A Historical Survey of Key Epidemiological Studies of Ionizing Radiation Exposure.

In this article we review the history of key epidemiological studies of populations exposed to ionizing radiation. We highlight historical and recent findings regarding radiation-associated risks for incidence and mortality of cancer and non-cancer outcomes with emphasis on study design and methods of exposure assessment and dose estimation along with brief consideration of sources of bias for a few of the more important studies. We examine the findings from the epidemiological studies of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, persons exposed to radiation for diagnostic or therapeutic purposes, those exposed to environmental sources including Chornobyl and other reactor accidents, and occupationally exposed cohorts. We also summarize results of pooled studies. These summaries are necessarily brief, but we provide references to more detailed information. We discuss possible future directions of study, to include assessment of susceptible populations, and possible new populations, data sources, study designs and methods of analysis.

Occupational Radiation Dose Trends in U.S. Radiologic Technologists Assisting with Fluoroscopically Guided Interventional Procedures, 1980-2020.

PURPOSE: To summarize dose trends from 1980 to 2020 for 19,651 U.S. Radiologic Technologists who reported assisting with fluoroscopically guided interventional procedures (FGIPs), overall and by work history characteristics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 762,310 annual personal dose equivalents at a 10-mm reference depth (doses) during 1980-2020 for 43,823 participants of the U.S. Radiologic Technologists (USRT) cohort who responded to work history questionnaires administered during 2012-2014 were summarized. This population included 19,651 technologists who reported assisting with FGIP (≥1 time per month for ≥12 consecutive months) at any time during the study period. Doses corresponding to assistance with FGIP were estimated in terms of proximity to patients, monthly procedure frequency, and procedure type. Box plots and summary statistics (eg, medians and percentiles) were used to describe annual doses and dose trends. RESULTS: Median annual dose corresponding to assistance with FGIP was 0.65 mSv (interquartile range [IQR], 0.60-1.40 mSv; 95th percentile, 6.80). Higher occupational doses with wider variability were associated with close proximity to patients during assistance with FGIP (median, 1.20 mSv [IQR, 0.60-4.18 mSv]; 95th percentile, 12.66), performing ≥20 FGIPs per month (median, 0.75 mSv [IQR, 0.60-2.40 mSv]; 95th percentile, 9.44), and assisting with high-dose FGIP (median, 0.70 mSv [IQR, 0.60-1.90 mSv]; 95th percentile, 8.30). CONCLUSIONS: Occupational doses corresponding to assistance with FGIP were generally low but varied with exposure frequency, procedure type, and proximity to patients. These results highlight the need for vigilant dose monitoring, radiation safety training, and proper protective equipment.

Excess pancreatic cancer risk due to smoking and modifying effect of quitting smoking: The Multiethnic Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: Risk factors for pancreatic cancer include racial/ethnic disparities and smoking. However, risk trajectories by smoking history and race/ethnicity are unknown. We examined the association of smoking with pancreatic cancer by race/ethnicity to generate age-specific incidence estimates by smoking history. METHODS: We modeled pancreatic cancer incidence by race/ethnicity, age, pack-years, and years-quit using an excess relative risk model for 182,011 Multiethnic Cohort participants. We tested heterogeneity of smoking variables and pancreatic cancer by race/ethnicity and predicted incidence by smoking history. RESULTS: We identified 1,831 incident pancreatic cancer cases over an average 19.3 years of follow-up. Associations of pack-years (p interaction by race/ethnicity = 0.41) and years-quit (p interaction = 0.83) with pancreatic cancer did not differ by race/ethnicity. Fifty pack-years smoked was associated with 91% increased risk (95% CI 54%, 127%) relative to never smokers in the combined sample. Every year quit corresponded to 9% decreased excess risk (95% CI 2%, 15%) from pack-years smoked. Differences in baseline pancreatic cancer risk across racial/ethnic groups (p < 0.001) translated to large differences in risk for smokers at older ages across racial/ethnic groups (65-122 cases per 100,000 at age 70). CONCLUSION: Smoking pack-years were positively associated with elevated pancreatic cancer risk. Predicted risk trajectories showed a high impact of smoking cessation at < 65 years. Although we did not identify significant heterogeneity in the association of pack-years or years quit with pancreatic cancer risk, current smoker risk varied greatly by race/ethnicity in later life due to large differences in baseline risk.

