Development of interpretable machine learning models to predict in-hospital prognosis of acute heart failure patients.

AIMS: In recent years, there has been remarkable development in machine learning (ML) models, showing a trend towards high prediction performance. ML models with high prediction performance often become structurally complex and are frequently perceived as black boxes, hindering intuitive interpretation of the prediction results. We aimed to develop ML models with high prediction performance, interpretability, and superior risk stratification to predict in-hospital mortality and worsening heart failure (WHF) in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, which enrolled 4056 patients with AHF, we developed prediction models for in-hospital mortality and WHF using information obtained on the first day of admission (demographics, physical examination, blood test results, etc.). After excluding 16 patients who died on the first or second day of admission, the original dataset (n = 4040) was split 4:1 into training (n = 3232) and test datasets (n = 808). Based on the training dataset, we developed three types of prediction models: (i) the classification and regression trees (CART) model; (ii) the random forest (RF) model; and (iii) the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model. The performance of each model was evaluated using the test dataset, based on metrics including sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier score, and calibration slope. For the complex structure of the XGBoost model, we performed SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, classifying patients into interpretable clusters. In the original dataset, the proportion of females was 44.8% (1809/4040), and the average age was 77.9 ± 12.0. The in-hospital mortality rate was 6.3% (255/4040) and the WHF rate was 22.3% (900/4040) in the total study population. In the in-hospital mortality prediction, the AUC for the XGBoost model was 0.816 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.815-0.818], surpassing the AUC values for the CART model (0.683, 95% CI: 0.680-0.685) and the RF model (0.755, 95% CI: 0.753-0.757). Similarly, in the WHF prediction, the AUC for the XGBoost model was 0.766 (95% CI: 0.765-0.768), outperforming the AUC values for the CART model (0.688, 95% CI: 0.686-0.689) and the RF model (0.713, 95% CI: 0.711-0.714). In the XGBoost model, interpretable clusters were formed, and the rates of in-hospital mortality and WHF were similar among each cluster in both the training and test datasets. CONCLUSIONS: The XGBoost models with SHAP analysis provide high prediction performance, interpretability, and reproducible risk stratification for in-hospital mortality and WHF for patients with AHF.

Prognostic value of E/e' ratio and its change over time in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction in the reperfusion era.

BACKGROUND: The ratio of early diastolic mitral inflow velocity to mitral annular velocity (E/e') is a prognostic factor in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). However, data are lacking on long-term outcomes and longitudinal changes in E/e' in patients with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in the reperfusion era. METHODS: This is a pre-specified echocardiographic substudy of a randomized controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of beta-blockers in STEMI patients with LVEF ≥40 % after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Patients were divided into 2 groups according to E/e' at discharge: ≤14 (normal E/e' group) or > 14 (high E/e' group). The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction, stroke, acute coronary syndrome, and heart failure hospitalization. We also assessed longitudinal changes in E/e' and conducted a landmark analysis using E/e' at 1 year after STEMI. RESULTS: There were 173 and 38 patients in the normal and high E/e' groups, respectively. During a median follow-up of 3.9 years, the primary outcome occurred in 19 patients (11.0 %) and 10 patients (26.3 %) in the normal and high E/e' groups, respectively. The cumulative incidence of the primary outcome was higher in the high E/e' group than in the normal E/e' group (21.9 % vs. 7.1 % at 3 years; log-rank p = 0.013). E/e' in the high E/e' group decreased over time (p < 0.001), but remained higher than in the normal E/e' group at 1 year after STEMI (13.7 ±â€¯5.3 vs. 8.6 ±â€¯2.3, p < 0.001). E/e' > 14 at 1 year was also associated with poor outcomes (log-rank p = 0.008). A sensitivity analysis using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models yielded consistent results. CONCLUSION: High E/e' at discharge is associated with poor long-term outcomes in STEMI patients with preserved LVEF after primary PCI, which may be explained by persistent high E/e' late after STEMI.

The characteristics and outcomes in patients with acute heart failure who used tolvaptan: from KCHF registry.

