ABSTRACT
Objective: In TIA and stroke patients with carotid stenosis, estimations of future ipsilateral ischemic stroke risk and treatment decisions are currently primarily based on the degree of stenosis. Intraplaque hemorrhage (IPH), which can be readily visualized on carotid MRI, is increasingly established as an easy to assess and a very strong and independent predictor for ipsilateral stroke risk, stronger than any clinical risk factor. We developed a clinical prediction model (IMPROVE) incorporating IPH, degree of stenosis, and clinical risk factors to select patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis at high risk for stroke. Methods: IMPROVE was developed on pooled clinical and MRI data from five cohort studies of 760 recent TIA or minor stroke patients with carotid plaque who received optimal medical treatment. We used Cox proportional hazards models to determine the coefficients of IMPROVE. IMPROVE was internally validated using bootstrapping and converted to one- and three-year ipsilateral ischemic stroke risk. Results: The development dataset contained 65 ipsilateral incident ischemic strokes that occurred during a median follow-up of 1.2 years (IQR: 0.5-4.1). The IMPROVE model includes five predictors, which are in order of importance: degree of stenosis, presence of IPH on MRI, classification of last event (cerebral vs ocular), sex, and age. Internal validation revealed a good accuracy (C-statistic: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.77-0.87) and no evidence for miscalibration (calibration slope: 0.93). Interpretation: Using presence of IPH on MRI and only four conventional parameters, the IMPROVE model provides accurate individual stroke risk estimates, which may facilitate stratification for revascularization.