The future of algal blooms in lakes globally is in our hands.

Lakes are fundamental to society and nature, yet they are currently exposed to excessive nutrients and climate change, resulting in algal blooms. In the future, this may change, but how and where still needs more scientific attention. Here, we explore future trends in algal blooms in lakes globally for >3500 'representative lakes' for the year 2050, considering the attribution of both nutrient and climate factors. We soft-coupled a process-based lake ecosystem model (PCLake+) with a watershed nutrient model (MARINA-Multi) to assess trends in algal blooms in terms of the Trophic State Index for chlorophyll-a (TSI-Chla). Globally between 2010 and 2050, we show a rising trend in algal blooms under fossil-fuelled development (TSI-Chla increase in 91 % of lakes) and a declining trend under sustainable development (TSI-Chla decrease in 63 % of lakes). These changes are significantly attributed to nutrients. While not always significant, climate change attributions point to being unfavourable for lakes in 2050, exacerbating lake water quality. Our study stresses prioritising responsible nutrient and climate management on policy agendas. This implies that the future of algal blooms in lakes is in our hands.

The impact of emissions controls on atmospheric nitrogen inputs to Chinese river basins highlights the urgency of ammonia abatement.

Excessive nitrogen (N) deposition affects aquatic ecosystems worldwide, but effectiveness of emissions controls and their impact on water pollution remains uncertain. In this modeling study, we assess historical and future N deposition trends in Chinese river basins and their contributions to water pollution via direct and indirect N deposition (the latter referring to transport of N to water from N deposited on land). The control of acid gas emissions (i.e., nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide) has had limited effectiveness in reducing total N deposition, with notable contributions from agricultural reduced N deposition. Despite increasing controls on acid gas emissions between 2011 and 2019, N inputs to rivers increased by 3%, primarily through indirect deposition. Simultaneously controlling acid gas and ammonia emissions could reduce N deposition and water inputs by 56 and 47%, respectively, by 2050 compared to 2019. Our findings underscore the importance of agricultural ammonia mitigation in protecting water bodies.

Water quality management could halve future water scarcity cost-effectively in the Pearl River Basin.

Reducing water scarcity requires both mitigation of the increasing water pollution and adaptation to the changing availability and demand of water resources under global change. However, state-of-the-art water scarcity modeling efforts often ignore water quality and associated biogeochemical processes in the design of water scarcity reduction measures. Here, we identify cost-effective options for reducing future water scarcity by accounting for water quantity and quality in the highly water stressed and polluted Pearl River Basin in China under various socio-economic and climatic change scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our modeling approach integrates a nutrient model (MARINA-Nutrients) with a cost-optimization procedure, considering biogeochemistry and human activities on land in a spatially explicit way. Results indicate that future water scarcity is expected to increase by a factor of four in most parts of the Pearl River Basin by 2050 under the RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario. Results also show that water quality management options could half future water scarcity in a cost-effective way. Our analysis could serve as an example of water scarcity assessment for other highly water stressed and polluted river basins around the world and inform the design of cost-effective measures to reduce water scarcity.

An optimized crop-livestock system can achieve a safe and just planetary boundary for phosphorus at the sub-basin level in China.

The contribution of crop and livestock production to the exceedance of the planetary boundary for phosphorus (P) in China is still unclear, despite the country's well-known issues with P fertilizer overuse and P-related water pollution. Using coupled models at sub-basin scales we estimate that livestock production increased the consumption of P fertilizer fivefold and exacerbated P losses twofold from 1980 to 2017. At present, China's crop-livestock system is responsible for exceeding what is considered a 'just' threshold for fertilizer P use by 30% (ranging from 17% to 68%) and a 'safe' water quality threshold by 45% (ranging from 31% to 74%) in 25 sub-basins in China. Improving the crop-livestock system will keep all sub-basins within safe water quality and just multigenerational limits for P in 2050.

A global assessment of glyphosate and AMPA inputs into rivers: Over half of the pollutants are from corn and soybean production.

