Estimated number of lives directly saved by COVID-19 vaccination programmes in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023: a retrospective surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: By March, 2023, 54 countries, areas, and territories (hereafter CAT) in the WHO European Region had reported more than 2·2 million COVID-19-related deaths to the WHO Regional Office for Europe. Here, we estimated how many lives were directly saved by vaccinating adults in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023. METHODS: In this retrospective surveillance study, we estimated the number of lives directly saved by age group, vaccine dose, and circulating variant-of-concern (VOC) period, regionally and nationally, using weekly data on COVID-19 mortality and infection, COVID-19 vaccination uptake, and SARS-CoV-2 virus characterisations by lineage downloaded from The European Surveillance System on June 11, 2023, as well as vaccine effectiveness data from the literature. We included data for six age groups (25-49 years, 50-59 years, ≥60 years, 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and ≥80 years). To be included in the analysis, CAT needed to have reported both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality data for at least one of the four older age groups. Only CAT that reported weekly data for both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality by age group for 90% of study weeks or more in the full study period were included. We calculated the percentage reduction in the number of expected and reported deaths. FINDINGS: Between December, 2020, and March, 2023, in 34 of 54 CAT included in the analysis, COVID-19 vaccines reduced deaths by 59% overall (CAT range 17-82%), representing approximately 1·6 million lives saved (range 1·5-1·7 million) in those aged 25 years or older: 96% of lives saved were aged 60 years or older and 52% were aged 80 years or older; first boosters saved 51% of lives, and 60% were saved during the Omicron period. INTERPRETATION: Over nearly 2·5 years, most lives saved by COVID-19 vaccination were in older adults by first booster dose and during the Omicron period, reinforcing the importance of up-to-date vaccination among the most at-risk individuals. Further modelling work should evaluate indirect effects of vaccination and public health and social measures. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Seasonal and inter-seasonal RSV activity in the European Region during the COVID-19 pandemic from autumn 2020 to summer 2022.

Background: The emergence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in early 2020 and subsequent implementation of public health and social measures (PHSM) disrupted the epidemiology of respiratory viruses. This work describes the epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed during two winter seasons (weeks 40-20) and inter-seasonal periods (weeks 21-39) during the pandemic between October 2020 and September 2022. Methods: Using data submitted to The European Surveillance System (TESSy) by countries or territories in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region between weeks 40/2020 and 39/2022, we aggregated country-specific weekly RSV counts of sentinel, non-sentinel and Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) surveillance specimens and calculated percentage positivity. Results for both 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons and inter-seasons were compared with pre-pandemic 2016/17 to 2019/20 seasons and inter-seasons. Results: Although more specimens were tested than in pre-COVID-19 pandemic seasons, very few RSV detections were reported during the 2020/21 season in all surveillance systems. During the 2021 inter-season, a gradual increase in detections was observed in all systems. In 2021/22, all systems saw early peaks of RSV infection, and during the 2022 inter-seasonal period, patterns of detections were closer to those seen before the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusion: RSV surveillance continued throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, with an initial reduction in transmission, followed by very high and out-of-season RSV circulation (summer 2021) and then an early start of the 2021/22 season. As of the 2022/23 season, RSV circulation had not yet normalised.

Understanding adherence to self-isolation in the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in England: a cross-sectional mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: During the early "containment" phase of the COVID-19 response in England (January-March 2020), contact tracing was managed by Public Health England (PHE). Adherence to self-isolation during this phase and how people were making those decisions has not previously been determined. The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of decisions around adherence to self-isolation during the first phase of the COVID-19 response in England. METHODS: A mixed-methods cross sectional study was conducted, including an online survey and qualitative interviews. The overall pattern of adherence was described as never leaving home, leaving home for lower-contact reasons and leaving home for higher-contact reasons. Fisher's exact test was used to test associations between adherence and potentially predictive binary factors. Factors showing evidence of association overall were then considered in relation to the three aspects of adherence individually. Qualitative data were analysed using inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Of 250 respondents who were advised to self-isolate, 63% reported not leaving home at all during their isolation period, 20% reported leaving only for lower-contact activities (dog walking or exercise) and 16% reported leaving for higher-contact, and therefore higher-risk, reasons. Factors associated with adherence to never going out included: the belief that following isolation advice would save lives, experiencing COVID-19 symptoms, being advised to stay in their room, having help from outside and having regular contact by text message from PHE. Factors associated with non-adherence included being angry about the advice to isolate, being unable to get groceries delivered and concerns about losing touch with friends and family. Interviews highlighted that a sense of duty motivated people to adhere to isolation guidance and where people did leave their homes, these decisions were based on rational calculations of the risk of transmission - people would only leave their homes when they thought they were unlikely to come into contact with others. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding adherence to isolation and associated reasoning during the early stages of the pandemic is essential to pandemic preparedness for future emerging infectious disease outbreaks. Individuals make complex decisions around adherence by calibrating transmission risks, therefore treating adherence as binary should be avoided.

