Association of Autoimmune Diseases With Coronary Atherosclerosis Severity and Ischemic Events.

BACKGROUND: Some autoimmune diseases carry elevated risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), yet the underlying mechanism and the influence of traditional risk factors remain unclear. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine whether autoimmune diseases independently correlate with coronary atherosclerosis and ASCVD risk and whether traditional cardiovascular risk factors modulate the risk. METHODS: The study included 85,512 patients from the Western Denmark Heart Registry undergoing coronary computed tomography angiography. A diagnosis of 1 of 18 autoimmune diseases was assessed. Adjusted OR (aOR) for any plaque, any coronary artery calcification (CAC), CAC of >90th percentile, and obstructive coronary artery disease as well as adjusted HR (aHR) for ASCVD were calculated. RESULTS: During 5.3 years (Q1-Q3: 2.8-8.2 years) of follow-up, 3,832 ASCVD events occurred. A total of 4,064 patients had a diagnosis of autoimmune disease, which was associated with both presence of any plaque (aOR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.20-1.40), any CAC (aOR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.19-1.37), and severe CAC of >90th percentile (aOR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.39-1.68), but not with having obstructive coronary artery disease (aOR: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.91-1.17). Patients with autoimmune diseases had a 46% higher risk (aHR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.29-1.65) for ASCVD. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors were strongly associated with future ASCVD events, and a favorable cardiovascular risk factor profile in autoimmune patients was associated with ∼54% lower risk compared to patients with presence of risk factors (aHR: 0.46; 95% CI: 0.27-0.81). CONCLUSIONS: Autoimmune diseases were independently associated with higher burden of coronary atherosclerosis and higher risk for future ASCVD events, with risk accentuated by traditional cardiovascular risk factors. These findings suggest that autoimmune diseases increase risk through accelerated atherogenesis and that cardiovascular risk factor control is key for improving prognosis in patients with autoimmune diseases.

Coronary volume to left ventricular mass ratio in patients with diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus is a major risk factor for coronary artery disease (CAD) and may provoke structural and functional changes in coronary vasculature. The coronary volume to left ventricular mass (V/M) ratio is a new anatomical parameter capable of revealing a potential physiological imbalance between coronary vasculature and myocardial mass. The aim of this study was to examine the V/M derived from coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in patients with diabetes. METHODS: Patients with clinically suspected CAD enrolled in the ADVANCE (Assessing Diagnostic Value of Non-invasive FFRCT in Coronary Care) registry and known diabetic status were included. Coronary artery volume and left ventricular myocardial mass were analyzed from CCTA and the V/M ratio was calculated and compared between patients with and without diabetes. RESULTS: Of the 3053 patients (age 66 â€‹± â€‹10 years; 66% male) with known diabetic status, diabetes was present in 21.9%. Coronary volume was lower in patients with diabetes compared to those without diabetes (2850 â€‹± â€‹940 â€‹mm3 vs. 3040 â€‹± â€‹970 â€‹mm3, p â€‹< â€‹0.0001), whereas the myocardial mass was comparable between the 2 groups (122 â€‹± â€‹33 â€‹g vs. 122 â€‹± â€‹32 â€‹g, p â€‹= â€‹0.70). The V/M ratio was significantly lower in patients with diabetes (23.9 â€‹± â€‹6.8 â€‹mm3/g vs. 25.7 â€‹± â€‹7.5 â€‹mm3/g, p â€‹< â€‹0.0001). Among subjects with obstructive CAD (n â€‹= â€‹2191, 24.0% diabetics) and non-obstructive CAD (16.7% diabetics), the V/M ratio was significantly lower in patients with diabetes compared to those without (23.4 â€‹± â€‹6.7 â€‹mm3/g vs. 25.0 â€‹± â€‹7.3 â€‹mm3/g, p â€‹< â€‹0.0001 and 25.6 â€‹± â€‹6.9 â€‹mm3/g vs. 27.3 â€‹± â€‹7.6 â€‹mm3/g, respectively, p â€‹= â€‹0.006). CONCLUSION: The V/M ratio was significantly lower in patients with diabetes compared to non-diabetics, even after correcting for obstructive coronary stenosis. The clinical value of the reduced V/M ratio in diabetic patients needs further investigation.

Trans-lesional fractional flow reserve gradient as derived from coronary CT improves patient management: ADVANCE registry.

