imaging can be performed to assess the presence of myocardial ischemia. A novel artificial-intelligence-guided quantitative computed tomography ischemia algorithm (AI-QCTischemia) aims to predict ischemia directly from coronary CTA images. We aimed to study the prognostic value of AI-QCTischemia among patients with obstructive CAD on coronary CTA and normal or abnormal downstream PET perfusion. METHODS: AI-QCTischemia was calculated by blinded analysts among patients from the retrospective coronary CTA cohort at Turku University Hospital, Finland, with obstructive CAD on initial visual reading (diameter stenosis ≥50%) being referred for downstream 15O-H2O-PET adenosine stress perfusion imaging. All coronary arteries with their side branches were assessed by AI-QCTischemia. Absolute stress myocardial blood flow ≤2.3 â€‹ml/g/min in ≥2 adjacent segments was considered abnormal. The primary endpoint was death, myocardial infarction, or unstable angina pectoris. The median follow-up was 6.2 [IQR 4.4-8.3] years. RESULTS: 662 of 768 (86%) patients had conclusive AI-QCTischemia result. In patients with normal 15O-H2O-PET perfusion, an abnormal AI-QCTischemia result (n â€‹= â€‹147/331) vs. normal AI-QCTischemia result (n â€‹= â€‹184/331) was associated with a significantly higher crude and adjusted rates of the primary endpoint (adjusted HR 2.47, 95% CI 1.17-5.21, p â€‹= â€‹0.018). This did not pertain to patients with abnormal 15O-H2O-PET perfusion (abnormal AI-QCTischemia result (n â€‹= â€‹269/331) vs. normal AI-QCTischemia result (n â€‹= â€‹62/331); adjusted HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.58-2.02, p â€‹= â€‹0.794) (p-interaction â€‹= â€‹0.039). CONCLUSION: Among patients with obstructive CAD on coronary CTA referred for downstream 15O-H2O-PET perfusion imaging, AI-QCTischemia showed incremental prognostic value among patients with preserved perfusion by 15O-H2O-PET imaging, but not among those with reduced perfusion.

Atherosclerosis evaluation and cardiovascular risk estimation using coronary computed tomography angiography.

Clinical risk scores based on traditional risk factors of atherosclerosis correlate imprecisely to an individual's complex pathophysiological predisposition to atherosclerosis and provide limited accuracy for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Over the past two decades, computed tomography scanners and techniques for coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) analysis have substantially improved, enabling more precise atherosclerotic plaque quantification and characterization. The accuracy of CCTA for quantifying stenosis and atherosclerosis has been validated in numerous multicentre studies and has shown consistent incremental prognostic value for MACE over the clinical risk spectrum in different populations. Serial CCTA studies have advanced our understanding of vascular biology and atherosclerotic disease progression. The direct disease visualization of CCTA has the potential to be used synergistically with indirect markers of risk to significantly improve prevention of MACE, pending large-scale randomized evaluation.

Development and Validation of a Quantitative Coronary CT Angiography Model for Diagnosis of Vessel-Specific Coronary Ischemia.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive stress testing is commonly used for detection of coronary ischemia but possesses variable accuracy and may result in excessive health care costs. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to derive and validate an artificial intelligence-guided quantitative coronary computed tomography angiography (AI-QCT) model for the diagnosis of coronary ischemia that integrates atherosclerosis and vascular morphology measures (AI-QCTISCHEMIA) and to evaluate its prognostic utility for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). METHODS: A post hoc analysis of the CREDENCE (Computed Tomographic Evaluation of Atherosclerotic Determinants of Myocardial Ischemia) and PACIFIC-1 (Comparison of Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography, Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography [SPECT], Positron Emission Tomography [PET], and Hybrid Imaging for Diagnosis of Ischemic Heart Disease Determined by Fractional Flow Reserve) studies was performed. In both studies, symptomatic patients with suspected stable coronary artery disease had prospectively undergone coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA), myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI), SPECT, or PET, fractional flow reserve by CT (FFRCT), and invasive coronary angiography in conjunction with invasive FFR measurements. The AI-QCTISCHEMIA model was developed in the derivation cohort of the CREDENCE study, and its diagnostic performance for coronary ischemia (FFR ≤0.80) was evaluated in the CREDENCE validation cohort and PACIFIC-1. Its prognostic value was investigated in PACIFIC-1. RESULTS: In CREDENCE validation (n = 305, age 64.4 ± 9.8 years, 210 [69%] male), the diagnostic performance by area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) on per-patient level was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.75-0.85) for AI-QCTISCHEMIA, 0.69 (95% CI: 0.63-0.74; P < 0.001) for FFRCT, and 0.65 (95% CI: 0.59-0.71; P < 0.001) for MPI. In PACIFIC-1 (n = 208, age 58.1 ± 8.7 years, 132 [63%] male), the AUCs were 0.85 (95% CI: 0.79-0.91) for AI-QCTISCHEMIA, 0.78 (95% CI: 0.72-0.84; P = 0.037) for FFRCT, 0.89 (95% CI: 0.84-0.93; P = 0.262) for PET, and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67-0.78; P < 0.001) for SPECT. Adjusted for clinical risk factors and coronary CTA-determined obstructive stenosis, a positive AI-QCTISCHEMIA test was associated with aHR: 7.6 (95% CI: 1.2-47.0; P = 0.030) for MACE. CONCLUSIONS: This newly developed coronary CTA-based ischemia model using coronary atherosclerosis and vascular morphology characteristics accurately diagnoses coronary ischemia by invasive FFR and provides robust prognostic utility for MACE beyond presence of stenosis.

