The brain structure, inflammatory, and genetic mechanisms mediate the association between physical frailty and depression.

Cross-sectional studies have demonstrated strong associations between physical frailty and depression. However, the evidence from prospective studies is limited. Here, we analyze data of 352,277 participants from UK Biobank with 12.25-year follow-up. Compared with non-frail individuals, pre-frail and frail individuals have increased risk for incident depression independent of many putative confounds. Altogether, pre-frail and frail individuals account for 20.58% and 13.16% of depression cases by population attributable fraction analyses. Higher risks are observed in males and individuals younger than 65 years than their counterparts. Mendelian randomization analyses support a potential causal effect of frailty on depression. Associations are also observed between inflammatory markers, brain volumes, and incident depression. Moreover, these regional brain volumes and three inflammatory markers-C-reactive protein, neutrophils, and leukocytes-significantly mediate associations between frailty and depression. Given the scarcity of curative treatment for depression and the high disease burden, identifying potential modifiable risk factors of depression, such as frailty, is needed.

Data leakage inflates prediction performance in connectome-based machine learning models.

Predictive modeling is a central technique in neuroimaging to identify brain-behavior relationships and test their generalizability to unseen data. However, data leakage undermines the validity of predictive models by breaching the separation between training and test data. Leakage is always an incorrect practice but still pervasive in machine learning. Understanding its effects on neuroimaging predictive models can inform how leakage affects existing literature. Here, we investigate the effects of five forms of leakage-involving feature selection, covariate correction, and dependence between subjects-on functional and structural connectome-based machine learning models across four datasets and three phenotypes. Leakage via feature selection and repeated subjects drastically inflates prediction performance, whereas other forms of leakage have minor effects. Furthermore, small datasets exacerbate the effects of leakage. Overall, our results illustrate the variable effects of leakage and underscore the importance of avoiding data leakage to improve the validity and reproducibility of predictive modeling.

Brain-phenotype predictions can survive across diverse real-world data.

Recent work suggests that machine learning models predicting psychiatric treatment outcomes based on clinical data may fail when applied to unharmonized samples. Neuroimaging predictive models offer the opportunity to incorporate neurobiological information, which may be more robust to dataset shifts. Yet, among the minority of neuroimaging studies that undertake any form of external validation, there is a notable lack of attention to generalization across dataset-specific idiosyncrasies. Research settings, by design, remove the between-site variations that real-world and, eventually, clinical applications demand. Here, we rigorously test the ability of a range of predictive models to generalize across three diverse, unharmonized samples: the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (n=1291), the Healthy Brain Network (n=1110), and the Human Connectome Project in Development (n=428). These datasets have high inter-dataset heterogeneity, encompassing substantial variations in age distribution, sex, racial and ethnic minority representation, recruitment geography, clinical symptom burdens, fMRI tasks, sequences, and behavioral measures. We demonstrate that reproducible and generalizable brain-behavior associations can be realized across diverse dataset features with sample sizes in the hundreds. Results indicate the potential of functional connectivity-based predictive models to be robust despite substantial inter-dataset variability. Notably, for the HCPD and HBN datasets, the best predictions were not from training and testing in the same dataset (i.e., cross-validation) but across datasets. This result suggests that training on diverse data may improve prediction in specific cases. Overall, this work provides a critical foundation for future work evaluating the generalizability of neuroimaging predictive models in real-world scenarios and clinical settings.

Power and reproducibility in the external validation of brain-phenotype predictions.

Identifying reproducible and generalizable brain-phenotype associations is a central goal of neuroimaging. Consistent with this goal, prediction frameworks evaluate brain-phenotype models in unseen data. Most prediction studies train and evaluate a model in the same dataset. However, external validation, or the evaluation of a model in an external dataset, provides a better assessment of robustness and generalizability. Despite the promise of external validation and calls for its usage, the statistical power of such studies has yet to be investigated. In this work, we ran over 60 million simulations across several datasets, phenotypes, and sample sizes to better understand how the sizes of the training and external datasets affect statistical power. We found that prior external validation studies used sample sizes prone to low power, which may lead to false negatives and effect size inflation. Furthermore, increases in the external sample size led to increased simulated power directly following theoretical power curves, whereas changes in the training dataset size offset the simulated power curves. Finally, we compared the performance of a model within a dataset to the external performance. The within-dataset performance was typically within r=0.2 of the cross-dataset performance, which could help decide how to power future external validation studies. Overall, our results illustrate the importance of considering the sample sizes of both the training and external datasets when performing external validation.