AIMS: The use of tolvaptan is increasing in clinical practice in Japan. However, the characteristics of patients who used tolvaptan and the timing of its use in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) are not fully elucidated. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among consecutive 4056 patients in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, we analysed 3802 patients after excluding patients on dialysis, prior or unknown tolvaptan use at admission, and unknown timing of tolvaptan use, and we divided them into two groups: tolvaptan use (N = 773) and no tolvaptan use (N = 3029). The prevalence of tolvaptan use varied widely from 48.7% to 0% across the participating centres. Factors independently associated with tolvaptan use were diabetes, poor medical adherence, oedema, pleural effusion, hyponatraemia, estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 , moderate/severe tricuspid regurgitation, dobutamine infusion within 24 h, and additional inotropes infusion beyond 24 h after admission. The mortality rate at 90 days after admission was significantly higher in the tolvaptan use group than in the no tolvaptan use group (14.3% vs. 8.6%, P = 0.049). However, after adjustment, the excess mortality risk of tolvaptan use relative to no tolvaptan use was no longer significant (hazard ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval = 0.77-3.02, P = 0.22). Patients with tolvaptan use had a longer hospital stay [median (interquartile range): 22 (15-34) days vs. 15 (11-21) days, P < 0.0001] and a higher prevalence of worsening renal failure (47.0% vs. 31.8%, P < 0.0001) and worsening heart failure (24.8% vs. 14.4%, P < 0.0001) than those without. CONCLUSIONS: AHF patients with tolvaptan use had more congestive status with poorer in-hospital outcomes and higher short-term mortality than those without tolvaptan use. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02334891 (NCT02334891) and https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000017241 (UMIN000015238).

Weight loss during follow-up in patients with acute heart failure: From the KCHF registry.

BACKGROUNDS: The prognostic implication of weight loss after discharge from acute heart failure (AHF) remains unclear. We sought to investigate the association of weight loss between discharge and 6-month visit with subsequent clinical outcomes in patients with AHF. METHODS: We analyzed 686 patients with AHF in the prospective longitudinal follow-up study derived from the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, and divided them into 2 groups based on the weight loss at 6-month index visit. We defined the weight loss as ≥ 5% decrease in body weight from discharge to 6-month index visit. RESULTS: There were 90 patients (13.1%) with a weight loss at 6-month visit. Patients in the weight loss group compared with those in the no weight loss group had higher body weight at discharge and lower body weight at 6-mont visit. Patients in the weight loss group had a lower systolic blood pressure, higher brain-type natriuretic peptide, lower serum albumin, lower hemoglobin, higher prevalence of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction at 6-month visit, and a lower prescription rate of inhibitors of renin-angiotensin system than those in the no weight loss group. The cumulative 6-month incidence of all-cause death was significantly higher in the weight loss group than in the no weight loss group (14.2% and 4.3%, log-rank P<0.001). The excess adjusted risk of the weight loss group relative to the no weight loss group remained significant for all-cause death (HR 2.39, 95%CI 1.01-5.65, P = 0.048). CONCLUSION: Body weight loss of ≥5% at 6-month visit after discharge was associated with subsequent all-cause death in patients with AHF.

Association between changes in loop diuretic dose and outcomes in acute heart failure.

AIMS: Little is known about the association between the starting of or dose changes in loop diuretics during acute heart failure (AHF) hospitalization and post-discharge outcomes. We investigated the clinical impact of starting loop diuretics and changing the loop diuretics dose during hospitalization on post-discharge outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: From the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, 3665 consecutive patients hospitalized for HF and discharged alive were included in this study. We analysed 1906 patients without loop diuretics on admission and were discharged alive and 1759 patients who received loop diuretics on admission and were discharged alive. The primary outcome measure was all-cause death. Of the 1906 patients without loop diuretics on admission, 1366 (71.7%) patients started loop diuretics during the index AHF hospitalization. Starting loop diuretics was not associated with lower post-discharge mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-1.25]. Of the 1759 patients who received loop diuretics on admission, loop diuretic dose was decreased in 23.8%, unchanged in 44.6%, and increased in 31.6% of the patients. Changes in the dose at discharge compared with no change in dose were not associated with lower risk of post-discharge mortality (decrease relative to no change: adjusted HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.76-1.28; increase relative to no change: adjusted HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.78-1.27). Compared with no loop diuretics at discharge, a loop diuretics dose of ≥80 mg at discharge was associated with higher post-discharge mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AHF, we found no association between the starting of loop diuretics and post-discharge outcomes and between dose changes and post-discharge outcomes.

Tricuspid regurgitation in elderly patients with acute heart failure: insights from the KCHF registry.