Glyphosate is widely used in agriculture for weed control; however, it may pollute water systems with its by-product, aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA). Therefore, a better understanding of the flows of glyphosate and AMPA from soils into rivers is required. We developed the spatially explicit MARINA-Pesticides model to estimate the annual inputs of glyphosate and AMPA into rivers, considering 10 crops in 10,226 sub-basins globally for 2020. Our model results show that, globally, 880 tonnes of glyphosate and 4,090 tonnes of AMPA entered rivers. This implies that 82 % of the river inputs were from AMPA, with glyphosate accounting for the remainder. Over half of AMPA and glyphosate in rivers globally originated from corn and soybean production; however, there were differences among sub-basins. Asian sub-basins accounted for over half of glyphosate in rivers globally, with the contribution from corn production being dominant. South American sub-basins accounted for approximately two-thirds of AMPA in rivers globally, originating largely from soybean production. Our findings constitute a reference for implementing and supporting effective control strategies to achieve Sustainable Development Goals 2 and 6 (food production and clean water, respectively) simultaneously in the future.

Keeping Nitrogen Use in China within the Planetary Boundary Using a Spatially Explicit Approach.

Nitrogen (N) supports food production, but its excess causes water pollution. We lack an understanding of the boundary of N for water quality while considering complex relationships between N inputs and in-stream N concentrations. Our knowledge is limited to regional reduction targets to secure food production. Here, we aim to derive a spatially explicit boundary of N inputs to rivers for surface water quality using a bottom-up approach and to explore ways to meet the derived N boundary while considering the associated impacts on both surface water quality and food production in China. We modified a multiscale nutrient modeling system simulating around 6.5 Tg of N inputs to rivers that are allowed for whole of China in 2012. Maximum allowed N inputs to rivers are higher for intensive food production regions and lower for highly urbanized regions. When fertilizer and manure use is reduced, 45-76% of the streams could meet the N water quality threshold under different scenarios. A comparison of "water quality first" and "food production first" scenarios indicates that trade-offs between water quality and food production exist in 2-8% of the streams, which may put 7-28% of crop production at stake. Our insights could support region-specific policies for improving water quality.

Large reductions in nutrient losses needed to avoid future coastal eutrophication across Europe.

Rapid technological development in agriculture and fast urbanization have increased nutrient losses in Europe. High nutrient export to seas causes coastal eutrophication and harmful algal blooms. This study aims to assess the river exports of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), and identify required reductions to avoid coastal eutrophication in Europe under global change. We modelled nutrient export by 594 rivers in 2050 for a baseline scenario using the new MARINA-Nutrients model for Europe. Nutrient export to European seas is expected to increase by 13-28% under global change. Manure and fertilizers together contribute to river export of N by 35% in 2050. Sewage systems are responsible for 70% of future P export by rivers. By 2050, the top ten polluted rivers for N and P host 42% of the European population. Avoiding future coastal eutrophication requires over 47% less N and up to 77% less P exports by these polluted rivers.

Increasing cascade dams in the upstream area reduce nutrient inputs to the Three Gorges Reservoir in China.

The upstream cascade dams play an essential role in the nutrient cycle in the Yangtze. However, there is little quantitative information on the effects of upstream damming on nutrient retention in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China. Here, we aim to assess the impact of increasing cascade dams in the upstream area of the Yangtze on Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen and Phosphorus (DIN and DIP) inputs to the TGR and their retention in the TGR and to draw lessons for other large reservoirs. We implemented the Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs (MARINA-Nutrients China-2.0 model). We ran the model with the baseline scenario in which river damming was at the level of 2009 (low) and alternative scenarios with increased damming. Our scenarios differed in nutrient management. Our results indicated that total water storage capacity increased by 98 % in the Yangtze upstream from 2009 to 2022, with 17 new large river dams (>0.5 km3) constructed upstream of the Yangtze. As a result of these new dams, the total DIN inputs to the TGR decreased by 15 % (from 768 Gg year-1 to 651 Gg year-1) and DIP inputs decreased by 25 % (from 70 Gg year-1 to 53 Gg year-1). Meanwhile, the molar DIN:DIP ratio in inputs to the TGR increased by 13 % between 2009 and 2022. In the future, DIN and DIP inputs to the TGR are projected to decrease further, while the molar DIN:DIP ratio will increase. The Upper Stem contributed 39 %-50 % of DIN inputs and 63 %-84 % of DIP inputs to the TGR in the past and future. Our results deepen our knowledge of nutrient loadings in mainstream dams caused by increasing cascade dams. More research is needed to understand better the impact of increased nutrient ratios due to dam construction.

A triple increase in global river basins with water scarcity due to future pollution.