Connectome-based machine learning models are vulnerable to subtle data manipulations.

Neuroimaging-based predictive models continue to improve in performance, yet a widely overlooked aspect of these models is "trustworthiness," or robustness to data manipulations. High trustworthiness is imperative for researchers to have confidence in their findings and interpretations. In this work, we used functional connectomes to explore how minor data manipulations influence machine learning predictions. These manipulations included a method to falsely enhance prediction performance and adversarial noise attacks designed to degrade performance. Although these data manipulations drastically changed model performance, the original and manipulated data were extremely similar (r = 0.99) and did not affect other downstream analysis. Essentially, connectome data could be inconspicuously modified to achieve any desired prediction performance. Overall, our enhancement attacks and evaluation of existing adversarial noise attacks in connectome-based models highlight the need for counter-measures that improve the trustworthiness to preserve the integrity of academic research and any potential translational applications.

Cross Atlas Remapping via Optimal Transport (CAROT): Creating connectomes for different atlases when raw data is not available.

Open-source, publicly available neuroimaging datasets - whether from large-scale data collection efforts or pooled from multiple smaller studies - offer unprecedented sample sizes and promote generalization efforts. Releasing data can democratize science, increase the replicability of findings, and lead to discoveries. Partly due to patient privacy, computational, and data storage concerns, researchers typically release preprocessed data with the voxelwise time series parcellated into a map of predefined regions, known as an atlas. However, releasing preprocessed data also limits the choices available to the end-user. This is especially true for connectomics, as connectomes created from different atlases are not directly comparable. Since there exist several atlases with no gold standards, it is unrealistic to have processed, open-source data available from all atlases. Together, these limitations directly inhibit the potential benefits of open-source neuroimaging data. To address these limitations, we introduce Cross Atlas Remapping via Optimal Transport (CAROT) to find a mapping between two atlases. This approach allows data processed from one atlas to be directly transformed into a connectome based on another atlas without the need for raw data access. To validate CAROT, we compare reconstructed connectomes against their original counterparts (i.e., connectomes generated directly from an atlas), demonstrate the utility of transformed connectomes in downstream analyses, and show how a connectome-based predictive model can generalize to publicly available data that was processed with different atlases. Overall, CAROT can reconstruct connectomes from an extensive set of atlases - without needing the raw data - allowing already processed connectomes to be easily reused in a wide range of analyses while eliminating redundant processing efforts. We share this tool as both source code and as a stand-alone web application (http://carotproject.com/).

Elevated C-reactive protein mediates the liver-brain axis: a preliminary study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic liver diseases of all etiologies exist along a spectrum with varying degrees of hepatic fibrosis. Despite accumulating evidence implying associations between liver fibrosis and cognitive functioning, there is limited research exploring the underlying neurobiological factors and the possible mediating role of inflammation on the liver-brain axis. METHODS: Using data from the UK Biobank, we examined the cross-sectional association of liver fibrosis (as measured by Fibrosis-4 score) with cognitive functioning and regional grey matter volumes (GMVs) while adjusting for numerous covariates and multiple comparisons. We further performed post-hoc preliminary analysis to investigate the mediating effect of C-reactive protein (CRP) on the association between liver fibrosis and both cognitive functioning and GMVs. FINDINGS: We analysed behaviour from up to 447,626 participants (N ranged from 45,055 to 447,533 per specific cognitive metric) 37 years and older. 38,244 participants (age range 44-82 years) had GMV data collected at a median 9-year follow-up. Liver fibrosis showed significant associations with cognitive performance in reasoning, working memory, visual memory, prospective memory, executive function, and processing speed. Subgroup analysis indicated larger effects sizes for symbol digital substitution but smaller effect sizes for trail making in middle-aged people than their old counterparts. Neuroimaging analyses revealed significant associations between liver fibrosis and reduced regional GMVs, primarily in the hippocampus, thalamus, ventral striatum, parahippocampal gyrus, brain stem, and cerebellum. CRP levels were significantly higher in adults with advanced liver fibrosis than those without, indicating an elevated systemic inflammation. Moreover, the serum CRP significantly mediated the effect of liver fibrosis on most cognitive measures and regional GMVs in the hippocampus and brain stem. INTERPRETATION: This study provides a well-powered characterization of associations between liver fibrosis, cognitive impairment, and grey matter atrophy. It also highlights the possibly mediating role of systemic inflammation on the liver-brain axis. Early surveillance and prevention of liver diseases may reduce cognitive decline and brain GMV loss. FUNDING: National Science Foundation, and National Institutes of Health.

