High pathogenic avian influenza A(H5) viruses of clade 2.3.4.4b in Europe-Why trends of virus evolution are more difficult to predict.

Since 2016, A(H5Nx) high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus of clade 2.3.4.4b has become one of the most serious global threats not only to wild and domestic birds, but also to public health. In recent years, important changes in the ecology, epidemiology, and evolution of this virus have been reported, with an unprecedented global diffusion and variety of affected birds and mammalian species. After the two consecutive and devastating epidemic waves in Europe in 2020-2021 and 2021-2022, with the second one recognized as one of the largest epidemics recorded so far, this clade has begun to circulate endemically in European wild bird populations. This study used the complete genomes of 1,956 European HPAI A(H5Nx) viruses to investigate the virus evolution during this varying epidemiological outline. We investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of A(H5Nx) virus diffusion to/from and within Europe during the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 epidemic waves, providing evidence of ongoing changes in transmission dynamics and disease epidemiology. We demonstrated the high genetic diversity of the circulating viruses, which have undergone frequent reassortment events, providing for the first time a complete overview and a proposed nomenclature of the multiple genotypes circulating in Europe in 2020-2022. We described the emergence of a new genotype with gull adapted genes, which offered the virus the opportunity to occupy new ecological niches, driving the disease endemicity in the European wild bird population. The high propensity of the virus for reassortment, its jumps to a progressively wider number of host species, including mammals, and the rapid acquisition of adaptive mutations make the trend of virus evolution and spread difficult to predict in this unfailing evolving scenario.

Creation of a pandemic memory by tracing COVID-19 infections and immunity in Luxembourg (CON-VINCE).

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic swift implementation of research cohorts was key. While many studies focused exclusively on infected individuals, population based cohorts are essential for the follow-up of SARS-CoV-2 impact on public health. Here we present the CON-VINCE cohort, estimate the point and period prevalence of the SARS-CoV-2 infection, reflect on the spread within the Luxembourgish population, examine immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, and ascertain the impact of the pandemic on population psychological wellbeing at a nationwide level. METHODS: A representative sample of the adult Luxembourgish population was enrolled. The cohort was followed-up for twelve months. SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR and serology were conducted at each sampling visit. The surveys included detailed epidemiological, clinical, socio-economic, and psychological data. RESULTS: One thousand eight hundred sixty-five individuals were followed over seven visits (April 2020-June 2021) with the final weighted period prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection of 15%. The participants had similar risks of being infected regardless of their gender, age, employment status and education level. Vaccination increased the chances of IgG-S positivity in infected individuals. Depression, anxiety, loneliness and stress levels increased at a point of study when there were strict containment measures, returning to baseline afterwards. CONCLUSION: The data collected in CON-VINCE study allowed obtaining insights into the infection spread in Luxembourg, immunity build-up and the impact of the pandemic on psychological wellbeing of the population. Moreover, the study holds great translational potential, as samples stored at the biobank, together with self-reported questionnaire information, can be exploited in further research. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial registration number: NCT04379297, 10 April 2020.

Human Seasonal Influenza Viruses in Swine Workers in Lagos, Nigeria: Consequences for Animal and Public Health.

The influenza A virus has been scarcely investigated in pigs in Africa, with rare detection prior to 2009. The spread of A(H1N1)pdm09 changed the epidemiology due to frequent human-to-swine transmission and the emergence of various new reassortants. This study therefore aimed at estimating the level of circulation and characterizing influenza A viruses at the interface between swine workers, who are crucial players in the inter-species transmission of influenza A viruses, and their animals in several farms in Nigeria, a hub for pig production in Africa. This cross-sectional study showed that 24.6% (58/236) of the pig serum samples collected in 2013-2014 had anti-influenza A antibodies in the absence of vaccination programs, but none of the pig swabs (n = 1193) were positive according to RT-qPCR. Viral RNA was detected in 0.9% (2/229) of swine workers sampled at their place of work, and the strains were characterized as A(H1N1)pdm09 and seasonal A(H3N2). Our results highlight that more awareness of swine workers regarding the consequences of reverse zoonosis for animal and public health is warranted. Annual vaccination and the wearing of masks when experiencing influenza-like symptoms would help decrease influenza inter-species transmission, while surveillance should be adequately supported for early detection.