Sex Differences in Revascularization, Treatment Goals, and Outcomes of Patients With Chronic Coronary Disease: Insights From the ISCHEMIA Trial.

BACKGROUND: Women with chronic coronary disease are generally older than men and have more comorbidities but less atherosclerosis. We explored sex differences in revascularization, guideline-directed medical therapy, and outcomes among patients with chronic coronary disease with ischemia on stress testing, with and without invasive management. METHODS AND RESULTS: The ISCHEMIA (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches) trial randomized patients with moderate or severe ischemia to invasive management with angiography, revascularization, and guideline-directed medical therapy, or initial conservative management with guideline-directed medical therapy alone. We evaluated the primary outcome (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure, or resuscitated cardiac arrest) and other end points, by sex, in 1168 (22.6%) women and 4011 (77.4%) men. Invasive group catheterization rates were similar, with less revascularization among women (73.4% of invasive-assigned women revascularized versus 81.2% of invasive-assigned men; P<0.001). Women had less coronary artery disease: multivessel in 60.0% of invasive-assigned women and 74.8% of invasive-assigned men, and no ≥50% stenosis in 12.3% versus 4.5% (P<0.001). In the conservative group, 4-year catheterization rates were 26.3% of women versus 25.6% of men (P=0.72). Guideline-directed medical therapy use was lower among women with fewer risk factor goals attained. There were no sex differences in the primary outcome (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for women versus men, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.77-1.13]; P=0.47) or the major secondary outcome of cardiovascular death/myocardial infarction (adjusted HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.76-1.14]; P=0.49), with no significant sex-by-treatment-group interactions. CONCLUSIONS: Women had less extensive coronary artery disease and, therefore, lower revascularization rates in the invasive group. Despite lower risk factor goal attainment, women with chronic coronary disease experienced similar risk-adjusted outcomes to men in the ISCHEMIA trial. REGISTRATION: URL: http://wwwclinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01471522.

Prediction of the development of new coronary atherosclerotic plaques with radiomics.

BACKGROUND: Radiomics is expected to identify imaging features beyond the human eye. We investigated whether radiomics can identify coronary segments that will develop new atherosclerotic plaques on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). METHODS: From a prospective multinational registry of patients with serial CCTA studies at ≥ 2-year intervals, segments without identifiable coronary plaque at baseline were selected and radiomic features were extracted. Cox models using clinical risk factors (Model 1), radiomic features (Model 2) and both clinical risk factors and radiomic features (Model 3) were constructed to predict the development of a coronary plaque, defined as total PV â€‹≥ â€‹1 â€‹mm3, at follow-up CCTA in each segment. RESULTS: In total, 9583 normal coronary segments were identified from 1162 patients (60.3 â€‹± â€‹9.2 years, 55.7% male) and divided 8:2 into training and test sets. At follow-up CCTA, 9.8% of the segments developed new coronary plaque. The predictive power of Models 1 and 2 was not different in both the training and test sets (C-index [95% confidence interval (CI)] of Model 1 vs. Model 2: 0.701 [0.690-0.712] vs. 0.699 [0.0.688-0.710] and 0.696 [0.671-0.725] vs. 0.0.691 [0.667-0.715], respectively, all p â€‹> â€‹0.05). The addition of radiomic features to clinical risk factors improved the predictive power of the Cox model in both the training and test sets (C-index [95% CI] of Model 3: 0.772 [0.762-0.781] and 0.767 [0.751-0.787], respectively, all p â€‹< â€‹00.0001 compared to Models 1 and 2). CONCLUSION: Radiomic features can improve the identification of segments that would develop new coronary atherosclerotic plaque. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0280341.