BACKGROUND: The role of change in fractional flow reserve derived from CT (FFRCT) across coronary stenoses (ΔFFRCT) in guiding downstream testing in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the incremental value of ΔFFRCT in predicting early revascularization and improving efficiency of catheter laboratory utilization. MATERIALS: Patients with CAD on coronary CT angiography (CCTA) were enrolled in an international multicenter registry. Stenosis severity was assessed as per CAD-Reporting and Data System (CAD-RADS), and lesion-specific FFRCT was measured 2 â€‹cm distal to stenosis. ΔFFRCT was manually measured as the difference of FFRCT across visible stenosis. RESULTS: Of 4730 patients (66 â€‹± â€‹10 years; 34% female), 42.7% underwent ICA and 24.7% underwent early revascularization. ΔFFRCT remained an independent predictor for early revascularization (odds ratio per 0.05 increase [95% confidence interval], 1.31 [1.26-1.35]; p â€‹< â€‹0.001) after adjusting for risk factors, stenosis features, and lesion-specific FFRCT. Among the 3 models (model 1: risk factors â€‹+ â€‹stenosis type and location â€‹+ â€‹CAD-RADS; model 2: model 1 â€‹+ â€‹FFRCT; model 3: model 2 â€‹+ â€‹ΔFFRCT), model 3 improved discrimination compared to model 2 (area under the curve, 0.87 [0.86-0.88] vs 0.85 [0.84-0.86]; p â€‹< â€‹0.001), with the greatest incremental value for FFRCT 0.71-0.80. ΔFFRCT of 0.13 was the optimal cut-off as determined by the Youden index. In patients with CAD-RADS ≥3 and lesion-specific FFRCT ≤0.8, a diagnostic strategy incorporating ΔFFRCT >0.13, would potentially reduce ICA by 32.2% (1638-1110, p â€‹< â€‹0.001) and improve the revascularization to ICA ratio from 65.2% to 73.1%. CONCLUSIONS: ΔFFRCT improves the discrimination of patients who underwent early revascularization compared to a standard diagnostic strategy of CCTA with FFRCT, particularly for those with FFRCT 0.71-0.80. ΔFFRCT has the potential to aid decision-making for ICA referral and improve efficiency of catheter laboratory utilization.

Interplay of Risk Factors and Coronary Artery Calcium for CHD Risk in Young Patients.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine prevalence, predictors, and impact of coronary artery calcium (CAC) across different risk factor burdens on the prevalence of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) and future coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in young patients. BACKGROUND: The interplay of risk factors and CAC for predicting CHD in young patients aged ≤45 years is not clear. METHODS: The study included 3,691 symptomatic patients (18-45 years of age) from the WDHR (Western Denmark Heart Registry) undergoing coronary computed tomographic angiography. CHD events were myocardial infarction and late revascularization. RESULTS: During a median of 4.1 years of follow-up, 57 first-time CHD events occurred. In total, 3,180 patients (86.1%) had CAC = 0 and 511 patients (13.9%) had CAC >0. Presence of CAC increased with number of risk factors (odds ratio: 4.5 [95% CI: 2.7-7.3] in patients with >3 vs 0 risk factors). The prevalence of obstructive CAD at baseline and the rate of future CHD events increased in a stepwise manner with both higher CAC and number of risk factors. The CHD event rate was lowest at 0.5 (95% CI: 0.1-3.6) per 1,000 person-years in patients with 0 risk factors and CAC = 0. Among patients with >3 risk factors, the event rate was 3.1 (95% CI: 1.0-9.7) in patients with CAC = 0 compared with 36.3 (95% CI: 17.3-76.1) in patients with CAC >10. CONCLUSIONS: In young patients, there is a strong interplay between CAC and risk factors for predicting the presence of obstructive CAD and for future CHD risk. In the presence of risk factors, even a low CAC score is a high-risk marker. These results demonstrate the importance of assessing risk factors and CAC simultaneously when assessing risk in young patients.

Heterogenous Distribution of Risk for Cardiovascular Disease Events in Patients With Stable Ischemic Heart Disease.