Systematic Review of the Key Factors Influencing the Indoor Airborne Spread of SARS-CoV-2.

The COVID-19 pandemic due to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been plaguing the world since late 2019/early 2020 and has changed the way we function as a society, halting both economic and social activities worldwide. Classrooms, offices, restaurants, public transport, and other enclosed spaces that typically gather large groups of people indoors, and are considered focal points for the spread of the virus. For society to be able to go "back to normal", it is crucial to keep these places open and functioning. An understanding of the transmission modes occurring in these contexts is essential to set up effective infection control strategies. This understanding was made using a systematic review, according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses statement (PRISMA) 2020 guidelines. We analyze the different parameters influencing airborne transmission indoors, the mathematical models proposed to understand it, and discuss how we can act on these parameters. Methods to judge infection risks through the analysis of the indoor air quality are described. Various mitigation measures are listed, and their efficiency, feasibility, and acceptability are ranked by a panel of experts in the field. Thus, effective ventilation procedures controlled by CO2-monitoring, continued mask wearing, and a strategic control of room occupancy, among other measures, are put forth to enable a safe return to these essential places.

Altered infective competence of the human gut microbiome in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Infections with SARS-CoV-2 have a pronounced impact on the gastrointestinal tract and its resident microbiome. Clear differences between severe cases of infection and healthy individuals have been reported, including the loss of commensal taxa. We aimed to understand if microbiome alterations including functional shifts are unique to severe cases or a common effect of COVID-19. We used high-resolution systematic multi-omic analyses to profile the gut microbiome in asymptomatic-to-moderate COVID-19 individuals compared to a control group. RESULTS: We found a striking increase in the overall abundance and expression of both virulence factors and antimicrobial resistance genes in COVID-19. Importantly, these genes are encoded and expressed by commensal taxa from families such as Acidaminococcaceae and Erysipelatoclostridiaceae, which we found to be enriched in COVID-19-positive individuals. We also found an enrichment in the expression of a betaherpesvirus and rotavirus C genes in COVID-19-positive individuals compared to healthy controls. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses identified an altered and increased infective competence of the gut microbiome in COVID-19 patients. Video Abstract.

Hepatitis B virus and other transfusion-transmissible infections in child blood recipients in Lao People's Democratic Republic: a hospital-based study.

INTRODUCTION: Children requiring multiple blood transfusions are at high risk of transfusion-transmissible infections (TTIs). Lao People's Democratic Republic is a low-resource setting where donor blood screening faces challenges. This study aimed to determine the burden of TTIs in children in Vientiane Capital. METHODS: 300 children with transfusion history and 300 controls were recruited. In addition, 49 newly diagnosed transfusion recipients were followed for up to 12 months. Serum was tested for hepatitis B surface antigen and IgG antibodies against parvovirus B19, hepatitis B, C and E viruses. RESULTS: The patients had a similar prevalence of anti-hepatitis B core antibodies (56; 18.7%) and hepatitis B surface antigen (8; 2.7%) as the controls (58; 19.3% and 9; 3.0%, respectively). However, there was a higher prevalence of an antibody profile suggestive of hepatitis B vaccination (anti-hepatitis B surface antibody positive/anti-hepatitis B core antibody negative) in the transfused group (140/299; 46.8%) than in controls (77/300; 25.7%, p<0.01). All other markers were similar in the patients and controls or higher in the controls: anti-hepatitis C virus (2.7% and 3.3%, p=0.6), anti-hepatitis E virus (7.5% and 12.7%, p=0.006) and anti-parvovirus B19 (2.4% and 8.5%, p=0.001). The longitudinal cohort did not show an increase in any marker over time. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest no significant role of TTIs in Lao children. The higher prevalence of the hepatitis B vaccination profile in transfusion recipients showed that recommendations to vaccinate before commencing transfusions is at least partially implemented, although there is room for improvement.

Hepatitis E virus in Cuba: A cross-sectional serological and virological study in pigs and people occupationally exposed to pigs.

