Comparing the Temporal Development of Wheat Spike Blast Epidemics in a Region of Bolivia Where the Disease Is Endemic.

Epidemics of wheat blast, caused the Triticum pathotype of Magnaporthe oryzae, were studied in the Santa Cruz del la Sierra region of Bolivia to quantify and compare the temporal dynamics of the disease under different growing conditions. Six plots of a susceptible wheat cultivar were planted at Cuatro Cañadas (CC), Okinawa 1 (OK1), and Okinawa 2 (OK2) in 2015. Spike blast incidence (INC) and severity (SEV) and leaf blast severity (LEAF) were quantified in each plot at regular intervals on a 10 × 10 grid (n = 100 clusters of spikes), beginning at head emergence (Feekes growth stage 10.5), for a total of nine assessments at CC, six at OK1, and six at OK2. Spike blast increased over time for 20 to 30 days before approaching a mean INC of 100% and a mean SEV of 60 to 75%. The logistic model was the most appropriate for describing the temporal dynamics of spike blast. The highest absolute rates of disease increase occurred earliest at OK1 and latest at OK2, and in all cases it coincided with major rain events. Estimated y0 values (initial blast intensity) were significantly (P < 0.05) higher at OK1 than at CC or OK2, whereas rL values (the logistic rate parameter) were significantly higher at OK2 than at CC or OK1. It took about 10 fewer days for SEV to reach 10, 15, or 20% at OK1 compared with OK2 and CC. Based on survival analyses, the survivor functions for time to 10, 15 and 20% SEV (ts) were significantly different between OK1 and the other locations, with the probabilities of SEV reaching the thresholds being highest at OK1. LEAF at 21 days after Feekes 10.5 had a significant effect on ts at OK1. For every 5% increase in LEAF, the chance of SEV reaching the thresholds by day 21 increased by 30 to 55%.

Meta-Analytic Modeling of the Decline in Performance of Fungicides for Managing Soybean Rust after a Decade of Use in Brazil.

An apparent decline of fungicide performance for the control of soybean rust in Brazil has been reported but the rate at which it has occurred has not been formally quantified. Control efficacy and yield response to three fungicides applied as single active ingredients (a.i.)-azoxystrobin (AZOX), cyproconazole (CYPR), and tebuconazole (TEBU)-and four applied as mixtures-AZOX+CYPR, picoxystrobin + CYPR, pyraclostrobin + epoxiconazole, and trifloxystrobin + prothioconazole (TRIF+PROT)-were summarized using network meta-analytic models fitted to mean severity and yield data from 250 trials (10-year period). The effect of year was tested on both variables in a meta-regression model. Overall control efficacy ranged from 56 to 84%; the three single-a.i. fungicides performed the poorest (56 to 62%). Yield increase for single-a.i. fungicides was as low as 30% but ranged from 47 to 65% for the premixes. Significant declines in both variables were detected for all fungicides except TRIF+PROT. For TEBU, control efficacy (yield response) declined the most: 78% (18%) to 54% (8%) from 2004-05 to 2013-14. The recent surge of resistant populations of Phakopsora pachyrhizi to both demethylation inhibitor and quinone outside inhibitor fungicides is likely the driving force behind a significant decline after 4 years of fungicide use.