ABSTRACT
Exploring the mismatch between supply and demand (SD) for carbon sequestration services (CSS) is essential for achieving the "double carbon" goal. However, more studies are needed on the traits of the spatial mismatch between SD in mountainous cities. We used the CASA model and the IPCC emission factor approach to address this issue and quantify the SD of CSS in Chongqing. Second, we established a matching relationship model for the SD of CSS in Chongqing. Finally, we applied the Structural Equation Model with the Partial Dependence Plots model to reveal the influencing factors and internal mechanisms of spatial mismatch between the SD of CSS in Chongqing. The outcomes confirmed a decrease in fashion in the total supply of CSS in Chongqing and growth in fashion in general demand from 2000 to 2020. The SD mismatch was mainly concentrated inside the central city and other built-up areas. The SD mismatch area had increased by 390%, indicating a continuous upward trend. In exploring the factors influencing the mismatch between the SD of CSS in Chongqing, supply is mainly positively influenced by NDVI, and demand and supply-demand relationships are influenced by population density and LUCC. We proposed policy suggestions to alleviate the spatial mismatch and practical significance for achieving the "double carbon" goal and promoting sustainable development.