Age-specific associations between underlying health conditions and hospitalisation, death and in-hospital death among confirmed COVID-19 cases: a multi-country study based on surveillance data, June to December 2020.

BackgroundUnderlying conditions are risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes but evidence is limited about how risks differ with age.AimWe sought to estimate age-specific associations between underlying conditions and hospitalisation, death and in-hospital death among COVID-19 cases.MethodsWe analysed case-based COVID-19 data submitted to The European Surveillance System between 2 June and 13 December 2020 by nine European countries. Eleven underlying conditions among cases with only one condition and the number of underlying conditions among multimorbid cases were used as exposures. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were estimated using 39 different age-adjusted and age-interaction multivariable logistic regression models, with marginal means from the latter used to estimate probabilities of severe outcome for each condition-age group combination.ResultsCancer, cardiac disorder, diabetes, immunodeficiency, kidney, liver and lung disease, neurological disorders and obesity were associated with elevated risk (aOR: 1.5-5.6) of hospitalisation and death, after controlling for age, sex, reporting period and country. As age increased, age-specific aOR were lower and predicted probabilities higher. However, for some conditions, predicted probabilities were at least as high in younger individuals with the condition as in older cases without it. In multimorbid patients, the aOR for severe disease increased with number of conditions for all outcomes and in all age groups.ConclusionWhile supporting age-based vaccine roll-out, our findings could inform a more nuanced, age- and condition-specific approach to vaccine prioritisation. This is relevant as countries consider vaccination of younger people, boosters and dosing intervals in response to vaccine escape variants.

Hepatitis of unknown aetiology in children - epidemiological overview of cases reported in Europe, 1 January to 16 June 2022.

Following the report of an excess in paediatric cases of severe acute hepatitis of unknown aetiology by the United Kingdom (UK) on 5 April 2022, 427 cases were reported from 20 countries in the World Health Organization European Region to the European Surveillance System TESSy from 1 January 2022 to 16 June 2022. Here, we analysed demographic, epidemiological, clinical and microbiological data available in TESSy. Of the reported cases, 77.3% were 5 years or younger and 53.5% had a positive test for adenovirus, 10.4% had a positive RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 and 10.3% were coinfected with both pathogens. Cases with adenovirus infections were significantly more likely to be admitted to intensive care or high-dependency units (OR = 2.11; 95% CI: 1.18-3.74) and transplanted (OR = 3.36; 95% CI: 1.19-9.55) than cases with a negative test result for adenovirus, but this was no longer observed when looking at this association separately between the UK and other countries. Aetiological studies are needed to ascertain if adenovirus plays a role in this possible emergence of hepatitis cases in children and, if confirmed, the mechanisms that could be involved.

Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021.

Since December 2019, over 1.5 million SARS-CoV-2-related fatalities have been recorded in the World Health Organization European Region - 90.2% in people ≥ 60 years. We calculated lives saved in this age group by COVID-19 vaccination in 33 countries from December 2020 to November 2021, using weekly reported deaths and vaccination coverage. We estimated that vaccination averted 469,186 deaths (51% of 911,302 expected deaths; sensitivity range: 129,851-733,744; 23-62%). Impact by country ranged 6-93%, largest when implementation was early.

Spotlight influenza: Laboratory-confirmed seasonal influenza in people with acute respiratory illness: a literature review and meta-analysis, WHO European Region, 2004 to 2017.

