Part 5. Public health and air pollution in Asia (PAPA): a combined analysis of four studies of air pollution and mortality.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, Asia has experienced rapid economic growth and a deteriorating environment caused by the increasing use of fossil fuels. Although the deleterious effects of air pollution from fossil-fuel combustion have been demonstrated in many Western nations, few comparable studies have been conducted in Asia. Time-series studies of daily mortality in Asian cities can contribute important new information to the existing body of knowledge about air pollution and health. Not only can these studies verify important health effects of air pollution in local regions in Asia, they can also help determine the relevance of existing air pollution studies to mortality and morbidity for policymaking and environmental controls. In addition, the studies can help identify factors that might modify associations between air pollution and health effects in various populations and environmental conditions. Collaborative multicity studies in Asia-especially when designed, conducted, and analyzed using a common protocol-will provide more robust air pollution effect estimates for the region as well as relevant, supportable estimates of local adverse health effects needed by environmental and public-health policymakers. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES: The Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA*) project, sponsored by the Health Effects Institute, consisted of four studies designed to assess the effects of air pollution on mortality in four large Asian cities, namely Bangkok, in Thailand, and Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Wuhan, in China. In the PAPA project, a Common Protocol was developed based on methods developed and tested in NMMAPS, APHEA, and time-series studies in the literature to help ensure that the four studies could be compared with each other and with previous studies by following an established protocol. The Common Protocol (found at the end of this volume) is a set of prescriptive instructions developed for the studies and used by the investigators in each city. It is flexible enough to allow for adjustments in methods to optimize the fit of health-effects models to each city's data set. It provides the basis for generating reproducible results in each city and for meta-estimates from combined data. By establishing a common methodology, factors that might influence the differences in results from previous studies can more easily be explored. Administrative support was provided to ensure that the highest quality data were used in the analysis. It is anticipated that the PAPA results will contribute to the international scientific discussion of how to conduct and interpret time-series studies of air pollution and will stimulate the development of high-quality routine systems for recording daily deaths and hospital admissions for time-series analysis. METHODS: Mortality data were retrieved from routine databases with underlying causes of death coded using the World Health Organization (WHO) International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision or 10th revision (ICD-9, ICD-10). Air quality measurements included nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm (PM10), and ozone (O3) and were obtained from several fixed-site air monitoring stations that were located throughout the metropolitan areas of the four cities and that met the standards of procedures for quality assurance and quality control carried out by local government units in each city. Using the Common Protocol, an optimized core model was established for each city to assess the effects of each of the four air pollutants on daily mortality using generalized linear modeling with adjustments for time trend, seasonality, and other time-varying covariates by means of a natural-spline smoothing function. The models were adjusted to suit local situations by correcting for influenza activity, autocorrelation, and special weather conditions. Researchers in Hong Kong, for example, used influenza activity based on frequency of respiratory mortality; researchers in Hong Kong and Shanghai used autoregressive terms for daily outcomes at lag days; and researchers in Wuhan used additional smoothing for periods with extreme weather conditions. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: For mortality due to all natural (nonaccidental) causes at all ages, the effects of air pollutants per 10-microg/m3 increase in concentration was found to be higher in Bangkok than in the three Chinese cities, with the exception of the effect of NO2 in Wuhan. The magnitude of the effects for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality were generally higher than for all natural mortality at all ages. In addition, the effects associated with PM10 and O3 in all natural, cardiovascular; and respiratory mortality were found to be higher in Bangkok than in the three Chinese cities. The explanation for these three findings might be related to consistently higher daily mean temperatures in Bangkok, variations in average time spent outdoors by the susceptible populations, and the fact that less air conditioning is available and used in Bangkok than in the other cities. However, when pollutant concentrations were incorporated into the excess risk estimates through the use of interquartile range (IQR), the excess risk was more comparable across the four cities. We found that the increases in effects among older age groups were greater in Bangkok than in the other three cities. After excluding data on extremely high concentrations of PM10 in Bangkok, the effect estimate associated with PM10 concentrations decreased in Bangkok (suggesting a convex relationship between risk and PM10, where risk levels off at high concentrations) instead of increasing, as it did in the other cities. This leveling off of effect estimates at high concentrations might be related to differences in vulnerability and exposure of the population to air pollution as well as to the sources of the air pollutant. IMPLICATIONS OF THE STUDY: The PAPA project is the first coordinated Asian multicity air pollution study ever published; this signifies the beginning of an era of cooperation and collaboration in Asia, with the development of a common protocol for coordination, data management, and analysis. The results of the study demonstrated that air pollution in Asia is a significant public health burden, especially given the high concentrations of pollutants and high-density populations in major cities. When compared with the effect estimates reported in the research literature of North America and Western Europe, the study's effect estimates for PM10 were generally similar and the effect estimates for gaseous pollutants were relatively higher. In Bangkok, however, a tropical city where total exposures to outdoor pollution might be higher than in most other cities, the observed effects were greater than those reported in the previous (i.e., Western) studies. In general, the results suggested that, even though social and environmental conditions across Asia might vary, it is still generally appropriate to apply to Asia the effect estimates for other health outcomes from previous studies in the West. The results also strongly support the adoption of the global air quality guidelines recently announced by WHO.

