A risk management framework for Gentle Remediation Options (GRO).

Gentle Remediation Options (GRO) are remediation measures involving plants, fungi, bacteria, and soil amendments that can be applied to manage risks at contaminated sites. Several studies and decision-support tools promote the wider range of benefits provided by GRO, but there is still skepticism regarding GRO implementation. Key issues that need to be better communicated are the various risk mitigation mechanisms, the required risk reduction for an envisioned land use, and the time perspective associated with the risk mitigation mechanisms. To increase the viability and acceptance of GRO, the phytomanagement approach implies the combination of GRO with beneficial green land use, gradually reducing risks and restoring ecosystem services. To strengthen the decision basis for GRO implementation in practice, this paper proposes a framework for risk management and communication of GRO applications to support phytomanagement strategies at contaminated sites. The mapping of the risk mitigation mechanisms is done by an extensive literature review and the Swedish national soil guideline value model is used to derive the most relevant human health exposure pathways and ecological risks for generic green land use scenarios. Results indicate that most of the expected risk mitigation mechanisms are supported by literature, but that knowledge gaps still exist. The framework is demonstrated to support the identification of GRO options for the case study site given two envisioned land uses: biofuel park and allotment garden. A more easily understandable risk management framework, as proposed here, is expected to act as a communication tool to educate decision-makers, regulatory bodies and other stakeholders for better understanding of risk mitigation mechanisms and preliminary timeframes of various GRO, particularly in the early stages of a brownfield redevelopment project.

Effects on groundwater storage of restoring, constructing or draining wetlands in temperate and boreal climates: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Drainage activities have caused widespread wetland loss, groundwater drawdown and impairment of ecosystem services. There are now several national programs for wetland restoration, primarily focused on reintroducing ecosystem services such as habitats and nutrient retention. In Sweden, recent dry summers have also reinforced interest in hydrological functions such as the potential for enhanced groundwater storage, both in and around the wetland. However, there are several knowledge gaps regarding groundwater storage effects of restoration, including if they extend beyond the wetland and how they vary with local conditions. Therefore, we have systematically reviewed groundwater storage effects from the interventions of restoring, constructing or draining boreo-temperate wetlands. Drainage was included primarily to evaluate to what degree restoration can reverse drainage effects. METHODS: We searched 8 databases for scientific journal publications in English, Swedish, Norwegian, Danish, French, German and Polish. Gray literature was searched in English and Swedish. Articles were included based on their relevance for Swedish conditions, i.e., in previously glaciated areas with boreal or temperate climate. Extracted outcome data were groundwater level changes, along with other variables including type of wetland and intervention and, when reported, distance between sampling point and intervention. Meta-analyses were conducted separately for studies that reported groundwater levels at different distances and studies that reported overall effects. Included studies were subject to critical appraisal to evaluate their susceptibility to bias, primarily selection bias, performance bias, and detection bias. Critical appraisal results were used in sensitivity analysis. REVIEW FINDINGS: Out of 11,288 screened records, 224 articles fulfilled the criteria, and from these, 146 studies were included in meta-analysis. Most studies (89%) investigated peatlands, primarily from Finland, the UK and Canada. Restoration and drainage studies were equally common. Only nine studies reported measurements beyond the wetland area. Our synthesis is therefore primarily focused on effects within wetlands. In peatland restoration, the observed groundwater level rise decreased exponentially with distance from the restored ditch and was reduced to 50% after 9 [95% confidence interval: 5, 26] m. Drainage reached somewhat farther, with 50% of the groundwater drawdown remaining at 21 [11, 64] m. On average, restoration increased groundwater levels by 22 [16, 28] cm near the intervention, whereas drainage caused a drawdown of 19 [10, 27] cm. Assuming that sampling was unbiased, effects were similar for bogs, fens and mires. Restricting the meta-analysis to the 58% of studies that were of high validity did not alter conclusions. CONCLUSIONS: Effects of peatland restoration and drainage were of similar magnitudes but opposite directions. This indicates that, on average, rewetting of drained peatlands can be expected to restore groundwater levels near the ditch. However, restoration may not reach all the area affected by drainage, and there was a strong dependence on local context. For managers of wetland projects, it is thus important to follow up and monitor restoration effects and reinforce the intervention if necessary. Our results also point to a need for better impact evaluation if increased storage beyond the restored wetland area is desired.