BackgroundAcross the World Health Organization European Region, there are few estimates of the proportion of people seeking medical care for influenza-like illness or acute respiratory infections and who have laboratory-confirmed seasonal influenza infection.MethodsWe conducted a meta-analysis of data extracted from studies published between 2004 and 2017 and from sentinel data from the European surveillance system (TESSy) between 2004 and 2018. We pooled within-season estimates by influenza type/subtype, setting (outpatient (OP)/inpatient (IP)) and age group to estimate the proportion of people tested who have laboratory-confirmed and medically-attended seasonal influenza in Europe.ResultsIn the literature review, the pooled proportion for all influenza types was 33% (95% confidence interval (CI): 30-36), higher among OP 36% (95% CI: 33-40) than IP 24% (95% CI: 20-29). Pooled estimates for all influenza types by age group were: 0-17 years, 26% (22-31); 18-64 years, 41% (32-50); ≥ 65 years, 33% (27-40). From TESSy data, 33% (31-34) of OP and 24% (21-27) of IP were positive. The highest proportion of influenza A was in people aged 18-64 years (22%, 16-29). By subtype, A(H1N1)pdm09 was highest in 18-64 year-olds (16%, 11-21%) whereas A(H3N2) was highest in those ≥ 65 years (10%, 2-22). For influenza B, the highest proportion of infections was in those aged 18-64 years (15%, 9-24).ConclusionsLaboratory-confirmed influenza accounted for approximately one third of all acute respiratory infections for which medical care was sought during the influenza season.

Development and evaluation of an outbreak surveillance system integrating whole genome sequencing data for non-typhoidal Salmonella in London and South East of England, 2016-17.

An outbreak surveillance system for Salmonella integrating whole genome sequencing (WGS) and epidemiological data was developed in South East and London in 2016-17 to assess local WGS clusters for triage and investigation. Cases genetically linked within a 5 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) single linkage cluster were assessed using a set of locally agreed thresholds based on time, person and place, for reporting to local health protection teams (HPTs). Between September 2016 and September 2017, 230 unique 5-SNP clusters (442 weekly reports) of non-typhoidal Salmonella 5-SNP WGS clusters were identified, of which 208 unique 5-SNP clusters (316 weekly reports) were not reported to the HPTs. In the remaining 22 unique clusters (126 weekly clusters) reported to HPTs, nine were known active outbreak investigations, seven were below locally agreed thresholds and six exceeded local thresholds. A common source or vehicle was identified in four of six clusters that exceeded locally agreed thresholds. This work demonstrates that a threshold-based surveillance system, taking into account time, place and genetic relatedness, is feasible and effective in directing the use of local public health resources for risk assessment and investigation of non-typhoidal Salmonella clusters.

Very little influenza in the WHO European Region during the 2020/21 season, weeks 40 2020 to 8 2021.

Between weeks 40 2020 and 8 2021, the World Health Organization European Region experienced a 99.8% reduction in sentinel influenza virus positive detections (33/25,606 tested; 0.1%) relative to an average of 14,966/39,407 (38.0%; p < 0.001) over the same time in the previous six seasons. COVID-19 pandemic public health and physical distancing measures may have extinguished the 2020/21 European seasonal influenza epidemic with just a few sporadic detections of all viral subtypes. This might possibly continue during the remainder of the influenza season.

Alternating patterns of seasonal influenza activity in the WHO European Region following the 2009 pandemic, 2010-2018.

BACKGROUND: Influenza virus infections are common and lead to substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide. We characterized the first eight influenza epidemics since the 2009 influenza pandemic by describing the distribution of viruses and epidemics temporally and geographically across the WHO European Region. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed laboratory-confirmed influenza detections in ambulatory patients from sentinel sites. Data were aggregated by reporting entity and season (weeks 40-20) for 2010-2011 to 2017-2018. We explored geographical spread using correlation coefficients. RESULTS: There was variation in the regional influenza epidemics during the study period. Influenza A virus subtypes alternated in dominance, except for 2013-2014 during which both cocirculated, and only one season (2017-2018) was B virus dominant. The median start week for epidemics in the Region was week 50, the time to the peak ranged between four and 13 weeks, and the duration of the epidemic ranged between 19 and 25 weeks. There was evidence of a west-to-east spread across the Region during epidemics in 2010-2011 (r = .365; P = .019), 2012-2013 (r = .484; P = .001), 2014-2015 (r = .423; P = .006), and 2017-2018 (r = .566; P < .001) seasons. Variation in virus distribution and timing existed within reporting entities across seasons and across reporting entities for a given season. CONCLUSIONS: Aggregated influenza detection data from sentinel surveillance sites by season between 2010 and 2018 have been presented for the European Region for the first time. Substantial diversity exists between influenza epidemics. These data can inform prevention and control efforts at national, sub-national, and international levels. Aggregated, regional surveillance data from early affected reporting entities may provide an early warning function and be helpful for early season forecasting efforts.