Coarse particles and mortality: evidence from a multi-city study in California.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality associated with short-term coarse particle exposure in California while addressing issues of exposure misclassification by limiting the study to those residing near a pollution monitor. METHODS: Deaths in 15 California counties from 1999 to 2005 were linked to coarse particulate monitoring data. Case deaths were limited to those residing in a zip code within 20 km of a pollution monitor. We used conditional logistic regression with a case-crossover design to estimate county-specific effects of coarse particles. County estimates were then pooled using random-effects meta-analysis to create overall study estimates. Effects specific to race and educational status were also analysed. RESULTS: We observed an increased excess risk (ER) of both all-cause mortality (ER per 10 microg/m(3) = 0.7%, 95% CI -0.1 to 1.5) and cardiovascular mortality (ER per 10 microg/m(3) = 1.3%, 95% CI 0.1 to 2.5) from a 2-day lag in coarse particles. Greater effects were observed among Hispanics and non-high school graduates. Adjustment for fine particles and decreasing the inclusion buffer to 10 km did not substantively alter the results. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides further evidence of an association between acute exposure to coarse particles and mortality, and supports the hypothesis that lower socioeconomic status groups may be more susceptible to its effects.

The relationship of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions to the southern California wildfires of 2003.

OBJECTIVE: There is limited information on the public health impact of wildfires. The relationship of cardiorespiratory hospital admissions (n = 40 856) to wildfire-related particulate matter (PM(2.5)) during catastrophic wildfires in southern California in October 2003 was evaluated. METHODS: Zip code level PM(2.5) concentrations were estimated using spatial interpolations from measured PM(2.5), light extinction, meteorological conditions, and smoke information from MODIS satellite images at 250 m resolution. Generalised estimating equations for Poisson data were used to assess the relationship between daily admissions and PM(2.5), adjusted for weather, fungal spores (associated with asthma), weekend, zip code-level population and sociodemographics. RESULTS: Associations of 2-day average PM(2.5) with respiratory admissions were stronger during than before or after the fires. Average increases of 70 microg/m(3) PM(2.5) during heavy smoke conditions compared with PM(2.5) in the pre-wildfire period were associated with 34% increases in asthma admissions. The strongest wildfire-related PM(2.5) associations were for people ages 65-99 years (10.1% increase per 10 microg/m(3) PM(2.5), 95% CI 3.0% to 17.8%) and ages 0-4 years (8.3%, 95% CI 2.2% to 14.9%) followed by ages 20-64 years (4.1%, 95% CI -0.5% to 9.0%). There were no PM(2.5)-asthma associations in children ages 5-18 years, although their admission rates significantly increased after the fires. Per 10 microg/m(3) wildfire-related PM(2.5), acute bronchitis admissions across all ages increased by 9.6% (95% CI 1.8% to 17.9%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease admissions for ages 20-64 years by 6.9% (95% CI 0.9% to 13.1%), and pneumonia admissions for ages 5-18 years by 6.4% (95% CI -1.0% to 14.2%). Acute bronchitis and pneumonia admissions also increased after the fires. There was limited evidence of a small impact of wildfire-related PM(2.5) on cardiovascular admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Wildfire-related PM(2.5) led to increased respiratory hospital admissions, especially asthma, suggesting that better preventive measures are required to reduce morbidity among vulnerable populations.