OBJECTIVES: The authors sought to assess the distribution of 5-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (myocardial infarction, revascularizations, ischemic stroke) and death among symptomatic patients with varying degrees of coronary artery disease (CAD) ascertained from computed tomography angiography (CTA). BACKGROUND: CTA is used increasingly as the first-line test for evaluating patients with symptoms suggestive of CAD. This creates the daily clinical challenge of best using the information available from CTA to guide appropriate downstream allocation of preventive treatments. METHODS: Among 21,275 patients from the Western Denmark Heart Registry, the authors developed a model predicting 5-year risk for CVD and death based on traditional risk factors and CAD severity. Only events occurring >90 days after CTA were included. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.2 years, 1,295 CVD events and deaths occurred. The median 5-year risk for events was 4% (interquartile range: 3% to 8%), and ranged from <5% to >50% in individual patients. The degree of CAD severity was the strongest risk factor; however, traditional risk factors also contributed significantly to risk. Thus, risk distributions in patients with varying degree of CAD overlapped considerably, and patients with extensive nonobstructive CAD could have higher estimated risk than patients with obstructive CAD (stenosis >50%). Among patients with obstructive CAD, 12% had 5-year risk <10% whereas 24% had risk >20%. A similar large overlap in risk was found when revascularizations were excluded from the endpoint. CONCLUSIONS: The 5-year risk for CVD events and death varies substantially in symptomatic patients undergoing CTA, even in the presence of obstructive CAD. These results provide support for individual risk assessment to improve potential benefit when allocating preventive therapies following CTA.

The clinical utility of FFRCT stratified by age.

BACKGROUND: CT coronary angiography (CTA) with Fractional Flow Reserve as determined by CT (FFRCT) is a safe alternative to invasive coronary angiography. A negative FFRCT has been shown to have low cardiac event rates compared to those with a positive FFRCT. However, the clinical utility of FFRCT according to age is not known. METHODS: Patients' in the ADVANCE (Assessing Diagnostic Value of Non-invasive FFRCT in Coronary Care) registry, were stratified into those ≥65 or <65 years of age. The impact of FFRCT on clinical decision-making, as assessed by patient age, was determined by evaluating patient management using CTA results alone, followed by site investigators submitting a report on the treatment plan based upon the newly provided FFRCT data. Outcomes at 1-year post CTA were assessed, including major adverse cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, all-cause mortality or unplanned hospitalization for ACS leading to revascularisation) and total revascularisation. Positive FFRCT was deemed to be â€‹≤ â€‹0.8. RESULTS: FFRCT was calculated in 1849 (40.6%) subjects aged <65 and 2704 (59.4%) â€‹≥ â€‹65 years of age. Subjects ≥65 years were more likely to have anatomic obstructive disease on CTA (≥50% stenosis), compared to those aged <65 (69.7% and 73.2% respectively, p â€‹= â€‹0.008). There was a similar graded increase in recommended and actual revascularisation with either CABG or PCI, with declining FFRCT strata for subjects above and below the age of 65. MACE and revascularisation rates were not significantly different for those â€‹≥ â€‹or <65, regardless of FFRCT positivity or stenosis severity <50% or ≥50%. With a negative FFRCT result, and anatomical stenosis ≥50%, those â€‹≥ â€‹and <65 years of age, had similar rates of MACE (0.2% for both, p â€‹= â€‹0.1) and revascularisation (8.7% and 10.4% respectively p â€‹= â€‹0.4). Logistic regression analysis, with age as a continuous variable, and adjustment for Diamond Forrester Risk, baseline FFRCT and treatment (CABG, PCI, medical therapy), indicated a statistically significant, but small increase in the odds of a MACE event with increasing age (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.006-1.08, p â€‹= â€‹0.02). Amongst patients with a FFRCT > 0.80, there was no effect of age on the odds of revascularisation. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study point to a low risk of MACE events or need for revascularisation in those aged â€‹≥ â€‹or <65 with a FFRCT>0.80, despite the higher incidence of anatomic obstructive CAD in those ≥65 years. The findings show the clinical usefulness and outcomes of FFRCT are largely constant regardless of age.

