Modeling and estimating the feedback mechanisms among depression, rumination, and stressors in adolescents.

The systemic interactions among depressive symptoms, rumination, and stress are important to understanding depression but have not yet been quantified. In this article, we present a system dynamics simulation model of depression that captures the reciprocal relationships among stressors, rumination, and depression. Building on the response styles theory, this model formalizes three interdependent mechanisms: 1) Rumination contributes to 'keeping stressors alive'; 2) Rumination has a direct impact on depressive symptoms; and 3) Both 'stressors kept alive' and current depressive symptoms contribute to rumination. The strength of these mechanisms is estimated using data from 661 adolescents (353 girls and 308 boys) from two middle schools (grades 6-8). These estimates indicate that rumination contributes to depression by keeping stressors 'alive'-and the individual activated-even after the stressor has ended. This mechanism is stronger among girls than boys, increasing their vulnerability to a rumination reinforcing loop. Different profiles of depression emerge over time depending on initial levels of depressive symptoms, rumination, and stressors as well as the occurrence rate for stressors; levels of rumination and occurrence of stressors are stronger contributors to long-term depression. Our systems model is a steppingstone towards a more comprehensive understanding of depression in which reinforcing feedback mechanisms play a significant role. Future research is needed to expand this simulation model to incorporate other drivers of depression and provide a more holistic tool for studying depression.

Effect of temperature on emergence, survival and infectivity of cercariae of the marine trematode Renicola roscovita (Digenea: Renicolidae).

Marine bivalves harbour a diversity of trematode parasites affecting population and community dynamics of their hosts. Although ecologically and economically important, factors influencing transmission between first (snail) and second (bivalve) intermediate hosts have rarely been studied in marine systems. In laboratory experiments, the effect of temperature (10, 15, 20, 25 degrees C) was investigated on (1) emergence from snails, (2) survival outside hosts and (3) infectivity in second intermediate hosts of cercariae of the trematode Renicola roscovita (Digenea: Renicolidae), a major parasite in North Sea bivalves. Emergence of cercariae peaked at 20 degrees C (2609 +/- 478 cercariae snail(-1) 120 h(-1)) and was considerably lower at 10 degrees C (80 +/- 79), 15 degrees C (747 +/- 384) and 25 degrees C (1141 +/- 334). Survival time decreased with increasing temperature, resulting in 50% mortality of the cercariae after 32.8 +/- 0.6 h (10 degrees C), 26.8 +/- 0.8 h (15 degrees C), 20.2 +/- 0.5 h (20 degrees C) and 16.6 +/- 0.3 h (25 degrees C ). Infectivity of R. roscovita cercariae in cockles Cerastoderma edule increased with increasing temperature and was highest at 25 degrees C (42.6 +/- 3.9%). However, mesocosm experiments with infected snails and cockle hosts in small aquaria, integrating cercarial emergence, survival and infectivity, showed highest infection of cockles at 20 degrees C (415 +/- 115 metacercariae host(-1)), indicating 20 degrees C to be the optimum temperature for transmission of this species. A field experiment showed metacercariae of R. roscovita to appear in C. edule with rising water temperature in April; highest infection rates were in August, when the water temperature reached 20 degrees C. Since another trematode species (Himasthla elongata; Digenea: Echinostomatidae) occurring at the experimental site showed a similar temporal pattern, trematode transmission to second intermediate bivalve hosts may peak during especially warm (> or = 20 degrees C) summers in the variable climate regime of the North Sea.