AIMS: Several studies demonstrated that tricuspid regurgitation (TR) is associated with poor clinical outcomes. However, data on patients with TR who experienced acute heart failure (AHF) remains scarce. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the association between TR and clinical outcomes in patients admitted with AHF, using a large-scale Japanese AHF registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: The current study population consisted of 3735 hospitalized patients due to AHF in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure (KCHF) registry. TR grades were assessed according to the routine clinical practice at each participating centre. We compared the baseline characteristics and outcomes according to the severity of TR. The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcome was hospitalization for heart failure (HF). The median age of the entire study population was 80 (interquartile range: 72-86) years. One thousand two hundred five patients (32.3%) had no TR, while mild, moderate, and severe TR was found in 1537 patients (41.2%), 776 patients (20.8%), and 217 patients (5.8%), respectively. Pulmonary hypertension, significant mitral regurgitation, and atrial fibrillation/flutter were strongly associated with the development of moderate/severe of TR, while left ventricular ejection fraction <50% was inversely associated with it. Among 993 patients with moderate/severe TR, the number of patients who underwent surgical intervention for TR within 1 year was only 13 (1.3%). The median follow-up duration was 475 (interquartile range: 365-653) days with 94.0% follow-up at 1 year. As the TR severity increased, the cumulative 1 year incidence of all-cause death and HF admission proportionally increased ([14.8%, 20.3%, 23.4%, 27.0%] and [18.9%, 23.0%, 28.5%, 28.4%] in no, mild, moderate, and severe TR, respectively). Compared with no TR, the adjusted risks of patients with mild, moderate, and severe TR were significant for all-cause death (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.20 [1.00-1.43], P = 0.0498, 1.32 [1.07-1.62], P = 0.009, and 1.35 [1.00-1.83], P = 0.049, respectively), while those were not significant for hospitalization for HF (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.16 [0.97-1.38], P = 0.10, 1.19 [0.96-1.46], P = 0.11, and 1.20 [0.87-1.65], P = 0.27, respectively). The higher adjusted HRs of all the TR grades relative to no TR were significant for all-cause death in patients aged <80 years, but not in patients aged ≥80 years with significant interaction. CONCLUSIONS: In a large Japanese AHF population, the grades of TR could successfully stratify the risk of all-cause death. However, the association of TR with mortality was only modest and attenuated in patients aged 80 or more. Further research is warranted to evaluate how to follow up and manage TR in this elderly population.

Rationale and study design of the GOREISAN for heart failure (GOREISAN-HF) trial: A randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The decongestion strategy using loop diuretics is essential for improving signs and symptoms of heart failure (HF). However, chronic use of loop diuretics in HF has been linked to worsening renal function and adverse clinical outcomes in a dose-dependent manner. Goreisan, a traditional Japanese herbal medicine, has a long history of use in Japan for regulating body fluid homeostasis and has been recognized as causing less adverse outcomes such as dehydration in contrast to loop diuretics in clinical practice. Therefore, we designed the GOREISAN-HF trial to evaluate the long-term effects of a new decongestion strategy adding Goreisan to usual care in patients with HF and volume overload. METHODS: The GOREISAN-HF trial is an investigator-initiated, multicenter, pragmatic, randomized, comparative effectiveness trial in which we will enroll 2,192 patients hospitalized for HF at 68 hospitals in Japan. All study participants will be randomly assigned to either a decongestion strategy that adds Goreisan at a dose of 7.5 g daily on top of usual care or usual care alone. Investigators have the flexibility to change the existing diuretic regimen in both groups. The primary end point is the improvement rate of cardiac edema at 12-month follow-up, and the co-primary end point is a composite of all-cause death or hospitalization up to the end of the planned follow-up period. Secondary end points include longitudinal changes in patient-reported outcomes, loop diuretics dose, and renal function. CONCLUSIONS: The GOREISAN-HF is the first large-scale randomized pragmatic trial to assess the efficacy and safety of a new congestion control strategy adding Goreisan to usual care in patients with HF and volume overload. REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04691700.

Prognostic Value of the Severity of Clinical Congestion in Patients Hospitalized for Decompensated Heart Failure: Findings From the Japanese KCHF Registry.