The impact of components of fine particulate matter on cardiovascular mortality in susceptible subpopulations.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have demonstrated associations between daily mortality and ambient particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (fine particles or PM2.5). Few, however, have examined the relative toxicities of PM2.5 constituents, including elemental carbon and organic carbon (EC and OC, respectively), nitrates and transition metals. There is also little information about whether associations between PM2.5 constituents and mortality are modified by socioeconomic and demographic factors. AIM: To examine associations of daily cardiovascular mortality with PM2.5 and its constituents after stratification by gender, race/ethnicity and education, using data from six California counties during 2000 to 2003. METHODS: The association of daily counts of cardiovascular mortality with PM2.5 components was analysed using time-series regression analyses. Poisson models with natural splines were used to control for time-varying covariates such as season and weather. Separate models were run after stratification by gender, race/ethnicity (White, Hispanic, Black) and education (high school graduation or not). Models were run for each county and results were combined using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Daily counts of cardiovascular mortality were associated with PM2.5 and several of its species including EC, OC, nitrates, sulphates, potassium, copper and iron. For many of these species, there were significantly higher effect estimates among those with lower educational attainment and Hispanic individuals. For example, while essentially no association was observed for individuals who graduated from high school, an interquartile change in several of the components of PM2.5 was associated with a 3-5% increase in daily mortality among non-high school graduates. CONCLUSION: There is evidence that several PM2.5 constituents may represent important contributors to cardiovascular mortality. Many of these constituents are generated by motor vehicles, especially those with diesel engines, and by residential wood combustion. In addition, factors associated with low educational attainment may increase susceptibility to PM2.5 and its components.

Air pollution and hospital admissions for respiratory conditions in Rome, Italy.

Most of the evidence regarding the association between particulate air pollution and emergency room visits or hospital admissions for respiratory conditions and asthma comes from the USA. European time-series analyses have suggested that gaseous air pollutants are important determinants of acute hospitalization for respiratory conditions, at least as important as particulate mass. The association between daily mean levels of suspended particles and gaseous pollutants (sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, ozone) was examined. The daily emergency hospital admissions for respiratory conditions in the metropolitan area of Rome during 1995-1997 were also recorded. Daily counts of hospital admissions for total respiratory conditions (43 admissions day(-1)), acute respiratory infections including pneumonia (18 day(-1)), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (13 day(-1)), and asthma (4.5 day(-1)) among residents of all ages and among children (0-14 yrs) were analysed. The generalized additive models included spline smooth functions of the day of study, mean temperature, mean humidity, influenza epidemics, and indicator variables for day of the week and holidays. Total respiratory admissions were significantly associated with same-day level of NO2 (2.5% increase per interquartile range (IQR) change, 22.3 microg x m(-3)) and CO (2.8% increase per IQR, 1.5 mg x m(-3)). No effect was found for particulate matter and SO2, whereas O3 was associated with admissions only among children (lag 1, 5.5% increase per IQR, 23.9 microg x m3). The effect of NO2 was stronger on acute respiratory infections (lag 0, 4.0% increase) and on asthma among children (lag 1, 10.7% increase). The admissions for all ages for asthma and COPD were associated only with same-day level of CO (5.5% and 4.3% increase, respectively). Multipollutant models confirmed the role of CO on all respiratory admissions, including asthma and COPD, and that of NO2 on acute respiratory infections. Among children, O3 remained a strong indicator of acute respiratory infections. Carbon monoxide and photochemical pollutants (nitrogen dioxide, ozone) appear to be determinants of acute respiratory conditions in Rome. Since carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide are good indicators of combustion products from traffic related sources, the detected effect may be due to unmeasured fine and ultrafine particles.