Water security is at stake today. While climate changes influence water availability, urbanization and agricultural activities have led to increasing water demand as well as pollution, limiting safe water use. We conducted a global assessment of future clean-water scarcity for 2050s by adding the water pollution aspect to the classical water quantity-induced scarcity assessments. This was done for >10,000 sub-basins focusing on nitrogen pollution in rivers by integrating land-system, hydrological and water quality models. We found that water pollution aggravates water scarcity in >2000 sub-basins worldwide. The number of sub-basins with water scarcity triples due to future nitrogen pollution worldwide. In 2010, 984 sub-basins are classified as water scarce when considering only quantity-induced scarcity, while 2517 sub-basins are affected by quantity & quality-induced scarcity. This number even increases to 3061 sub-basins in the worst case scenario in 2050. This aggravation means an extra 40 million km2 of basin area and 3 billion more people that may potentially face water scarcity in 2050. Our results stress the urgent need to address water quality in future water management policies for the Sustainable Development Goals.

Setting goals for agricultural nitrogen emission reduction to ensure safe air and groundwater quality: A case study of Quzhou, the North China Plain.

Setting nitrogen (N) emission targets for agricultural systems is crucial to prevent to air and groundwater pollution, yet such targets are rarely defined at the county level. In this study, we employed a forecasting-and-back casting approach to establish human health-based nitrogen targets for air and groundwater quality in Quzhou county, located in the North China Plain. By adopting the World Health Organization (WHO) phase I standard for PM2.5 concentration (35 µg m-3) and a standard of 11.3 mg NO3--N L-1 for nitrate in drinking water, we found that ammonia (NH3) emissions from the entire county must be reduced by at least 3.2 kilotons year-1 in 2050 to meet the WHO's PM2.5 phase I standard. Additionally, controlling other pollutants such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) is necessary, with required reductions ranging from 16% to 64% during 2017-2050. Furthermore, to meet the groundwater quality standard, nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N) leaching to groundwater should not exceed 0.8 kilotons year-1 by 2050. Achieving this target would require a 50% reduction in NH3 emissions and a 21% reduction in NO3--N leaching from agriculture in Quzhou in 2050 compared to their respective levels in 2017 (5.0 and 2.1 kilotons, respectively). Our developed method and the resulting N emission targets can support the development of environmentally-friendly agriculture by facilitating the design of control strategies to minimize agricultural N losses.

Causes of coastal waters pollution with nutrients, chemicals and plastics worldwide.

Worldwide, coastal waters contain pollutants such as nutrients, plastics, and chemicals. Rivers export those pollutants, but their sources are not well studied. Our study aims to quantify river exports of nutrients, chemicals, and plastics to coastal waters by source and sub-basin worldwide. We developed a new MARINA-Multi model for 10,226 sub-basins. The global modelled river export to seas is approximately 40,000 kton of nitrogen, 1,800 kton of phosphorous, 45 kton of microplastics, 490 kton of macroplastics, 400 ton of triclosan and 220 ton of diclofenac. Around three-quarters of these pollutants are transported to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Diffuse sources contribute by 95-100 % to nitrogen (agriculture) and macroplastics (mismanaged waste) in seas. Point sources (sewage) contribute by 40-95 % to phosphorus and microplastics in seas. Almost 45 % of global sub-basin areas are multi-pollutant hotspots hosting 89 % of the global population. Our findings could support strategies for reducing multiple pollutants in seas.

The Plastic Age: River Pollution in China from Crop Production and Urbanization.

Many rivers are polluted with macro (>5 mm)- and microplastics (<5 mm). We assess plastic pollution in rivers from crop production and urbanization in 395 Chinese sub-basins. We develop and evaluate an integrated model (MARINA-Plastics model, China-1.0) that considers plastics in crop production (plastic films from mulching and greenhouses, diffuse sources), sewage systems (point sources), and mismanaged solid waste (diffuse source). Model results indicated that 716 kton of plastics entered Chinese rivers in 2015. Macroplastics in rivers account for 85% of the total amount of plastics (in mass). Around 71% of this total plastic is from about one-fifth of the basin area. These sub-basins are located in central and eastern China, and they are densely populated with intensive agricultural activities. Agricultural plastic films contribute 20% to plastics in Chinese rivers. Moreover, 65% of plastics are from mismanaged waste in urban and rural areas. Sewage is responsible for the majority of microplastics in rivers. Our study could support the design of plastic pollution control policies and thus contribute to green development in China and elsewhere.

