Machine Learning To Stratify Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Risk among Hospitalized Patients with Community-Acquired Pneumonia.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is an uncommon but serious cause of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). A lack of validated MRSA CAP risk factors can result in overuse of empirical broad-spectrum antibiotics. We sought to develop robust models predicting the risk of MRSA CAP using machine learning using a population-based sample of hospitalized patients with CAP admitted to either a tertiary academic center or a community teaching hospital. Data were evaluated using a machine learning approach. Cases were CAP patients with MRSA isolated from blood or respiratory cultures within 72 h of admission; controls did not have MRSA CAP. The Classification Tree Analysis algorithm was used for model development. Model predictions were evaluated in sensitivity analyses. A total of 21 of 1,823 patients (1.2%) developed MRSA within 72 h of admission. MRSA risk was higher among patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) in the first 24 h who required mechanical ventilation than among ICU patients who did not require ventilatory support (odds ratio [OR], 8.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.4 to 32). MRSA risk was lower among patients admitted to ward units than among those admitted to the ICU (OR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.07 to 0.56) and lower among ICU patients without a history of antibiotic use in the last 90 days than among ICU patients with antibiotic use in the last 90 days (OR, 0.03; 95% CI, 0.002 to 0.59). The final machine learning model was highly accurate (receiver operating characteristic [ROC] area = 0.775) in training and jackknife validity analyses. We identified a relatively simple machine learning model that predicted MRSA risk in hospitalized patients with CAP within 72 h postadmission.

Individual target pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic attainment rates among meropenem-treated patients admitted to the ICU with hospital-acquired pneumonia.

OBJECTIVES: Critical illness reduces ß-lactam pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) attainment. We sought to quantify PK/PD attainment in patients with hospital-acquired pneumonia. METHODS: Meropenem plasma PK data (n = 70 patients) were modelled, PK/PD attainment rates were calculated for empirical and definitive targets, and between-patient variability was quantified [as a coefficient of variation (CV%)]. RESULTS: Attainment of 100% T>4×MIC was variable for both empirical (CV% = 92) and directed (CV% = 33%) treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Individualization is required to achieve suggested PK/PD targets in critically ill patients.

Comparative Risk of Incident Coronary Heart Disease Across Chronic Inflammatory Diseases.

Background: Chronic inflammatory diseases (CIDs) are considered risk enhancing factors for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, sparse data exist regarding relative CHD risks across CIDs. Objective: Determine relative differences in CHD risk across multiple CIDs: psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis (RA), systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), systemic sclerosis (SSc), and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Methods: The cohort included patients with CIDs and controls without CID in an urban medical system from 2000 to 2019. Patients with CIDs were frequency-matched with non-CID controls on demographics, hypertension, and diabetes. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic heart disease, and/or coronary revascularization based on validated administrative codes. Multivariable-adjusted Cox models were used to determine the risk of incident CHD and MI for each CID relative to non-CID controls. In secondary analyses, we compared CHD risk by disease severity within each CID. Results: Of 17,049 patients included for analysis, 619 had incident CHD (202 MI) over an average of 4.4 years of follow-up. The multivariable-adjusted risk of CHD was significantly higher for SLE [hazard ratio (HR) 1.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2, 3.2] and SSc (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.2, 3.9). Patients with SLE also had a significantly higher risk of MI (HR 3.6, 95% CI 1.9, 6.8). When CIDs were categorized by markers of disease severity (C-reactive protein for all CIDs except HIV, for which CD4 T cell count was used), greater disease severity was associated with higher CHD risk across CIDs. Conclusions: Patients with SLE and SSc have a higher risk of CHD. CHD risk with HIV, RA, psoriasis, and IBD may only be elevated in those with greater disease severity. Clinicians should personalize CHD risk and treatment based on type and severity of CID.

Circuits between infected macrophages and T cells in SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.

Some patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) develop severe pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome1 (ARDS). Distinct clinical features in these patients have led to speculation that the immune response to virus in the SARS-CoV-2-infected alveolus differs from that in other types of pneumonia2. Here we investigate SARS-CoV-2 pathobiology by characterizing the immune response in the alveoli of patients infected with the virus. We collected bronchoalveolar lavage fluid samples from 88 patients with SARS-CoV-2-induced respiratory failure and 211 patients with known or suspected pneumonia from other pathogens, and analysed them using flow cytometry and bulk transcriptomic profiling. We performed single-cell RNA sequencing on 10 bronchoalveolar lavage fluid samples collected from patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) within 48 h of intubation. In the majority of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, the alveolar space was persistently enriched in T cells and monocytes. Bulk and single-cell transcriptomic profiling suggested that SARS-CoV-2 infects alveolar macrophages, which in turn respond by producing T cell chemoattractants. These T cells produce interferon-γ to induce inflammatory cytokine release from alveolar macrophages and further promote T cell activation. Collectively, our results suggest that SARS-CoV-2 causes a slowly unfolding, spatially limited alveolitis in which alveolar macrophages containing SARS-CoV-2 and T cells form a positive feedback loop that drives persistent alveolar inflammation.