Dose estimates and their uncertainties for use in epidemiological studies of radiation-exposed populations in the Russian Southern Urals.

Many residents of the Russian Southern Urals were exposed to radioactive environmental pollution created by the operations of the Mayak Production Association in the mid- 20th century. There were two major releases: the discharge of about 1x1017 Bq of liquid waste into the Techa River between 1949 and 1959; and the atmospheric release of 7.4 * 1016 Bq as a result an explosion in the radioactive waste-storage facility in 1957. The releases into the Techa River resulted in the exposure of more than 30,000 people who lived in riverside villages between 1950 and 1961. The 1957 accident contaminated a larger area with the highest exposure levels in an area that is called the East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT). Current epidemiologic studies of the exposed populations are based on dose estimates obtained using a Monte-Carlo dosimetry system (TRDS-2016MC) that provides multiple realizations of the annual doses for each cohort member. These dose realizations provide a central estimate of the individual dose and information on the uncertainty of these dose estimates. In addition, the correlation of individual annual doses over realizations provides important information on shared uncertainties that can be used to assess the impact of shared dose uncertainties on risk estimate uncertainty.This paper considers dose uncertainties in the TRDS-2016MC. Individual doses from external and internal radiation sources were reconstructed for 48,036 people based on environmental contamination patterns, residential histories, individual 90Sr body-burden measurements and dietary intakes. Dietary intake of 90Sr resulted in doses accumulated in active bone marrow (or simply, marrow) that were an order of magnitude greater than those in soft tissues. About 84% of the marrow dose and 50% of the stomach dose was associated with internal exposures. The lognormal distribution is well-fitted to the individual dose realizations, which, therefore, could be expressed and easily operated in terms of geometric mean (GM) and geometric standard deviation (GSD). Cohort average GM for marrow and stomach cumulative doses are 0.21 and 0.03 Gy, respectively. Cohort average dose uncertainties in terms of GSD are as follows: for marrow it is 2.93 (90%CI: 2.02-4.34); for stomach and the other non-calcified tissues it is 2.32 (90% CI: 1.78-2.9).

The Effect of Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) Test on Radiation Risk Estimate for Prostate Cancer Incidence among Atomic-Bomb Survivors.

Following our previous report on the radiation dose-response for prostate cancer incidence rates in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors, we reevaluated the radiation-related risk adjusting for differences in baseline cancer incidence rates among three subsets of the LSS cohort defined by the timing of their first participation in biennial health examinations offered to the Adult Health Study (AHS) sub-cohort members and prostate-specific-antigen (PSA) testing status for AHS participants: 1. non-AHS participants, 2. AHS participants before receiving PSA test, and 3. AHS participants after receiving PSA test. We found a 2.9-fold increase in the baseline incidence rates among AHS participants after receiving PSA test. After adjusting for the PSA-testing-status effects on the baseline rates the estimated excess relative risk (ERR) per Gy was 0.54 (95% CI: 0.15, 1.05), which was almost identical to the previously reported unadjusted ERR estimate (0.57, 95% CI: 0.21, 1.00). The current results confirmed that, while the PSA testing among AHS participants increased the baseline incidence rates, it did not impact the radiation risk estimate, strengthening the previously reported dose-response relationship for prostate cancer incidence in the LSS. As the use of PSA tests continue in screening and medical settings, analyses of possible effects of PSA testing should be an important aspect of future epidemiological studies of the association between radiation exposure and prostate cancer.

Breast cancer risk in Ukrainian women exposed to Chornobyl fallout while pregnant or lactating: standardized incidence ratio analysis, 1998 to 2016.