River export of macro- and microplastics to seas by sources worldwide.

Seas are polluted with macro- (>5 mm) and microplastics (<5 mm). However, few studies account for both types when modeling water quality, thus limiting our understanding of the origin (e.g., basins) and sources of plastics. In this work, we model riverine macro- and microplastic exports to seas to identify their main sources in over ten thousand basins. We estimate that rivers export approximately 0.5 million tons of plastics per year worldwide. Microplastics are dominant in almost 40% of the basins in Europe, North America and Oceania, because of sewage effluents. Approximately 80% of the global population live in river basins where macroplastics are dominant because of mismanaged solid waste. These basins include many African and Asian rivers. In 10% of the basins, macro- and microplastics in seas (as mass) are equally important because of high sewage effluents and mismanaged solid waste production. Our results could be useful to prioritize reduction policies for plastics.

Sources of nitrogen in reservoirs of the Haihe basin (China) 2012-2017.

Nitrogen (N) is essential for agricultural production. However, too much N can pollute waters. The Chinese government published several policies to reduce N losses from agricultural production to waters since 2015, which may influence river export of N to reservoirs and lakes and their pollution sources. This study aimed to quantify the trends of river export of N to five reservoirs in the Haihe basin and analyze the main sources of this N pollution from 2012 to 2017. This was done by upscaling the MARINA-Lakes (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to lAkes) model to the Haihe basin, including 22 sub-basins. From 2012 to 2017, river export of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) to the Haihe reservoirs decreased by 11-51%, associated with a decreased contribution of point sources and an increased contribution of diffuse sources for the whole study area Sub-basins draining into Reservoir Pan-Da contributed over one-third to the total TDN export by rivers in 2012 and 2017. The share of diffuse sources in river export of TDN to the Guanting reservoir reached 63% in 2017. Among the TDN diffuse sources, the contribution of animal manure (a diffuse source) to river export of diffuse TDN increased to 28%, 25%, and 23% for the sub-basins of Reservoir Miyun, Pan-da, and Guanting from 2012 to 2017, respectively. Among the TDN point sources, direct manure discharges were the main contributors to the river export of point TDN to the Haihe reservoirs in 2012. By 2017, direct discharges of untreated human waste became another important point source, especially for the Lake Baiyangdian and Reservoir Gang-Huang. This study concludes the need for specific agricultural N management options for different reservoirs of the Haihe basin.

The future of the Black Sea: More pollution in over half of the rivers.

The population in the Black Sea region is expected to decline in the future. However, a better understanding of how river pollution is affected by declining trends in population and increasing trends in economic developments and urbanization is needed. This study aims to quantify future trends in point-source emissions of nutrients, microplastics, Cryptosporidium, and triclosan to 107 rivers draining into the Black Sea. We apply a multi-pollutant model for 2010, 2050, and 2100. In the future, over half of the rivers will be more polluted than in 2010. The population in 74 sub-basins may drop by over 25% in our economic scenario with poor wastewater treatment. Over two-thirds of the people will live in cities and the economy may grow 9-fold in the region. Advanced wastewater treatment could minimize trade-offs between economy and pollution: our Sustainability scenario projects a 68-98% decline in point-source pollution by 2100. Making this future reality will require coordinated international efforts.

Nitrogen in the Yangtze River Basin: Pollution Reduction through Coupling Crop and Livestock Production.

Livestock production poses a threat to water quality worldwide. A better understanding of the contribution of individual livestock species to nitrogen (N) pollution in rivers is essential to improve water quality. This paper aims to quantify inputs of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to the Yangtze River from different livestock species at multiple scales and explore ways for reducing these inputs through coupling crop and livestock production. We extended the previously developed model MARINA (Model to Assess River Input of Nutrient to seAs) with the NUFER (Nutrient flows in Food chains, Environment, and Resource use) approach for livestock. Results show that DIN inputs to the Yangtze River vary across basins, sub-basins, and 0.5° grids, as well as across livestock species. In 2012, livestock production resulted in 2000 Gg of DIN inputs to the Yangtze River. Pig production was responsible for 55-85% of manure-related DIN inputs. Rivers in the downstream sub-basin received higher manure-related DIN inputs than rivers in the other sub-basins. Around 20% of the Yangtze basin is considered as a manure-related hotspot of river pollution. Recycling manure on cropland can avoid direct discharges of manure from pig production and thus reduce river pollution. The potential for recycling manure is larger in cereal production than in other crop species. Our results can help to identify effective solutions for coupling crop and livestock production in the Yangtze basin.