BACKGROUND: Congestion is a leading cause of hospitalization and a major therapeutic target in patients with heart failure (HF). Clinical practice in Japan is characterized by a long hospital stay, which facilitates more extensive decongestion during hospitalization. We herein examined the time course and prognostic impact of clinical congestion in a large contemporary Japanese cohort of HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Peripheral edema, jugular venous pressure, and orthopnea were graded on a standardized 4-point scale (0-3) in 3787 hospitalized patients in a Japanese cohort of HF. Composite Congestion Scores (CCS) on admission and at discharge were calculated by summing individual scores. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization. The median admission CCS was 4 (interquartile range, 3-6). Overall, 255 patients died during the median hospitalization length of 16 days, and 1395 died or were hospitalized for HF over a median postdischarge follow-up of 396 days. The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary outcome increased at higher tertiles of congestion on admission (32.5%, 39.3%, and 41.0% in the mild [CCS ≤3], moderate [CCS = 4 or 5], and severe [CCS ≥6] congestion groups, respectively, log-rank P < .001). The adjusted hazard ratios of moderate and severe congestion relative to mild congestion were 1.205 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.065-1.365; P = .003) and 1.247 (95% CI, 1.103-1.410; P < .001), respectively. Among 3445 patients discharged alive, 85% had CCS of 0 (complete decongestion) and 15% had a CCS of 1 or more (residual congestion) at discharge. Although residual congestion predicted a risk of postdischarge death or HF hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.314 [1.145-1.509]; P < .001), the admission CCS correlated with the risk of postdischarge death or HF hospitalization, even in the complete decongestion group. No correlation was observed for postdischarge death or HF hospitalization between residual congestion at discharge and admission CCS (P for the interaction = .316). CONCLUSIONS: In total, 85% of patients were discharged with complete decongestion in Japanese clinical practice. Clinical congestion, on admission and at discharge, was of prognostic value. The severity of congestion on admission was predictive of adverse outcomes, even in the absence of residual congestion. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02334891 (NCT02334891) https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000017241 (UMIN000015238).

Polypharmacy and Clinical Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy is a common problem among patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) who often have multiple comorbidities. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to define the number of medications at hospital discharge and whether it is associated with clinical outcomes at 1 year. METHODS: We evaluated the number of medications in 2578 patients with ADHF who were ambulatory at hospital discharge in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure Registry and compared 1-year outcomes in 4 groups categorized by quartiles of the number of medications (quartile 1, ≤ 5; quartile 2, 6-8; quartile 3, 9-11; and quartile 4, ≥ 12). RESULTS: At hospital discharge, the median number of medications was 8 (interquartile range, 6-11) with 81.5% and 27.8% taking more than 5 and more than 10 medications, respectively. The cumulative 1-year incidence of a composite of death or rehospitalization (primary outcome measure) increased incrementally with an increasing number of medications (quartile 1, 30.8%; quartile 2, 31.6%; quartile 3, 39.7%; quartile 4, 50.3%; P < .0001). After adjusting for confounders, the excess risks of quartile 4 relative to those of quartile 1 remained significant ( P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: In the contemporary cohort of patients with ADHF in Japan, polypharmacy at hospital discharge was common, and excessive polypharmacy was associated with a higher risk of mortality and rehospitalizations within a 1-year period. Collaborative disease management programs that include a careful review of medication lists and an appropriate deprescribing protocol should be implemented for these patients.

Association of intravenous heparin administration with in-hospital clinical outcomes among hospitalized patients with acute heart failure.

BACKGROUNDS: Patients with acute heart failure (AHF) possess a high risk for thromboembolism, and thromboembolism prophylaxis using heparin has been recommended by the guidelines. METHODS: Among 4056 patients enrolled in the KCHF Registry, the current study population consisted of 2525 patients after excluding patients with acute coronary syndrome and oral anticoagulants on admission and those with mechanical circulatory supports. There were 789 patients (31%) with heparin administration within 24 h after admission, and 1736 patients (69%) without. RESULTS: The baseline characteristics included mean age: 78 ± 13 years, New York Heart Association class IV: 51%, ischemic etiology: 30%, atrial fibrillation: 31% and mean left ventricular ejection fraction: 45%. During median hospitalization length of 16 days, 161 patients had all-cause death, 34 patients developed ischemic stroke, and 48 patients developed major bleeding. Multivariable logistic regression analyses demonstrated that heparin administration compared with no heparin administration was not associated with a lower risk for all-cause death (OR: 1.39, 95%CI: 0.90-2.15; P = 0.14), nor for ischemic stroke (OR: 1.14, 95%CI: 0.53-2.43; P = 0.74), but was associated with a higher risk for major bleeding (OR: 2.88, 95%CI: 1.54-5.41; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AHF, heparin administration within 24 h after admission was not associated with a lower risk of all-cause death and ischemic stroke, but was associated with a higher risk of major bleeding during hospitalization. Our study raises questions about the routine use of heparin for thromboembolism prophylaxis in hospitalized patients with AHF. Further studies are warranted to address the utility of anticoagulant therapy in these patients.