Beyond early LDL cholesterol lowering to prevent coronary atherosclerosis in familial hypercholesterolaemia.

AIMS: Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) patients are subjected to a high lifetime exposure to low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), despite use of lipid-lowering therapy (LLT). This study aimed to quantify the extent of subclinical atherosclerosis and to evaluate the association between lifetime cumulative LDL-C exposure and coronary atherosclerosis in young FH patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Familial hypercholesterolaemia patients, divided into a subgroup of early treated (LLT initiated <25 years) and late treated (LLT initiated ≥25 years) patients, and an age- and sex-matched unaffected control group, underwent coronary CT angiography (CCTA) with artificial intelligence-guided analysis. Ninety genetically diagnosed FH patients and 45 unaffected volunteers (mean age 41 ± 3 years, 51 (38%) female) were included. Familial hypercholesterolaemia patients had higher cumulative LDL-C exposure (181 ± 54 vs. 105 ± 33 mmol/L ∗ years) and higher prevalence of coronary plaque compared with controls (46 [51%] vs. 10 [22%], OR 3.66 [95%CI 1.62-8.27]). Every 75 mmol/L ∗ years cumulative exposure to LDL-C was associated with a doubling in per cent atheroma volume (total plaque volume divided by total vessel volume). Early treated patients had a modestly lower cumulative LDL-C exposure compared with late treated FH patients (167 ± 41 vs. 194 ± 61 mmol/L ∗ years; P = 0.045), without significant difference in coronary atherosclerosis. Familial hypercholesterolaemia patients with above-median cumulative LDL-C exposure had significantly higher plaque prevalence (OR 3.62 [95%CI 1.62-8.27]; P = 0.001), compared with patients with below-median exposure. CONCLUSION: Lifetime exposure to LDL-C determines coronary plaque burden in FH, underlining the need of early as well as potent treatment initiation. Periodic CCTA may offer a unique opportunity to monitor coronary atherosclerosis and personalize treatment in FH.

This study reveals that young patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH), as compared with individuals without FH, have a higher build-up of coronary artery plaque, linked directly to their increased lifetime exposure to LDL cholesterol. Genetically confirmed FH patients have a higher coronary plaque burden than those without FH, with every 75 mmol/L ∗ years increase in lifetime cumulative LDL cholesterol exposure resulting in a two-fold increase in total plaque volume. Early and potent LDL cholesterol lowering treatments are crucial for FH patients to prevent future cardiovascular diseases.

Impact of atherosclerosis imaging-quantitative computed tomography on diagnostic certainty, downstream testing, coronary revascularization, and medical therapy: the CERTAIN study.

AIMS: The incremental impact of atherosclerosis imaging-quantitative computed tomography (AI-QCT) on diagnostic certainty and downstream patient management is not yet known. The aim of this study was to compare the clinical utility of the routine implementation of AI-QCT versus conventional visual coronary CT angiography (CCTA) interpretation. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this multi-centre cross-over study in 5 expert CCTA sites, 750 consecutive adult patients referred for CCTA were prospectively recruited. Blinded to the AI-QCT analysis, site physicians established patient diagnoses and plans for downstream non-invasive testing, coronary intervention, and medication management based on the conventional site assessment. Next, physicians were asked to repeat their assessments based upon AI-QCT results. The included patients had an age of 63.8 ± 12.2 years; 433 (57.7%) were male. Compared with the conventional site CCTA evaluation, AI-QCT analysis improved physician's confidence two- to five-fold at every step of the care pathway and was associated with change in diagnosis or management in the majority of patients (428; 57.1%; P < 0.001), including for measures such as Coronary Artery Disease-Reporting and Data System (CAD-RADS) (295; 39.3%; P < 0.001) and plaque burden (197; 26.3%; P < 0.001). After AI-QCT including ischaemia assessment, the need for downstream non-invasive and invasive testing was reduced by 37.1% (P < 0.001), compared with the conventional site CCTA evaluation. Incremental to the site CCTA evaluation alone, AI-QCT resulted in statin initiation/increase an aspirin initiation in an additional 28.1% (P < 0.001) and 23.0% (P < 0.001) of patients, respectively. CONCLUSION: The use of AI-QCT improves diagnostic certainty and may result in reduced downstream need for non-invasive testing and increased rates of preventive medical therapy.