Nitrogen budgets for freshwater aquaculture and mariculture in a large tropical island - A case study for Hainan Island 1998-2018.

Nitrogen is an essential nutrient in aquaculture. It is also an important factor in coastal and river eutrophication. We present an island-scale model to study the nitrogen flows in different aquaculture systems in Hainan Island during 1998-2018. The result indicated that nitrogen losses associated with pond sludge, wastewater discharge and gaseous emission increased by a factor of 1.4, 4.6 and 3.2, respectively. Sludge and wastewater account for 84% of the total losses to the environment. During the past 20 years, aquacultural yields and the nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) improved considerably in Hainan Island. Nevertheless, nitrogen losses to the environment increased significantly as well, with negative effects for local ecosystems. In the future, sustainable aquacultural practices are needed to improve NUE and to reduce nitrogen losses to the environment.

Past and future pesticide losses to Chinese waters under socioeconomic development and climate change.

Increasing pesticide use pollutes Chinese surface waters. Pesticides often enter waters through surface runoff from agricultural fields. This occurs especially during heavy rainfall events. Socio-economic development and climate change may accelerate future loss of pesticides to surface waters due to increasing food production and rainfall events. The main objective of this study is to model past and future pesticide losses to Chinese waters under socio-economic development and climate change. To this end, we developed a pesticide model with local information to quantify the potential pesticide runoff from near-stream agriculture to surface waters after heavy rainfall. We project future trends in potential pesticide runoff. For this, we developed three scenarios: Sustainability, "Middle of the Road" and Economy-first. These scenarios are based on combined Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. We identified hotspots with high potential pesticide runoff. The results show that the potential pesticide runoff increased by 45% from 2000 to 2010, nationally. Over 50% of the national pesticide runoff in 2000 was in five provinces. Over 60% of the Chinese population lived in pesticide polluted hotspots in 2000. For the future, trends differ among scenarios and years. The largest increase is projected for the Economy-first scenario, where the potential pesticide runoff is projected to increase by 85% between 2010 and 2099. Future pesticide pollution hotspots are projected to concentrate in the south and south-east of China. This is the net-effect of high pesticide application, intensive crop production and high precipitation due to climate change. In our scenarios, 58%-84% of the population is projected to live in pesticide polluted hotspots from 2050 onwards. These projections can support the development of regional management strategies to control pesticide pollution in waters in the future.

Future microplastics in the Black Sea: River exports and reduction options for zero pollution.

The Black Sea receives increasing amounts of microplastics from rivers. In this study, we explore options to reduce future river export of microplastics to the Black Sea. We develop five scenarios with different reduction options and implement them to a Model to Assess River Inputs of pollutaNts to seA (MARINA-Global) for 107 sub-basins. Today, European rivers draining into the Black Sea export over half of the total microplastics. In 2050, Asian rivers draining into the sea will be responsible for 34-46% of microplastic pollution. Implemented advanced treatment will reduce point-source pollution. Reduced consumption or more collection of plastics will reduce 40% of microplastics in the sea by 2050. In the optimistic future, sea pollution is 84% lower than today when the abovementioned reduction options are combined. Reduction options affect the share of pollution sources. Our insights could support environmental policies for a zero pollution future of the Black Sea.

Accounting for interactions between Sustainable Development Goals is essential for water pollution control in China.

Meeting the United Nations' (UN's) 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has become a worldwide mission. How these SDGs interrelate, however, is not well known. We assess the interactions between SDGs for the case of water pollution by nutrients in China. The results show 319 interactions between SDGs for clean water (SDGs 6 and 14) and other SDGs, of which 286 are positive (synergies) and 33 are negative (tradeoffs) interactions. We analyze six scenarios in China accounting for the cobenefits of water pollution control using a large-scale water quality model. We consider scenarios that benefit from synergies and avoid tradeoffs. Our results show that effective pollution control requires accounting for the interactions between SDGs. For instance, combining improved nutrient management, efficient food consumption, and climate mitigation is effective for simultaneously meeting SDGs 6 and 14 as well as other SDGs for food, cities and climate. Our study serves as an example of assessing SDG interactions in environmental policies in China as well as in other regions of the world.