The radiation-related risk of breast cancer among women following the Chornobyl accident remains uncertain. During pregnancy, there is rapid cell proliferation in the breast while radioactive iodine from fallout exposure can concentrate in lactating breast tissues. We conducted a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) analysis of breast cancer in a cohort of 2,631 women who were lactating and/or pregnant at any time during the 2-month period of radioiodine fallout (April 26, 1986-June 30, 1986). There were 37,151 person-years of follow-up, and 26 incident breast cancers were identified through linkage with the National Cancer Registry of Ukraine. Breast cancer rates among pregnant or lactating women were compared to the general population rates, and SIRs were adjusted for oblast, urban/rural, age, and calendar year. The SIR was not significant for women pregnant at the time of the accident (SIR = 0.75; 95% CI 0.44, 1.18) or for women lactating anytime within 2 months of the accident (SIR = 0.96; 95% CI 0.48, 1.68). However, there was a non-significantly elevated risk for women lactating at the time of accident (SIR = 1.30, 95% CI 0.40, 3.01). The increased SIR for breast cancer among lactating women is consistent with the results of a similar study in Belarus and indicates the need to quantify the radiation risk of breast cancer in a larger study of women lactating during the period of fallout exposure.

Age effects on radiation response: summary of a recent symposium and future perspectives.

One of the principal uncertainties when estimating population risk of late effects from epidemiological data is that few radiation-exposed cohorts have been followed up to extinction. Therefore, the relative risk model has often been used to estimate radiation-associated risk and to extrapolate risk to the end of life. Epidemiological studies provide evidence that children are generally at higher risk of cancer induction than adults for a given radiation dose. However, the strength of evidence varies by cancer site and questions remain about site-specific age at exposure patterns. For solid cancers, there is a large body of evidence that excess relative risk (ERR) diminishes with increasing age at exposure. This pattern of risk is observed in the Life Span Study (LSS) as well as in other radiation-exposed populations for overall solid cancer incidence and mortality and for most site-specific solid cancers. However, there are some disparities by endpoint in the degree of variation of ERR with exposure age, with some sites (e.g., colon, lung) in the LSS incidence data showing no variation, or even increasing ERR with increasing age at exposure. The pattern of variation of excess absolute risk (EAR) with age at exposure is often similar, with EAR for solid cancers or solid cancer mortality decreasing with increasing age at exposure in the LSS. We shall review the human data from the Japanese LSS cohort, and a variety of other epidemiological data sets, including a review of types of medical diagnostic exposures, also some radiobiological animal data, all bearing on the issue of variations of radiation late-effects risk with age at exposure and with attained age. The paper includes a summary of several oral presentations given in a Symposium on "Age effects on radiation response" as part of the 67th Annual Meeting of the Radiation Research Society, held virtually on 3-6 October 2021.

Radiation detriment calculation methodology: summary of ICRP Publication 152.

Radiation detriment is a concept to quantify the burden of stochastic effects from exposure of the human population to low-dose and/or low-dose-rate ionising radiation. As part of a thorough review of the system of radiological protection, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has compiled a report on radiation detriment calculation methodology as Publication 152. It provides a historical review of the detriment calculation with details of the procedure used in ICRP Publication 103. A selected sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the parameters and calculation conditions that can be major sources of variation and uncertainty. It has demonstrated that sex, age at exposure, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor, dose assumption in the lifetime risk calculation, and lethality fraction have a substantial impact on the calculated values of radiation detriment. Discussions are also made on the issues to be addressed and possible ways for improvement toward the revision of general recommendations. These include update of the reference population data and cancer severity parameters, revision of cancer risk models, and better handling of the variation with sex and age. Finally, emphasis is placed on transparency and traceability of the calculation, along with the need to improve the way of expressing and communicating the detriment.