Altered Brain Dynamics Across Bipolar Disorder and Schizophrenia During Rest and Task Switching Revealed by Overlapping Brain States.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with bipolar disorder (BD) and schizophrenia (SCZ) show aberrant brain dynamics (i.e., altered recruitment or traversal through different brain states over time). Existing investigations of brain dynamics typically assume that one dominant brain state characterizes each time point. However, as multiple brain states likely are engaged at any given moment, this approach can obscure alterations in less prominent but critical brain states. Here, we examined brain dynamics in BD and SCZ by implementing a novel framework that simultaneously assessed the engagement of multiple brain states. METHODS: Four recurring brain states were identified by applying nonlinear manifold learning and k-means clustering to the Human Connectome Project task-based functional magnetic resonance imaging data. We then assessed moment-to-moment state engagement in 2 independent samples of healthy control participants and patients with BD or SCZ using resting-state (N = 336) or task-based (N = 217) functional magnetic resonance imaging data. Relative state engagement and state engagement variability were extracted and compared across groups using multivariate analysis of covariance, controlling for site, medication, age, and sex. RESULTS: Our framework identified dynamic alterations in BD and SCZ, while a state discretization approach revealed no significant group differences. Participants with BD or SCZ showed reduced state engagement variability, but not relative state engagement, across multiple brain states during resting-state and task-based functional magnetic resonance imaging. We found decreased state engagement variability in older participants and preliminary evidence suggesting an association with avolition. CONCLUSIONS: Assessing multiple brain states simultaneously can reflect the complexity of aberrant brain dynamics in BD and SCZ, providing a more comprehensive understanding of the neural mechanisms underpinning these conditions.

Associations of physical frailty with health outcomes and brain structure in 483 033 middle-aged and older adults: a population-based study from the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Physical frailty is a state of increased vulnerability to stressors and is associated with serious health issues. However, how frailty affects and is affected by numerous other factors, including mental health and brain structure, remains underexplored. We aimed to investigate the mutual effects of frailty and health using large, multidimensional data. METHODS: For this population-based study, we used data from the UK Biobank to examine the pattern and direction of association between physical frailty and 325 health-related measures across multiple domains, using linear mixed-effect models and adjusting for numerous confounders. Participants were included if complete data were available for all five indicators of frailty, all covariates, and at least one health measure. We further examined the association between frailty and brain structure and the role of this association in mediating the relationship between frailty and health outcomes. FINDINGS: 483 033 participants aged 38-73 years were included in the study at baseline (between Dec 19, 2006, and Oct 1, 2010); at a median follow-up of 9 years (IQR 8-10), behavioural data were available for 46 501 participants and neuroimaging data for 40 210 participants. The severity of physical frailty was significantly associated with decreased cognitive performance (Cohen's d=0·025-0·162), increased early-life risks (d=0·026-0·111), unhealthy lifestyle (d=0·013-0·394), poor physical fitness (d=0·007-0·668), increased symptoms of poor mental health (d=0·032-0·607), severe environmental pollution (d=0·013-0·064), and adverse biochemical markers (d=0·025-0·198). Some associations were bidirectional, with the strongest effects on mental health measures. The severity of frailty correlated with increased total white matter hyperintensity and lower grey matter volume, particularly in subcortical regions (d=0·027-0·082), which significantly mediated the association between frailty and health-related outcomes, although the mediated effects were small. INTERPRETATION: Physical frailty is associated with diverse unfavourable health-related outcomes, which can be mediated by differences in brain structure. Our findings offer a framework for guiding preventative strategies targeting both frailty and psychiatric disorders. FUNDING: National Institute of Mental Health, National Science Foundation.