Impact of Plaque Burden Versus Stenosis on Ischemic Events in Patients With Coronary Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) are at high risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. However, it remains unclear whether the high risk is due to high atherosclerotic disease burden or if presence of stenosis has independent predictive value. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate if obstructive CAD provides predictive value beyond its association with total calcified atherosclerotic plaque burden as assessed by coronary artery calcium (CAC). METHODS: Among 23,759 symptomatic patients from the Western Denmark Heart Registry who underwent diagnostic computed tomography angiography (CTA), we assessed the risk of major CVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause death) stratified by CAC burden and number of vessels with obstructive disease. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 1,054 patients experienced a first major CVD event. The event rate increased stepwise with both higher CAC scores and number of vessels with obstructive disease (by CAC scores: 6.2 per 1,000 person-years (PY) for CAC = 0 to 42.3 per 1,000 PY for CAC >1,000; by number of vessels with obstructive disease: 6.1 per 1,000 PY for no CAD to 34.7 per 1,000 PY for 3-vessel disease). When stratified by 5 groups of CAC scores (0, 1 to 99, 100 to 399, 400 to 1,000, and >1,000), the presence of obstructive CAD was not associated with higher risk than presence of nonobstructive CAD. CONCLUSIONS: Plaque burden, not stenosis per se, is the main predictor of risk for CVD events and death. Thus, patients with a comparable calcified atherosclerosis burden generally carry a similar risk for CVD events regardless of whether they have nonobstructive or obstructive CAD.

Implementation of coronary computed tomography angiography as nationally recommended first-line test in patients with suspected chronic coronary syndrome: impact on the use of invasive coronary angiography and revascularization.

AIMS: To investigate the impact of applying coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), as the recommended first-line diagnostic test in patients with suspected chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) on the use of invasive coronary angiography (ICA) and revascularization practice. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included all patients undergoing a first-time CCTA (n = 53555) and first-time ICA (n = 41451) from 2008 to 2017 due to suspected CCS in Western Denmark (3.3 million inhabitants). The number of CCTA procedures increased from 352 (2008) to 7739 (2017) (2098%), ICA examinations declined from 4538 to 3766 (17%). The average proportion of no- or non-obstructive coronary artery disease by CCTA was 77.5%. Referral to ICA after CCTA occurred in 16.9% of patients in 2008-10 vs. 13.9% in 2014-17 (P < 0.0001). Revascularization in patients referred to ICA after CCTA increased from 33.8% in 2008-10 vs. 44.4% in 2014-17 (P < 0.0001). The revascularization proportion in patients undergoing ICA with no preceding CCTA was 32.3% in 2008-10 vs. 33.3% in (2014-17) (P = 0.1063). Stratified by age, the overall revascularization proportion increased in the younger age groups and was unchanged or decreased in older age groups: <50 years: 60% increase, 50-59 years: 33% increase, 60-69 years: 0%, and >70 years: 9.5% decrease. CONCLUSION: The introduction of CCTA as a first-line diagnostic test in patients with suspected CCS does not associate with increased use of invasive angiography and seems to have facilitated a more appropriate revascularization practice.

Sex Differences in Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography-Derived Fractional Flow Reserve: Lessons From ADVANCE.

OBJECTIVES: This study is to determine the management and clinical outcomes of patients investigated with coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA)-derived fractional flow reserve (FFRCT) according to sex. BACKGROUND: Women are underdiagnosed with conventional ischemia testing, have lower rates of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) at invasive coronary angiography (ICA), yet higher mortality compared to men. Whether FFRCT improves sex-based patient management decisions compared to CCTA alone is unknown. METHODS: Subjects with symptoms and CAD on CCTA were enrolled (2015 to 2017). Demographics, symptom status, CCTA anatomy, coronary volume to myocardial mass ratio (V/M), lowest FFRCT values, and management plans were captured. Endpoints included reclassification rate between CCTA and FFRCT management plans, incidence of ICA demonstrating obstructive CAD (≥50% stenosis) and revascularization rates. RESULTS: A total of 4,737 patients (n = 1,603 females, 33.8%) underwent CCTA and FFRCT. Women were older (age 68 ± 10 years vs. 65 ± 10 years; p < 0.0001) with more atypical symptoms (41.5% vs. 33.9%; p < 0.0001). Women had less obstructive CAD (65.4% vs. 74.7%; p < 0.0001) at CCTA, higher FFRCT (0.76 ± 0.10 vs. 0.73 ± 0.10; p < 0.0001), and lower likelihood of positive FFRCT ≤ 0.80 for the same degree stenosis (p < 0.0001). A positive FFRCT ≤0.80 resulted in equal referral to ICA (n = 510 [54.5%] vs. n = 1,249 [56.5%]; p = 0.31), but more nonobstructive CAD (n = 208 [32.1%] vs. n = 354 [24.5%]; p = 0.0003) and less revascularization (n = 294 [31.4%] vs. n = 800 [36.2%]; p < 0.0001) in women, unless the FFRCT was ≤0.75 where revascularization rates were similar (n = 253 [41.9%] vs. n = 715 [46.4%]; p = 0.06). Women have a higher V/M ratio (26.17 ± 7.58 mm3/g vs. 24.76 ± 7.22 mm3/g; p < 0.0001) that is associated with higher FFRCT independent of degree stenosis (p < 0.001). Predictors of revascularization included stenosis severity, FFRCT, symptoms, and V/M ratio (p < 0.001) but not female sex (p = 0.284). CONCLUSIONS: FFRCT differs between the sexes, as women have a higher FFRCT for the same degree of stenosis. In FFRCT-positive CAD, women have less obstructive CAD at ICA and less revascularization, which is associated with higher V/M ratio. The findings suggest that CAD and FFRCT variations by sex need specific interpretation as these differences may affect therapeutic decision making and clinical outcomes. (Assessing Diagnostic Value of Non-invasive FFRCT in Coronary Care [ADVANCE]; NCT02499679).