Surveillance of hepatitis E virus (HEV) in risk groups is an important strategy to monitor its circulation pattern and to timely detect changes thereof. The aims of this cross-sectional study were to estimate the prevalence of HEV infections in pigs and humans from different regions of the country, to identify risk factors for increasing anti-HEV IgG prevalence and to characterize HEV strains. The presence of anti-HEV antibodies was assessed by commercial ELISA in serum samples from the general population, farm and slaughterhouse employees, as well as pigs sampled in the three regions of Cuba from February to September 2016. Overall, individuals with occupational exposure to swine or swine products (70/248, 28.2%) were 4 times more likely to be seropositive compared to the general population (25/285, 8.7%; OR: 4.18; p < .001). Within the risk group, risk factors included age, number of years working in a professional activity with direct exposure to swine, geographic region and distance between residence and closest professional swine setting, while wearing gloves had a protective effect. Prevalence of total anti-HEV antibodies in swine was 88.2% (165/187) and HEV RNA was detected by real-time RT-PCR in 9.2% (16/173) swine stools. All HEV strains sequenced clustered within genotype 3. Some strains clearly belonged to subtype 3a, while another group of strains was related with subtypes 3b and 3 k but partial HEV sequences did not allow unequivocal subtype assignment. These findings suggest that the high HEV exposure in Cuban individuals with swine-related occupations could be due to enzootic HEV in certain regions, direct contact with infectious animals or their products as well as environmental contamination.

Evolutionary and temporal dynamics of emerging influenza D virus in Europe (2009-22).

Influenza D virus (IDV) is an emerging influenza virus that was isolated for the first time in 2011 in the USA from swine with respiratory illness. Since then, IDV has been detected worldwide in different animal species, and it was also reported in humans. Molecular epidemiological studies revealed the circulation of two major clades, named D/OK and D/660. Additional divergent clades have been described but have been limited to specific geographic areas (i.e. Japan and California). In Europe, IDV was detected for the first time in France in 2012 and subsequently also in Italy, Luxembourg, Ireland, the UK, Switzerland, and Denmark. To understand the time of introduction and the evolutionary dynamics of IDV on the continent, molecular screening of bovine and swine clinical samples was carried out in different European countries, and phylogenetic analyses were performed on all available and newly generated sequences. Until recently, D/OK was the only clade detected in this area. Starting from 2019, an increase in D/660 clade detections was observed, accompanied by an increase in the overall viral genetic diversity and genetic reassortments. The time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of all existing IDV sequences was estimated as 1995-16 years before its discovery, indicating that the virus could have started its global spread in this time frame. Despite the D/OK and D/660 clades having a similar mean tMRCA (2007), the mean tMRCA for European D/OK sequences was estimated as January 2013 compared to July 2014 for European D/660 sequences. This indicated that the two clades were likely introduced on the European continent at different time points, as confirmed by virological screening findings. The mean nucleotide substitution rate of the hemagglutinin-esterase-fusion (HEF) glycoprotein segment was estimated as 1.403 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year, which is significantly higher than the one of the HEF of human influenza C virus (P < 0.0001). IDV genetic drift, the introduction of new clades on the continent, and multiple reassortment patterns shape the increasing viral diversity observed in the last years. Its elevated substitution rate, diffusion in various animal species, and the growing evidence pointing towards zoonotic potential justify continuous surveillance of this emerging influenza virus.

Pre-Omicron Vaccine Breakthrough Infection Induces Superior Cross-Neutralization against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 Compared to Infection Alone.