Operational burden of implementing Salmonella Enteritidis and Typhimurium cluster detection using whole genome sequencing surveillance data in England: a retrospective assessment.

Since April 2014 all presumptive Salmonella isolates received by Public Health England (PHE) have been characterised using whole genome sequencing (WGS) and the genomic data generated used to identify clusters of infection. To inform the implementation and development of a national gastrointestinal infection surveillance system based on WGS we have retrospectively identified genetically related clusters of Salmonella Enteritidis and Salmonella Typhimurium infection over a one year period and determined the distribution of these clusters by PHE operational levels. Using a constrained WGS cluster definition based on single nucleotide polymorphism distance, case frequency and temporal spread we demonstrate that the majority of clusters spread to multiple PHE operational levels. The greatest investigative burden is on national level staff investigating small, geographically dispersed clusters. We also demonstrate that WGS identifies long-running, slowly developing clusters that may previously have remained undetected. This analysis also indicates likely increased workload for local health protection teams and will require an operational strategy to balance limited human resources with the public health importance of investigating small, geographically contained clusters of highly related cases. While there are operational challenges to its implementation, integrated cluster detection based on WGS from local to international level will provide further improvements in the identification of, response to and control of clusters of Salmonella spp. with public health significance.

Whole-genome sequencing revealed concurrent outbreaks of shigellosis in the English Orthodox Jewish Community caused by multiple importations of Shigella sonnei from Israel.

In December 2013, Public Health England (PHE) observed an increase in the number of cases of Shigella sonnei linked to the Orthodox Jewish Community (OJC). Ultimately, 52 cases of S. sonnei phage type (PT) P and PT7 were notified between November 2013 and July 2014. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was performed on a HiSeq 2500 platform (Illumina) on isolates of S. sonnei submitted to PHE during the investigation. Quality trimmed sequence reads were mapped to a reference genome using BWA-MEM, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were identified using GATK2. Analysis of the core genome SNP positions (>90 % consensus, minimum depth 10×, MQ≥30) revealed that isolates linked to the outbreak could be categorized as members of distinct monophyletic clusters (MPCs) representing concurrent regional outbreaks occurring in the OJCs across the United Kingdom. A dated phylogeny predicted the date of the most recent common ancestor of the MPCs to be approximately 3.1 years previously [95 % highest posterior density (HPD), 2.4-3.4]. Isolates of S. sonnei from cases from the OJCs in Israel included in the phylogeny, branched from nodes basal to the UK OJC outbreak clusters, indicating they were ancestral to the UK OJC isolates, and that the UK isolates represented multiple importations of S. sonnei into the UK population from Israel. The level of discrimination exhibited by WGS facilitated the identification of clusters of isolates within the closely related bacterial populations circulating in the OJC that may be linked to a unique point sources or transmission routes, thus enabling a more appropriate public health response and targeted interventions.

Recurrent seasonal outbreak of an emerging serotype of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC O55:H7 Stx2a) in the south west of England, July 2014 to September 2015.

The first documented British outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O55:H7 began in the county of Dorset, England, in July 2014. Since then, there have been a total of 31 cases of which 13 presented with haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS). The outbreak strain had Shiga toxin (Stx) subtype 2a associated with an elevated risk of HUS. This strain had not previously been isolated from humans or animals in England. The only epidemiological link was living in or having close links to two areas in Dorset. Extensive investigations included testing of animals and household pets. Control measures included extended screening, iterative interviewing and exclusion of cases and high risk contacts. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) confirmed that all the cases were infected with similar strains. A specific source could not be identified. The combination of epidemiological investigation and WGS indicated, however, that this outbreak was possibly caused by recurrent introductions from a local endemic zoonotic source, that a highly similar endemic reservoir appears to exist in the Republic of Ireland but has not been identified elsewhere, and that a subset of cases was associated with human-to-human transmission in a nursery.