Air pollution and respiratory symptoms: results from three panel studies in Bangkok, Thailand.

Several studies in North American cities have reported associations between air pollution and respiratory symptoms. Replicating these studies in cities with very different population and weather characteristics is a useful way of addressing uncertainties and strengthening inferences of causality. To this end we examined the responses of three different panels to particulate matter (PM) air pollution in Bangkok, Thailand, a tropical city characterized by a very warm and humid climate. Panels of schoolchildren, nurses, and adults were asked to report daily upper and lower respiratory symptoms for 3 months. Concentrations of daily PM(10) (PM with a mass median aerodynamic diameter less than 10 microm) and PM(2.5) (airborne particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 microm) were collected at two sites. Generally, associations were found between these pollution metrics and the daily occurrence of both upper and lower respiratory symptoms in each of the panels. For example, an interquartile increase of 45 microg/m(3) in PM(10) was associated with about a 50% increase in lower respiratory symptoms in the panel of highly exposed adults, about 30% in the children, and about 15% in the nurses. These estimates were not appreciably altered by changes in the specification of weather variables, stratification by temperature, or inclusion of individual characteristics in the models; however, time trends in the data cause some uncertainty about the magnitude of the effect of PM on respiratory symptoms. These pollutants were also associated with the first day of a symptom episode in both adult panels but not in children. The estimated odds ratios are generally consistent with and slightly higher than the findings of previous studies conducted in the United States.

Air pollution and exacerbation of asthma in African-American children in Los Angeles.

Significant increases in asthma morbidity and mortality in the United States have occurred since the 1970s, particularly among African-Americans. Exposure to various environmental factors, including air pollutants and allergens, has been suggested as a partial explanation of these trends. To examine relations between several air pollutants and asthma exacerbation in African-Americans, we recruited a panel of 138 children in central Los Angeles. We recorded daily data on respiratory symptoms and medication use for 13 weeks and examined these data in conjunction with data on ozone (O3) nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), meteorological variables, pollens, and molds. Using generalized estimating equations, we found associations between respiratory symptom occurrence and several environmental factors. For example, new episodes of cough were associated with exposure to PM10 (OR = 1.25; 95% CI = 1.12-1.39; interquartile range [IQR] = 17 microg/m3, 24-hour average), PM2.5 (OR = 1.10; 95% CI = 1.03-1.18; IQR = 30 microg/m3, 12-hour average), NO2, and the molds Cladosporium and Alternaria, but not with exposure to O3 or pollen. The factors PM10 and O3 were associated with the use of extra asthma medication. For this population several bioaerosols and air pollutants had effects that may be clinically significant.

Coarse and fine particles and daily mortality in the Coachella Valley, California: a follow-up study.

Many epidemiological studies provide evidence of an association between ambient particles, measured as PM10, and daily mortality. Most of these studies have been conducted in urban areas where PM10 is highly correlated with and dominated by fine particles less than 2.5 microm in diameter (PM2.5). Fewer studies have investigated impacts associated with the fraction of coarse mode particles (between 2.5 and 10 microm in diameter). In a previous study using data from 1989 through 1992 in the Coachella Valley, a desert resort and retirement area east of Los Angeles, we reported associations between PM10 and several different measures of mortality [Ostro B.D., Hurley S., and Lipsett M.J. Air pollution and daily mortality in the Coachella Valley, California: a study of PM10 dominated by coarse particles. Environ. Res. 1999: 81: 231-238]. In this arid environment, coarse particles of geologic origin are highly correlated with and comprise approximately 60% of PM10, increasing to >90% during wind events. This study was intended to repeat the earlier investigation using 10 years (1989-1998) of daily data on mortality and PM10. The last 2.5 years of data also included daily measures of PM2.5, allowing examination of size-specific impacts. To ensure adequate statistical power, we attempted to develop predictive models for both fine and coarse particles to use in analyses of the full 10-year period. An acceptable fit was found only for coarse particles, which were found to be a cubic function of PM10 (R2 = 0.95). Outcome variables included several measures of daily mortality, including all-cause (minus accidents and homicides), cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. Multivariate Poisson regression analyses using generalized additive models were employed to explain the variation in these endpoints, controlling for temperature, humidity, day of the week, season, and time, using locally weighted smoothing techniques. Pollution lags of up to 4 days were examined. Several pollutants were associated with all-cause mortality, including PM2.5, carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide. More consistent results were found for cardiovascular-specific mortality, for which associations were found for coarse particles (RR = 1.02; 95% C.I., 1.01-1.04), PM10 (RR = 1.03; 95% C.I., 1.01-1.05). None of the pollutants was associated with respiratory-specific mortality. Ozone was not associated with any of the mortality outcomes. These findings are generally consistent with those we previously reported for the Coachella Valley for the period 1989-1992, demonstrating associations between several measures of particulate matter and daily mortality in an environment in which particulate concentrations are dominated by the coarse fraction.