Assessing costs and benefits of improved soil quality management in remediation projects: A study of an urban site contaminated with PAH and metals.

Contaminants in the soil may threaten soil functions (SFs) and, in turn, hinder the delivery of ecosystem services (ES). A framework for ecological risk assessments (ERAs) within the APPLICERA - APPLICable site-specific Environmental Risk Assessment research project promotes assessments that consider other soil quality parameters than only contaminant concentrations. The developed framework is: (i) able to differentiate the effects of contamination on SFs from the effects of other soil qualities essential for soil biota; and (ii) provides a robust basis for improved soil quality management in remediation projects. This study evaluates the socio-economic consequences of remediation alternatives stemming from a Tier 1 ERA that focusses on total contaminant concentrations and soil quality standards and a detailed, site-specific Tier 3 Triad approach that is based on the APPLICERA framework. The present study demonstrates how Tier 1 and Tier 3 ERAs differ in terms of the socio-economic consequences of their remediation actions, as well as presents a novel method for the semi-quantitative assessment of on-site ES. Although the presented Tier 3 ERA is more expensive and time-consuming than the more traditional Tier 1 ERA approach, it has the potential to lower the costs of remediation actions, decrease greenhouse gas emissions, reduce other environmental impacts, and minimise socio-economic losses. Furthermore, the remediation actions stemming from the Tier 3 ERA were predicted to exert far less negative ES effects than the actions proposed based on the results of the Tier 1 ERA.

Enriching social and economic aspects in sustainability assessments of remediation strategies - Methods and implementation.

Over the last decade, there has been rapid development in promoting and implementing sustainable remediation. It is now common to include at least some sustainability considerations in remediation projects. Specific challenges that have been highlighted often relate to economic and social aspects not receiving enough attention: broadening the social aspects, community and meaningful stakeholder engagement, understanding stakeholders' risk perception, and a need for better estimates of site-specific economic costs and benefits. This study presents an application of the Sustainable Choice of REmediation (SCORE) framework with special focus on (1) demonstrating the working process for a broad sustainability assessment and (2) sharing the lessons learned from its application. Specific objectives are to describe (a) the types of stakeholders involved in the assessment, (b) the methods for collection of social and economic sustainability data, (c) residents' perception of risks, (d) the use of the sustainability assessment results in the decision-making process, and (5) possibilities for improving the methods and working process. SCORE was applied and evaluated with input from, and together with, stakeholders at the BT Kemi industrial site in the village of Teckomatorp, south Sweden, a former pesticide production site associated with the most infamous Swedish environmental scandal. A questionnaire (n = 78) was used to collect input from residents regarding local acceptance and economic externalities of the remediation alternatives. Alternatives with a high degree of removal of contaminants received a high ranking in the assessment, primarily due to social and economic effects. The working process can be improved, specifically regarding workshop preparation and workshop structure. A broad representation of stakeholders and early establishment of communication channels to residents is key for robust assessment of social aspects. The information from the sustainability assessment was used in the decision-making process, not least for revising remediation options.

A state-of-the-art model for spatial and stochastic oil spill risk assessment: A case study of oil spill from a shipwreck.

Oil spills are serious environmental issues that potentially can cause adverse effects on marine ecosystems. In some marine areas, like the Baltic Sea, there is a large number of wrecks from the first half of the 20th century, and recent monitoring and field work have revealed release of oil from some of these wrecks. The risk posed by a wreck is governed by its condition, hazardous substances contained in the wreck and the state of the surrounding environment. Therefore, there is a need for a common standard method for estimating the risks associated with different wrecks. In this work a state-of-the-art model is presented for spatial and stochastic risk assessment of oil spills from wrecks, enabling a structured approach to include the complex factors affecting the risk values. A unique feature of this model is its specific focus on uncertainty, facilitating probabilistic calculation of the total risk as the integral expected sum of many possible consequences. A case study is performed in Kattegat at the entrance region to the Baltic Sea to map the risk from a wreck near Sweden. The developed model can be used for oil spill risk assessment in the marine environment all over the world.