CAD Severity on Cardiac CTA Identifies Patients With Most Benefit of Treating LDL-Cholesterol to ACC/AHA and ESC/EAS Targets.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess if information on CAD severity from coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) can identify patients that benefit most from treating low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) to American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology (ACC/AHA) and European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines targets. BACKGROUND: Current treatment guidelines for secondary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) disregard severity of coronary artery disease (CAD) for treatment choices. It is unclear whether severity of CAD should be considered in treatment recommendations. METHODS: Among 20,241 symptomatic patients undergoing diagnostic CTA from the Western Denmark Heart Registry, we assessed the number needed to treat (NNT) in 6 years to prevent 1 ASCVD event as well as the proportion of all events that could be prevented by treating LDL-C to targets. We assumed a 22% relative reduction of ASCVD events per 1 mmol/l reduction in LDL-C. RESULTS: In multivariable analysis with no CAD as the reference, the subdistribution hazard ratio for ASCVD events was 4.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.3 to 4.9) for 1-vessel disease, 4.6 (3.5 to 6.0) for 2-vessel disease, and 5.6 (4.0 to 8.0) for 3-vessel disease. Consequently, the NNT to prevent 1 ASCVD event in 6 years by treating LDL-C to targets varied greatly from 233 (ESC) and 110 (ACC/AHA) for patients with no CAD to 8-9 for patients with 3-vessel disease (both ACC/AHA and ESC). The estimated percentage of ASCVD events that could be prevented by achieving guideline targets was 30% to 36% for patients with obstructive disease. However, <20% of patients achieved targets. CONCLUSIONS: An individualized approach based on CAD severity can identify symptomatic patients that are likely to derive most and least benefit from treating LDL-C to ACC/AHA and ESC treatment targets.

Prediction of Coronary Revascularization in Stable Angina: Comparison of FFRCT With CMR Stress Perfusion Imaging.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to compare head-to-head fractional flow reserve (FFR) derived from coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) (FFRCT) and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) stress perfusion imaging for prediction of standard-of-care-guided coronary revascularization in patients with stable chest pain and obstructive coronary artery disease by coronary CTA. BACKGROUND: FFRCT is a novel modality for noninvasive functional testing. The clinical utility of FFRCT compared to CMR stress perfusion imaging in symptomatic patients with coronary artery disease is unknown. METHODS: Prospective study of patients (n = 110) with stable angina pectoris and 1 or more coronary stenosis ≥50% by coronary CTA. All patients underwent invasive coronary angiography. Revascularization was FFR-guided in stenoses ranging from 30% to 90%. FFRCT ≤0.80 in 1 or more coronary artery or a reversible perfusion defect (≥2 segments) by CMR categorized patients with ischemia. FFRCT and CMR were analyzed by core laboratories blinded for patient management. RESULTS: A total of 38 patients (35%) underwent revascularization. Per-patient diagnostic performance for identifying standard-of-care-guided revascularization, (95% confidence interval) yielded a sensitivity of 97% (86% to 100%) for FFRCT versus 47% (31% to 64%) for CMR, p < 0.001; corresponding specificity was 42% (30% to 54%) versus 88% (78% to 94%), p < 0.001; negative predictive value of 97% (91% to 100%) versus 76% (67% to 85%), p < 0.05; positive predictive value of 47% (36% to 58%) versus 67% (49% to 84%), p < 0.05; and accuracy of 61% (51% to 70%) versus 74% (64% to 82%), p > 0.05, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with stable chest pain referred to invasive coronary angiography based on coronary CTA, FFRCT and CMR yielded similar overall diagnostic accuracy. Sensitivity for prediction of revascularization was highest for FFRCT, whereas specificity was highest for CMR.