Indoor/outdoor PM10 and PM2.5 in Bangkok, Thailand.

Twenty-four-hour averaged PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were obtained by using 4-liter-per-minute-pumps and impactors in microenvironments of a busy shopping district and a university hospital campus. In both areas, most people live directly adjacent to their worksites--minimizing the need to measure commuting exposure as part of total daily exposure. Co-located samplers were set in indoor microenvironments, the near-ambient zone of the households, and at nearby streetside central ambient monitoring stations. Smoking and use of other indoor PM sources were recorded daily via questionnaires. Consistent with previous studies, smoking and the use of charcoal stoves increased indoor particulate matter levels. The sampled air-conditioned hospital area had substantially lower particle concentrations than outdoors. A simple total exposure model was used to estimate the human exposure. The averaged ratios of co-located PM2.5/PM10 concentrations in various microenvironments are reported for each location. A single daily indoor average PM10 concentration for all households measured in a given sampling day is calculated for correlation analysis. Results showed that day-to-day fluctuations of these calculated indoor PM10 levels correlated well with near-ambient data and moderately well with ambient data collected at the nearby central monitoring site. This implies that ambient monitors are able to capture the daily variations of indoor PM levels or even personal exposure and may help explain the robust association of ambient PM levels and health effects found in many epidemiological studies. Absolute PM exposures, however, were substantially underestimated by ambient monitors in the shopping district, probably because of strong local sources.

Air pollution and daily mortality in the Coachella Valley, California: a study of PM10 dominated by coarse particles.

Many epidemiological studies provide evidence of an association between airborne particles, measured as PM10 (particulate matter less than 10 microm in diameter), and daily morbidity and mortality. Most of these studies have been conducted in urban areas where PM10 consists primarily of fine particles (<2.5 microm in diameter). Few studies have investigated impacts associated with coarse mode particles (>2.5 microm in diameter). We investigated associations between PM10 and daily mortality in the Coachella Valley, a desert resort and retirement area east of Los Angeles, where coarse particles of geologic origin typically comprise approximately 50-60% of PM10 and can exceed 90% during wind events. Our analysis utilized daily data on mortality from 1989 through 1992 as well as several pollutant and meteorological variables, including PM10, nitrates, sulfates, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, temperature, and relative humidity. Outcome variables included several measures of daily mortality, including all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, and counts of deaths for those above age 50. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to explain these health endpoints, controlling for temperature, humidity, day of the week, season, and time, using locally weighted smoothing techniques. The analysis indicated statistically significant associations between PM10 (2- or 3-day lags) and each measure of mortality. The results were robust to various model specifications, correction for autocorrelation and overdispersion, and analysis of influential observations. A 10 microg/m3 change in daily PM10 was associated with an approximately 1% increase in mortality, which is of similar magnitude to particle-associated impacts identified in urban areas. Thus, our findings provide evidence for a mortality effect of PM10 in an area where the particulate mass is dominated by coarse particles.

Air pollution and health effects: A study of medical visits among children in Santiago, Chile.

