Estimation of HIV prevalence and burden in Nigeria: a Bayesian predictive modelling study.

Background: The cost of population-based surveys is high and obtaining funding for a national population-based survey may take several years, with follow-up surveys taking up to five years. Survey-based prevalence estimates are prone to bias owing to survey non-participation, as not all individuals eligible to participate in a survey may be reached, and some of those who are contacted do not consent to HIV testing. This study describes how Bayesian statistical modeling may be used to estimate HIV prevalence at the state level in a reliable and timely manner. Methods: We analysed national HIV testing services (HTS) data for Nigeria from October 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021, to derive state-level HIV seropositivity rates. We used a Bayesian linear model with normal prior distribution and Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate HIV state-level prevalence for the 36 states +1 FCT in Nigeria. Our outcome variable was the HIV seropositivity rates and we adjusted for demographic, economic, biological, and societal covariates collected from the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS), 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) and 2016-17 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). The estimated population of 15-49 years olds in each state was multiplied by estimates from the estimated prevalence to generate state-level HIV burden. Findings: Our estimated national HIV prevalence was 2.1% (95% CI: 1.5-2.7%) among adults aged 15-49 years in Nigeria, which corresponds to approximately 2 million people living with HIV, compared to previous national HIV prevalence estimates of 1.4% from the 2018 NAIIS and UNAIDS estimation and projection package PLHIV estimation of 1.8 million in 2022. Our modelled HIV prevalence in Nigeria varies by state, with Benue (5.7%, 95% CI: 5.0-6.3) having the highest prevalence, followed by Rivers (5.2%, 95% CI: 4.6-5.8%), Akwa Ibom (3.5%, 95% CI: 2.9-4.1%), Edo (3.4%, 95% CI: 2.9-4.0%) and Taraba (3.0%, 95% CI: 2.6-3.7%) placing fourth and fifth, respectively. Jigawa had the lowest HIV prevalence (0.3%), which was consistent with prior estimates. Interpretation: This model provides a comprehensive and flexible use of evidence to estimate state-level HIV seroprevalence for Nigeria using program data and adjusting for explanatory variables. Thus, investment in program data for HIV surveillance will provide reliable estimates for HIV sub-national monitoring and improve planning and interventions for epidemiologic control. Funding: This article was made possible by the support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).

From Paper Files to Web-Based Application for Data-Driven Monitoring of HIV Programs: Nigeria's Journey to a National Data Repository for Decision-Making and Patient Care.

BACKGROUND: Timely and reliable data are crucial for clinical, epidemiologic, and program management decision making. Electronic health information systems provide platforms for managing large longitudinal patient records. Nigeria implemented the National Data Repository (NDR) to create a central data warehouse of all people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) while providing useful functionalities to aid decision making at different levels of program implementation. OBJECTIVE: We describe the Nigeria NDR and its development process, including its use for surveillance, research, and national HIV program monitoring toward achieving HIV epidemic control. METHODS: Stakeholder engagement meetings were held in 2013 to gather information on data elements and vocabulary standards for reporting patient-level information, technical infrastructure, human capacity requirements, and information flow. Findings from these meetings guided the development of the NDR. An implementation guide provided common terminologies and data reporting structures for data exchange between the NDR and the electronic medical record (EMR) systems. Data from the EMR were encoded in extensible markup language and sent to the NDR over secure hypertext transfer protocol after going through a series of validation processes. RESULTS: By June 30, 2021, the NDR had up-to-date records of 1,477,064 (94.4%) patients receiving HIV treatment across 1,985 health facilities, of which 1,266,512 (85.7%) patient records had fingerprint template data to support unique patient identification and record linkage to prevent registration of the same patient under different identities. Data from the NDR was used to support HIV program monitoring, case-based surveillance and production of products like the monthly lists of patients who have treatment interruptions and dashboards for monitoring HIV test and start. CONCLUSION: The NDR enabled the availability of reliable and timely data for surveillance, research, and HIV program monitoring to guide program improvements to accelerate progress toward epidemic control.

Diagnosis and case finding according to key partner risk populations of people living with HIV in Nigeria: A retrospective analysis of community-led index partner testing services.