Differential Associations of Chronic Inflammatory Diseases With Incident Heart Failure.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to compare the risks of incident heart failure (HF) among a variety of chronic inflammatory diseases (CIDs) and to determine whether risks varied by severity of inflammation within each CID. BACKGROUND: Individuals with CIDs are at elevated risk for cardiovascular diseases, but data are limited regarding risk for HF. METHODS: An electronic health records database from a large urban medical system was examined, comparing individuals with CIDs with frequency-matched controls without CIDs, all of whom were receiving regular outpatient care. Rates of incident HF were determined by using the Kaplan-Meier method and subsequently used multivariate-adjusted proportional hazards models to compare HF risks for each CID. Exploratory analyses determined HF risks by proxy measurement of CID severity. RESULTS: Of 37,636 patients (n = 18,278 patients with CIDs; and n = 19,358 controls without CIDs) there were 960 incident HF cases over a median of 3.6 years. Risks for incident HF were significantly or borderline significantly elevated for patients with systemic sclerosis (hazard ratio [HR]: 7.26; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.72 to 9.21; p < 0.01), systemic lupus erythematosus (HR: 3.15; 95% CI: 2.41 to 4.11; p < 0.01), rheumatoid arthritis (HR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.71; p < 0.01), and human immunodeficiency virus (HR: 1.28; 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.66; p = 0.06). There was no association between psoriasis or inflammatory bowel disease and incident HF, although patients with those CIDs with higher levels of C-reactive protein had higher risks for HF than controls. CONCLUSIONS: Systemic sclerosis and systemic lupus erythematosus were associated with the highest risks of HF, followed by rheumatoid arthritis and HIV. Measurements of inflammation were associated with HF risk across different CIDs.

Alveolitis in severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia is driven by self-sustaining circuits between infected alveolar macrophages and T cells.

Some patients infected with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) develop severe pneumonia and the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) [1]. Distinct clinical features in these patients have led to speculation that the immune response to virus in the SARS-CoV-2-infected alveolus differs from other types of pneumonia [2]. We collected bronchoalveolar lavage fluid samples from 86 patients with SARS-CoV-2-induced respiratory failure and 252 patients with known or suspected pneumonia from other pathogens and subjected them to flow cytometry and bulk transcriptomic profiling. We performed single cell RNA-Seq in 5 bronchoalveolar lavage fluid samples collected from patients with severe COVID-19 within 48 hours of intubation. In the majority of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the onset of mechanical ventilation, the alveolar space is persistently enriched in alveolar macrophages and T cells without neutrophilia. Bulk and single cell transcriptomic profiling suggest SARS-CoV-2 infects alveolar macrophages that respond by recruiting T cells. These T cells release interferon-gamma to induce inflammatory cytokine release from alveolar macrophages and further promote T cell recruitment. Our results suggest SARS-CoV-2 causes a slowly unfolding, spatially-limited alveolitis in which alveolar macrophages harboring SARS-CoV-2 transcripts and T cells form a positive feedback loop that drives progressive alveolar inflammation. This manuscript is accompanied by an online resource: https://www.nupulmonary.org/covid-19/. ONE SENTENCE SUMMARY: SARS-CoV-2-infected alveolar macrophages form positive feedback loops with T cells in patients with severe COVID-19.

Adjudicated Heart Failure in HIV-Infected and Uninfected Men and Women.

Background HIV is associated with elevated risk of heart failure ( HF ). Despite poor agreement between automated, administrative code-based HF definitions and physician-adjudicated HF , no studies have evaluated incident adjudicated HF for people living with HIV ( PLWH ). Methods and Results We analyzed PLWH and uninfected controls receiving care in an urban medical system from January 1, 2000, to July 12, 2016. Physicians reviewed data from medical records to adjudicate HF diagnoses. We used multivariable-adjusted Cox models to analyze incident HF for PLWH versus controls and HIV -related factors associated with incident HF . We also analyzed the performance of automated versus physician-adjudicated HF definitions. Incident adjudicated HF occurred in 97 of 4640 PLWH (2.1%; mean: 6.8 years to HF ) and 55 of 4250 controls (1.3%; mean: 6.7 years to HF ; multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio: 2.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.38-3.21). Among PLWH , higher HIV viral load ( hazard ratio per log10 higher time-updated viral load: 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.33) was associated with greater HF risk and higher CD 4+ T cell count was associated with lower HF risk ( hazard ratio per 100 cells/mm3 higher time-updated CD 4 count: 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.92). In exploratory analyses, the most accurate automated HF definitions had sensitivities of 67% to 75% and positive predictive values of 54% to 60%. Conclusions In a cohort with rigorous HF adjudication, PLWH had greater risks of HF than uninfected people after adjustment for demographics and cardiovascular risk factors. Higher HIV viral load and lower CD 4+ T cell count were associated with higher HF risk among PLWH . Automated methods of HF ascertainment exhibited poor accuracy for PLWH and uninfected people.