A comparison between hospital follow-up and collaborative follow-up in patients with acute heart failure.

AIMS: There are no previous studies focusing on collaborative follow-ups between hospitals and clinics for patients discharged after acute heart failure (AHF) in Japan. The purpose of this study was to determine the status of collaboration between hospitals and clinics for patients with AHF in Japan and to compare patient characteristics and clinical outcomes using a large Japanese observational database. METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 4056 consecutive patients hospitalized for AHF in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, we analysed 2862 patients discharged to go home, who were divided into 1674 patients (58.5%) followed up at hospitals with index hospitalization (hospital follow-up group) and 1188 (41.5%) followed up in a collaborative fashion with clinics or other general hospitals (collaborative follow-up group). The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization within 1 year after discharge. Previous hospitalization for HF and length of hospital stay longer than 15 days were associated with hospital follow-up. Conversely, ≥80 years of age, hypertension, and cognitive dysfunction were associated with collaborative follow-up. The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary outcome, all cause death, and cardiovascular death were similar between the hospital and collaborative follow-up groups (31.6% vs. 29.6%, P = 0.51, 13.1% vs, 13.9%, P = 0.35, 8.4% vs. 8.2%, P = 0.96). Even after adjusting for confounders, the difference in risk for patients in the hospital follow-up group relative to those in the collaborative follow-up group remained insignificant for the primary outcome, all-cause death, and cardiovascular death (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.97-1.27, P = 0.14, HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.91-1.33, P = 0.33, HR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.87-1.05, P = 0.33). The cumulative 1-year incidence of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up group (25.5% vs. 21.3%, P = 0.02). The risk of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up group (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.01-1.39, P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In patients hospitalized for AHF, 41.5% received collaborative follow-up after discharge. The risk of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up, although risk of the primary outcome, all-cause death, and cardiovascular death were similar between groups.

Stroke Risk Stratification With the CHADS2 Score in Patients Without Atrial Fibrillation Who Underwent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

The clinical significance of the CHADS2 score remains unclear in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) without atrial fibrillation (AF). Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between the CHADS2 score and the long-term risk of ischemic stroke and its severity in patients with CAD with and without AF. Using the CREDO (Coronary Revascularization Demonstrating Outcome study)-Kyoto Registry Cohort-3, the present study population consisted of 11,516 patients with CAD who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention without oral anticoagulants at discharge. We divided the patients into 2 groups according to the presence (n = 721) or absence (n = 10,795) of AF. As the CHADS2 score increased from 0 or 1 to 6, the cumulative 5-year incidence of ischemic stroke incrementally increased from 2.1% to 17.1% in patients without AF and from 4.2% to 40.7% in patients with AF. The cumulative 5-year incidence of ischemic stroke in patients without AF and a CHADS2 score of 2 were numerically comparable to that in patients with AF and a CHADS2 score of 1 (3.4% and 3.7%). In the 423 patients who developed ischemic stroke, the modified Rankin Scale score was not significantly different between patients with and without AF (p for trend = 0.12). In patients with and without AF, the increase in the CHADS2 score was significantly associated with the greater prevalence of higher modified Rankin Scale scores (p for trend = 0.03 and <0.001, respectively). An increasing CHADS2 score was associated with an incrementally increased risk for ischemic stroke and greater severity of ischemic stroke in patients with and without AF.

A case of systemic sclerosis with worsened subclinical left ventricular systolic dysfunction after pacemaker implantation.

A 58-year-old man suffering from systemic sclerosis was admitted to our hospital because of heart failure. He developed atrioventricular block 4 months previously and had a pacemaker implanted, after which left ventricular wall motion markedly worsened. The global longitudinal strain was already decreased before the onset of atrioventricular block, although the left ventricular ejection fraction was normal. Right ventricular pacing was suspected to have caused overt left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Therefore, right ventricular pacing was upgraded to cardiac resynchronization therapy. After this change, the left ventricular ejection fraction improved to almost normal, but global longitudinal strain remained decreased. The findings in our case suggest that some patients with systemic sclerosis already have subclinical left ventricular systolic dysfunction before the onset of atrioventricular block. Additionally, right ventricular pacing may cause further deterioration of left ventricular systolic function and heart failure. Learning objective: The possibility of subclinical left ventricular systolic dysfunction associated with systemic sclerosis should be considered when implanting a pacemaker. Speckle-tracking echocardiography may also be useful in the management of patients with systemic sclerosis.