Risk Mapping of Groundwater-Drawdown-Induced Land Subsidence in Heterogeneous Soils on Large Areas.

Groundwater leakage into subsurface constructions can cause reduction of pore pressure and subsidence in clay deposits, even at large distances from the location of the construction. The potential cost of damage is substantial, particularly in urban areas. The large-scale process also implies heterogeneous soil conditions that cannot be described in complete detail, which causes a need for estimating uncertainty of subsidence with probabilistic methods. In this study, the risk for subsidence is estimated by coupling two probabilistic models, a geostatistics-based soil stratification model with a subsidence model. Statistical analyses of stratification and soil properties are inputs into the models. The results include spatially explicit probabilistic estimates of subsidence magnitude and sensitivities of included model parameters. From these, areas with significant risk for subsidence are distinguished from low-risk areas. The efficiency and usefulness of this modeling approach as a tool for communication to stakeholders, decision support for prioritization of risk-reducing measures, and identification of the need for further investigations and monitoring are demonstrated with a case study of a planned tunnel in Stockholm.

Sustainability assessments of regional water supply interventions - Combining cost-benefit and multi-criteria decision analyses.

To cope with present and future challenges, a growing number of water utilities in Sweden, Europe and elsewhere initiate various forms of inter-municipal cooperations creating a new regional level of drinking water governance. In order to reach viable decisions of alternative ways forward, there is an international consensus that sustainability needs to be addressed in water supply planning, design and decision-making. There are, however, few decision aids focusing on assessing the sustainability of inter-municipal cooperations and the inter-municipal policies and interventions that regional decision-makers are faced with. This paper presents a decision support model based on a combination of cost-benefit analysis and multi-criteria decision analysis for assessing the sustainability of regional water supply interventions, including formations of inter-municipal cooperations. The proposed decision support model integrates quantitative and semi-quantitative information on sustainability criteria. It provides a novel way of presenting monetized benefits and costs, capturing utilitarian aspects of alternative interventions, with non-monetized social and environmental effects, capturing aspects based in the deontological theories of moral ethics. The model is based on a probabilistic approach where uncertainties are defined by statistical probability distributions. A case study is used to exemplify and evaluate model application in decision situations regarding regionalization, (de)centralization, source water quality and redundancy. All evaluated alternatives were expected to contribute to a slightly improved social sustainability, whereas the results were more varying in the economic and environmental domains. A structured and transparent treatment of uncertainties facilitates a better understanding of the results as well as communication between decision-makers, stakeholders and the community.

What's the point? The contribution of a sustainability view in contaminated site remediation.

Decision support tools (DST) are often used in remediation projects to aid in the complex decision on how best to remediate a contaminated site. In recent years, the sustainable remediation concept has brought increased attention to the often-overlooked contradictory effects of site remediation, with a number of sustainability assessment tools now available. The aim of the present study is twofold: (1) to demonstrate how and when different assessment views affect the decision support outcome on remediation alternatives in a DST, and (2) to demonstrate the contribution of a full sustainability assessment. The SCORE tool was used in the analysis; it is based on a holistic multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach, assessing sustainability in three dimensions: environmental, social, and economic. Four assessment scenarios, compared to a full sustainability assessment, were considered to reflect different possible assessment views; considering public and private problem owner perspectives, as well as green and traditional assessment scopes. Four real case study sites in Sweden were analyzed. The results show that the decision support outcome from a full sustainability assessment most often differs to that of other assessment views, and results in remediation alternatives which balance trade-offs in most of the scenarios. In relation to the public perspective and traditional scope, which is seen to lead to the most extensive and expensive remediation alternatives, the trade-off is related to less contaminant removal in favour of reduced negative secondary effects such as emissions and waste disposal. Compared to the private perspective, associated with the lowest cost alternatives, the trade-off is higher costs, but more positive environmental and social effects. Generally, both the green and traditional assessment scopes miss out on relevant social and local environmental secondary effects which may ultimately be very important for the actual decision in a remediation project.

Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10-4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local settings of drinking water systems. The model provides a clear and holistic structure for decisions related to microbial risk mitigation. To improve the decision model, we suggest to further develop the valuation and monetisation of health effects and to refine the propagation of uncertainties and variabilities between the included methods.

Cost-benefit analysis of copper recovery in remediation projects: A case study from Sweden.

Contamination resulting from past industrial activity is a problem throughout the world and many sites are severely contaminated by metals. Advances in research in recent years have resulted in the development of technologies for recovering metal from metal-rich materials within the framework of remediation projects. Using cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and explicitly taking uncertainties into account, this paper evaluates the potential social profitability of copper recovery as part of four remediation alternatives at a Swedish site. One alternative involves delivery of copper-rich ash to a metal production company for refining. The other three alternatives involve metal leaching from materials and sale of the resulting metal sludge for its further processing at a metal production company using metallurgical methods. All the alternatives are evaluated relative to the conventional excavation and disposal method. Metal recovery from the ash, metal sludge sale, and disposal of the contaminated soil and the ash residue at the local landfill site, was found to be the best remediation alternative. However, given the present conditions, its economic potential is low relative to the conventional excavation and disposal method but higher than direct disposal of the copper-rich ash for refining. Volatile copper prices, the high cost of processing equipment, the highly uncertain cost of the metal leaching and washing process, coupled with the substantial project risks, contribute most to the uncertainties in the CBA results for the alternatives involving metal leaching prior to refining. However, investment in processing equipment within the framework of a long-term investment project, production of safe, reusable soil residue, and higher copper prices on the metal market, can make metal recovery technology socially profitable.

Integration of the subsurface and the surface sectors for a more holistic approach for sustainable redevelopment of urban brownfields.

This paper presents a holistic approach to sustainable urban brownfield redevelopment where specific focus is put on the integration of a multitude of subsurface qualities in the early phases of the urban redevelopment process, i.e. in the initiative and plan phases. Achieving sustainability in brownfield redevelopment projects may be constrained by a failure of engagement between two key expert constituencies: urban planners/designers and subsurface engineers, leading to missed opportunities and unintended outcomes in the plan realisation phase. A more integrated approach delivers greater benefits. Three case studies in the Netherlands, Belgium and Sweden were used to test different sustainability assessment instruments in terms of the possibility for knowledge exchange between the subsurface and the surface sectors and in terms of cooperative learning among experts and stakeholders. Based on the lessons learned from the case studies, a generic decision process framework is suggested that supports holistic decision making. The suggested framework focuses on stakeholder involvement, communication, knowledge exchange and learning and provides an inventory of instruments that can support these processes.

Cost-benefit analysis as a part of sustainability assessment of remediation alternatives for contaminated land.

There is an increasing demand amongst decision-makers and stakeholders for identifying sustainable remediation alternatives at contaminated sites, taking into account that remediation typically results in both positive and negative consequences. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) is increasingly used for sustainability appraisal, and the Excel-based MCA tool Sustainable Choice Of REmediation (SCORE) has been developed to provide a relevant and transparent assessment of the sustainability of remediation alternatives relative to a reference alternative, considering key criteria in the economic, environmental and social sustainability domains, and taking uncertainty into explicit account through simulation. The focus of this paper is the use of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) as a part of SCORE for assessing the economic sustainability of remediation alternatives. An economic model is used for deriving a cost-benefit rule, which in turn motivates cost and benefit items in a CBA of remediation alternatives. The empirical part of the paper is a CBA application on remediation alternatives for the Hexion site, a former chemical industry area close to the city of Göteborg in SW Sweden. The impact of uncertainties in and correlations across benefit and cost items on CBA results is illustrated. For the Hexion site, the traditional excavation-and-disposal remediation alternative had the lowest expected net present value, which illustrates the importance of also considering other alternatives before deciding upon how a remediation should be carried out.