BACKGROUND: The HIV epidemic in Nigeria is concentrated in Key Populations (KP), people who inject drugs (PWID), men who have sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSW), and partners of people living with HIV. Due to stigma and discrimination, these groups have low access to HIV testing services (HTS) and linkage to treatment is challenging. To address this gap, index partner testing, targeting sexual contacts and injecting partners of KP index clients, was introduced in 2017. METHODS: The study was a retrospective analysis of community-led HIV index partner testing-involving review of secondary data from partner notification services registers. Between October 1, 2018, and September 30, 2019, HIV testing as part of index partner testing services was offered at nightclubs, hotels, and community-based ART clinics in the states of Akwa Ibom, Cross River, and Lagos. Index testing was assisted by peer navigators. We used provider and passive Partner Notification (PN) methods. In-person and social network methods were used to recruit partners of KP. We described the implementation of index partner testing services as part of the national KP program, analyzed PN delivery models, and calculated HIV seropositivity among persons who underwent Index Partner Testing. One-Way ANOVA and Tukey-HSD test were performed to determine whether the differences in mean HIV seropositivity between partners are statistically significant. FINDINGS: PN was predominantly done through provider referral 5,159 (68.3%) and passive/client referral 2,278 (30.1%). A total of 3,119 index partners; 1,322 FSW (42.4%), 1,255 MSM (40.2%) and 542 PWID (17.4%) identified 8,989 sexual and injecting partners (index partner ratio 1:2.9). Among the partners, 7,556 (84.1%) were first-time testers, and 79.4% (5,999) of male partners tested. Of the 3,753 (49.7%) partners who tested HIV-positive, 3,492 (93.0%) were enrolled in HIV care. HIV seropositivity rate was 65.5% (1,021/1,557) among females and 45.5% (2,732/5,999) among males and was disproportionately higher among PWID injecting partners 99.1% (581/586), PWID sexual partners 98.9% (433/438) and MSM sexual partners 95.6% (605/633) in Cross river compared with 71.4% (575/805) in FSW sexual partners. INTERPRETATIONS: Including index partner testing as part of a community-led HTS can help improve HIV case-finding approach for KP, particularly for reaching first-time testers, male KP, and persons not yet diagnosed with HIV. Scale-up of index partner testing within community-led HTS is essential for achieving the United Nations 95-95-95 goals. FUNDING: This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.

Geographical Disparities in HIV Seroprevalence Among Men Who Have Sex with Men and People Who Inject Drugs in Nigeria: Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The assessment of geographical heterogeneity of HIV among men who have sex with men (MSM) and people who inject drugs (PWID) can usefully inform targeted HIV prevention and care strategies. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to measure HIV seroprevalence and identify hotspots of HIV infection among MSM and PWID in Nigeria. METHODS: We included all MSM and PWID accessing HIV testing services across 7 prioritized states (Lagos, Nasarawa, Akwa Ibom, Cross Rivers, Rivers, Benue, and the Federal Capital Territory) in 3 geographic regions (North Central, South South, and South West) between October 1, 2016, and September 30, 2017. We extracted data from national testing registers, georeferenced all HIV test results aggregated at the local government area level, and calculated HIV seroprevalence. We calculated and compared HIV seroprevalence from our study to the 2014 integrated biological and behavioural surveillance survey and used global spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis to highlight patterns of HIV infection and identify areas of significant clustering of HIV cases. RESULTS: MSM and PWID had HIV seroprevalence rates of 12.14% (3209/26,423) and 11.88% (1126/9474), respectively. Global spatial autocorrelation Moran I statistics revealed a clustered distribution of HIV infection among MSM and PWID with a <5% and <1% likelihood that this clustered pattern could be due to chance, respectively. Significant clusters of HIV infection (Getis-Ord-Gi* statistics) confined to the North Central and South South regions were identified among MSM and PWID. Compared to the 2014 integrated biological and behavioural surveillance survey, our results suggest an increased HIV seroprevalence among PWID and a substantial decrease among MSM. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified geographical areas to prioritize for control of HIV infection among MSM and PWID, thus demonstrating that geographical information system technology is a useful tool to inform public health planning for interventions targeting epidemic control of HIV infection.

