The impact of introduction of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumococcal carriage in Nigeria.

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) protect against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among vaccinees. However, at population level, this protection is driven by indirect effects. PCVs prevent nasopharyngeal acquisition of vaccine-serotype (VT) pneumococci, reducing onward transmission. Each disease episode is preceded by infection from a carrier, so vaccine impacts on carriage provide a minimum estimate of disease reduction in settings lacking expensive IPD surveillance. We documented carriage prevalence and vaccine coverage in two settings in Nigeria annually (2016-2020) following PCV10 introduction in 2016. Among 4,684 rural participants, VT carriage prevalence fell from 21 to 12% as childhood (<5 years) vaccine coverage rose from 7 to 84%. Among 2,135 urban participants, VT carriage prevalence fell from 16 to 9% as uptake rose from 15 to 94%. Within these ranges, carriage prevalence declined with uptake. Increasing PCV10 coverage reduced pneumococcal infection at all ages, implying at least a comparable reduction in IPD.

The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region. METHODS: Combining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020. RESULTS: In February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 34% (8-54). As the COVID-19 contact restrictions are nearly fully eased, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak will increase to 38% (19-54), 46% (30-59), and 54% (43-64) assuming a 15%, 50%, and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 43% (25-56), 54% (43-63), and 67% (59-72) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of all restrictions can be overcome by conducting a SIA with ≥ 95% coverage in under-fives. CONCLUSION: While contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once these restrictions are lifted. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks given the roll-back of contact restrictions in Kenya.