Many epidemiological studies conducted in the last several years have reported associations between exposure to airborne particulate matter, measured as PM10 (<10 microm in diameter), and daily morbidity and mortality. However, much of the evidence involves effects on the elderly population; there is less evidence about the effects of particulates on children, especially those under 2 years of age. To examine these issues, we conducted time-series analyses of 2 years of daily visits to primary health care clinics in Santiago, Chile, where counts were computed for either upper or lower respiratory symptoms and for cohorts of children 3-15 years of age and below age 2. Daily PM10 and ozone measurements and meteorological variables were available from instruments located in downtown Santiago. The multiple regression analysis indicates a statistically significant association between PM10 and medical visits for lower respiratory symptoms in children ages 3-15 and in children under age 2. PM10 is also associated with medical visits related to upper respiratory symptoms in the older cohort, while ozone is associated with visits related to both lower and upper respiratory symptoms in the older cohort. For children under age 2, a 50- microg/m3 change in PM10 (the approximate interquartile range) is associated with a 4-12% increase in lower respiratory symptoms. For children 3-15 years of age, the increase in lower respiratory symptoms ranges from 3 to 9% for a 50- microg/m3 change in PM10 and 5% per 50 ppb change in ozone. These magnitudes are similar to results from studies of children undertaken in Western industrial nations.

The impact of particulate matter on daily mortality in Bangkok, Thailand.

Several studies conducted in U.S. cities report an association between acute exposures to particulate matter (PM), usually measured as PM10, and mortality. Evidence of high concentrations of PM10 in Eastern Europe and in large metropolitan areas outside of the United States, such as Mexico City and Bangkok, underscores the need to determine whether these same associations occur outside of the United States. In addition, conducting studies of mortality and air pollution in regions that have distinctly different seasonal patterns than those of the United States provides an effective opportunity to assess the potentially confounding aspects of seasonality. Over the last few years, daily measures of ambient PM10 have been collected in Bangkok, a tropical city of over 6 million people. In this metropolitan area, PM10 consists largely of fine particles generated from diesel- and gasoline-powered automobiles, and from two-stroke motorcycle engines. Our analysis involved the examination of the relationship between PM10 and daily mortality for 1992 through 1995. In addition to counts of daily natural mortality (total mortality net of accidents, homicides, and suicides), the data were compiled to assess both cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, and natural mortality by age group. A multivariate Poisson regression model was used to explain daily mortality while controlling for several covariates including temperature, humidity, day of the week, season, and time. The analysis indicated a statistically significant association between PM10 and all of the alternative measures of mortality. The results suggest a 10-microgram/m3 change in daily PM10 is associated with a 1-2% increase in natural mortality, a 1-2% increase in cardiovascular mortality, and a 3-6% increase in respiratory mortality. These relative risks are generally consistent with or greater than those reported in most studies undertaken in the United States.

Air pollution and daily mortality in Rome, Italy.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the relation between several daily indicators of air pollution (particulates and gases) and daily mortality in the metropolitan area of Rome and in the central part of the city. METHODS: Time series analysis. The associations between daily concentrations of pollutants (particles, SO2, NO2, CO, O3) recorded by five fixed monitors and daily total mortality in the period from January 1992 to June 1995 were evaluated. The analysis included examination of the pollution effect on mortality by place of residence within the metropolitan area, by season, age, place of death (in and out a hospital), and cause of death (cardiovascular and respiratory disease). The Poisson model included loses smooth functions of the day of study, mean temperature, mean humidity, and indicator variables for day of the week and holidays. RESULTS: The mean daily number of deaths was 56.9 (44.8 among people > or = 65 years old). A mean of 36.3 deaths occurred in the city centre; 37.3 deaths a day were recorded in a hospital. Total mortality was significantly associated with a 10 micrograms/m3 increase in particles (0.4%) on that day (log 0), and with a 10 micrograms/m3 increase in NO2 at lag 1 (0.3%) and lag 2 (0.4%) (1 and 2 days before, respectively). The effect of particles (lag 0) and of NO2 (lag 2) on total mortality was higher among those living in the city centre (0.7% and 0.5%, respectively). The risk estimates were higher in the warmer season (1.0% and 1.1%, respectively), whereas no difference was found for those dying in or out of the hospital. The effect of particles was robust to a sensitivity analysis and to the inclusion of NO2 in the regression model. CONCLUSIONS: Increase in particulates and NO2, generated by the same mobile combustion sources, is associated with a short term increase in mortality in Rome. The effect is more evident among residents in the city centre, where the levels of exposure to pollutants recorded by fixed monitors are probably more reliable indicators of personal exposure.