AI-Guided Quantitative Plaque Staging Predicts Long-Term Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients at Risk for Atherosclerotic CVD.

BACKGROUND: The recent development of artificial intelligence-guided quantitative coronary computed tomography angiography analysis (AI-QCT) has enabled rapid analysis of atherosclerotic plaque burden and characteristics. OBJECTIVES: This study set out to investigate the 10-year prognostic value of atherosclerotic burden derived from AI-QCT and to compare the spectrum of plaque to manually assessed coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS), and clinical risk characteristics. METHODS: This was a long-term follow-up study of 536 patients referred for suspected coronary artery disease. CCTA scans were analyzed with AI-QCT and plaque burden was classified with a plaque staging system (stage 0: 0% percentage atheroma volume [PAV]; stage 1: >0%-5% PAV; stage 2: >5%-15% PAV; stage 3: >15% PAV). The primary major adverse cardiac event (MACE) outcome was a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, coronary revascularization, and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: The mean age at baseline was 58.6 years and 297 patients (55%) were male. During a median follow-up of 10.3 years (IQR: 8.6-11.5 years), 114 patients (21%) experienced the primary outcome. Compared to stages 0 and 1, patients with stage 3 PAV and percentage of noncalcified plaque volume of >7.5% had a more than 3-fold (adjusted HR: 3.57; 95% CI 2.12-6.00; P < 0.001) and 4-fold (adjusted HR: 4.37; 95% CI: 2.51-7.62; P < 0.001) increased risk of MACE, respectively. Addition of AI-QCT improved a model with clinical risk factors and CACS at different time points during follow-up (10-year AUC: 0.82 [95% CI: 0.78-0.87] vs 0.73 [95% CI: 0.68-0.79]; P < 0.001; net reclassification improvement: 0.21 [95% CI: 0.09-0.38]). Furthermore, AI-QCT achieved an improved area under the curve compared to Coronary Artery Disease Reporting and Data System 2.0 (10-year AUC: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.73-0.83; P = 0.023) and manual QCT (10-year AUC: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.73-0.83; P = 0.040), although net reclassification improvement was modest (0.09 [95% CI: -0.02 to 0.29] and 0.04 [95% CI: -0.05 to 0.27], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Through 10-year follow-up, AI-QCT plaque staging showed important prognostic value for MACE and showed additional discriminatory value over clinical risk factors, CACS, and manual guideline-recommended CCTA assessment.

Progression of non-obstructive coronary plaque: a practical CCTA-based risk score from the PARADIGM registry.

OBJECTIVES: No clear recommendations are endorsed by the different scientific societies on the clinical use of repeat coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in patients with non-obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). This study aimed to develop and validate a practical CCTA risk score to predict medium-term disease progression in patients at a low-to-intermediate probability of CAD. METHODS: Patients were part of the Progression of AtheRosclerotic PlAque Determined by Computed Tomographic Angiography Imaging (PARADIGM) registry. Specifically, 370 (derivation cohort) and 219 (validation cohort) patients with two repeat, clinically indicated CCTA scans, non-obstructive CAD, and absence of high-risk plaque (≥ 2 high-risk features) at baseline CCTA were included. Disease progression was defined as the new occurrence of ≥ 50% stenosis and/or high-risk plaque at follow-up CCTA. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, 104 (28%) patients experienced disease progression. The median time interval between the two CCTAs was 3.3 years (2.7-4.8). Odds ratios for disease progression derived from multivariable logistic regression were as follows: 4.59 (95% confidence interval: 1.69-12.48) for the number of plaques with spotty calcification, 3.73 (1.46-9.52) for the number of plaques with low attenuation component, 2.71 (1.62-4.50) for 25-49% stenosis severity, 1.47 (1.17-1.84) for the number of bifurcation plaques, and 1.21 (1.02-1.42) for the time between the two CCTAs. The C-statistics of the model were 0.732 (0.676-0.788) and 0.668 (0.583-0.752) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The new CCTA-based risk score is a simple and practical tool that can predict mid-term CAD progression in patients with known non-obstructive CAD. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: The clinical implementation of this new CCTA-based risk score can help promote the management of patients with non-obstructive coronary disease in terms of timing of imaging follow-up and therapeutic strategies. KEY POINTS: • No recommendations are available on the use of repeat CCTA in patients with non-obstructive CAD. • This new CCTA score predicts mid-term CAD progression in patients with non-obstructive stenosis at baseline. • This new CCTA score can help guide the clinical management of patients with non-obstructive CAD.