SARS-CoV-2 variants raise concern because of their high transmissibility and their ability to evade neutralizing antibodies elicited by prior infection or by vaccination. Here, we compared the neutralizing abilities of sera from 70 unvaccinated COVID-19 patients infected before the emergence of variants of concern (VOCs) and of 16 vaccine breakthrough infection (BTI) cases infected with Gamma or Delta against the ancestral B.1 strain, the Gamma, Delta and Omicron BA.1 VOCs using live virus. We further determined antibody levels against the Nucleocapsid (N) and full Spike proteins, the receptor-binding domain (RBD) and the N-terminal domain (NTD) of the Spike protein. Convalescent sera featured considerable variability in the neutralization of B.1 and in the cross-neutralization of different strains. Their neutralizing capacity moderately correlated with antibody levels against the Spike protein and the RBD. All but one convalescent serum failed to neutralize Omicron BA.1. Overall, convalescent sera from patients with moderate disease had higher antibody levels and displayed a higher neutralizing ability against all strains than patients with mild or severe forms of the disease. The sera from BTI cases fell into one of two categories: half the sera had a high neutralizing activity against the ancestral B.1 strain as well as against the infecting strain, while the other half had no or a very low neutralizing activity against all strains. Although antibody levels against the spike protein and the RBD were lower in BTI sera than in unvaccinated convalescent sera, most neutralizing sera also retained partial neutralizing activity against Omicron BA.1, suggestive of a better cross-neutralization and higher affinity of vaccine-elicited antibodies over virus-induced antibodies. Accordingly, the IC50: antibody level ratios were comparable for BTI and convalescent sera, but remained lower in the neutralizing convalescent sera from patients with moderate disease than in BTI sera. The neutralizing activity of BTI sera was strongly correlated with antibodies against the Spike protein and the RBD. Together, these findings highlight qualitative differences in antibody responses elicited by infection in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. They further indicate that breakthrough infection with a pre-Omicron variant boosts immunity and induces cross-neutralizing antibodies against different strains, including Omicron BA.1.

Combinatorial analysis reveals highly coordinated early-stage immune reactions that predict later antiviral immunity in mild COVID-19 patients.

While immunopathology has been widely studied in patients with severe COVID-19, immune responses in non-hospitalized patients have remained largely elusive. We systematically analyze 484 peripheral cellular or soluble immune features in a longitudinal cohort of 63 mild and 15 hospitalized patients versus 14 asymptomatic and 26 household controls. We observe a transient increase of IP10/CXCL10 and interferon-ß levels, coordinated responses of dominant SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4 and fewer CD8 T cells, and various antigen-presenting and antibody-secreting cells in mild patients within 3 days of PCR diagnosis. The frequency of key innate immune cells and their functional marker expression are impaired in hospitalized patients at day 1 of inclusion. T cell and dendritic cell responses at day 1 are highly predictive for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody responses after 3 weeks in mild but not hospitalized patients. Our systematic analysis reveals a combinatorial picture and trajectory of various arms of the highly coordinated early-stage immune responses in mild COVID-19 patients.

Usutu Virus Africa 3 Lineage, Luxembourg, 2020.

We detected Usutu virus in a dead Eurasian blackbird (Turdus merula) in Luxembourg in September 2020. The strain clustered within the Africa 3.1 lineage identified in Western Europe since 2016. Our results suggest maintenance of the virus in Europe despite little reporting during 2019-2020, rather than a new introduction.

Prevalence of hepatitis E virus antibodies in cattle in Burkina Faso associated with swine mixed farming.

BACKGROUND: Endemic circulation of human-specific hepatitis E virus (HEV) genotypes 1 and 2 may occult the importance of sporadic zoonotic HEV transmissions in Africa. Increasing numbers of studies reporting anti-HEV antibodies in cattle and the discovery of infectious HEV in cow milk has raised public health concern, but cattle exposure has seldom been investigated in Africa. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at investigating the role of cows in the epidemiology of HEV in Burkina Faso and farmers habits in terms of dairy product consumption as a prerequisite to estimate the risk of transmission to humans. METHODS: Sera from 475 cattle and 192 pigs were screened for the presence of anti-HEV antibodies while HEV RNA in swine stools was detected by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Data on mixed farming, dairy product consumption and selling habits were gathered through questionnaires. RESULTS: The overall seroprevalence in cattle was 5.1% and herd seroprevalence reached 32.4% (11/34). Herd seropositivity was not associated with husbandry practice or presence of rabbits on the farms. However, herd seropositivity was associated with on-site presence of pigs, 80.7% of which had anti-HEV antibodies. The majority of farmers reported to preferentially consume raw milk based dairy products. CONCLUSIONS: Concomitant presence of pigs on cattle farms constitutes a risk factor for HEV exposure of cattle. However, the risk of HEV infections associated with raw cow dairy product consumption is currently considered as low.