Risk stratification of patients with cardiac sarcoidosis: the ILLUMINATE-CS registry.

AIMS: This study evaluated the prognosis and prognostic factors of patients with cardiac sarcoidosis (CS), an underdiagnosed disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients from a retrospective multicentre registry, diagnosed with CS between 2001 and 2017 based on the 2016 Japanese Circulation Society or 2014 Heart Rhythm Society criteria, were included. The primary endpoint was a composite of all-cause death, hospitalization for heart failure, and documented fatal ventricular arrhythmia events (FVAE), each constituting exploratory endpoints. Among 512 registered patients, 148 combined events (56 heart failure hospitalizations, 99 documented FVAE, and 49 all-cause deaths) were observed during a median follow-up of 1042 (interquartile range: 518-1917) days. The 10-year estimated event rates for the primary endpoint, all-cause death, heart failure hospitalizations, and FVAE were 48.1, 18.0, 21.1, and 31.9%, respectively. On multivariable Cox regression, a history of ventricular tachycardia (VT) or fibrillation [hazard ratio (HR) 2.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.59-4.00, P < 0.001], log-transformed brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.07-1.53, P = 0.008), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (HR 0.94 per 5% increase, 95% CI 0.88-1.00, P = 0.046), and post-diagnosis radiofrequency ablation for VT (HR 2.65, 95% CI 1.02-6.86, P = 0.045) independently predicted the primary endpoint. CONCLUSION: Although mortality is relatively low in CS, adverse events are common, mainly due to FVAE. Patients with low LVEF, with high BNP levels, with VT/fibrillation history, and requiring ablation to treat VT are at high risk.

Insomnia in patients with acute heart failure: from the KCHF registry.

AIMS: Insomnia is a known risk factor for heart failure (HF) and a predictor of cardiac events in HF patients, but the clinical significance of insomnia in patients with acute HF (AHF) is not adequately evaluated. This study aimed to investigate the association between insomnia and subsequent clinical outcomes in patients with AHF. METHODS: From the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, consecutive 3414 patients hospitalized for HF who were discharged alive were divided into the 2 groups at discharge: insomnia group and non-insomnia group. We compared baseline characteristics and 1 year clinical outcomes according to the presence of insomnia. The primary outcome measure was all-cause death. RESULTS: There were 330 patients (9.7%) and 3084 patients (90.3%) with and without insomnia, respectively. In the multivariable logistic regression analysis, brain-type natriuretic peptide above median value at discharge (OR = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.08-2.10, P = 0.02) and the presence of oedema at discharge (OR = 4.23, 95% CI = 2.95-6.07, P < 0.001) were positively associated with insomnia at discharge, whereas diuretics at discharge (OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.39-0.90, P = 0.01) were negatively associated with insomnia at discharge. The cumulative 1 year incidence of all-cause death was significantly higher in the insomnia group than in the non-insomnia group (25.1% vs. 16.2%, P < 0.001). Even after adjusting the confounders, the higher mortality risk of patients with insomnia relative to those without insomnia remained significant (HR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.24-1.94; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with insomnia at discharge were associated with a higher risk of mortality than those without insomnia at discharge.

Appetite loss at discharge from acute decompensated heart failure: Observation from KCHF registry.

OBJECTIVE: The complex link between nutritional status, protein and lipid synthesis, and immunity plays an important prognostic role in patients with heart failure. However, the association between appetite loss at discharge and long-term outcome remains unclear. METHODS: The Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry is a prospective cohort study that enrolled consecutive patients hospitalized for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in Japan. We assessed 3528 patients alive at discharge, and for whom appetite and follow-up data were available. We compared one-year clinical outcomes in patients with and without appetite loss at discharge. RESULTS: In the multivariable logistic regression analysis using 19 clinical and laboratory factors with P value < 0.1 by univariate analysis, BMI < 22 kg/m2 (odds ratio (OR): 1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-2.24, P = 0.01), CRP >1.0mg/dL (OR: 1.49, 95%CI: 1.04-2.14, P = 0.03), and presence of edema at discharge (OR: 4.30, 95%CI: 2.99-6.22, P<0.001) were associated with an increased risk of appetite loss at discharge, whereas ambulatory status (OR: 0.57, 95%CI: 0.39-0.83, P = 0.004) and the use of ACE-I/ARB (OR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.50-0.98, P = 0.04) were related to a decreased risk in the presence of appetite loss. The cumulative 1-year incidence of all-cause death (primary outcome measure) was significantly higher in patients with appetite loss than in those without appetite loss (31.0% vs. 15.0%, P<0.001). The excess adjusted risk of appetite loss relative to no appetite loss remained significant for all-cause death (hazard ratio (HR): 1.63, 95%CI: 1.29-2.07, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Loss of appetite at discharge was associated with worse 1-year mortality in patients with ADHF. Appetite is a simple, reliable, and useful subjective marker for risk stratification of patients with ADHF.