SCORE: a novel multi-criteria decision analysis approach to assessing the sustainability of contaminated land remediation.

The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method provides for a comprehensive and transparent basis for performing sustainability assessments. Development of a relevant MCDA-method requires consideration of a number of key issues, e.g. (a) definition of assessment boundaries, (b) definition of performance scales, both temporal and spatial, (c) selection of relevant criteria (indicators) that facilitate a comprehensive sustainability assessment while avoiding double-counting of effects, and (d) handling of uncertainties. Adding to the complexity is the typically wide variety of inputs, including quantifications based on existing data, expert judgements, and opinions expressed in interviews. The SCORE (Sustainable Choice Of REmediation) MCDA-method was developed to provide a transparent assessment of the sustainability of possible remediation alternatives for contaminated sites relative to a reference alternative, considering key criteria in the economic, environmental, and social sustainability domains. The criteria were identified based on literature studies, interviews and focus-group meetings. SCORE combines a linear additive model to rank the alternatives with a non-compensatory approach to identify alternatives regarded as non-sustainable. The key strengths of the SCORE method are as follows: a framework that at its core is designed to be flexible and transparent; the possibility to integrate both quantitative and qualitative estimations on criteria; its ability, unlike other sustainability assessment tools used in industry and academia, to allow for the alteration of boundary conditions where necessary; the inclusion of a full uncertainty analysis of the results, using Monte Carlo simulation; and a structure that allows preferences and opinions of involved stakeholders to be openly integrated into the analysis. A major insight from practical application of SCORE is that its most important contribution may be that it initiates a process where criteria otherwise likely ignored are addressed and openly discussed between stakeholders.

SF Box--a tool for evaluating the effects on soil functions in remediation projects.

Although remediation is usually aimed at reducing the risks posed by contaminants to human health and the environment, it is also desirable that the remediated soil within future green spaces is capable of providing relevant ecological functions, e.g., basis for primary production. Yet while addressing a contamination problem by reducing contaminant concentration and/or amounts in the soil, the remedial action itself can lead to soil structure disturbances, decline in organic matter and nutrient deficiencies, and in turn affect a soil's capacity to carry out its ecological soil functions. This article presents the Soil Function Box (SF Box) tool that is aimed to facilitate integration of information from suggested soil quality indicators (SQIs) into a management process in remediation using a scoring method. The scored SQIs are integrated into a soil quality index corresponding to 1 of 5 classes. SF Box is applied to 2 cases from Sweden (Kvillebäcken and Hexion), explicitly taking into consideration uncertainties in the results by means of Monte Carlo simulations. At both sites the generated soil quality indices corresponded to a medium soil performance (soil class 3) with a high certainty. The main soil constraints at both Kvillebäcken and Hexion were associated with biological activity in the soil, as soil organisms were unable to supply plant-available N. At the Kvillebäcken site the top layer had a content of coarse fragment (ø > 2 mm) higher than 35%, indicating plant rooting limitations. At the Hexion site, the soil had limited amount of organic matter, thus poor aggregate stability and nutrient cycling potential. In contrast, the soil at Kvillebäcken was rich in organic matter. The soils at both sites were capable of storing a sufficient amount of water for soil organisms between precipitation events.

Using soil function evaluation in multi-criteria decision analysis for sustainability appraisal of remediation alternatives.

Soil contamination is one of the major threats constraining proper functioning of the soil and thus provision of ecosystem services. Remedial actions typically only address the chemical soil quality by reducing total contaminant concentrations to acceptable levels guided by land use. However, emerging regulatory requirements on soil protection demand a holistic view on soil assessment in remediation projects thus accounting for a variety of soil functions. Such a view would require not only that the contamination concentrations are assessed and attended to, but also that other aspects are taking into account, thus addressing also physical and biological as well as other chemical soil quality indicators (SQIs). This study outlines how soil function assessment can be a part of a holistic sustainability appraisal of remediation alternatives using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The paper presents a method for practitioners for evaluating the effects of remediation alternatives on selected ecological soil functions using a suggested minimum data set (MDS) containing physical, biological and chemical SQIs. The measured SQIs are transformed into sub-scores by the use of scoring curves, which allows interpretation and the integration of soil quality data into the MCDA framework. The method is demonstrated at a study site (Marieberg, Sweden) and the results give an example of how soil analyses using the suggested MDS can be used for soil function assessment and subsequent input to the MCDA framework.