Breast cancer risk in residents of Belarus exposed to Chernobyl fallout while pregnant or lactating: standardized incidence ratio analysis, 1997 to 2016.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy and lactation may constitute radiation-sensitive reproductive periods due to rapid cell proliferation and concentration of radioiodine in the lactating breast. However, there are limited epidemiological data among women exposed to radiation during these periods. METHODS: We examined incidence of breast cancer in a cohort of 3214 women who were pregnant and/or lactating within 2 months (26 April to 30 June 1986) of the Chernobyl accident and residing in contaminated regions of Belarus. There were 33 breast cancers identified through linkage with the Belarusian National Cancer Registry. Breast cancer rates among women who were either pregnant and/or lactating were compared with population rates by calculating standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusting for attained age, oblast, urban/rural residence and calendar year. RESULTS: Among women who were lactating, we found a greater than 2-fold increased risk of breast cancer compared with the general population, SIR = 2.49 (95% CI: 1.55, 3.75). In contrast, women who were pregnant were not at increased risk (SIR = 0.84 95% CI: 0.46, 1.38). The SIR was highest in women who were exposed at a younger age and at the earliest time period since the accident, though stratified analyses had limited sample sizes. CONCLUSIONS: We found a significantly increased risk of breast cancer among women residing in contaminated areas of Belarus who were lactating at the time of the accident and may have had elevated exposure to radioiodine, when compared with the general population. Studies of breast cancer with individual radiation dose estimates among women exposed during lactation are warranted.

Incidence of lymphoid neoplasms among atomic bomb survivors by histological subtype, 1950 to 1994.

Epidemiological data have provided limited and inconsistent evidence on the relationship between radiation exposure and lymphoid neoplasms. We classified 553 lymphoid neoplasm cases diagnosed between 1950 and 1994 in the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors into World Health Organization subtypes. Mature B-cell neoplasms represented 58%, mature T-cell and natural killer (NK)-cell neoplasms 20%, precursor cell neoplasms 5%, and Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) 3%, with the remaining 15% classified as non-Hodgkin lymphoid (NHL) neoplasms or lymphoid neoplasms not otherwise specified. We used Poisson regression methods to assess the relationship between radiation exposure and the more common subtypes. As in earlier reports, a significant dose response for NHL neoplasms as a group was seen for males but not females. However, subtype analyses showed that radiation dose was strongly associated with increased precursor cell neoplasms rates, with an estimated excess relative risk per Gy of 16 (95% Confidence interval: 7.0, >533) at age 50. The current data based primarily of tissue-based diagnoses suggest that the association between radiation dose and lymphoid neoplasms as a group is largely driven by the radiation effect on precursor cell neoplasms while presenting no evidence of a radiation dose response for major categories of mature cell neoplasms, either B- or T-/NK-cell, or more specific disease entities (diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, plasma cell myeloma, adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma) or HL.

Trends in Occupational Radiation Doses for U.S. Radiologic Technologists Performing General Radiologic and Nuclear Medicine Procedures, 1980-2015.

Background Occupational doses to most medical radiation workers have declined substantially since the 1950s because of improvements in radiation protection practices. However, different patterns may have emerged for radiologic technologists working with nuclear medicine because of the higher per-procedure doses and increasing workloads. Purpose To summarize annual occupational doses during a 36-year period for a large cohort of U.S. radiologic technologists and to compare dose between general radiologic technologists and those specializing in nuclear medicine procedures. Materials and Methods Annual personal dose equivalents (referred to as doses) from 1980 to 2015 were summarized for 58 434 (62%) participants in the U.S. Radiologic Technologists (USRT) cohort who responded to the most recent mailed work history survey (years 2012-2014) and reported never regularly performing interventional procedures. Doses were partitioned according to the performance of nuclear medicine (yes or no, frequency, procedure type) by calendar year. Annual dose records were described by using summary statistics (eg, median and 25th and 75th percentiles). Results Median annual doses related to performance of general radiologic procedures decreased from 0.60 mSv (interquartile range [IQR], 0.10-1.9 mSv) in 1980 to levels below the limits of detection by 2015, whereas annual doses related to performance of nuclear medicine procedures remained relatively high during this period (median, 1.2 mSv; IQR, 0.12-3.0 mSv). Higher median annual doses were associated with more frequent (above vs below the median) performance of diagnostic nuclear medicine procedures (≥35 vs <35 times per week; 1.6 mSv [IQR, 0.30-3.3 mSv] and 0.9 mSv [IQR, 0.10-2.6 mSv]). Higher and more variable annual doses were associated with more frequent performance of cardiac nuclear medicine (≥10 times per week) and PET (nine or more times per week) examinations (median, 1.6 mSv [IQR, 0.30-2.2 mSv] and 2.2 mSv [IQR, 0.10-4.6 mSv], respectively). Conclusion Annual doses to U.S. radiologic technologists performing general radiologic procedures declined during a 36-year period. However, consistently higher and more variable doses were associated with the performance of nuclear medicine procedures, particularly cardiac nuclear medicine and PET procedures. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Mettler and Guiberteau in this issue.