Incidence and predictors of lesion-specific ischemia by FFRCT: Learnings from the international ADVANCE registry.

BACKGROUND: To date, the clinical utility of coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA)-derived fractional flow reserve (FFRCT) has been limited to trials and single center experiences. We herein report the incidence of abnormal FFRCT (≤0.80) and the relationship of lesion-specific ischemia to subject demographics, symptoms, and degree of stenosis in the multicenter, prospective ADVANCE registry. METHODS: One thousand patients with suspected angina having documented coronary artery disease on coronary CTA and clinically referred for FFRCT were prospectively enrolled in the registry. Patient demographics, symptom status, coronary CTA and FFRCT findings were recorded. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to investigate the predictors related to abnormal FFRCT. RESULTS: FFRCT data were analyzed in 952 patients (95.2%). Overall, 51.1% patients had a positive FFRCT value (≤0.80). Patients with ≥3 risk factors had a significantly higher rate of abnormal FFRCT than those with <3 risk factors (60.2% vs. 43.9%, p = 0.0001). On multivariate analysis, baseline diabetes (odds ratio [OR] 1.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-2.21, p = 0.030) and hypertension (OR 1.56, 95%CI 1.14-2.14, p = 0.005) were both predictive of abnormal FFRCT. In addition, >70% stenosis was significantly associated with low FFRCT (OR 31.16, 95%CI 12.25-79.22, p < 0.0001) vs. <30% stenosis. Notably, stenosis 30-49% vs. <30% had an increased likelihood of ischemia (OR 3.74, 95%CI 1.52-9.17, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In this real-world registry, CT angiographic stenosis severity in addition to baseline cardiovascular risk factors conferred an increased likelihood of an abnormal FFRCT. Importantly, however, mild CT angiographic stenoses were noted to have an increased hazard for ischemia and the converse holding true for more severe stenoses as well.

CT-Detected Growth of Coronary Artery Calcification in Asymptomatic Middle-Aged Subjects and Association With 15 Biomarkers.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine the incidence and progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in asymptomatic middle-aged subjects and to evaluate the value of a broad panel of biomarkers in the prediction of CAC growth. BACKGROUND: CAC continues to be a major risk factor, but the value of biochemical markers in predicting CAC incidence and progression remains unresolved. METHODS: At baseline, 1,227 men and women underwent traditional risk assessment and a computed tomography (CT) scan to determine the CAC score. Biomarkers of calcium-phosphate metabolism (calcium, phosphate, vitamin D3, parathyroid hormone, osteoprotegerin), lipid metabolism (triglyceride, high- and low-density lipoprotein, total cholesterol), inflammation (C-reactive protein, soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor), kidney function (creatinine, cystatin C, urate), and myocardial necrosis (cardiac troponin I) were analyzed. A second CT scan was scheduled after 5 years. General linear models were performed to examine the association between biomarkers and ΔCAC score, and additionally, sensitivity analyses were performed in terms of binary and ordinal logistic regressions. RESULTS: A total of 1,006 participants underwent a CT scan after 5 years. Among the 562 participants with a baseline CAC score of 0, 189 (34%) had incident CAC, whereas 214 (48%) of the 444 participants with baseline CAC score >0 had significant progression (>15% annual increase in CAC score). In the multivariate models (n = 1,006), age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and smoking were associated with ΔCAC, whereas the strongest predictor was baseline CAC score. Low-density lipoprotein and total cholesterol levels were independently associated with CAC incidence (n = 562; incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05 to 2.05; and IRR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.77, respectively), whereas phosphate level was associated with CAC progression (n = 444; IRR: 3.60; 95% CI: 1.42 to 9.11). CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective study, a large part of participants had incident CAC or progression of prevalent CAC at 5 years of follow-up. Low-density lipoprotein and total cholesterol were associated with CAC incidence and phosphate with CAC progression, whereas 12 other biomarkers had little value.