Public assistance in patients with acute heart failure: a report from the KCHF registry.

AIMS: There is a scarcity of data on the post-discharge prognosis in acute heart failure (AHF) patients with a low-income but receiving public assistance. The study sought to evaluate the differences in the clinical characteristics and outcomes between AHF patients receiving public assistance and those not receiving public assistance. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry was a physician-initiated, prospective, observational, multicentre cohort study enrolling 4056 consecutive patients who were hospitalized due to AHF for the first time between October 2014 and March 2016. The present study population consisted of 3728 patients who were discharged alive from the index AHF hospitalization. We divided the patients into two groups, those receiving public assistance and those not receiving public assistance. After assessing the proportional hazard assumption of public assistance as a variable, we constructed multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to estimate the risk of the public assistance group relative to the no public assistance group. There were 218 patients (5.8%) receiving public assistance and 3510 (94%) not receiving public assistance. Patients in the public assistance group were younger, more frequently had chronic coronary artery disease, previous heart failure hospitalizations, current smoking, poor medical adherence, living alone, no occupation, and a lower left ventricular ejection fraction than those in the no public assistance group. During a median follow-up of 470 days, the cumulative 1 year incidences of all-cause death and heart failure hospitalizations after discharge did not differ between the public assistance group and no public assistance group (13.3% vs. 17.4%, P = 0.10, and 28.3% vs. 23.8%, P = 0.25, respectively). After adjusting for the confounders, the risk of the public assistance group relative to the no public assistance group remained insignificant for all-cause death [hazard ratio (HR), 0.97; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.69-1.32; P = 0.84]. Even after taking into account the competing risk of all-cause death, the adjusted risk within 180 days in the public assistance group relative to the no public assistance group remained insignificant for heart failure hospitalizations (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.64-1.34; P = 0.69), while the adjusted risk beyond 180 days was significant (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.07-2.29; P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The AHF patients receiving public assistance as compared with those not receiving public assistance had no significant excess risk for all-cause death at 1 year after discharge or a heart failure hospitalization within 180 days after discharge, while they did have a significant excess risk for heart failure hospitalizations beyond 180 days after discharge. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02334891 (NCT02334891) and https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000017241 (UMIN000015238).

Left atrial reverse remodeling improves risk stratification in patients with heart failure with recovered ejection fraction.

We aimed to investigate the relationship between left atrial (LA) reverse remodeling and prognosis of heart failure (HF) with recovered ejection fraction (EF) (HFrecEF). Among 1,246 patients with acute heart failure enrolled in the prospective longitudinal follow-up study, 397 patients with HF with mildly-reduced EF and with reduced EF at discharge were analyzed. Echocardiography was performed during the index hospitalization and at the 6-month follow-up after discharge. They were divided into non-HFrecEF (n = 227) and HFrecEF (n = 170) groups. The primary outcome measure was a composite of all-cause death or hospitalization for HF. The cumulative 180-day incidence of the primary outcome measure after follow-up echocardiography was significantly lower in the HFrecEF group than in the non-HFrecEF group (8.9% versus 23.4%, log-rank P = 0.0002). LA reverse remodeling was associated with a lower cumulative 6-month incidence of the primary outcome measure in the HFrecEF group (4.7% versus 18.0%; HR: 0.27, 95%CI: 0.09-0.79, P = 0.01), but not in the non-HFrecEF group (24.4% versus 22.6%; HR: 1.13, 95%CI: 0.65-1.96, P = 0.28) with a significant LA reverse remodeling-by-HFrecEF interaction (P for interaction = 0.02). Combination of left ventricular and atrial reverse remodeling may help in improving HF risk stratification.