Assessing the health benefits of reducing particulate matter air pollution in the United States.

Most Americans are exposed daily to airborne particulate matter (PM), a pollutant regulated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Current national standards are set for PM10 (particles less than 10 microns in diameter) and new standards have been promulgated for PM2.5 (particles less than 2.5 microns in diameter). Both particle sizes have been associated with mortality and morbidity in studies in the United States and elsewhere and an unambiguously safe level of ambient PM has been difficult to identify. PM10 concentrations have been reduced significantly in U.S. cities over the past two decades and relatively few locations continue to exceed national PM10 standards. However, the new PM2.5 standards will require further reductions in PM concentrations and additional expenditures for emission controls. Information about the health and economic benefits of achieving lower PM concentrations is important because: (1) expected costs of further PM reductions rise after the least-cost options are exhausted, and (2) there is uncertainty about the existence of a threshold safe level for PM. This paper develops and applies a methodology for quantifying the health benefits of potential reductions in ambient PM. Although uncertainties exist about several components of the methodology, the results indicate that the annual nationwide health benefits of achieving the new standards for PM2.5 relative to 1994-1996 ambient concentrations are likely to be between $14 billion and $55 billion annually, with a mean estimate of $32 billion.

Air pollution and emergency room visits for asthma in Santa Clara County, California.

During the winters of 1986-1987 through 1991-1992, rainfall throughout much of Northern California was subnormal, resulting in intermittent accumulation of air pollution, much of which was attributable to residential wood combustion (RWC). This investigation examined whether there was a relationship between ambient air pollution in Santa Clara County, California and emergency room visits for asthma during the winters of 1988-1989 through 1991-1992. Emergency room (ER) records from three acute-care hospitals were abstracted to compile daily visits for asthma and a control diagnosis (gastroenteritis) for 3-month periods during each winter. Air monitoring data included daily coefficient of haze (COH) and every-other-day particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter equal to or less than 10 microns (PM10, 24-hr average), as well as hourly nitrogen dioxide and ozone concentrations. Daily COH measurements were used to predict values for missing days of PM10 to develop a complete PM10 time series. Daily data were also obtained for temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. In time-series analyses using Poisson regression, consistent relationships were found between ER visits for asthma and PM10. Same-day nitrogen dioxide concentrations were also associated with asthma ER visits, while ozone was not. Because there was a significant interaction between PM10 and minimum temperature in this data set, estimates of relative risks (RRs) for PM10-associated asthma ER visits were temperature-dependent. A 60 micrograms/m3 change in PM10 (2-day lag) corresponded to RRs of 1.43 (95% CI = 1.18-1.69) at 20 degrees F, representing the low end of the temperature distribution, 1.27 (95% CI = 1.13-1.42) at 30 degrees F, and 1.11 (95% CI = 1.03-1.19) at 41 degrees F, the mean of the observed minimum temperature. ER visits for gastroenteritis were not significantly associated with any pollutant variable. Several sensitivity analyses, including the use of robust regressions and of nonparametric methods for fitting time trends and temperature effects in the data, supported these findings. These results demonstrate an association between ambient wintertime PM10 and exacerbations of asthma in an area where one of the principal sources of PM10 is RWC.

Air pollution and mortality: results from a study of Santiago, Chile.