Rationale and design of the CONFIRM2 (Quantitative COroNary CT Angiography Evaluation For Evaluation of Clinical Outcomes: An InteRnational, Multicenter Registry) study.

BACKGROUND: In the last 15 years, large registries and several randomized clinical trials have demonstrated the diagnostic and prognostic value of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). Advances in CT scanner technology and developments of analytic tools now enable accurate quantification of coronary artery disease (CAD), including total coronary plaque volume and low attenuation plaque volume. The primary aim of CONFIRM2, (Quantitative COroNary CT Angiography Evaluation For Evaluation of Clinical Outcomes: An InteRnational, Multicenter Registry) is to perform comprehensive quantification of CCTA findings, including coronary, non-coronary cardiac, non-cardiac vascular, non-cardiac findings, and relate them to clinical variables and cardiovascular clinical outcomes. DESIGN: CONFIRM2 is a multicenter, international observational cohort study designed to evaluate multidimensional associations between quantitative phenotype of cardiovascular disease and future adverse clinical outcomes in subjects undergoing clinically indicated CCTA. The targeted population is heterogenous and includes patients undergoing CCTA for atherosclerotic evaluation, valvular heart disease, congenital heart disease or pre-procedural evaluation. Automated software will be utilized for quantification of coronary plaque, stenosis, vascular morphology and cardiac structures for rapid and reproducible tissue characterization. Up to 30,000 patients will be included from up to 50 international multi-continental clinical CCTA sites and followed for 3-4 years. SUMMARY: CONFIRM2 is one of the largest CCTA studies to establish the clinical value of a multiparametric approach to quantify the phenotype of cardiovascular disease by CCTA using automated imaging solutions.

Prognostic Value of a Novel Artificial Intelligence-Based Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography-Derived Ischemia Algorithm for Patients with Suspected Coronary Artery Disease.

AIMS: Coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) imaging is used to diagnose patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). A novel artificial-intelligence-guided quantitative computed tomography ischemia algorithm (AI-QCTischemia) aims to identify myocardial ischemia directly from CTA images and may be helpful to improve risk stratification. The aims were 1) the prognostic value of AI-QCTischemia among symptomatic patients with suspected CAD entering diagnostic imaging with coronary CTA, and 2) the prognostic value of AI-QCTischemia separately among patients with no/non-obstructive CAD (≤50% visual diameter stenosis) and obstructive CAD (>50% visual diameter stenosis). METHODS AND RESULTS: For this cohort study, AI-QCTischemia was calculated by blinded analysts among patients with suspected CAD undergoing coronary CTA. The primary endpoint was the composite of death, myocardial infarction (MI), or unstable angina pectoris (uAP) (median follow-up 6.9 years). 1880/2271 (83%) patients were analyzable by AI-QCTischemia. Patients with an abnormal AI-QCTischemia result (n = 509/1880) vs. patients with a normal AI-QCTischemia result (n = 1371/1880) had significantly higher crude and adjusted rates of the primary endpoint (HRadj 1.96,95% CI 1.46-2.63, p < 0.001; covariates: age/sex/hypertension/diabetes/smoking/typical angina). An abnormal AI-QCTischemia result was associated with significantly higher crude and adjusted rates of the primary endpoint among patients with no/non-obstructive CAD (n = 1373/1847) (HRadj 1.81,95% CI 1.09-3.00, p = 0.022), but not among those with obstructive CAD (n = 474/1847) (HRadj 1.26,95% CI 0.75-2.12, p = 0.386) (p-interaction = 0.032). CONCLUSION: Among patients with suspected CAD, an abnormal AI-QCTischemia result was associated with a 2-fold increased adjusted rate of long-term death, MI, or uAP. AI-QCTischemia may be useful to improve risk stratification, especially among patients with no/non-obstructive CAD on coronary CTA.