Adverse Life Trajectories Are a Risk Factor for SARS-CoV-2 IgA Seropositivity.

Asymptomatic individuals, called "silent spreaders" spread SARS-CoV-2 efficiently and have complicated control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. As seen in previous influenza pandemics, socioeconomic and life-trajectory factors are important in disease progression and outcome. The demographics of the asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers are unknown. We used the CON-VINCE cohort of healthy, asymptomatic, and oligosymptomatic individuals that is statistically representative of the overall population of Luxembourg for age, gender, and residency to characterise this population. Gender (male), not smoking, and exposure to early-life or adult traumatic experiences increased the risk of IgA seropositivity, and the risk associated with early-life exposure was a dose-dependent metric, while some other known comorbidities of active COVID-19 do not impact it. As prior exposure to adversity is associated with negative psychobiological reactions to external stressors, we recorded psychological wellbeing during the study period. Exposure to traumatic events or concurrent autoimmune or rheumatic disease were associated with a worse evolution of anxiety and depressive symptoms throughout the lockdown period. The unique demographic profile of the "silent spreaders" highlights the role that the early-life period plays in determining our lifelong health trajectory and provides evidence that the developmental origins of health and disease is applicable to infectious diseases.

Epidemiology and genetic characterization of respiratory syncytial virus in children with acute respiratory infections: Findings from the influenza sentinel surveillance network in Central African Republic, 2015 to 2018.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is one of the main viral pathogens causing acute respiratory infections in children under 5 years of age but has seldom been studied in Central African Republic (CAF). Taking advantage of the national influenza surveillance network in CAF, this study aimed at providing the first insights into RSV prevalence and seasonality over 4 years of surveillance and the clinical manifestations of RSV in this population in CAF. METHODS: A total of 3903 children under 5 years matching the influenza-like illness (ILI, 68.5%) or severe acute respiratory infection (SARI, 31.5%) case definitions were recruited from January 2015 to December 2018. The presence of RSV viral RNA in nasopharyngeal samples was assessed by RT-PCR, followed by RSV-A and RSV-B typing and Sanger sequencing on a subset of samples. Phylogenetic analyses were carried on partial G protein sequences. Associations between RSV and demographic or clinical manifestations were investigated by statistical analyses. RESULTS: RSV prevalence was significantly higher in infants <6 months (13.4%), in hospitalized children (13.3% vs 5.5%) and in male patients (9.5% vs 6.4%). An overall prevalence of RSV of 8.0% in the period of 2015 to 2018 was shown, with significant annual (6.4%-10.6%) and seasonal (12.7% in rainy season vs 3.0% in dry season) fluctuations. While RSV seasons in 2015, 2016, and 2018 were relatively similar, 2017 showed deviations from the overall patterns with significantly higher RSV circulation and an outbreak peak 3 to 5 months earlier. Concomitant circulation of RSV-A and RSV-B with an alternating predominance of RSV-A and RSV-B strains and temporal RSV-A genotype replacement from NA1 to ON1 was observed. CONCLUSION: This study represents the first in-depth epidemiological analysis of RSV in CAF and provides first insights into RSV genetic diversity and seasonality in the country.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk from asymptomatic carriers: Results from a mass screening programme in Luxembourg.

BACKGROUND: To accompany the lifting of COVID-19 lockdown measures, Luxembourg implemented a mass screening (MS) programme. The first phase coincided with an early summer epidemic wave in 2020. METHODS: rRT-PCR-based screening for SARS-CoV-2 was performed by pooling of samples. The infrastructure allowed the testing of the entire resident and cross-border worker populations. The strategy relied on social connectivity within different activity sectors. Invitation frequencies were tactically increased in sectors and regions with higher prevalence. The results were analysed alongside contact tracing data. FINDINGS: The voluntary programme covered 49% of the resident and 22% of the cross-border worker populations. It identified 850 index cases with an additional 249 cases from contact tracing. Over-representation was observed in the services, hospitality and construction sectors alongside regional differences. Asymptomatic cases had a significant but lower secondary attack rate when compared to symptomatic individuals. Based on simulations using an agent-based SEIR model, the total number of expected cases would have been 42·9% (90% CI [-0·3, 96·7]) higher without MS. Mandatory participation would have resulted in a further difference of 39·7% [19·6, 59·2]. INTERPRETATION: Strategic and tactical MS allows the suppression of epidemic dynamics. Asymptomatic carriers represent a significant risk for transmission. Containment of future outbreaks will depend on early testing in sectors and regions. Higher participation rates must be assured through targeted incentivisation and recurrent invitation. FUNDING: This project was funded by the Luxembourg Ministries of Higher Education and Research, and Health.