Atrial arrhythmia prevalence and characteristics for human immunodeficiency virus-infected persons and matched uninfected controls.

BACKGROUND: Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected (HIV+) persons have elevated risks for various manifestations of cardiovascular disease (CVD). No studies to our knowledge have compared atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) prevalence and associated characteristics for HIV+ persons and matched uninfected controls. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Persons with diagnoses of HIV receiving care at a large urban academic medical center were frequency-matched 1:2 on age, sex, race, zip code, and clinic location with uninfected persons. Possible AF/AFL was screened for using administrative codes and diagnoses of AF/AFL were subsequently adjudicated using electrocardiography and physician notes; adjudication was performed given the inconsistent validity of administrative code-derived AF diagnoses found in previous studies. There were 101 confirmed AF/AFL cases (2.00%) among 5,052 HIV+ patients and 159 confirmed AF/AFL cases (1.57%) among 10,121 uninfected controls [Odds Ratio (OR) 1.27, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.99-1.64; p = 0.056]. The association between HIV serostatus and AF/AFL was attenuated after adjustment for demographics and CVD risk factors. Among HIV+ persons, nadir CD4+ T cell count <200 cells/mm3 was associated with approximately twofold elevated odds of AF/AFL even after adjustment for demographics and CVD risk factors (Multivariable-adjusted OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.21-3.25). There was no significant association between log10 of peak HIV viral load and AF/AFL (Multivariable-adjusted OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.86-1.24). Older age, diabetes, hypertension, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were associated with similarly elevated odds of AF/AFL for HIV+ persons and uninfected controls. CONCLUSION: HIV-related immunosuppression (nadir CD4 T cell count <200 cells/mm3) and traditional CVD risk factors are associated with significantly elevated odds of AF/AFL among HIV+ persons. Although atrial fibrillation and flutter was more common among HIV+ versus uninfected persons in this cohort, this difference was attenuated by adjustment for demographics and CVD risk factors.

Differences by HIV serostatus in coronary artery disease severity and likelihood of percutaneous coronary intervention following stress testing.

BACKGROUND: HIV-infected persons develop coronary artery disease (CAD) more commonly and earlier than uninfected persons; however, the role of non-invasive testing to stratify CAD risk in HIV is not well defined. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients were selected from a single-center electronic cohort of HIV-infected patients and uninfected controls matched 1:2 on age, sex, race, and type of cardiovascular testing performed. Patients with abnormal echocardiographic or nuclear stress testing who subsequently underwent coronary angiography were included. Logistic regressions were used to assess differences by HIV serostatus in two co-primary endpoints: (1) severe CAD (≥70% stenosis of at least one coronary artery) and (2) performance of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). HIV-infected patients (N = 189) were significantly more likely to undergo PCI following abnormal stress test when compared with uninfected persons (N = 319) after adjustment for demographics, CAD risk factors, previous coronary intervention, and stress test type (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.12-3.04, P = 0.003). No associations between HIV serostatus and CAD were statistically significant, although there was a non-significant trend toward greater CAD for HIV-infected patients. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-infected patients with abnormal cardiovascular stress testing who underwent subsequent coronary angiography did not have a significantly greater CAD burden than uninfected controls, but were significantly more likely to receive PCI.

Clinical characteristics of HIV-infected patients with adjudicated heart failure.

Aims HIV-infected persons may have elevated risks for heart failure, but factors associated with heart failure in the modern era of HIV therapy are insufficiently understood. Despite substantial disagreement between physician-adjudicated heart failure and heart failure diagnosis codes, few studies of HIV cohorts have evaluated adjudicated heart failure. We evaluated associations of HIV viremia, immunosuppression, and cardiovascular risk factors with physician-adjudicated heart failure. Methods and results We analyzed clinical characteristics associated with heart failure in a cohort of 5041 HIV-infected patients receiving care at an urban hospital system between 2000 and 2016. We also evaluated characteristics of HIV-infected patients who screened negative for heart failure, screened positive for possible heart failure but did not have heart failure after adjudication, and had adjudicated heart failure. HIV-infected patients with heart failure ( N = 216) were older and more likely to be black, hypertensive, and have diabetes than HIV-infected patients without heart failure; heart failure with reduced ejection fraction was more common than heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. In our primary analyses restricted to HIV-infected patients whose heart failure diagnoses did not precede their HIV diagnoses ( N = 149), peak HIV viral load ≥100,000 copies/mL (odds ratio (OR) 2.12, 1.28-3.52) and nadir CD4 T-cell count <200 cells/mm3 (OR 2.35, 1.04-5.31) were associated with significantly elevated odds of heart failure. Overall, 30.6% of patients with any diagnosis code of heart failure had adjudicated heart failure. Conclusion Higher peak HIV viremia and lower CD4 cell nadir are associated with significantly elevated odds of heart failure for HIV-infected persons. Physician adjudication of heart failure may be helpful in HIV cohorts.