Occupational radiation exposure and cancer incidence in a cohort of diagnostic medical radiation workers in South Korea.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated the association between protracted low-dose ionising radiation and the risk of cancer in medical radiation workers, the largest group of workers with occupational radiation exposures. METHODS: Data of all South Korean diagnostic medical radiation workers enrolled at the National Dose Registry during 1996-2011 were merged with the death and cancer incidence data until 31 December 2017. SIRs, relative risks and excess relative risks (ERRs) for cancer were calculated to quantify the radiation dose-response relationship using Poisson regression models. RESULTS: A total of 3392 first primary cancer cases were identified among 93 920 diagnostic medical radiation workers. The mean cumulative badge dose in the cohort was 7.20 mSv. The ERRs for solid cancer with a 5-year lag and haematopoietic cancers with a 2-year lag for all workers were 0.15 per 100 mGy (95% CI -0.20 to 0.51) and 0.09 per 100 mGy (95% CI -2.02 to 2.20), respectively. The ERRs for cancers did not significantly vary by job title, different lag years or after excluding thyroid and lung cancers. Sensitivity analyses restricted to workers employed for at least 1 year, or who were employed in or after 1996, or who had exposure to a cumulative badge dose of 1 mSv or more showed similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Occupational radiation doses were not significantly associated with cancer incidence among South Korean diagnostic medical radiation workers. However, cautious interpretation of ERRs is needed due to the limitations of short follow-up and low cumulative radiation doses.

Congenital Malformations and Perinatal Deaths Among the Children of Atomic Bomb Survivors: A Reappraisal.

From 1948 to 1954, the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission conducted a study of pregnancy outcomes among births to atomic bomb survivors (Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan) who had received radiation doses ranging from 0 Gy to near-lethal levels. Past reports (1956, 1981, and 1990) on the cohort did not identify significant associations of radiation exposure with untoward pregnancy outcomes, such as major congenital malformations, stillbirths, or neonatal deaths, individually or in aggregate. We reexamined the risk of major congenital malformations and perinatal deaths in the children of atomic bomb survivors (n = 71,603) using fully reconstructed data to minimize the potential for bias, using refined estimates of the gonadal dose from Dosimetry System 2002 and refined analytical methods for characterizing dose-response relationships. The analyses showed that parental exposure to radiation was associated with increased risk of major congenital malformations and perinatal death, but the estimates were imprecise for direct radiation effects, and most were not statistically significant. Nonetheless, the uniformly positive estimates for untoward pregnancy outcomes among children of both maternal and paternal survivors are useful for risk assessment purposes, although extending them to populations other than the atomic bomb survivors comes with uncertainty as to generalizability.

Lung Cancer in the Mayak Workers Cohort: Risk Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis.