A methodology for estimating risks associated with landslides of contaminated soil into rivers.

Urban areas adjacent to surface water are exposed to soil movements such as erosion and slope failures (landslides). A landslide is a potential mechanism for mobilisation and spreading of pollutants. This mechanism is in general not included in environmental risk assessments for contaminated sites, and the consequences associated with contamination in the soil are typically not considered in landslide risk assessments. This study suggests a methodology to estimate the environmental risks associated with landslides in contaminated sites adjacent to rivers. The methodology is probabilistic and allows for datasets with large uncertainties and the use of expert judgements, providing quantitative estimates of probabilities for defined failures. The approach is illustrated by a case study along the river Göta Älv, Sweden, where failures are defined and probabilities for those failures are estimated. Failures are defined from a pollution perspective and in terms of exceeding environmental quality standards (EQSs) and acceptable contaminant loads. Models are then suggested to estimate probabilities of these failures. A landslide analysis is carried out to assess landslide probabilities based on data from a recent landslide risk classification study along the river Göta Älv. The suggested methodology is meant to be a supplement to either landslide risk assessment (LRA) or environmental risk assessment (ERA), providing quantitative estimates of the risks associated with landslide in contaminated sites. The proposed methodology can also act as a basis for communication and discussion, thereby contributing to intersectoral management solutions. From the case study it was found that the defined failures are governed primarily by the probability of a landslide occurring. The overall probabilities for failure are low; however, if a landslide occurs the probabilities of exceeding EQS are high and the probability of having at least a 10% increase in the contamination load within one year is also high.

Incorporating the soil function concept into sustainability appraisal of remediation alternatives.

Soil functions are critical for ecosystem survival and thus for an ecosystem's provision of services to humans. This is recognized in the proposed EU Soil Framework Directive from 2006, which lists seven important soil functions and services to be considered in a soil management practice. Emerging regulatory requirements demand a holistic view on soil evaluation in remediation projects. This paper presents a multi-scale, structured and transparent approach for incorporating the soil function concept into sustainability appraisal of remediation alternatives using a set of ecological, socio-cultural and economic criteria. The basis for the presented approach is a conceptualization of the linkages between soil functions and ecosystem services connected to with the sustainability paradigm. The approach suggests using (1) soil quality indicators (i.e. physical, chemical and biological soil properties) for exploring the performance of soil functions at the site level, and (2) soil service indicators (i.e. value-related measurements) for evaluating the performance of services resulting from soil functions across all levels of the spatial scale. The suggested approach is demonstrated by application in a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework for sustainability appraisals of remediation alternatives. Further, the possibilities of using soil quality indicators for soil function evaluation are explored by reviewing existing literature on potential negative and positive effects of remediation technologies on the functionality of the treated soil. The suggested approach for including the soil function concept in remediation projects is believed to provide a basis for better informed decisions that will facilitate efficient management of contaminated land and to meet emerging regulatory requirements on soil protection.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction.

Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

Value of information analysis in remedial investigations.

Site investigations of contaminated land are associated with high costs. From a societal perspective, just enough economic resources should be spent on investigations so that society's limited resources can be used optimally. The solution is to design investigation programs that are cost effective, which can be performed using value of information analysis (VOIA). The principle of VOIA is to compare the benefit at the present state of knowledge with the benefit that is expected after an investigation has been performed. A framework for VOIA of site investigations is presented based on Bayesian risk-cost-benefit decision analysis. The result is an estimate of the value of an investigation program and, for specific problems, the optimal number of samples. The main strength of the methodology is that it promotes clear thinking and compels the decision maker to reflect on issues that otherwise would be ignored. The main weakness is the complexity of VOIA models.