In 1986, the U.S. EPA issued an air quality standard for particulate matter that included only particulates below 10 microns in diameter (PM10). Unfortunately, epidemiological research investigating the health effects associated with PM10 has been limited by the lack of available daily data from outdoor monitoring stations. Evidence of high concentrations of PM10 in Eastern Europe and in metropolitan areas such as Mexico City and Santiago, Chile underscores the need to evaluate the association between air pollution and mortality. Over the last few years, daily measures of ambient PM10 have been collected in Santiago. Our analysis examines the relationship between PM10 and daily mortality between 1989 and 1991. In addition to total daily mortality, the data were compiled to record total mortality for all males, all females, and those over 65, and mortality from either respiratory disease or cardiovascular disease. Multiple regression analysis was used to explain mortality, with particular attention to controlling for the influence of season and temperature. The results suggest a strong association between PM10 and all of the alternative measures of mortality. The association persists after controlling for daily minimum temperature and binary variables indicating temperature extremes, the day of the week, the month, and the year. Additional sensitivity analyses suggest a fairly robust relationship. In general, a 10 micrograms/m3 change in daily PM10 was associated with a 1% increase in mortality. This relative risk is consistent with the results of recent studies undertaken in the United States.

Fine particulate air pollution and mortality in two Southern California counties.

Several epidemiologic studies have reported associations between respiratory disease and particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (PM2.5) or fine particles. However, since daily fine particulate data from ambient monitors are seldom available, many studies have used estimates of PM2.5 based on visual range observed at local airports. This paper examines the impact of visibility-based estimates of PM2.5 on mortality from 1980 through 1986 in San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, located in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Multiple regression analysis was used to isolate the effects of estimated fine particles on mortality while controlling for covariates, including season, day of week, maximum temperature, and dew point. The results are dependent on season. During the summer quarters, there was a small but statistically significant association of estimated fine particles with both total mortality (RR = 1.03, 95% CI = 1.00-1.05, evaluated at the mean PM2.5 value of 32.5 microg/m3) and respiratory-specific mortality. However, for the year taken as a whole, estimated fine particles were not associated with mortality (RR = 1.00; 95% CI = 0.99-1.02). The use of estimated fine particles introduces additional measurement error into the analysis. During the summer quarters, an effect of ozone on mortality was also detected, but this association could be due to confounding with temperature. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the fine particulate association found during the summer quarters was robust to alternative estimates deriving fine particles from visual range, alternative regression specifications, functional forms, and exposure averaging times. These findings are consistent with another recent study of mortality in Los Angeles County and add to the other findings of associations between particulate matter and various respiratory diseases outcomes.

Chronic respiratory symptoms associated with estimated long-term ambient concentrations of fine particulates less than 2.5 microns in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) and other air pollutants.

Seventh-Day Adventists (SDAs), nonsmokers who had resided since 1966 in the vicinity of nine airports throughout California (n = 1,868), completed a standardized respiratory symptoms questionnaire in 1977 and again in 1987. For each participant, cumulative ambient concentrations of fine particulates less than 2.5 microns (microns) in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) were estimated from airport visibility data. Long-term ambient concentrations of estimated PM2.5 in excess of 20 micrograms per cubic meter (micrograms/m3) were found to be associated with development of definite symptoms of chronic bronchitis between 1977 and 1987. Estimated mean concentrations of PM2.5 were associated with increasing severity of respiratory symptoms related to general airway obstructive disease, chronic bronchitis, and asthma. It was felt that the observed relationships, with the exception of the relationship between increasing severity of chronic bronchitis symptoms and PM2.5, could be due to surrogate relationships with other ambient pollutants.

Estimating fine particulates less than 2.5 microns in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) from airport visibility data in California.

Methods were developed for estimating fine particulates less than 2.5 microns in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) from airport visibility data which detected seasonality and allowed for possible site- and season-specific regressions of PM2.5 on visibility. The methods were applied to nine airports in California in order to produce estimates of PM2.5 for the years 1966-1986 based on 1,767 paired PM2.5/visibility data points where PM2.5 had been measured at a monitoring station near the airport. General F-tests indicated that site- and season-specific regression equations resulted in a statistically significant reduction in residual error. The split halves correlation for estimating PM2.5 from visibility over all areas was 0.82. The methods were used to estimate long-term concentrations of ambient PM2.5 for an epidemiological cohort of 1,868 individuals.