Time Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Across the BRICS: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Key Nations With Emerging Economies Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) are emerging economies making up almost half the global population. We analyzed trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality across the BRICS and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. METHODS: Mortality estimates were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. We used age-period-cohort modeling to estimate cohort and period effects in CVD between 1992 and 2016. Period was defined as survey year, and period effects reflect population-wide exposure at a circumscribed point in time. Cohort effects are defined as differences in risks across birth cohort. Net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks were calculated. RESULTS: In 2016, there were 8.4 million CVD deaths across the BRICS. Between 1992 and 2016, the reduction in CVD age-standardized mortality rate in BRICS (-17%) was less than in North America (-39%). Eighty-eight percent of the increased number of all-cause deaths resulted from the increase in CVD deaths. The age-standardized mortality rate from stroke and hypertensive heart disease declined by approximately one-third across the BRICS, whereas ischemic heart disease increased slightly (2%). Brazil had the largest age-standardized mortality rate reductions across all CVD categories, with improvement both over time and in recent birth cohorts. South Africa was the only country where the CVD age-standardized mortality rate increased. Different age-related CVD mortality was seen in those ≥50 years of age in China, ≤40 years of age in Russia, 35 to 60 years of age in India, and ≥55 years of age in South Africa. Improving period and cohort risks for CVD mortality were generally found across countries, except for worsening period effects in India and greater risks for ischemic heart disease in Chinese cohorts born in the 1950s and 1960s. CONCLUSIONS: Except for Brazil, reductions of CVD mortality across the BRICS have been less than that in North America, such that China, India, and South Africa contribute an increasing proportion of global CVD deaths. Brazil's example suggests that prevention policies can both reduce the risks for younger birth cohorts and shift the risks for all age groups over time.

50-year mortality trends in children and young people: a study of 50 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Global attention has focused on mortality in children younger than 5 years. We analysed global mortality data for people aged 1-24 years across a 50-year period. METHODS: The WHO mortality database was used to obtain mortality data from 1955 to 2004, by age-group (1-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, and 20-24 years) and stratified by sex. To analyse change in mortality, we calculated mortality rates averaged over three 5-year periods (1955-59, 1978-82, and 2000-04) to investigate trends in deaths caused by communicable and non-communicable diseases and injury. FINDINGS: Data were available for 50 countries (ten high income, 22 middle income, eight low income, seven very low income, and three unclassified), grouped as Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, Central and South American countries, eastern European countries and ex-Soviet states, and other countries. In 1955, mortality was highest in the 1-4-year age-group. Across the study period, all-cause mortality reduced by 85-93% in children aged 1-4 years, 80-87% in children aged 5-9 years, and 68-78% in young people aged 10-14 years in OECD, Central and South American, and other countries. Smaller declines (41-48%) were recorded in young men (15-24 years), and by 2000-04, mortality in this group was two-to-three times higher than that in young boys (1-4 years). Mortality in young women (15-24 years) was equal to that of young girls (1-4 years) from 2000 onwards. Substantial declines in death caused by communicable diseases were seen in all age-groups and regions, although communicable and non-communicable diseases remained the main causes of death in children (1-9 years) and young women (10-24 years). Injury was the dominant cause of death in young men (10-24 years) in all regions by the late 1970s. INTERPRETATION: Adolescents and young adults have benefited from the epidemiological transition less than children have, with a reversal of traditional mortality patterns over the past 50 years. Future global health targets should include a focus on the health problems of people aged 10-24 years. FUNDING: None.