ESBL-Producing and Macrolide-Resistant Shigella sonnei Infections among Men Who Have Sex with Men, England, 2015.

In England in 2015, Shigella sonnei isolates from men who have sex with men produced extended-spectrum ß-lactamases and exhibited macrolide resistance. Whole-genome sequencing showed a close relationship among the isolates, which harbored a plasmid that was previously identified in a shigellosis outbreak among this population but has acquired a mobile element.

Taste and Safety: Is the Exceptional Cuisine Offered by High End Restaurants Paralleled by High Standards of Food Safety?

INTRODUCTION: Restaurant guides such as the Good Food Guide Top 50 create a hierarchy focussing on taste and sophistication. Safety is not explicitly included. We used restaurant associated outbreaks to assess evidence for safety. METHODS: All foodborne disease outbreaks in England reported to the national database from 2000 to 2014 were used to compare the Top 50 restaurants (2015) to other registered food businesses using the Public Health England (PHE) outbreak database. Health Protection Teams were also contacted to identify any outbreaks not reported to the national database. Among Good Food Guide Top 50 restaurants, regression analysis estimated the association between outbreak occurrence and position on the list. RESULTS: Four outbreaks were reported to the PHE national outbreak database among the Top 50 giving a rate 39 times higher (95% CI 14.5-103.2) than other registered food businesses. Eight outbreaks among the 44 English restaurants in the Top 50 were identified by direct contact with local Health Protection Teams. For every ten places higher ranked, Top 50 restaurants were 66% more likely to have an outbreak (Odds Ratio 1.66, 95% CI 0.89-3.13). DISCUSSION: Top 50 restaurants were substantially more likely to have had reported outbreaks from 2000-2014 than other food premises, and there was a trend for higher rating position to be associated with higher probability of reported outbreaks. Our findings, that eating at some of these restaurants may pose an increased risk to health compared to other dining out, raises the question of whether food guides should consider aspects of food safety alongside the clearly important complementary focus on taste and other aspects of the dining experience.

Don't Count Your Chicken Livers: an Outbreak of Campylobacter sp. Not Associated with Chicken Liver Parfait, England, November 2013.

In England, several recent campylobacter outbreaks have been associated with poultry liver consumption. Following a lunch event in a hotel in Surrey in November 2013 where chicken liver parfait was served, guests reported having gastrointestinal symptoms. A retrospective cohort study showed 46 of 138 guests became unwell, with a median incubation period of two days and for 11 cases campylobacter infection was laboratory confirmed. Food item analysis identified an association between illness and consumption of roast turkey (aOR=3.02 p=0.041) or jus (aOR=3.55 p=0.045), but not with chicken liver parfait (OR=0.39 p=0.405). The environmental risk assessment did not identify non-compliance with standard food practice guidelines. This study presents a point-source outbreak of campylobacter with a high attack rate and epidemiological analysis results show that the jus or roast turkey was the likely source of infection although this could not be confirmed by the environmental assessment. Consuming the chicken liver dish was not a risk factor for developing symptoms as was initially hypothesised. Prior knowledge on the association between poultry liver food items and campylobacter outbreaks should not overly influence an outbreak investigation to ensure the true aetiology is identified and on-going public health risk is minimised.

The "case-chaos study" as an adjunct or alternative to conventional case-control study methodology.

Case-control studies are important in infectious disease epidemiology for rapidly identifying and controlling risks, but challenges, including the need for speed, can place practical restrictions on control selection and recruitment. The biased comparisons that result can hamper or, worse, mislead investigators. Following a 2009 outbreak of Shiga-like toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 infection associated with a petting farm in southeast England, it was hypothesized that case behavior alone could be used to identify risks. Case-patients' exposures were randomized on a case-by-case basis, and the resulting permuted data were compared with the actual events preceding illness by conditional logistic regression analysis. There was good agreement between the risks identified by using our new method and the risks elicited in the original outbreak case-control studies. This was also the case in analysis of 2 further historical outbreaks. These initial findings suggest that the technique, which we have called the "case-chaos" technique, appeared to be useful in this setting. Analysis of simulated data supports this view. Circumventing the need for traditional control data has the potential to reduce outbreak investigation lead times, leading to earlier interventions and reduced morbidity and mortality. However, further validation is necessary, coupled with an awareness of limitations of the method.