Epidemiology of acute respiratory viral infections in children in Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic.

Respiratory infections are one of the most frequent reasons for medical consultations in children. In low resource settings such as in Lao People's Democratic Republic, knowledge gaps and the dearth of laboratory capacity to support differential diagnosis may contribute to antibiotic overuse. We studied the etiology, temporal trends, and genetic diversity of viral respiratory infections in children to provide evidence for prevention and treatment guidelines. From September 2014 to October 2015, throat swabs and nasopharyngeal aspirates from 445 children under 10 years old with symptoms of acute respiratory infection were collected at the Children Hospital in Vientiane. Rapid antigen tests were performed for influenza A and B and respiratory syncytial virus. Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reactions (RT-PCRs) were performed to detect 16 viruses. Influenza infections were detected with a higher sensitivity using PCR than with the rapid antigen test. By RT-PCR screening, at least one pathogen could be identified for 71.7% of cases. Human rhinoviruses were most frequently detected (29.9%), followed by influenza A and B viruses combined (15.9%). We identify and discuss the seasonality of some of the infections. Altogether these data provide a detailed characterization of respiratory pathogens in Lao children and we provide recommendations for vaccination and further studies.

Emerging Influenza D virus infection in European livestock as determined in serology studies: Are we underestimating its spread over the continent?

Influenza D virus (IDV) is a novel orthomyxovirus that was first isolated in 2011 in the United States from a swine exhibiting influenza-like disease. To date, its detection is extended to all continents and in a broad host range: IDV is circulating in cattle, swine, feral swine, camelids, small ruminants and horses. Evidence also suggests a possible species jump to humans, underlining the issue of zoonotic potential. In Europe, serological investigations in cattle have partially allowed the understanding of the virus diffusion in different countries such as Italy, France, Luxembourg and Ireland. The infection is widespread in cattle but limited in other investigated species, consolidating the assumption of cattle as IDV primary host. We hypothesize that commercial livestock trade could play a role in the observed differences in IDV seroprevalence among these areas. Indeed, the overall level of exposure in cattle and swine in destination countries (e.g. Italy) is higher than in origin countries (e.g. France), leading to the hypothesis of a viral shedding following the transportation of young cattle abroad and thus contributing to larger diffusion at countries of destination. IDV large geographic circulation in cattle from Northern to more Southern European countries also supports the hypothesis of a viral spread through livestock trade. This review summarizes available data on IDV seroprevalence in Europe collected so far and integrates unpublished data from IDV European surveillance framework of the last decade. In addition, the possible role of livestock trade and biosecurity measures in this pathogen's spread is discussed.

First expert elicitation of knowledge on drivers of emergence of influenza D in Europe.

The influenza D virus (IDV) was first identified and characterized in 2011. Considering the virus' zoonotic potential, its genome nature (segmented RNA virus), its worldwide circulation in livestock and its role in bovine respiratory disease, an increased interest is given to IDV. However, few data are available on drivers of emergence of IDV. We first listed fifty possible drivers of emergence of IDV in ruminants and swine. As recently carried out for COVID-19 in pets (Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 2020), a scoring system was developed per driver and scientific experts (N = 28) were elicited to (a) allocate a score to each driver, (b) weight the drivers' scores within each domain and (c) weight the different domains among themselves. An overall weighted score was calculated per driver, and drivers were ranked in decreasing order. Drivers with comparable likelihoods to play a role in the emergence of IDV in ruminants and swine in Europe were grouped using a regression tree analysis. Finally, the robustness of the expert elicitation was verified. Eight drivers were ranked with the highest probability to play a key role in the emergence of IDV: current species specificity of the causing agent of the disease; influence of (il)legal movements of live animals (ruminants, swine) from neighbouring/European Union member states and from third countries for the disease to (re-)emerge in a given country; detection of emergence; current knowledge of the pathogen; vaccine availability; animal density; and transport vehicles of live animals. As there is still limited scientific knowledge on the topic, expert elicitation of knowledge and multi-criteria decision analysis, in addition to clustering and sensitivity analyses, are very important to prioritize future studies, starting from the top eight drivers. The present methodology could be applied to other emerging animal diseases.