Research priorities to inform "Treat All" policy implementation for people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a consensus statement from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA).

INTRODUCTION: "Treat All" - the treatment of all people with HIV, irrespective of disease stage or CD4 cell count - represents a paradigm shift in HIV care that has the potential to end AIDS as a public health threat. With accelerating implementation of Treat All in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), there is a need for a focused agenda and research to identify and inform strategies for promoting timely uptake of HIV treatment, retention in care, and sustained viral suppression and addressing bottlenecks impeding implementation. METHODS: The Delphi approach was used to develop consensus around research priorities for Treat All implementation in SSA. Through an iterative process (June 2017 to March 2018), a set of research priorities was collectively formulated and refined by a technical working group and shared for review, deliberation and prioritization by more than 200 researchers, implementation experts, policy/decision-makers, and HIV community representatives in East, Central, Southern and West Africa. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The process resulted in a list of nine research priorities for generating evidence to guide Treat All policies, implementation strategies and monitoring efforts. These priorities highlight the need for increased focus on adolescents, men, and those with mental health and substance use disorders - groups that remain underserved in SSA and for whom more effective testing, linkage and care strategies need to be identified. The priorities also reflect consensus on the need to: (1) generate accurate national and sub-national estimates of the size of key populations and describe those who remain underserved along the HIV-care continuum; (2) characterize the timeliness of HIV care and short- and long-term HIV care continuum outcomes, as well as factors influencing timely achievement of these outcomes; (3) estimate the incidence and prevalence of HIV-drug resistance and regimen switching; and (4) identify cost-effective and affordable service delivery models and strategies to optimize uptake and minimize gaps, disparities, and losses along the HIV-care continuum, particularly among underserved populations. CONCLUSIONS: Reflecting consensus among a broad group of experts, researchers, policy- and decision-makers, PLWH, and other stakeholders, the resulting research priorities highlight important evidence gaps that are relevant for ministries of health, funders, normative bodies and research networks.

Partner HIV serostatus disclosure and determinants of serodiscordance among prevention of mother to child transmission clients in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Serodiscordance exists when the known HIV result of one member of a couple pair is positive while that of his/her partner is negative. In sub-Saharan Africa, in stable long-term couple partnerships (married or cohabiting), serodiscordance is a growing source of HIV-transmissions. This study aimed to ascertain across Nigeria, serodiscordance prevalence, partner HIV status disclosure and explore associations between suspected determinants and serodiscordance among PMTCT enrolled HIV positive pregnant women and their partners. METHODS: A retrospective Quality of Care performance evaluation was conducted in July 2013 among 544 HIV positive pregnant enrolees of PMTCT services in 62 comprehensive facilities across 5 of Nigeria's 6 geo-political zones. Data of client-partner pairs were abstracted from pre-existing medical records and analysed using chi-square statistics and logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 544 (22%) of 2499 clients with complete partner details were analysed. Clients' age ranged from 15 to 50 years with a mean of 30 years. Serodiscordant prevalence was 52% and chi-square test suggests no significant difference between serodiscordant and seroconcordant clients and their partners (p = 0.265). Serodiscordant rates were closely associated trend wise with national HIV sero-prevalence rates and the median CD4+ count was 425 ul/mm(3) (IQR: 290-606 ul/mm(3)). Similar proportion of clients (99%) received testing and agreed to disclose status to their partners. Yet, there was no association between clients agreement to disclose HIV status to their partners and these partners getting tested and receiving results (p = 0.919). Significantly, 87% of clients in concordant HIV positive relationships appeared to be symptomatic (WHO clinical stage 3 or 4) compared to 13% clients in HIV-discordant relationships (p < 0.003). Client's age and CD4+ count did not aptly predict serodiscordance (Wald = 0.011 and 0.436 respectively). However, the WHO clinical staging appeared to be a better predictor of serodiscordance and concordance than other variables (Wald = 3.167). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that clinical staging (WHO) could be a better predictor of client- partner pair discordant or concordant HIV serostatus. Early partner testing and notification can avert seroconversion, hence properly designed and mainstreamed interventions that target serodiscordant couples are essential.