Stacking multiple optimal transport policies to map functional connectomes.

Connectomics is a popular approach for understanding the brain with neuroimaging data. However, a connectome generated from one atlas is different in size, topology, and scale compared to a connectome generated from another. Consequently, connectomes generated from different atlases cannot be used in the same analysis. This limitation hinders efforts toward increasing sample size and demonstrating generalizability across datasets. Recently, we proposed Cross Atlas Remapping via Optimal Transport (CAROT) to find a spatial mapping between a pair of atlases based on a set of training data. The mapping transforms timeseries fMRI data parcellated with an atlas to form a connectome based on a different one. Crucially, CAROT does not need raw fMRI data and thus does not require re-processing, which can otherwise be time-consuming and expensive. The current CAROT implementation leverages information from several source atlases to create robust mappings for a target atlas. In this work, we extend CAROT to combine existing mappings between a source and target atlas for an arbitrary number of mappings. This extension (labeled Stacking CAROT) allows mappings between a pair of atlases to be created once and re-used with other pre-trained mappings to create new mappings as needed. Reconstructed connectomes from Stacking CAROT perform as well as those from CAROT in downstream analyses. Importantly, Stacking CAROT significantly reduces training time and storage requirements compared to CAROT. Overall, Stacking CAROT improves previous versions of CAROT.

Machine Learning and Prediction in Fetal, Infant, and Toddler Neuroimaging: A Review and Primer.

Predictive models in neuroimaging are increasingly designed with the intent to improve risk stratification and support interventional efforts in psychiatry. Many of these models have been developed in samples of children school-aged or older. Nevertheless, despite growing evidence that altered brain maturation during the fetal, infant, and toddler (FIT) period modulates risk for poor mental health outcomes in childhood, these models are rarely implemented in FIT samples. Applications of predictive modeling in children of these ages provide an opportunity to develop powerful tools for improved characterization of the neural mechanisms underlying development. To facilitate the broader use of predictive models in FIT neuroimaging, we present a brief primer and systematic review on the methods used in current predictive modeling FIT studies. Reflecting on current practices in more than 100 studies conducted over the past decade, we provide an overview of topics, modalities, and methods commonly used in the field and under-researched areas. We then outline ethical and future considerations for neuroimaging researchers interested in predicting health outcomes in early life, including researchers who may be relatively new to either advanced machine learning methods or using FIT data. Altogether, the last decade of FIT research in machine learning has provided a foundation for accelerating the prediction of early-life trajectories across the full spectrum of illness and health.

Gradient-based enhancement attacks in biomedical machine learning.

The prevalence of machine learning in biomedical research is rapidly growing, yet the trustworthiness of such research is often overlooked. While some previous works have investigated the ability of adversarial attacks to degrade model performance in medical imaging, the ability to falsely improve performance via recently-developed "enhancement attacks" may be a greater threat to biomedical machine learning. In the spirit of developing attacks to better understand trustworthiness, we developed two techniques to drastically enhance prediction performance of classifiers with minimal changes to features: 1) general enhancement of prediction performance, and 2) enhancement of a particular method over another. Our enhancement framework falsely improved classifiers' accuracy from 50% to almost 100% while maintaining high feature similarities between original and enhanced data (Pearson's r's > 0.99). Similarly, the method-specific enhancement framework was effective in falsely improving the performance of one method over another. For example, a simple neural network outperformed logistic regression by 17% on our enhanced dataset, although no performance differences were present in the original dataset. Crucially, the original and enhanced data were still similar (r = 0.99). Our results demonstrate the feasibility of minor data manipulations to achieve any desired prediction performance, which presents an interesting ethical challenge for the future of biomedical machine learning. These findings emphasize the need for more robust data provenance tracking and other precautionary measures to ensure the integrity of biomedical machine learning research. Code is available at https://github.com/mattrosenblatt7/enhancement_EPIMI.

The effects of data leakage on connectome-based machine learning models.