Molecular and virological characterization of the first poultry outbreaks of Genotype VII.2 velogenic avian orthoavulavirus type 1 (NDV) in North-West Europe, BeNeLux, 2018.

After two decades free of Newcastle disease, Belgium encountered a velogenic avian orthoavulavirus type 1 epizootic in 2018. In Belgium, 20 cases were diagnosed, of which 15 occurred in hobby flocks, 2 in professional poultry flocks and 3 in poultry retailers. The disease also disseminated from Belgium towards the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg by trade. Independently, the virus was detected once in the Netherlands, almost simultaneously to the first Belgian detection. As such Newcastle disease emerged in the entire BeNeLux region. Both the polybasic sequence of the fusion gene cleavage site and the intracerebral pathotyping assay demonstrated the high pathogenicity of the strain. This paper represents the first notification of this specific VII.2 subgenotype in the North-West of Europe. Time-calibrated full genome phylogenetic analysis indicated the silent or unreported circulation of the virus prior to the emergence of three genetic clusters in the BeNeLux region without clear geographical or other epidemiological correlation. The Dutch strain appeared as an outgroup to the Belgian and Luxembourgian strains in the time-correlated genetic analysis and no epidemiological link could be identified between the Belgian and Dutch outbreaks. In contrast, both genetic and epidemiological outbreak investigation data linked the G.D. Luxembourg case to the Belgian outbreak. The genetic links between Belgian viruses from retailers and hobby flocks only partially correlated with epidemiological data. Two independent introductions into the professional poultry sector were identified, although their origin could not be determined. Animal experiments using 6-week- old specific pathogen-free chickens indicated a systemic infection and efficient transmission of the virus. The implementation of re-vaccination in the professional sector, affected hobby and retailers, as well as the restriction on assembly and increased biosecurity measures, possibly limited the epizootic and resulted in the disappearance of the virus. These findings emphasize the constant need for awareness and monitoring of notifiable viruses in the field.

High seroprevalence of Foot and Mouth Disease in Laos: Call for nationwide vaccination campaigns and disease surveillance.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus remains enzootic in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) due to insufficient control measures, including low vaccination coverage. We assessed virus epidemiology and evaluated knowledge, attitude and practice of Lao farmers and animal health stakeholders towards FMD to support politics in devising evidence-based control measures. Sera were collected from 972 domestic ruminants in three provinces of Lao PDR: Vientiane Capital, Vientiane and Xiengkhouang provinces. Seroprevalence of antibodies directed against non-structural proteins of FMD virus was assessed using a commercial ELISA. Positive sera were further characterized by detecting antibodies directed against the structural proteins of FMD serotypes O, A and Asia 1. Information about farm management, biosecurity practices, livestock trade, and past FMD outbreaks was obtained. Overall 35% (340/972) of the ruminants had antibodies against FMD virus with a similar seroprevalence in each province. Seroprevalence depended significantly on the ruminant species (p < .001): 61% of buffaloes, but only 41% of cattle and 15% of goats were seropositive. While antibodies against FMD serotype Asia 1 were absent, 87% (297/340) of the seropositive animals had antibodies against FMD serotype O and 32% (110/340) against FMD serotype A. Many seropositive animals (31%) had antibodies against both serotypes O and A. The majority of the farmers could name the symptoms of FMD and the susceptible animal species. Although many had likely observed FMD outbreaks in their herd and were aware of FMD vaccines, only few vaccinated their animals. This study confirms that FMD remains enzootic in at least three provinces of Lao PDR where vaccination coverage is low. It also shows the relevance of nationwide active and passive disease surveillance, as well as of vaccination campaigns using bivalent FMD vaccines and targeting all susceptible animal species.