The workers at the Mayak nuclear facility near Ozyorsk, Russia are a primary source of information about exposure to radiation at low-dose rates, since they were subject to protracted exposures to external gamma rays and to internal exposures from plutonium inhalation. Here we re-examine lung cancer mortality rates and assess the effects of external gamma and internal plutonium exposures using recently developed Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Using individual lagged mean annual lung doses computed from the dose realizations, we fit excess relative risk (ERR) models to the lung cancer mortality data for the Mayak Workers Cohort using risk-modeling software. We then used the corrected-information matrix (CIM) approach to widen the confidence intervals of ERR by taking into account the uncertainty in doses represented by multiple realizations from the Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Findings of this work revealed that there were 930 lung cancer deaths during follow-up. Plutonium lung doses (but not gamma doses) were generally higher in the new dosimetry systems than those used in the previous analysis. This led to a reduction in the risk per unit dose compared to prior estimates. The estimated ERR/Gy for external gamma-ray exposure was 0.19 (95% CI: 0.07 to 0.31) for both sexes combined, while the ERR/Gy for internal exposures based on mean plutonium doses were 3.5 (95% CI: 2.3 to 4.6) and 8.9 (95% CI: 3.4 to 14) for males and females at attained age 60. Accounting for uncertainty in dose had little effect on the confidence intervals for the ERR associated with gamma-ray exposure, but had a marked impact on confidence intervals, particularly the upper bounds, for the effect of plutonium exposure [adjusted 95% CIs: 1.5 to 8.9 for males and 2.7 to 28 for females]. In conclusion, lung cancer rates increased significantly with both external gamma-ray and internal plutonium exposures. Accounting for the effects of dose uncertainty markedly increased the width of the confidence intervals for the plutonium dose response but had little impact on the external gamma dose effect estimate. Adjusting risk estimate confidence intervals using CIM provides a solution to the important problem of dose uncertainty. This work demonstrates, for the first time, that it is possible and practical to use our recently developed CIM method to make such adjustments in a large cohort study.

Risk of Prostate Cancer Incidence among Atomic Bomb Survivors: 1958-2009.

Epidemiological evidence for a radiation effect on prostate cancer risk has been inconsistent and largely indicative of no or little effect. Here we studied prostate cancer incidence among males of the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors in a follow-up from 1958 to 2009, eleven years more than was previously reported. During this period there were 851 incident cases of prostate cancer among 41,544 male subjects, doubling the total number of cases in the cohort. More than 50% of the cases were diagnosed among those who were less than 20 years of age at the time of the bombings and who were at, or near, the ages of heightened prostate cancer risks during the last decade of follow-up. In analyses of the radiation dose response using Poisson regression methods, we used a baseline-rate model that allowed for calendar period effects corresponding to the emergence of prostate-specific antigen screening in the general population as well as effects of attained age and birth cohort. The model also allowed for markedly increased baseline rates among the Adult Health Study participants between 2005 and 2009, a period during which a prostate-specific antigen test was included in Adult Health Study biennial health examinations. We found a significant linear dose response with an estimated excess relative risk (ERR) per Gy of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.21, 1.00, P = 0.001). An estimated 40 of the observed cases were attributed to radiation exposure from the bombings. There was a suggestion of the ERR decreasing with increasing age at exposure (P = 0.09). We found no indication of effects of smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index on the baseline risk of prostate cancer. The observed dose response strengthens the evidence of a radiation effect on the risk of prostate cancer incidence in the atomic bomb survivors.

Radiation Risk of Ovarian Cancer in Atomic Bomb Survivors: 1958-2009.

There is limited evidence concerning the association between radiation exposure and ovarian cancer. We evaluated radiation risk of ovarian cancer between 1958 and 2009 among 62,534 female atomic bomb survivors in the Life Span Study cohort, adding 11 years of follow-up from the previously reported study. Poisson regression methods were used to estimate excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) for total ovarian cancer and according to tumor type. We assessed the modifying effect of follow-up period and other factors on the radiation risk. We ascertained 288 first primary ovarian cancers including 77 type 1 epithelial cancers, 75 type 2 epithelial cancers, 66 epithelial cancers of undetermined type and 70 other cancers. Radiation dose was positively, although not significantly, associated with risk of total ovarian cancer [ERR/Gy = 0.30, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.22 to 1.11]. There was a suggestion of heterogeneity in radiation effects (P = 0.08) for type 1 (ERR/Gy = -0.32, 95% CI: <-0.32 to 0.88) and type 2 cancers (ERR/Gy = 1.24, 95% CI: -0.08 to 4.16). There were no significant trends in the ERR with time since exposure or age at exposure. Further follow-up will help characterize more accurately the patterns of radiation risk for total ovarian cancer and its types.