Predictive modeling has now become a central technique in neuroimaging to identify complex brain-behavior relationships and test their generalizability to unseen data. However, data leakage, which unintentionally breaches the separation between data used to train and test the model, undermines the validity of predictive models. Previous literature suggests that leakage is generally pervasive in machine learning, but few studies have empirically evaluated the effects of leakage in neuroimaging data. Although leakage is always an incorrect practice, understanding the effects of leakage on neuroimaging predictive models provides insight into the extent to which leakage may affect the literature. Here, we investigated the effects of leakage on machine learning models in two common neuroimaging modalities, functional and structural connectomes. Using over 400 different pipelines spanning four large datasets and three phenotypes, we evaluated five forms of leakage fitting into three broad categories: feature selection, covariate correction, and lack of independence between subjects. As expected, leakage via feature selection and repeated subjects drastically inflated prediction performance. Notably, other forms of leakage had only minor effects (e.g., leaky site correction) or even decreased prediction performance (e.g., leaky covariate regression). In some cases, leakage affected not only prediction performance, but also model coefficients, and thus neurobiological interpretations. Finally, we found that predictive models using small datasets were more sensitive to leakage. Overall, our results illustrate the variable effects of leakage on prediction pipelines and underscore the importance of avoiding data leakage to improve the validity and reproducibility of predictive modeling.

Associations between grip strength, brain structure, and mental health in > 40,000 participants from the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Grip strength is a widely used and well-validated measure of overall health that is increasingly understood to index risk for psychiatric illness and neurodegeneration in older adults. However, existing work has not examined how grip strength relates to a comprehensive set of mental health outcomes, which can detect early signs of cognitive decline. Furthermore, whether brain structure mediates associations between grip strength and cognition remains unknown. METHODS: Based on cross-sectional and longitudinal data from over 40,000 participants in the UK Biobank, this study investigated the behavioral and neural correlates of handgrip strength using a linear mixed effect model and mediation analysis. RESULTS: In cross-sectional analysis, we found that greater grip strength was associated with better cognitive functioning, higher life satisfaction, greater subjective well-being, and reduced depression and anxiety symptoms while controlling for numerous demographic, anthropometric, and socioeconomic confounders. Further, grip strength of females showed stronger associations with most behavioral outcomes than males. In longitudinal analysis, baseline grip strength was related to cognitive performance at ~9 years follow-up, while the reverse effect was much weaker. Further, baseline neuroticism, health, and financial satisfaction were longitudinally associated with subsequent grip strength. The results revealed widespread associations between stronger grip strength and increased grey matter volume, especially in subcortical regions and temporal cortices. Moreover, grey matter volume of these regions also correlated with better mental health and considerably mediated their relationship with grip strength. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, using the largest population-scale neuroimaging dataset currently available, our findings provide the most well-powered characterization of interplay between grip strength, mental health, and brain structure, which may facilitate the discovery of possible interventions to mitigate cognitive decline during aging.

Thinking of Me or Thinking of You? Behavioral Correlates of Self vs. Other Centered Worry and Reappraisal in Late-Life.

Psychotherapeutic approaches in late-life anxiety have limited effect on reducing worry severity. The self-referential processing of worry contents (self- vs. other-focused worry) and reappraisal styles (internal vs. external locus of control) are important elements in psychotherapy, but little is known about these processes in late-life. We aimed to characterize severe worry from a self-referential processing perspective. We recruited 104 older adults with various levels of worry and used a personalized task to induce and reappraise worry. We analyzed the association between (1) worry severity/frequency for worry content (self- or other-focused) and (2) for reappraisal style (internal vs. external locus of control) with clinical inventories measuring anxiety, worry, depression, rumination, neuroticism, emotion regulation strategies, perceived stress, and physical illness burden. Higher self-worry severity was associated with higher scores of clinical inventories of worry, depression, perceived stress, and neuroticism, whereas other-worry severity did not show any association. Greater self-worry frequency was associated with higher medical burden. External locus of control in reappraisal statements was associated with lower worry severity in men. Overall, more severe and frequent self-focused worry was associated with a greater psychological and physiological burden. These results are useful in tailoring psychotherapy for older adults with severe worry.